If Dean blows it and ends up not being the nominee, what do you think will be his downfall?

[glenn1]

The recent polls seem to indicate that the Democratic race is getting closer, perhaps too close to call, and definitely not the Dean blowout that seemed inevitable a couple months ago.

If (and i realize that's a big if) he does end up blowing his lead and not getting the nomination, what do you think history will consider to have done him in? And any particular turning point seem to manifest itself as being where the wheels started coming off?

 

[Gaard]

If Dean blows it and ends up not being the nominee, what do you think will be his downfall?

Not disconnecting CAD's internet access.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

I posted a thread about the "January Slide". It certainly lends credence to that at this point. However, I think one can't point to any single event that may have caused this hypothetical(at this point) downfall. I could point out many tactical errors based on my opinions but it is too soon to really say if they have had an impact on dean or not. He is still quite strong nationally.

But just to toss one out - running as an "anti" can put you into a box. You put yourself in a position to be against everything otherwise it compromises your "anti" status. Tax-cuts - dean is the "anti" and the others are positioning themselves with more wiggle room. dean's latest "someday we'll look at the middle class" type tax comments don't sit well because they look like a cheap afterthought. He may have actually held those views(for middle class tax help 6-7 years down the line) before but he never expressed them because he got play from being "anti" Bush tax-cuts - but now sees that it may have limited his appeal.

IMO ofcourse

CkG

Edit - :beer: for Gaard

 

[daclayman]

gawd, but bush suxors so bad, cad. it's easy just to play everything the opposite of what he's doing and fix the 30 or less percent that was close to ballpark. this is becoming the biggest joke i've ever been told, only it's not a joke. this is costing me money and US citizens their lives. do you not have a conscience, cad? i say let's dump the fool and hire any old 'tax-n-spend' candidate that steps up to the plate and life for the majority of americans will be better.

:beer:

edit: i was gonna capitalize as the current administration knows how to that... but the us becomes US

 

[Witling]

If Dean doesn't make it, I'll blame the political system. A system under which we spent $5 million finding out a guy got a blow job. I think the electorate is not very realistic about human virtues and shortcomings. That leads to two whole industries, one Republican and one Democratic, that tell these guys what to wear, how to brush their teeth, and most of all, to say nothing of substance. "I'm for good education and jobs. Let's trim the fat out of the budget."

EDITED: Oh yes, I'm revealing my age. I forgot to add, "And I'm for strong national security."

 

[glenn1]

If Dean doesn't make it, I'll blame the political system.

Whitling, would you mind explaining this in further detail? I'm not sure if i understand what you mean when you say the "political system" would be the culprit if Dean doesn't get the nod.

 

[Witling]

The "Political System:" We (and I mean all of us) have supported a news industry that delights and profits from human imperfection. I mean, we're down to the point where some experimentation with marijuan has to be passed off with some stupid phrase like, "I never inhaled." Jimmy Carter, replied to a question that "He had lusted in his heart." I don't remember the question, but his response was very biblical and, in my opinion, honest. Do you really want someone in office who has never thought, "I'd sure like to get X in bed." Maybe George Bush did get arrested for drunk driving. He's certainly gone past that. Dean filled out an affidavit saying, in effect, "Hey, he's a nice guy. I never saw him beat anyone." and it's a national story? The guy I really felt sorry for was President Carter. He had hemmeroids operated on while he was in office. Cheeeze, is this national news. Pictures at 11. We demand too much out of these people and ignore genuine administrative talent.

 

[glenn1]

The "Political System:" We (and I mean all of us) have supported a news industry that delights and profits from human imperfection. I mean, we're down to the point where some experimentation with marijuan has to be passed off with some stupid phrase like, "I never inhaled." Jimmy Carter, replied to a question that "He had lusted in his heart." I don't remember the question, but his response was very biblical and, in my opinion, honest. Do you really want someone in office who has never thought, "I'd sure like to get X in bed." Maybe George Bush did get arrested for drunk driving. He's certainly gone past that. Dean filled out an affidavit saying, in effect, "Hey, he's a nice guy. I never saw him beat anyone." and it's a national story? The guy I really felt sorry for was President Carter. He had hemmeroids operated on while he was in office. Cheeeze, is this national news. Pictures at 11. We demand too much out of these people and ignore genuine administrative talent.

But that's sort of what the whole point of the political process is. Americans, through their votes, decide which person they want to fill a particular position. There isn't a "right" or a "wrong" person for a particular position whether you agree with the electorate's choice or not, or whether you agree with their reasons for choosing the way they did. Part of the deal in a democracy is accepting the results even if you believe the wrong choice was made, because the voters' choice by definition is the right choice.

