How's the Private Sector Doing Under Obama?

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cybrsage

Lifer
Nov 17, 2011
13,021
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Lets pretend we could have had, or would have had 4 more years of Bush policies instead of electing Obama in 2008.
Bin Laden still alive.

Actually, the killing of OBL was due to the intelligence gathered during the Bush years. They spent MANY years ensuring OBL was where they thought he was. Due to the problems caused if they were wrong, the government higher ups made sure they were VERY VERY sure they were not wrong.

Making VERY VERY sure takes a lot of time...especially when you do it in a way to prevent an "ally" from finding out - when that ally is harboring the guy you are trying to kill and that guy is surrouded by fanatics.

On this I give Obama a thumbs up - it was a risky move to make, but with all the intelligence gathered it was a smart chance to take.
 

FoBoT

No Lifer
Apr 30, 2001
63,089
12
76
fobot.com
companies are laying people off, they know what is coming regardless of R or D in the white house, when spain/italy tank, we'll all be hurtin' in our privates
 

JD50

Lifer
Sep 4, 2005
11,640
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Do you really know the concept of "spamming"?

Anyway, if you don't have nothing to comment, just skip to another thread.

I believe there are some people wanting to discuss that matter, even though there is a thread with this topic already.

Yes I know what spamming is. Posting news articles without commentary is considered spamming and is against the rules in P&N.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
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Yes I know what spamming is. Posting news articles without commentary is considered spamming and is against the rules in P&N.

Oh, please. The chart speaks for itself, a picture being worth a thousand words. Business has done well during the Obama years, even if many Americans haven't.

Complain to the Admins, unless you're just wanting to thread crap as usual.
 

JD50

Lifer
Sep 4, 2005
11,640
2,034
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Oh, please. The chart speaks for itself, a picture being worth a thousand words. Business has done well during the Obama years, even if many Americans haven't.

Complain to the Admins, unless you're just wanting to thread crap as usual.

Irrelevant
 

Dr. Zaus

Lifer
Oct 16, 2008
11,770
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Irrelevant

It's true; the rule for a long time now as "add your own input to the OP".

As if the situation in 2001 was vaguely comparable to that of 2008, or that the causes of the two recessions weren't entirely different.

We didn't have to bail out the financial sector in 2001. Had that not been done in 2008-2009, today would look a lot like 1932. We're living in the aftermath of the greatest financial looting spree in history, brought to us by free market self regulated banking under the approving watch of GWB regulators.
There are business cycles; It is clear that it wasn't a free market but a government-backed (maybe even mandated) looting that took down the financial industry.
 

JD50

Lifer
Sep 4, 2005
11,640
2,034
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It's true; the rule for a long time now as "add your own input to the OP".

Yep. But he's on Jhhhhhhhhhhhhn's team, so it doesn't count. The OP has posted several threads in P&N without commentary and then disappeared.
 

Bowfinger

Lifer
Nov 17, 2002
15,776
392
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Irrelevant
Somewhere along the line there has been a moderator statement that this is no longer a hard and fast rule in P&N. I don't have a link, but it was in a thread much like this where somebody complained about an OP without original commentary.
 

pcgeek11

Lifer
Jun 12, 2005
21,319
4,435
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What's missing here is a comparison to the bush1 recession and the Clinton-bush recession.

The one thing that I"m sure of is that if Obama gets re-elected he'll over-see a major recession toward the second half of his second term.

And he will still blame it on Bush...
 

Dr. Zaus

Lifer
Oct 16, 2008
11,770
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And he will still blame it on Bush...

Maybe; but if we see a recession every 7 years since the dawn of the spinning jenny... well maybe we should figure out that there's a freaking natural business cycle and that every 7 years there's some sort of down-turn!

Both 'sides' were 'in on' the 'inside job' that was the back-bone of the depth of this financial crisis. One side deregulated wall-street while the other demanded wall-street back securities for people with no business having house debt.

We'll see another down turn between 2015 and 2016, Obama will "own" it and the repugs will sweep into office after four years of being pissed that Obama loves gays.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
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Maybe; but if we see a recession every 7 years since the dawn of the spinning jenny... well maybe we should figure out that there's a freaking natural business cycle and that every 7 years there's some sort of down-turn!

