If elected to a first term, will Kerry trigger a world war?

heartsurgeon

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2001
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I have always believed that Bin Laden is actually following Lenin's lead...he wants to take over Saudi Arabia, and he's using an ideologic argument to do it...

Bin Laden wanted the "infidel" i.e., U.S. troops out of Saudi Arabia...and guess what, it's already happened..the troops have been relocated to Iraq and Qatar, and Kuwait. Having U.S. troops out of Saudi Arabia is clearly a pre-condition to overthrowning the current goverment.

As it is, many analysts suggest that the current Saudi regime has 2 years left before they are "toppled" and replaced by something else (Al Qaeda perhaps..)

A Kerry presidency in my opinion would clearly include a rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, and would also "embolden" Al Qaeda in their belief that political pressure can force the U.S. military posture to change.

U.S. troops leave Iraq, and Al Qaeda, with the support and encouragement of Iran, reloactes enmass to Iraq, and seizes control. This is turn triggers a overthrow of the Saudi goverment, and now Bin Laden controls Saudi oil, Iraqi Oil, and works in concert with Iran. Tremendous pressure comes to bear on Kuwait Qatar, and other smaller Arab oil nations to fall into line behind Bin Laden, or face insurgency and overthrow, knowing that U.S. troops will not be redeployed to the middle east by Kerry.

Now, the oil production of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, etc..is used to hobble the "western" economies.

Oil prices skyrocket, the Dow plummets, industrial output world wide falls, capital markets contract, the world wide recession heats up..and ultimately a world wide depression starts. Iran inspite of U.N "consternation" proceeds with development of nuclear weapons. Al Qaeda gains access to nuclear weapons. Israel is attacked. Israel responds with nuclear retaliation.
midddle eastern oil output essentially stops.


hmmmm
 

XZeroII

Lifer
Jun 30, 2001
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Nice LAN. Not high end computers, but it's nice when everyone has one and you don't have to share.
 

AcidicFury

Golden Member
May 7, 2004
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First of all, Kerry has said repeatedly that he won't take troops out of Iraq, and second of all, the House of Saud is so comfortable with money and power that they won't give up Saudi Arabia.
 

Kipper

Diamond Member
Feb 18, 2000
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The problem with this theory is that terrorists are somewhat like IO's in that legitimate (or at least legitimate-seeming) governments do not officially acknowledge their presence or hand over power directly to them. This means that Al-Qaeda will never directly control a government at the international level - it may "persuade" by threats or other methods, but it can never establish itself as a sovereign government and take control in that respect...they do NOT play by the games of international politics and therefore will never really be significant players (as opposed to if they had a direct voice) in intra-national relations.
 

CaptnKirk

Lifer
Jul 25, 2002
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Domino Therory is as false with the Middle East in todays world time continium
as it was in the South East Asian interpretation 35 years ago.
They aren't looking to coalese into an Arab World Power -
they're been infighting too long tribally for that,

Each region had been invading it's neighbors and then being
repelled from within by National Insurgency since time began.
What is different this time than the countless times before ?
Just because the US in the controlling force this time,
doesn't automatically make it right just because of our Patriotism
and National Emotional involvement.
The last time it was the British, before that another country.
Next time who knows, but they are against our involvement
for any reason in that part of the world. It's not our country.
We will eventually leave and come home - 1 to 100 years,
it makes no difference, thay live there and we don't.

JUst like 'Nam 30+ years ago - we're here, and we left them over there.
 

Kibbo

Platinum Member
Jul 13, 2004
2,847
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Umm. . .

Lenin took advantage of domestic chaos that was caused by massive famine and the diffuculties within the army caused by WWI. Saudi Arabia is suffering from no such disturbance.

Also, the biggest proponant of a Pan-Arabic nation was Saddam. Losing him wouldn't fit into the plan.

