I am losing lots of respect for The Economist

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
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38
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I used to think their coverage of Japan was awful but their coverage of the Euro crisis is far fucking worse. The commentators seem to have more intelligence than the newspaper (I read the comment section by 'recommendation') This one explains exactly what I feel:

For long years, I used to believe that The Econmist was the very definition of pragmatic, calm common sense and logic. The Econmist was always the place o turn to to get some well thougt about and balanced view in the the midst of the great media cacophonie. This belief has vanished over the course of the euro crisis.

All the Economist seems to be able to suggest is Keynesian politics, where massive public debtis supposed to ignite the economy, and mutualisation of debt.

Looking at the current G-7 budgets it is clear to everybody except the people behind The Economist, that this "buy-now-pay-later"-thinking is exactly what brought us in the situation we are in now, and it is definitly not going to get us out of there. Giving an alcoholic more booze is not going to get him sober (whatever he may promise).

The southern countries will never be able to py back their debts (much like England and the US). The only result that Eurobonds will yield therefore is that it will ruin the relatively healthy neorthern countries.

What good does the Economist think may come out of that? asks a very disappointed reader who has just cancelled his subscription

and this one:

Well, nothing new here in The Economist. What The Economist does not explain is that German newspapers are full of the current choices and consequences. Merkel does not need to explain that, she is not our grand teacher and we are not the stupid pupils.

What The Economist is not taking into consideration either is that the majority of Germans simply does not want to be liable for other countries debts without a proper control, e.g. a fiscal union. And this fiscal union is not wanted in most European countries. Do you think France is eager for giving real souvereignity to Bruessels??? And as far as I am informed, the USA are not liable for Mexico either, or Texas does not bail out California if necessary. The supposed liberal Economist argues quite socialist.

Moreover, Merkel is not the European president but the German chancellor and she must by law protect her people and work for them. Other "leaders" are wellcome to come with proposals, but please with realistic ones. Maybe The Economist should consider that Germany is not willing to defend the Euro in its current form at all costs, we were forced to accept this currency by France and promised not to be liable for other countries. If a few countries need to leave the Euro, so be it.

I believe The Economist is representing some vested interests here. It is obvious to everyone why Obama or Cameron cry for Merkel's "bold actions". Well, they do not care for the consequences for Germany of those demands.

here is the article:

link

The global economy
Start the engines, Angela
The world economy is in grave danger. A lot depends on one woman

Jun 9th 2012 | from the print edition

“TO THE lifeboats!” That is the stark message bond markets are sending about the global economy. Investors are rushing to buy sovereign bonds in America, Germany and a dwindling number of other “safe” economies. When people are prepared to pay the German government for the privilege of holding its two-year paper, and are willing to lend America’s government funds for a decade for a nominal yield of less than 1.5%, they either expect years of stagnation and deflation or are terrified of imminent disaster. Whichever it is, something is very wrong with the world economy.

That something is a combination of faltering growth and a rising risk of financial catastrophe. Economies are weakening across the globe. The recessions in the euro zone’s periphery are deepening. Three consecutive months of feeble jobs figures suggest America’s recovery may be in trouble (see article). And the biggest emerging markets seem to have hit a wall. Brazil’s GDP is growing more slowly than Japan’s. India is a mess (see article). Even China’s slowdown is intensifying. A global recovery that falters so soon after the previous recession points towards widespread Japan-style stagnation.

But that looks like a good outcome when set beside the growing danger of a fracturing of the euro. The European Union, the world’s biggest economic area, could plunge into a spiral of bank busts, defaults and depression—a financial calamity to dwarf the mayhem unleashed by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The possibility of a Greek exit from the euro after its election on June 17th, the deterioration of Spain’s banking sector and the rapid disintegration of Europe’s cross-border capital flows have all increased this danger (see article). And this time it will be harder to counter. In 2008 central bankers and politicians worked together to prevent a depression. Today the politicians are all squabbling. And even though the technocrats at the central banks could (and should) do more, they have less ammunition at their disposal.

