Hurricanes 2007:10-29 Strange season - Busy season south of Islands keeps big storms away from U.S.

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RU482

Lifer
Apr 9, 2000
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moisture from Iowa corn fields...hahahahahaha...it's been dry as hell here (in Iowa) all summer, until recently
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
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www.alienbabeltech.com
9-8

Weather Channel making big deal of small system off Carolina coast.

Doesn't even look like it will bring much needed rain as it will skirt with coast only.
====================================================
Meanwhile more than 5 inches of leftover tropical rains from Henrietta drowning Oklahoma and Joplin Missouri.
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
42,591
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And the MidWest has been in a drought condition.

Let the moisture come and replentish the soil for the crops.

Much of the rain gets absorbed rather than lost.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
47
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Originally posted by: Common Courtesy
And the MidWest has been in a drought condition.

Let the moisture come and replentish the soil for the crops.

Much of the rain gets absorbed rather than lost.

I think Iowa is the only ones that have been dry.

Ironic
 
Sep 12, 2004
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Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Common Courtesy
And the MidWest has been in a drought condition.

Let the moisture come and replentish the soil for the crops.

Much of the rain gets absorbed rather than lost.

I think Iowa is the only ones that have been dry.

Ironic
You know it never rains in southern fallow corn, yeah?
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
9-12-07 Two storms a blowing:

One formed from a cold front this morning off Texas/East Louisiana coast.

It's nearly spinning in place and intensifying nicely.

The other is out in Atlantic approaching the lesser Antilles.

High over Cuba should steer this storm into Florida or curve it back into mid-Atlantic.

Too early to tell since still pretty far away.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
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www.alienbabeltech.com
I am not surprised by this at all.

Either they should hire me or just say they sleep on the job.

9-13-2007 Humberto grew faster than any storm on record

HIGH ISLAND, Texas - Call it the instant hurricane. Humberto, which grew faster than any storm on record from tropical depression to full-scale hurricane landfall, surprised the Texas-Louisiana coast early Thursday with 85-mph winds and heavy rain that knocked out power to more than 100,000 and left at least one person dead.

Meteorologists were at a loss to explain the rapid, 16-hour genesis of the first hurricane to hit the U.S. since 2005.

"Before Humberto developed, you looked at the satellite imagery the day before, and there was virtually nothing there.

This really spun up out of thin air, very, very quickly, said National Hurricane Center specialist James Franklin in Miami.

"We've never had any tropical cyclone go from where Humberto was to where Humberto got."
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,382
7,445
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Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Meteorologists were at a loss to explain the rapid, 16-hour genesis of the first hurricane to hit the U.S. since 2005.

I?ll explain it for them.

To imagine our 100 years of recorded data could encompass everything this 4.5 billion year old planet is capable of would be sheer idiocy. Expect the unexpected and don?t be surprised to find new tricks.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,095
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WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!

Ok maybe not all of us as i live in MN, well far away from those Hurricanes. But I do enjoy the warm gulf air they typically pull north for us :D

 

GoPackGo

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 2003
6,414
468
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Originally posted by: Genx87
WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!

Ok maybe not all of us as i live in MN, well far away from those Hurricanes. But I do enjoy the warm gulf air they typically pull north for us :D

Warmer? Its been colder here lately and we have frost advisories :)
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
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Hurracane Season 2007 has been really strange. Two really big cat 5's that went well South of the US mainland and then this Humberto that formed right off the coast and
intensified literally overnight. Had it had more water distance to work with it could have been much much more damaging.

The question is will this be attributed to global warming as more data is processed? If so, I would hate to see what happens if we get hit by another cat 5.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
47
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www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: Lemon law
Hurricane Season 2007 has been really strange.

Two really big cat 5's that went well South of the US mainland and then this Humberto that formed right off the coast and intensified literally overnight.

Had it had more water distance to work with it could have been much much more damaging.

The question is will this be attributed to global warming as more data is processed? If so, I would hate to see what happens if we get hit by another cat 5.

The strangeness continues.

This yet unnamed storm actually formed as a huge upper level low right smack over the middle of Florida. It is trying to spin down and shrink in just south of Panama City as I type this.