Utterly inaccurate-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

Both 'sides' were 'in on' the 'inside job' that was the back-bone of the depth of this financial crisis. One side deregulated wall-street while the other demanded wall-street back securities for people with no business having house debt.

What was the mechanism whereby Dems demanded such backing?
 

Dr. Zaus

Lifer
Oct 16, 2008
11,770
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Sorry, recession was the wrong word and I over-stated my case. We have had regular, semi predictable, business cycles.

Businesscycle_figure3.jpg


What was the mechanism whereby Dems demanded such backing?
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/supmanual/cch/fair_lend_fhact.pdf

"Use of Excessively Burdensome Qualification Standards" was interpreted by both sides to mean "ownership society"; though the push came from the left as a means of pandering to their constituency.
 
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From Abroad

Member
May 11, 2012
38
0
0
Yes I know what spamming is. Posting news articles without commentary is considered spamming and is against the rules in P&N.

Is that correct, moderators?

Anyway, I'll do next time if it makes you happy.

Even though I don't have nothing relevant to say, which was the current case (I am more interested in what you guys have to say about the issue rather than put my opinion about it because I don't live in this country as you might have noticed.)
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
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http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/supmanual/cch/fair_lend_fhact.pdf

"Use of Excessively Burdensome Qualification Standards" was interpreted by both sides to mean "ownership society"; though the push came from the left as a means of pandering to their constituency.

Obfuscating & conflating rather nicely, I see.

Passage of the Fair lending act in no way offered that Lenders should create no-doc, no-down, negative amortization ARM's, Helocs based on fluffed up valuations or any of the things that caused the bubble & the crash. Lenders did that themselves, thanks to the magic of securitization & Bush Admin complicity. The law doesn't call for lending to people on non-economic grounds, at all, but rather restricts lending to economic grounds rather than the practices of red-lining & discrimination that preceded it.

Belief that it did is one of the great shibboleths for the apologists of the lootocracy.
 

Dr. Zaus

Lifer
Oct 16, 2008
11,770
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Obfuscating & conflating rather nicely, I see.
false.

Attempting to have an honest dialog and sharing my perspective based in the information I have. Happy to accept countervailing perspectives and assumptions and analyse them as fairly as possible in light of my previous understanding.

no-doc, no-down, negative amortization ARM's, Helocs based on fluffed up valuations
True...
or any of the things that caused the bubble & the crash.
... false. The anti-discrimination ban on "Use of Excessively Burdensome Qualification Standards" was interpreted, through the prodding of the democrats and the tacit approval of the republicans, to mean to set excessively low qualification standards.

Lenders did that themselves, thanks to the magic of securitization
This securitization would not have functioned if there were not a government agency, hell bent on lending money to everyone, ready to gobble-up all of those securities.

The law doesn't call for lending to people on non-economic grounds, at all, but rather restricts lending to economic grounds rather than the practices of red-lining & discrimination that preceded it.
That was the intent of the law. But, as I pointed out, one clause was used for the former and not the latter.

Belief that it did is one of the great shibboleths for the apologists of the lootocracy.
True.

But you'll find that I was blaming both government intervention on the side of excess lending and government intervention on the side of reduced regulation for the problems. You shouldn't have a little freak-out when someone presents the part of the other side's argument that is right; you should be happy. You should be seeking out ways to accept the premise of the the side you oppose but, if you like, still hold to your own views: something that strengthens your argument well-beyond simple denial of the other side.
 
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Thump553

Lifer
Jun 2, 2000
12,676
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In a very real sense both Obama and his GOP detractors are correct. Obama is correct in that the private sector is, in general, in very good shape. Record profits, record cash on hand, record productivity. The GOP detractors are correct in pointing to the stubbornly high unemployment rate.