Made in Athens, made worse in Berlin

Nobody wants to test these various disaster scenarios. It is now up to Europe’s politicians to deal finally and firmly with the euro. If they come up with a credible solution, it does not guarantee a smooth ride for the world economy; but not coming up with a solution guarantees an economic tragedy. To an astonishing degree, the fate of the world economy depends on Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel (see article).

In one way it seems unfair to pick on Mrs Merkel. Politicians everywhere are failing to act—from Delhi, where reform has stalled, to Washington, where partisan paralysis threatens a lethal combination of tax increases and spending cuts at the end of the year. Within Europe, as Germans never cease to point out, investors are not worried about Mrs Merkel’s prudent government, whose predecessor restructured the economy painfully ten years ago; the problem is a loss of confidence in less well-run, unreformed countries.

But do not get too sympathetic. To begin with, past virtue counts for little at the moment: if the euro collapses, then Germany will suffer hugely. The downgrading of some of its banks this week was a portent of that. Moreover, the undoubted mistakes in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Spain and the other debtor countries have been compounded over the past three years by errors in Europe’s creditor countries. The overwhelming focus on austerity; the succession of half-baked rescue plans; the refusal to lay out a clear path for the fiscal and banking integration that is needed for the single currency to survive: these too are reasons why the euro is so close to catastrophe. And since Germany has largely determined this response, most of the blame belongs in Berlin.

Be bold, bitte

Outside Germany, a consensus has developed on what Mrs Merkel must do to preserve the single currency. It includes shifting from austerity to a far greater focus on economic growth; complementing the single currency with a banking union (with euro-wide deposit insurance, bank oversight and joint means for the recapitalisation or resolution of failing banks); and embracing a limited form of debt mutualisation to create a joint safe asset and allow peripheral economies the room gradually to reduce their debt burdens. This is the refrain from Washington, Beijing, London and indeed most of the capitals of the euro zone. Why hasn’t the continent’s canniest politician sprung into action?

Her critics cite timidity—and they are right on one count. Mrs Merkel has still never really explained to the German people that they face a choice between a repugnant idea (bailing out their undeserving peers) and a ruinous reality (the end of the euro). One reason why so many Germans oppose debt mutualisation is because they (wrongly) imagine the euro could survive without it. Yet Mrs Merkel also has a braver twin-headed strategy. She believes, first, that her demands for austerity and her refusal to bail out her peers are the only ways to bring reform in Europe; and, second, that if disaster really strikes, Germany could act quickly to save the day.

The first gamble can certainly claim some successes, notably the removal of Silvio Berlusconi in Italy and the passage, across southern Europe, of reforms that would recently have seemed unthinkable. But the costs of this strategy are rising fast. The recessions spawned by excessive austerity are rendering it self-defeating. Across much of Europe debt burdens are rising, along with the appeal of political extremes. The uncertainty caused by the muddle-through approach is draining investors’ confidence and increasing the risk of a euro disaster.

As for Germany’s idea that it could all be saved at the last minute, by, for instance, the European Central Bank (ECB) flooding a country with liquidity, that looks risky. Were Spain to see a full-scale bank run, even an emboldened Mrs Merkel might not be able to stop it. If Greece falls out, yes, the German public would be more convinced that sinners would be punished; but, as this newspaper has argued before, a “Grexit” would cause carnage in Greece and contagion around Europe. Throughout this crisis, Mrs Merkel has refused to come up with a plan bold enough to stun the markets into submission, in the same way that America’s TARP programme did.

In short, even if her strategy has paid some dividends, its cost has been ruinous and it has run its course. She needs to lay out a clear plan for the single currency, at the latest by the European summit on June 28th, earlier if Greece’s election spreads panic. It must be specific enough to dispel all doubt about Germany’s commitment to saving the euro. And it must include immediate downpayments on deeper integration, such as a pledge to use joint funds to recapitalise Spanish banks.