Edit: Try again HS.
 

heartsurgeon

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2001
4,260
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0
I think your timeline is going too quickly as Kerry will probably only be serving one term

i believe kerry's position is to withdraw 138,000 u.s. troops within 6 months of taking office...i don't think the timeline is off at all...this could all happpen within 2-4 years.

the LAN has bee maasively updated...see below
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
126
If elected to a first term, will Kerry trigger a world war?

Sure. Just like frogs will grow wings so they don't bump their asses when they hop.
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
Originally posted by: heartsurgeon
I think your timeline is going too quickly as Kerry will probably only be serving one term

i believe kerry's position is to withdraw 138,000 u.s. troops within 6 months of taking office...i don't think the timeline is off at all...this could all happpen within 2-4 years.

the LAN has bee maasively updated...see below

What you believe is wrong (as usual) Kerrys going to increase troops.

http://antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=3189
 

heartsurgeon

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2001
4,260
0
0
Saudi Arabia is suffering from no such disturbance
This is not what i have been reading or hearing from "Saudi" experts. There is a huge dissaffected group of eductated Saudi's who are not members of the royal family. Social unrest is predicted to result in the ouster of the Saudi royals with 18-24 months acccording to these experts.

what have you read that suggests stability in the Saudi royal family and its governance?

What you believe is wrong (as usual) Kerrys going to increase troops
Mssr. Kerry had this to say about that today (perhaps you are referring to what he said last week)
Speaking to reporters from the Powell's Landing on the rim of the Grand Canyon above a mile-deep drop, Kerry also said reducing U.S. troops in Iraq significantly by next August was "an appropriate goal."
"My goal, my diplomacy, my statesmanship is to get our troops reduced in number and I believe if you do the statesmanship properly, I believe if you do the kind of alliance building that is available to us, that it's appropriate to have a goal of reducing the troops over that period of time," he said.
On that timetable, Kerry's aim would be to pull out a large number of the 138,000 U.S. troops in Iraq in the first six months of his administration.
Kerry speaks

Just keep making stuff up
No! really, I updated the LAN! Honest!
 

Todd33

Diamond Member
Oct 16, 2003
7,842
2
81
We don't own the middle east. We don't own their oil. Maybe instead of worrying who has the oil, we should be getting away from oil dependence. Maybe we should not be driving 12mpg SUVs like the gluttenes pigs we are.

This thread has nothing to do with Kerry. He is a far smarter guy than Dubyaa, nuff said.
 

Siddhartha

Lifer
Oct 17, 1999
12,505
3
81
Originally posted by: heartsurgeon
I have always believed that Bin Laden is actually following Lenin's lead...he wants to take over Saudi Arabia, and he's using an ideologic argument to do it...

Bin Laden wanted the "infidel" i.e., U.S. troops out of Saudi Arabia...and guess what, it's already happened..the troops have been relocated to Iraq and Qatar, and Kuwait. Having U.S. troops out of Saudi Arabia is clearly a pre-condition to overthrowning the current goverment.

As it is, many analysts suggest that the current Saudi regime has 2 years left before they are "toppled" and replaced by something else (Al Qaeda perhaps..)

A Kerry presidency in my opinion would clearly include a rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, and would also "embolden" Al Qaeda in their belief that political pressure can force the U.S. military posture to change.

U.S. troops leave Iraq, and Al Qaeda, with the support and encouragement of Iran, reloactes enmass to Iraq, and seizes control. This is turn triggers a overthrow of the Saudi goverment, and now Bin Laden controls Saudi oil, Iraqi Oil, and works in concert with Iran. Tremendous pressure comes to bear on Kuwait Qatar, and other smaller Arab oil nations to fall into line behind Bin Laden, or face insurgency and overthrow, knowing that U.S. troops will not be redeployed to the middle east by Kerry.

Now, the oil production of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, etc..is used to hobble the "western" economies.