The private sector is NOT now, and even after a Romney election, going to ramp up employment. It will stay high for a long time for two reasons: (1) the structural change to our economy-high employment manufacturing and a lot of low level service jobs will be outsourced to places like India and China and (2) the private sector is seeing the same headwinds the rest of us are-things like a potential meltdown in Europe, China posed on the edge of a bubble, etc. Perceived near future demand drives employment, and few employers are confident enough to bet on a rosy near term future.

This is true regardless of who is in the White House. If Romney takes over the titans of commerce will just grow their piles of cash, with little if any change in employment-in fact almost certainly a decrease if Romney makes good on his promises to hack away at public employment.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
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... false. The anti-discrimination ban on "Use of Excessively Burdensome Qualification Standards" was interpreted, through the prodding of the democrats and the tacit approval of the republicans, to mean to set excessively low qualification standards.

Except that the statute you cite was passed in 1977, so if there were any cause & effect relationship between it and the bubble we'd have seen it a lot sooner, huh?

It was deregulation, non-enforcement of remaining regs, cock-blocking of state regulators & "innovative financial products" (AKA flimflams) that caused the bubble. The Bush Admin could have applied the brakes at any time, but chose not to, being ideologically opposed to regulation of the financial sector. They cheered it on, demanded that the GSE's make more "affordable loans" even as their regulators didn't- regulate, that is.

By the time Dems took Congress in 2006 & the White House in 2008, the economy was already snake-bit, with the overhang of non-collectible private debt enormous. It still is.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2008/10/12/53802/private-sector-loans-not-fannie.html

http://dorkmonger.blogspot.com/2008/11/cutting-red-tape.html
 

blankslate

Diamond Member
Jun 16, 2008
8,596
475
126
Actually, the killing of OBL was due to the intelligence gathered during the Bush years.


That's debatable...

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/04/us/politics/04torture.html

As intelligence officials disclosed the trail of evidence that led to the compound in Pakistan where Bin Laden was hiding, a chorus of Bush administration officials claimed vindication for their policy of “enhanced interrogation techniques” like waterboarding.

Among them was John Yoo, a former Justice Department official who wrote secret legal memorandums justifying brutal interrogations. “President Obama can take credit, rightfully, for the success today,” Mr. Yoo wrote Monday in National Review, “but he owes it to the tough decisions taken by the Bush administration.”

Of course you'd expect them to say that.

however

But a closer look at prisoner interrogations suggests that the harsh techniques played a small role at most in identifying Bin Laden’s trusted courier and exposing his hide-out.

One detainee who apparently was subjected to some tough treatment provided a crucial description of the courier, according to current and former officials briefed on the interrogations. But two prisoners who underwent some of the harshest treatment — including Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, who was waterboarded 183 times — repeatedly misled their interrogators about the courier’s identity.

Supposedly torture works, but why did the person who wasn't tortured the most reveal more information about the courier than people who were subject to more rigorous measures?

Glenn L. Carle, a retired C.I.A. officer who oversaw the interrogation of a high-level detainee in 2002, said in a phone interview Tuesday, that coercive techniques “didn’t provide useful, meaningful, trustworthy information.” He said that while some of his colleagues defended the measures, “everyone was deeply concerned and most felt it was un-American and did not work.”

Not everyone in intelligence agrees that torture is the way to go.


Back to the subject of the Thread though.

The private sector imo is not "doing fine"

President Obama has since admitted that he made a gaff with that statement.

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7411652n

I'd describe it as limping along instead of cratering as it was in 2008 / 2009 the numbers show jobs being added for over 20 months though admittedly not in the numbers that are needed.


However, the argument can be made that even if the Democratic party had a majority in the first part of President Obama's term not having a 60 vote filibuster proof majority doesn't cut it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senate_hold

There's a way to prevent bills from entering debate in the senate and it only takes a few senators to enact it.

Additionally according to author Robert Draper

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/25/robert-draper-anti-obama-campaign_n_1452899.html

A group of Republican Senators met in a private dinner and discussed how to prevent President Obama from being successful.

Given that there wasn't a 60 vote coalition to stop filibusters (of which coincidentally there was a record number in recent years) it's obvious how it was done.

aviary%20(1).jpg
 
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werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
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false.

