Hurricane Leslie??

[DrPizza]

Weather attention seems to be on Isaac. Kirk has formed out in the Atlantic and poses no threat to the US mainland. Here comes another tropical depression, to be named Tropical Storm Leslie in a few days, and after that, a good chance at Hurricane Leslie.

Where will it go? It's at 15 degrees N, heading due west at the moment. Will it turn to the north in time? Or will it make it far enough west to pose a threat?

 

[Crono]

Are you talking about this:

I'm not worried about it, though even if it does turn into a hurricane it probably won't affect me... which isn't to say I wouldn't be worried for the safety of others, but I doubt there is reason for anyone to prepare yet.

 

[EagleKeeper]

8AM advisory has Leslie as a tropical storm well south of Kirk to not be impacted at all.

 

[DrPizza]

A ridge should build which will steer it northward. A couple models show it impacting New England or Nova Scotia, but not for 10 days out.

CLIQR (CLImatology-based Quantitative Rainfall) is a tool that will allow its users to search for previous tropical cyclones that, at one point in their life cycles, were similar to the defined set of initial data. The program will take these results, ranked in order of best match, and display their associated rainfall graphics that have been created from the Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology project. The search is based on available location, storm size, forward motion, and strength information provided by the National Hurricane Center Objective Guidance Messages (CHGHUR header in AWIPS). The database currently contains all of the best track points from both the Atlantic HURDAT (dating back through 1851) and the Eastern Pacific (dating back through 1949). Not all of this data is complete, however, as data for the heavily-weighted size (measured by the ROCI) criteria is present in the majority of systems only back through 1968. In the Eastern Pacific, this data is only available back through the 2001 season at present time. Because of this data "void," some older storms might not match as well as they potentially could. Work is underway to expand the availability of this data by using past scanned North American and Northern Hemisphere surface analyses from HPC/NMC, Tropical Strip maps from NHC and NMC, as well as other published sources.

The top 5 CLIQR matches are:
FRANCES 1976:
ALEX 1998:
FELIX 2001:
FLOSSIE 1978:
GEORGES 1998


The first 4 stayed in the Atlantic. The 5th hit Florida. If this one strengthens early, it'll probably head north. If it stays weak long enough, it could possibly zip across to the Caribbean.

 

[DrPizza]

Leslie has been experiencing significant wind shear. Every day when the models are run, the new models take it a little further west. Then a little further west. Then a little further west. Most likely, it won't impact CONUS, but there's a reasonable chance for New England or Nova Scotia. AND, it has the potential to be one hell of a storm when it gets up there.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Based on where it is now, I don't see much chance of it hitting anywhere in NA except Newfoundland, and probably not there either. The GFS does have it wallopping Nfld, but I'm not buying it. Very unusual to see a storm already that far north move that much west.

 

[MayorOfAmerica]

Chemtrails

 

[Fritzo]

8AM advisory has Leslie as a tropical storm well south of Kirk to not be impacted at all.

If Kirk gains any steam, it will become a hurri-KHAAAAAAN!

 

[Crono]

Probably not a good week to visit Bermuda...

 

[DrPizza]

Based on where it is now, I don't see much chance of it hitting anywhere in NA except Newfoundland, and probably not there either. The GFS does have it wallopping Nfld, but I'm not buying it. Very unusual to see a storm already that far north move that much west.

GFS has been pretty decent for a few storms this year. One of the models (Euro?) had it sitting off the shore of NJ as a Cat 4. That's not very likely, though people should be paying attention to this one.

 

[DrPizza]

Probably not a good week to visit Bermuda...

Bermuda might get pummeled. No, not a good week to visit Bermuda.

 

[Crono]

GFS has been pretty decent for a few storms this year. One of the models (Euro?) had it sitting off the shore of NJ as a Cat 4. That's not very likely, though people should be paying attention to this one.

Though not likely, I am definitely paying attention to the track of this storm now. Our area is definitely not prepared for hurricanes of that magnitude (the occasional tropical storm or rare Cat 1, yes). Even that early winter snow storm last October was pretty bad.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

I agree that it bears attention. It's way too early to rule anything in or out yet.

As for Bermuda, they handle these storms way better than the US does. Everything there is made of concrete, a Cat 3 washes over and two days later they are close to back to normal. (Bit of an exaggeration, I suppose, but it ain't anything like Katrina hitting NOLA.)

 

[Crono]

Storm is moving very slowly, looks like it might just gain enough strength to be Cat 2 when it hits Bermuda about Saturday night/Sunday morning. Weather Channel folks are saying it probably won't directly hit the U.S., but it definitely will bring rough surf to the east coast. If it were to hit the U.S. directly it would hit only next week.

 

[DrPizza]

Bermuda may escape more or less unscathed... because the storm might head a little more westward. That increases the threat to Nova Scotia (at the very least.) Should be a hurricane announcement this afternoon.

edit: nevermind, it IS a hurricane now. I missed it.

 

[Texashiker]

Hurricane noobs,,,,

lol.

 

[dmcowen674]

Bermuda may escape more or less unscathed... because the storm might head a little more westward. That increases the threat to Nova Scotia (at the very least.) Should be a hurricane announcement this afternoon.

edit: nevermind, it IS a hurricane now. I missed it.

Nevermind Leslie

The second un-named storm of the season to form just south of Destin Florida is drowning the already drowned areas around New Orleans,

This time the Hurricane Center has acknowledged it.

Last time in June they did not.

 

[Linflas]

Nevermind Leslie

The second un-named storm of the season to form just south of Destin Florida is drowning the already drowned areas around New Orleans,

This time the Hurricane Center has acknowledged it.

Last time in June they did not.

Unless it reaches the requisite sustained wind speed criteria it will remain unnamed, the naming has nothing to do with the amount of rain produced.

 

[rcpratt]

Dave:earthquakes::drPizza:tropical storms?

:sneaky:

 

[dmcowen674]

Unless it reaches the requisite sustained wind speed criteria it will remain unnamed, the naming has nothing to do with the amount of rain produced.

You apparently missed the post with the new McOwen scale for Tropical Storms so I will repeat it until it becomes the gold standard:

M1 - less than 4 inches of rain - T-storm like winds 39 to 50 mph

M2 - 4 to 8 inches of rain possible - 50 to 60 mph winds

M3 - 8 to 12 inches of rain possible - 60 to 70 mph winds

M4 - 12 or more inches of rain possible - 70 to sustained wind just below 74 mph

Isacc almost didn't get named a Hurricane, it certainly would have been an M4

 

[DrPizza]

That storm down there by Florida contains a lot of the remnants of Isaac. Isaac may give birth to... Nadine is it?

 

[dmcowen674]

That storm down there by Florida contains a lot of the remnants of Isaac. Isaac may give birth to... Nadine is it?

It got split actually.

Half hit Toronto and they recorded new rainfall record.

The other half went all the way under the Ohio high pressure through the southeast and made it back to picking up gulf moisture.

Now there is a very strong cold front pushing across the country mid section so should stop anything from pushing up in to the lower 48.

Highs will only hit 70 up here in Chicago.

Goodbye 90's till next April.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Nevermind Leslie

The second un-named storm of the season to form just south of Destin Florida is drowning the already drowned areas around New Orleans,

This time the Hurricane Center has acknowledged it.

Last time in June they did not.

Last
June your "storm" never even became a tropical storm and barely could be called a depression. It was so depressing watching you try to claim credit