This would risk losing her support at home. Yet with these risks comes the possibility of rapid reward. Once Germany’s commitment to greater integration is clear, the ECB would have the room to act more robustly—both to buy many more sovereign bonds and to provide a bigger backstop for banks. With the fear of calamity diminished, a vicious cycle would become virtuous as investors’ confidence recovered.

The world economy would still have to grapple with ineptitude elsewhere and with weak growth. But it would have taken a giant step back from disaster. Mrs Merkel, it’s up to you.

I'm glad I don't pay for this garbage.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
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I cannot even imagine why responsible, solvent nations would wish to continue bailing out irresponsible, insolvent nations and hope that their behavior somehow changes in spite of being rewarded for bad behavior. I certainly can imagine The Economist advocating for that, though.
 

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
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I cannot even imagine why responsible, solvent nations would wish to continue bailing out irresponsible, insolvent nations and hope that their behavior somehow changes in spite of being rewarded for bad behavior. I certainly can imagine The Economist advocating for that, though.

Why? They always advocate half of what Keynes wanted: increase in government spending during a recession/depression. They never advocate the other half, which was increase in taxes when the economy is doing well (in order to pay for increase spending)
 

ShawnD1

Lifer
May 24, 2003
15,987
2
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I cannot even imagine why responsible, solvent nations would wish to continue bailing out irresponsible, insolvent nations and hope that their behavior somehow changes in spite of being rewarded for bad behavior. I certainly can imagine The Economist advocating for that, though.
Crystal meth epidemic?
"I would never buy bonds issued by GM. That company is going under. We should bail out Greece. I see them as the next big thing."
/lights meth pipe
 

zephyrprime

Diamond Member
Feb 18, 2001
7,510
2
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This is why I stopped reading the economist years ago. Yes, when I first discovered it in my twenties, it was a breath of fresh air. So erudite and knowledgeable. It had the wonderful british decorum and restraint which is sorely lacking from American news which is full of sound and fury signifying nothing. However, over time, I pretty much gleaned as much as there was to be had from them. They have a conservative view that is very orthodox and it got to the point where I could predict what they would say very easily. However, I don't really blame them for this. The Economist never was and never pretended to be cutting edge, dogged pursuers of truth, or brilliant solution finders. They are very much pillars of orthodoxy and the establishment. Of course there is nothing to be expected from them but standard advice. To bad standard advice isn't going to yield a working solution.
 
Oct 16, 1999
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Why? They always advocate half of what Keynes wanted: increase in government spending during a recession/depression. They never advocate the other half, which was increase in taxes when the economy is doing well (in order to pay for increase spending)

That may be a fair criticism, but that's not what at least the first quote you posted is taking issue with.
 
Oct 16, 1999
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I know that. The problem is that the commentor has basically equated "Keynesian economics" with just the recessionary part, which is how it has become popularized.

I dare say that's at least just as much the fault of rightwing media outlets as much as it is the Economist's. But I haven't been reading the Economist regularly so that's just a hunch.
 

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
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I dare say that's at least just as much the fault of rightwing media outlets as much as it is the Economist's. But I haven't been reading the Economist regularly so that's just a hunch.

But I rarely hear it explained properly. I guess people don't have the patience.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
71,850
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Explain yourself.



I know that. The problem is that the commentor has basically equated "Keynesian economics" with just the recessionary part, which is how it has become popularized.

We are in the recessional part now. What difference does it make whether the side that does not apply has been popularized or not, we don't need that part at the moment do we. When the economy recovers via stimulus you can remind us and maybe have a point.
 

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
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We are in the recessional part now. What difference does it make whether the side that does not apply has been popularized or not, we don't need that part at the moment do we. When the economy recovers via stimulus you can remind us and maybe have a point.