Attempting to have an honest dialog and sharing my perspective based in the information I have. Happy to accept countervailing perspectives and assumptions and analyse them as fairly as possible in light of my previous understanding.


True...

... false. The anti-discrimination ban on "Use of Excessively Burdensome Qualification Standards" was interpreted, through the prodding of the democrats and the tacit approval of the republicans, to mean to set excessively low qualification standards.


This securitization would not have functioned if there were not a government agency, hell bent on lending money to everyone, ready to gobble-up all of those securities.

That was the intent of the law. But, as I pointed out, one clause was used for the former and not the latter.


True.

But you'll find that I was blaming both government intervention on the side of excess lending and government intervention on the side of reduced regulation for the problems. You shouldn't have a little freak-out when someone presents the part of the other side's argument that is right; you should be happy. You should be seeking out ways to accept the premise of the the side you oppose but, if you like, still hold to your own views: something that strengthens your argument well-beyond simple denial of the other side.
About how I see it. And once government got the ball rolling good ol' greed took over as people forgot about how qualification of loans had been neutered and concentrated only on the returns the mortgage stocks and derivatives were showing. One has to wonder to wonder how true that would have been had the expectation of government protection not been in play.

And of course the removal of the last tired vestiges of Glass-Steagall, signed by Clinton but authored by Republicans, allowed such gambling with federally insured deposits, practically speaking, and together with the widespread "investment" in worthless derivatives ensured that the housing sector crash would take down our whole house of cards. Arguing that one person or one party was responsible for the crash is a fool's game, we all played our parts.
 

piasabird

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
17,168
60
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The progressive government just manipulates numbers to makes things look better than they are. I think we are in a depression.

Calling the President's men liberals would be insulting all liberals.
 
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Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
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About how I see it. And once government got the ball rolling good ol' greed took over as people forgot about how qualification of loans had been neutered and concentrated only on the returns the mortgage stocks and derivatives were showing. One has to wonder to wonder how true that would have been had the expectation of government protection not been in play.

And of course the removal of the last tired vestiges of Glass-Steagall, signed by Clinton but authored by Republicans, allowed such gambling with federally insured deposits, practically speaking, and together with the widespread "investment" in worthless derivatives ensured that the housing sector crash would take down our whole house of cards. Arguing that one person or one party was responsible for the crash is a fool's game, we all played our parts.

Yes... and No.

As I offered, the statute cited passed in 1977, so referencing that is inaccurate, to say the least. The only way that govt got the ball rolling was through the efforts of the free market self regulated banking cutting red tape so you can buy the house of your dreams with innovative financial products Bush Admin. Really. I've pasted so many links to their complicity in past discussions that it's surprising that anybody who reads this forum could possibly think otherwise.

Of course it was all about greed- greed at the top. W/O Glass Steagal, W/O any sort of watchful presence in Bush Admin regulators, the masters of the universe, Wall St, were free to go hog wild, and they did. It wasn't depository banks per se, but rather investment banks who originated the vast majority of shaky loans & securities. It wasn't about secured deposits, but rather investment in MBS & investors' money in the Repo market that were threatened. And it's not that derivatives are worthless, but rather that applied the way they were made risk systemic rather than mitigating it at all. It's a round robin zero sum game, where money just moves around, but the players lacked the liquidity to cover their bets, everybody depending on the other guy to pay first so that they could pay... impossible since investors backed out of the repo market en masse at the first sign of trouble.

We've seen this before, many times- investment bankers are, by their very natures, reckless when they're on a roll, raking in the big money. 1873. 1929. The S&L debacle to a lesser degree, and 2008, obviously. There are other examples in history. The rewards of such recklessness are so enormous as to dwarf all other considerations. If they ride their corporate steeds into the dirt in the process, so what? They're rich beyond the imagination of the rest of us as a consequence- they got theirs, so the rest of us can go piss up a rope. Yeh, sure, it's even better if the govt steps in to bail them out, prevent collapse- they get right back on the horse, see if they can ride it to death, again.

You're correct to some degree or another about govt rescue as implicit- it has to be, for the sake of the rest of us. There's even a name for it- the Greenspan put, resulting from FRB action in the LTCM fiasco of 1998.

