How's this for a conspiracy theory on why American - European relations are on the rocks

[glenn1]

Consider the recent actions of the United States government vis á vis Europe (particularly France and Germany) in the light of the Iraq issue. After France and Germany made their opposition known, what if the U.S. government made a change in strategic focus away from Europe and towards China?

Both sides have something the other wants and could be considered to have mutually beneficial economic objectives which could be advanced together, and indeed strengthened even further at Europe's expense. Think about it. America's biggest need is a reliable partner to finance its trade deficit account and provide low cost manufactured goods, China's needs are for a stable provider of energy and basic materials (commodities such as steel, copper, nickle, etc), and a marketplace for its low-cost manufactured goods.

Here's how i see the deal could have been worked out. China agrees to stay out of the way on the Iraq issue, and contribute to it behind the scenes. How? Finance America's trade deficit by maintaining the reminbi (yuan) to dollar peg by buying hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars. America agrees to tone down the pro-democracy rhetoric against China, and after the war, do its part behind the scenes keeping oil flowing to China (presumably the Iraqis will have to sell it to someone). Since the world oil market is made in U.S. dollars, and since the yuan is pegged to the dollar, China isn't any worse off. The strengthening Euro, on the other hand, puts American manufacturers (and Chinese in turn, becuase of the yuan/dollar peg) in a better competitive export position. Squeeze Europe until it pops... either unemployment goes through the roof via lost manufacturing, or the Eurozone lowering rates significantly. Either way, Europe gets boned to American and Chinese benefit.

Such a strategic linkup would explain some other relatively odd news lately as well. America and China both have issues with problem child client states (Israel and North Korea respectively) that the other side can help massage. The American policy flip flop on Taiwan makes a lot of sense when you look at it from this angle.

I extend my theory out to the ATPN crowd, certain you'll give it the cross-examination it deserves and allowing me to refine it yet further 🙂

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

An idea not without merit.

I think this has been going on for some time, however at an unintentional level. Certainly China and the US have been cozy because of the potential for trade. I certainly could see the Bush administration thinking along the lines you describe. Forgetting what I consider the lack of wisdom in foolish reprisals, pursuing China as a bedfellow presents certain potential pitfalls. China wants to extend it's influence regionally, and eventually globally. In doing so, it is inevitable that we and they are going to bump heads over military matters. I would have hoped that wisdom would prevail over power displays, however the recent war in Iraq has changed my mind. I think superpowers are completely willing to make war a political option. Providing the economic means to aid this process MAY not be in our best interest. The US seems to always get bit in supporting despotic governments. China is no bastion of human rights.

I think China will be THE leading competitor with the US, and although trade may mitigate and improve relations, our societies as they are now are essentially incompatible

 

[rickn]

and yet I can't even fly from Florida to Cuba

 

[Dari]

The chinese cannot extend their influence globally without either a representative government or a political agenda. Right now they have neither.

Everyone knows China's potential. So everyone has (or should've) made plans when the chinese start to flex their muscles.

But the chinese have powerful masters in the West. They're names? Investors. What, you thought the Chinese magically got the capital and expertise to built up their economy? Hell no. If anything, the Chinese part of the Chinese economy is an economic mess. It is uncompetitive, insolvent, debt-laden, and controlled by political bosses in the communist party. If anything, as the world becomes more globalized, there will be more cooperation and less competition in the political sphere for the sake of the economic.