 

[Witling]

Second byte (and yes, I know how to spell "bite"). There has been no post yet following my 9:26 post but there may be one in the works. I should have mentioned Lyndon Baines Johnson and Richard Nixon. Both very flawed humans, but both very skilled politicians who accomplished much for the U.S. -- and made some mistakes.

 

[Witling]

Glenn, in a way I agree with you and in a way I don't. (God, what I'd give for a one-handed lawyer!). The people who get elected are an expression of the popular will. I don't have a problem with that. What I do have is a problem with is the carefully managed appeal human nature, where some advertising shell appearance that is put up is what we vote for. In one way, it's not so bad. No chief executive runs the show by him or herself, without the input of advisors.

Don't get me started on advisors like Cheney.

 

[glenn1]

What I do have is a problem with is human nature, where some advertising shell appearance that is put up is what we vote for.

Possibly. Or perhaps a Dean loss would be a not be a reflection of a false impression of him caused by opponents' advertising, but rather a rejection of his positions by those deciding with their votes. I seem to get the impression you believe the former, i'm more inclined to believe the later. In the end, it's somewhat of an academic exercise anyway.

 

[Witling]

I couldn't have put it better myself!

 

[DealMonkey]

If Dean blows it and ends up not being the nominee, what do you think will be his downfall?

Definitely his awkward evil grinch grins. Damn, it scares the beejezus outta me when he does that.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: DealMonkey

If Dean blows it and ends up not being the nominee, what do you think will be his downfall?

Definitely his awkward evil grinch grins. Damn, it scares the beejezus outta me when he does that.

Boo Yah

Again



CkG

 

[Ferocious]

Sometimes he reminds of Martin Sheen's character in the Christopher Walken movie....."Dead Zone."

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY

Originally posted by: DealMonkey

If Dean blows it and ends up not being the nominee, what do you think will be his downfall?

Definitely his awkward evil grinch grins. Damn, it scares the beejezus outta me when he does that.

Boo Yah

Again



CkG

CAD, aren't you already married? You're so in love with the guy.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Whitling
The "Political System:" We (and I mean all of us) have supported a news industry that delights and profits from human imperfection. I mean, we're down to the point where some experimentation with marijuan has to be passed off with some stupid phrase like, "I never inhaled." Jimmy Carter, replied to a question that "He had lusted in his heart." I don't remember the question, but his response was very biblical and, in my opinion, honest. Do you really want someone in office who has never thought, "I'd sure like to get X in bed." Maybe George Bush did get arrested for drunk driving. He's certainly gone past that. Dean filled out an affidavit saying, in effect, "Hey, he's a nice guy. I never saw him beat anyone." and it's a national story? The guy I really felt sorry for was President Carter. He had hemmeroids operated on while he was in office. Cheeeze, is this national news. Pictures at 11. We demand too much out of these people and ignore genuine administrative talent.

After the whole Clinton nooky under the desk charade I don't think such bahooay stories will carry any weight.

 

[Ferocious]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY

Originally posted by: DealMonkey

If Dean blows it and ends up not being the nominee, what do you think will be his downfall?

Definitely his awkward evil grinch grins. Damn, it scares the beejezus outta me when he does that.

Boo Yah

Again



CkG

CAD, aren't you already married? You're so in love with the guy.

HAHAHAHA that's a funny thought.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Ferocious

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY

Originally posted by: DealMonkey

If Dean blows it and ends up not being the nominee, what do you think will be his downfall?

Definitely his awkward evil grinch grins. Damn, it scares the beejezus outta me when he does that.

Boo Yah

Again



CkG

CAD, aren't you already married? You're so in love with the guy.

HAHAHAHA that's a funny thought.

They got this report wrong too, it should read CKG criticizes Dean most:

1-16-2004 Study: Network News Criticizes Dean Most

Howard Dean received significantly more criticism on network newscasts than the other Democratic presidential contenders, who were the subjects of more favorable coverage, according to a study released Thursday.

More than three-quarters of the coverage of Dean's foes by the nightly news programs was favorable, while a majority of attention to Dean was negative, the Center for Media and Public Affairs found.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wow, great job CAD, it's rubbed off quite well.

 

[chowderhead]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
They got this report wrong too, it should read CKG criticizes Dean most:

1-16-2004 Study: Network News Criticizes Dean Most

Howard Dean received significantly more criticism on network newscasts than the other Democratic presidential contenders, who were the subjects of more favorable coverage, according to a study released Thursday.