It does matter because people (conveniently) forget about the other part when the economy is doing better. Politicians, policymakers, citizens. Then they say "hey, Keynesian economics really does work", which is bullshit. That's not Keynesian economics. It's a bastardization of it and does the man no justice. When you only hear it during the recession is when you know something is wrong.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
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Why? They always advocate half of what Keynes wanted: increase in government spending during a recession/depression. They never advocate the other half, which was increase in taxes when the economy is doing well (in order to pay for increase spending)
I'd argue that The Economist is less Keynesian than progressive. More government spending all the time, higher taxes all the time. And this solution is pure progressive - SOMEONE needs to cough up some money, and it should be based on who has money to cough up without taking into account WHY those entities have money to cough up.

The problem with Keynesian economics is that a politician's first and highest goal is to maintain personal power. It even makes sense; no matter what great ideas a politician has, she can only implement them if she remains in power. It's also true that government spending (aka buying votes) is massively more popular with virtually everyone than is a high tax rate. Therefore Keynesian economics tends to devolve first into higher government spending during a recession and higher tax rates for other people during an economic expansion, and soon after (because when things are bad we want someone blamed and punished) higher government spending all the time and higher tax rates for other people all the time. And since there aren't enough "other people" (and since those few who have tons of wealth also tend to have power) in comparison to the number of votes that need to be bought, Keynesian economics tends to run big deficits during good economic times and huge deficits during bad economic times - leaving no real ability to spend noticeably more in recessions. Why then be surprised when The Economist advocates for what has become progressive orthodoxy and when in power, modern conservative orthodoxy as well? The left may pay lip service to the need for fiscal responsibility in good times and the right may pay lip service to the need for fiscal responsibility in bad times, but functionally they are more similar than not.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
82,223
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Yeah, I have to say that the Economist is pretty spot on here.

Germany and the rest of the EU created this situation and did so willingly. Germany's now trying to avoid the hard choice of either widespread damage to their economy through the collapse of the Euro or being put on the hook for other countries' liabilities. What's ended up happening is ruinously bad austerity policies for Southern Europe that will never work.

Germany has a decision to make, but if it continues down this path the decision will be made for it. Funny, I never heard the Germans complain about the Euro allowing them to run massive trade surpluses without currency appreciation that helped lead to this.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
82,223
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I'd argue that The Economist is less Keynesian than progressive. More government spending all the time, higher taxes all the time. And this solution is pure progressive - SOMEONE needs to cough up some money, and it should be based on who has money to cough up without taking into account WHY those entities have money to cough up.

Wow, the magazine that has endorsed Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, Bob Dole and George W Bush is a progressive publication? It most certainly does not call for more government spending and higher taxes all the time. I'm going to take it that you don't read The Economist very often, as your description of it bears almost no resemblance to the magazine I have read for years.
 

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
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Yeah, I have to say that the Economist is pretty spot on here.

Germany and the rest of the EU created this situation and did so willingly. Germany's now trying to avoid the hard choice of either widespread damage to their economy through the collapse of the Euro or being put on the hook for other countries' liabilities. What's ended up happening is ruinously bad austerity policies for Southern Europe that will never work.

Germany has a decision to make, but if it continues down this path the decision will be made for it. Funny, I never heard the Germans complain about the Euro allowing them to run massive trade surpluses without currency appreciation that helped lead to this.

The germans took the bitter austerity pill for a long time. Now that their economy is on the up and up, why should they subsidize the lazy and stupid? If they can do it so can the others.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
82,223
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The germans took the bitter austerity pill for a long time. Now that their economy is on the up and up, why should they subsidize the lazy and stupid? If they can do it so can the others.

Not really. What sent Germany on 'the up and up' was an export boom that was made possible due to massive investment in the Euro periphery that was used to finance German exports. Under normal conditions this would cause a change in currency valuation, but the Euro stopped that dead.

If you want all other countries to follow the German example, you are basically asking for all countries in the Euro to simultaneously create huge trade surpluses with one another. Hopefully it's self evident as to why that is a logical impossibility.
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
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Not really. What sent Germany on 'the up and up' was an export boom that was made possible due to massive investment in the Euro periphery that was used to finance German exports. Under normal conditions this would cause a change in currency valuation, but the Euro stopped that dead.