Looks like one more rotation and the southeast sidewall will fill in and make a tropical storm.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,382
7,445
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This storm would have to pull a Humberto with perfect conditions and I don?t expect it has that so close to shore. I wish it would give me some rain.

I don?t expect a news maker out of this one.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
47
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www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: Jaskalas
This storm would have to pull a Humberto with perfect conditions and I don?t expect it has that so close to shore. I wish it would give me some rain.

I don?t expect a news maker out of this one.

I understand it's been pretty dry in Alabama eh?

This should get some rain up as far as Bham.

There is another low trying to crank up in the middle of the gulf, it's outflow is feeding the storm by Panama city.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
47
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www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: Jaskalas
This storm would have to pull a Humberto with perfect conditions and I don?t expect it has that so close to shore. I wish it would give me some rain.

I don?t expect a news maker out of this one.

Very impressive shrink of the core since this morning.

It is now between Panama City and Pensacola and good banding around the core.

I'm sure wind speeds are picking up very quickly.

It should be a very short ride for the Hurricane Hunter plane to get there.
 
Sep 12, 2004
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It's actually not very impressive. There's dry air infiltrating the SE quadrant of the storm, not to mention that the greater part of the NE and NW quadrants are already over land which will tend to inhibit further development. The bands are not very organized and the fact that thunderstorms are being reported with this system indicates that wind speeds are relatively low within the bands that do exist. With any tightly wrapped tropical storm you'll have a great amount of convection in the banding but the high winds inhibit lightning. You'll generally only see lightning in a very organized tropical system in the very outer bands.

This is going to be merely a minor blow. No real further development of the system should be expected.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
47
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www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
It's actually not very impressive. There's dry air infiltrating the SE quadrant of the storm, not to mention that the greater part of the NE and NW quadrants are already over land which will tend to inhibit further development. The bands are not very organized and the fact that thunderstorms are being reported with this system indicates that wind speeds are relatively low within the bands that do exist. With any tightly wrapped tropical storm you'll have a great amount of convection in the banding but the high winds inhibit lightning. You'll generally only see lightning in a very organized tropical system in the very outer bands.

This is going to be merely a minor blow. No real further development of the system should be expected.

What are you looking at the Sahara?

There is a ton of moisture over Cuba and the Florida Penisula it is tapping into wrapping around feeding the core that is banding up every hour.

It's moving pretty quick so doesn't have a lot of time to get a really big surge together but I wouldn't want to be at the Rigoulese or Chef Montuer inlets to Lake Ponchartrain about 6 hours from now.

Be interesting to see if the core makes it right smack in the middle of Ponchartrain.
 
Sep 12, 2004
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I'm looking at the same storm the NHC is. You?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/r...AT5+shtml/211503.shtml

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW IN THE GULF HAS
GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND INTERMITTENT
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
PRESENT PROBABLY STRAINS THE DEFINITION A BIT...BECAUSE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE...
ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED A SMALL
CIRCULATION CENTER A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF APALACHICOLA...BUT
BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A LARGER-SCALE CENTER MAY BE FARTHER
SOUTH. THE ILL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...AS WELL
AS THE LINGERING UPPER-LOW ALOFT...PROVIDE THE RATIONALE FOR A
SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE
DEPRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON A TRACK NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
COASTLINE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BECAUSE THE
FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...A LANDFALL
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT IN ANY EVENT THE CENTER OF A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT. MOST OF THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS WELL-DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER.

THE UPPER-LOW IS FRAGMENTING...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY SLIDING
SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS WILL LEAVE THE DEPRESSION UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE FLOW OF
RELATIVELY COOL CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE GULF AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...AS WELL AS ITS POOR ORGANIZATION...SHOULD PREVENT
EXCESSIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE TROPICAL INTENSITY MODELS ALL SHOW
DEVELOPMENT TO A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM...WHILE THE GLOBAL
MODELS...WHICH MIGHT BE MORE APPROPRIATE TO THIS SITUATION...
FORECAST LITTLE STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A
COMPROMISE AMONG THESE SOLUTIONS.

At best it's forecast to become a mid-stength tropical storm. They already admit that it's poorly organized, as I stated previously. Current radar indicates that there is no discernable eye in the center and observations are that the observed center of rotation and the center of the surface low are likely off-axis. That doesn't bode well for further development.