If we're in the position where we can't, as a society, tolerate collapse of the financial sector (and I believe we are) then we need to provide impulsive big money toddlers with a much safer playpen, one they can't get out of, one where we don't have to chase them down every time they run out in traffic. That is, of course, totally incompatible with the idea of free market banking & finance entirely. If they want to play, they need to play by our rules, the rules established by the will of the people in a representative democracy, and none other. You're right that everybody shares some responsibility, but there's a difference between the perps and the chumps that shouldn't be forgotten.

The problem wasn't really in the collapse of the housing bubble, anyway, but rather that it was allowed to occur in the first place, because that made collapse inevitable. The time for corrective action was on the way up, when the Bush Admin was acting as cheerleaders rather than watchdogs. Once that happens, we have to live with the results, as we are today.

Business? The guys at the top o' the heap are doing great- better than ever, which is what Obama referenced. If tickledown economic theory amounted to more than a hat full of warm piss, the rest of us would be doing great, too, but we're not. Why not? Because that theory is a lie, a fairytale, a con game formulated to convince the gullible, and has been all along.
 

Dr. Zaus

Lifer
Oct 16, 2008
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As I offered, the statute cited passed in 1977, so referencing that is inaccurate, to say the least.
The re-interpretation of the statute is a bureaucratic shift that started under Clinton; such is the legacy of Henry Gonzalez who chaired the house banking committee for all of bush 1 and the first two years of Clinton. It was argued that people were anti-minority if they opposed his "pro-minority" legislation.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
The re-interpretation of the statute is a bureaucratic shift that started under Clinton; such is the legacy of Henry Gonzalez who chaired the house banking committee for all of bush 1 and the first two years of Clinton. It was argued that people were anti-minority if they opposed his "pro-minority" legislation.

Heh. You haven't explained the 10 year gap between Gonzales' influence & the housing bubble. If what you claim were true, we'd have seen the bubble much, much sooner, but we didn't. You fail to illustrate that any coupling exists at all, other than as an article of misguided faith.

GWB preached the Ownership Society from the Bully Pulpit while his Admin did their best to make sure that nothing got in the way of the greatest looting spree in the history of finance.

I'm sure that not all of them saw it for what it was, because they didn't and still don't understand that unfettered capitalism is its own worst enemy, hell bent on destroying itself in a series of ever greater boom/bust cycles. They were ideologically opposed to preventing that, even though they couldn't possibly understand it in those terms.
 

Dr. Zaus

Lifer
Oct 16, 2008
11,770
347
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You haven't explained the 10 year gap between Gonzales' influence & the housing bubble.
takes a long time to go from one to the other. In Paul Krugman's book The Great Unraveling: Losing Our Way in the New Century he mentions two key factors that are problimatic going forward:

Policies enacted by the Clinton administration were gaining momentum under the bush administration. This he called this "replacing the .com bubble with a housing bubble".

Second, he said that the ATM was descending over time and that the projected budget problems would be extensive and compounding because all CBO projections assumed that the ceiling would no longer be propped up.

The problem would eventually come to a head; with gas prices skyrocketing because of the normalization of the dollar's falling purchasing power against the commodity of gas or a massive increase in taxes. Either way the Clinton-era government-mandated interpretation that made a simple FICO score and a willingness to lie about income all you need for a loan was going to burst.

I think what krugman didn't take into account was exactly how badly the other side of the equation the "free market" was going to behave ON TOP of the shinanigans of government mandated bullshittery.

Oh and Sarbanes-Oxly was a cause of intense and rapid decline in home values; during an up time it's not too big of a problem, but during a down-swing mark-to-market reforms demands an ever dwindleing valuation on new builds: thus rapidly destroying home prices and new-build demands. I get this from "age of turbulence" where Alan Greenspan says a LOT of things, including reviewing the best of the international-business literature: which convinced me that he was incredibly knowledgeable.


(*keep in mind i'm not defending bush, i'm just arguing that the government mandated, not just the free-market exploitation, lead to the bubble)
 
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