If you want all other countries to follow the German example, you are basically asking for all countries in the Euro to simultaneously create huge trade surpluses with one another. Hopefully it's self evident as to why that is a logical impossibility.

Ok, so Germany basically financed other countries purchase of their exports and had a booming economy because of it.

In order to keep a booming economy Germany must write off the debt or loan those countries money at a rate far lower than market rate even though their is little chance they will ever be actually paid back.....

Your going to have to explain that one to me a little better. Wouldn't it be easier and cheaper to just give their exports away and skip all the other steps?
 

UglyCasanova

Lifer
Mar 25, 2001
19,275
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Wow, the magazine that has endorsed Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, Bob Dole and George W Bush is a progressive publication? It most certainly does not call for more government spending and higher taxes all the time. I'm going to take it that you don't read The Economist very often, as your description of it bears almost no resemblance to the magazine I have read for years.

They endorsed Obama over McCain in 2008.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
71,850
5,858
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I'd argue that The Economist is less Keynesian than progressive. More government spending all the time, higher taxes all the time. And this solution is pure progressive - SOMEONE needs to cough up some money, and it should be based on who has money to cough up without taking into account WHY those entities have money to cough up.

The problem with Keynesian economics is that a politician's first and highest goal is to maintain personal power. It even makes sense; no matter what great ideas a politician has, she can only implement them if she remains in power. It's also true that government spending (aka buying votes) is massively more popular with virtually everyone than is a high tax rate. Therefore Keynesian economics tends to devolve first into higher government spending during a recession and higher tax rates for other people during an economic expansion, and soon after (because when things are bad we want someone blamed and punished) higher government spending all the time and higher tax rates for other people all the time. And since there aren't enough "other people" (and since those few who have tons of wealth also tend to have power) in comparison to the number of votes that need to be bought, Keynesian economics tends to run big deficits during good economic times and huge deficits during bad economic times - leaving no real ability to spend noticeably more in recessions. Why then be surprised when The Economist advocates for what has become progressive orthodoxy and when in power, modern conservative orthodoxy as well? The left may pay lip service to the need for fiscal responsibility in good times and the right may pay lip service to the need for fiscal responsibility in bad times, but functionally they are more similar than not.

Nobody forces anybody to get rich, right? If folk don't want to be milked for taxes they don't have to earn a taxable wage. People make money because they have to for psychological reasons, like a disease. When wolves hunt do they go for the fat or the skinny target? Everybody knows this going in. To devote ones life to earning money is a waste of live and there's a price to pay for indulgence. It always costs something to be stupid, no?
 

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
17,134
38
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Not really. What sent Germany on 'the up and up' was an export boom that was made possible due to massive investment in the Euro periphery that was used to finance German exports. Under normal conditions this would cause a change in currency valuation, but the Euro stopped that dead.

If you want all other countries to follow the German example, you are basically asking for all countries in the Euro to simultaneously create huge trade surpluses with one another. Hopefully it's self evident as to why that is a logical impossibility.

This is simply not true. Germany was weak after the Soviet collapse when they had to bring East Germany up to par with the West after unification. In addition to trillions of dollars transferred from West to East, they decided to reform their labor regime. It was called Agenda 2010. It was a success. Other highly regulated labor markets need to do the same.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
82,223
44,995
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This is simply not true. Germany was weak after the Soviet collapse when they had to bring East Germany up to par with the West after unification. In addition to trillions of dollars transferred from West to East, they decided to reform their labor regime. It was called Agenda 2010. It was a success. Other highly regulated labor markets need to do the same.

This is simply true. Germany's export sector is benefitting from what amounts to an enormously undervalued currency due to other Eurozone members' problems. They are in effect getting the same advantage that China does through currency manipulation. Last time I saw some figures, experts were saying that Germany's currency would appreciate by somewhere around 30% if it were to be on the Deutsche mark vs. the Euro. A 30% undervalued currency is an insane advantage.