- May 15, 2000
Actually it’s possible you are both right.Crime started dropping after 18 years everywhere they stopped burning lead in gasoline. County, city, state, country. Across the world. Had nothing to do with Roe v. Wade in 1973.
I will add though that pre 1900’s abortions were largely allowed however post 1900 most states prohibited abortions.
If abortions reduced crime we should see an uptick in crime starting in the ~19teens with an increase in crime as laws became stricter.
If lead was the cause in crime we should see an increase in crime some 15-20 years after its adoption (around 1922).
I don’t know if crime stats go that far but it would be interesting to see a correlation if any.
I should also add that since financial capability is a major factor in one deciding to have an abortion, we should see an increase in crime some 15-20 years after 1928 and a decrease in crime some 15-20 years after wwII when soldiers came back from the war.
Because lead was used during that whole time period we would expect not to see any drops in crime and an increase in crime when car usage increased (so most likely an increase in crime 15-20 years after wwii).