Oil prices skyrocket, the Dow plummets, industrial output world wide falls, capital markets contract, the world wide recession heats up..and ultimately a world wide depression starts. Iran inspite of U.N "consternation" proceeds with development of nuclear weapons. Al Qaeda gains access to nuclear weapons. Israel is attacked. Israel responds with nuclear retaliation.
midddle eastern oil output essentially stops.


hmmmm

If Bush had concentrated on al Qaeda instead of invading Iraq and destabilizing the region....
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,685
136
Interesting, if predictable, interpretation of the evidence, HS.

Kerry's approach would involve more allied troops and fewer American troops-

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5574702/

If anything, he's not painting any rosy pictures about the withdrawal date, unlike the Bush Admin. If anything, some analysis indicates that he'll stay longer-

http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,1257429,00.html

Of course, this would mean sharing some of the business opportunities (plunder) with the Europeans, rather than funnelling it all to selected Republican Campaign contributors, maybe even cutting the Iraqis in on more of the action. Imagine that- paying Iraqi firms substantially less than their American counterparts to rebuild their own country. might even build employment, foster an actual economy, help settle some of the unrest...
 

CaptnKirk

Lifer
Jul 25, 2002
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This is not what i have been reading or hearing from "Saudi" experts

I certainly hope that your 'Saudi' contact 'Experts' are better
than the U.S. Government and Pentagons 'Iraqi' Experts, Chalabi Et Al.
 

heartsurgeon

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2001
4,260
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0
Kerry's approach would involve more allied troops and fewer American troops-
Gee...explain to me again why anyone is going to want to send troops into Iraq when we are pulling them out (Other than the Iranians!)
please name a country, and why you are sure they will send troops.

What you believe is wrong (as usual) Kerrys going to increase troops.
after you finishing reading Jhhnn's link to the MSNBC article...would you care to revise this last statement to reflect Mssr Kerry's latest nuanced position (flip/flop/flip)

This is not what i have been reading or hearing from "Saudi" experts[/l]
i am specifically refering to a 4 hour program on CSPAN entitled:
"The Hudson Institute sponsors this panel discussion on the stability of Saudi Arabia. The forum is titled: "Saudi Arabia in Crisis?""

you can actually get the video/audio from CSPAN at this link:
CSPAN VIDEO LINK

look at the 5th show listed from the top.....you can watch the entire panel discussion...it's scary.....
 

heartsurgeon

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2001
4,260
0
0
Al-Sadr is being funded by Iran apparently enough money to pay 30,000 troops.
Iran has announced to the IAEA that it is pursing "dual use" nuclear (meaning weapons)

if Kerry pulls out the troops...southern Iraq becomes part of Iran, and the oil money goes to Iran, and the nukes come online.

it's going to happen in my opinion, if kerry is in charge.
 

EDoG2K

Senior member
Aug 18, 2001
223
0
0
If BUSH gets re-elected.....

World public opinion of the US at all time lows.

Terrorism in the US at an all time high.

CA secedes from the union sparking civil war here in the states.


God I hope he loses.
 

Red Dawn

Elite Member
Jun 4, 2001
57,529
3
0
Originally posted by: EDoG2K
If BUSH gets re-elected.....

World public opinion of the US at all time lows.

Terrorism in the US at an all time high.

CA secedes from the union sparking civil war here in the states.


God I hope he loses.
You sound as nutty as HS.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,685
136
So, uhh, do you actually read links, HS? In my first, above, Kerry makes it clear that American troop withdrawal is dependent on increased troop levels from other nations. It's a conditional, an if/then statement. As to the likelihood of it all, it's obviously not likely at all with the Bush team in charge.

As to the length of deployment of whatever troops, it's obvious that will be for several years, no matter what the current Admin claims. Given that none of the prewar allegations they made about Iraq were true, what would lead anybody to believe that their postwar claims are any more accurate?

They've also committed every blunder conceivable in terms of winning the hearts and minds of Iraqis, and will obviously continue to do so in pursuit of profit for their corporate cronies.

Generally speaking, the re-election chances of an incumbent president rest on their accomplishments in the first term. What are we presented wrt Iraq? That GWB got us stuck to the tarbaby? Pretty much, uh-huh...