More than three-quarters of the coverage of Dean's foes by the nightly news programs was favorable, while a majority of attention to Dean was negative, the Center for Media and Public Affairs found.

Take your pick.
I think first that Dean has said a lot of dumb things. Democratic primary/Caucus voters are reevaluating their positions and trying to decide who they feel has the best chance to defeat GWB. The race generally tightens as it gets closer to election day. Dean is running against the Democratic establishment. He is running in a crowded field where 30% of the vote may win.

Still, having said that, I feel that the media is partially the reason. THE MEDIA WANTS A HORSERACE. It drives the ratings higher. Forget issues, the media loves talking about strategies, polls and the type of "gotcha" politics that people tell politicans/pollsters that they dislike. BS. Negative ads are prevalent because they work. The media loves to build someone up only to tear them down. Proclaim him the frontrunner and root with glee for him to falter.

Dean is not my first choice and I think he peaked too soon.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: chowderhead

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
They got this report wrong too, it should read CKG criticizes Dean most:

1-16-2004 Study: Network News Criticizes Dean Most

Howard Dean received significantly more criticism on network newscasts than the other Democratic presidential contenders, who were the subjects of more favorable coverage, according to a study released Thursday.

More than three-quarters of the coverage of Dean's foes by the nightly news programs was favorable, while a majority of attention to Dean was negative, the Center for Media and Public Affairs found.

Take your pick.
I think first that Dean has said a lot of dumb things. Democratic primary/Caucus voters are reevaluating their positions and trying to decide who they feel has the best chance to defeat GWB. The race generally tightens as it gets closer to election day. Dean is running against the Democratic establishment. He is running in a crowded field where 30% of the vote may win.

Still, having said that, I feel that the media is partially the reason. THE MEDIA WANTS A HORSERACE. It drives the ratings higher. Forget issues, the media loves talking about strategies, polls and the type of "gotcha" politics that people tell politicans/pollsters that they dislike. BS. Negative ads are prevalent because they work. The media loves to build someone up only to tear them down. Proclaim him the frontrunner and root with glee for him to falter.

Dean is not my first choice and I think he peaked too soon.

I thought CAD liked Dean, News Polls showed Kerry leading Iowa this morning.

Kerry 22%
Dean 21%
Gephardt 18%
Edwards 18%

Now they are saying it is a 4 way race too as they have let Edwards in.

Edit Hmmm - Looks like local station had the graphic backwards switching Dean and Kerry around but with the Headline the way it is can see how that can happen:

1-16-2004 Poll Finds Kerry, Edwards Surging in Iowa

A late surge by John Kerry and John Edwards has turned the two-way battle between Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt for first place into an electoral free-for-all heading into Monday's Iowa presidential caucuses.

Polls in the state suggest all four are competing for the lead within the error margins.

 

[heartsurgeon]

in my opinion, Deans biggest problem is that he is simulatneously running against Bush, and the Democrat insiders..
i think when he state the first thing he was going to do after he won the nomination, was to replace terry mccauliffe, he was a
marked man. the clinton's have their agenda, and their money, and you don't mess with the clinton's (heck! their FRIENDS end up in jail or dead....)

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: heartsurgeon
in my opinion, Deans biggest problem is that he is simulatneously running against Bush, and the Democrat insiders..
i think when he state the first thing he was going to do after he won the nomination, was to replace terry mccauliffe, he was a
marked man. the clinton's have their agenda, and their money, and you don't mess with the clinton's (heck! their FRIENDS end up in jail or dead....)

There have been political articles/interviews etc that support some of this theory.

The Dem org initially wanted to front load the process, so they could have a longer time to attack Bush and allow the primary infightig to blow over.
Everybody goes into the Dem convention as a big happy family.


Problem is that Dean is not part of the establishment and they are not comfortable with him. Therefore he is not getting as much support/advice.

Also, now that he stuck his neck abover the rest of the pack, he has become a target for the media and others. Some-one to focus on, good or bad.
All slipups/miscues are magnified by the attention.

 

[alchemize]

I think Dean/His campaign has overrated the internet/blog "grass roots" movement. Heck you can get a "grass roots" movement for anything on the internet.

I wonder if anyone out there has a percentage of registered voters that use the internet for more than shopping

 

[digitalsm]

The best thing that could happen for the democrats is Edwards wins Iowa, and then goes on and carries all the southern states during Super Tuesday, which is what would likely happen if he won Iowa. Hes the only decent candidate out of the whole lot, granted I dont think he could beat Bush either.