How would the middle east change if Iran developed the Nuke?

[JEDI]

besides a big hole that used to be Israel...

 

[touchstone]

they will eventually develop it unless we drop the sanctions. what reason do they have to cease enrichment if we keep the sanctions there?



and nothing would change. all iran having nukes means, is that the united states (and others) can no longer invade them without risking world war 3, like they can currentl with iraq or syria. the united states will not risk nuclear war which is why north korea is still run by some psycho but we take a trip every 3 years to topple some middle eastern dictatorship. if those dictators had nukes we would leave them alone. iran knows this


we cannot prevent them from obtaining a nuke. at best we could delay them. right now, it is easier for them to make a deal because the low oil price is slaughtering their economy. if we leave the sanctions in place they will just restart enrichment in deeper tunnels where even bunker busters cant penetrate

 

[MongGrel]

they will eventually develop it unless we drop the sanctions. what reason do they have to cease enrichment if we keep the sanctions there?



and nothing would change. all iran having nukes means, is that the united states (and others) can no longer invade them without risking world war 3, like they can currentl with iraq or syria. the united states will not risk nuclear war which is why north korea is still run by some psycho but we take a trip every 3 years to topple some middle eastern dictatorship. if those dictators had nukes we would leave them alone. iran knows this


we cannot prevent them from obtaining a nuke. at best we could delay them. right now, it is easier for them to make a deal because the low oil price is slaughtering their economy. if we leave the sanctions in place they will just restart enrichment in deeper tunnels where even bunker busters cant penetrate

For you're newness, you're awfully Pro Iran, Pro Nuke there.

I seem to remember joining the USMC in 1980 watching Iranians burning US flags.

]

 

[finglobes]

Aside from Iranian regimes theological fixation with raising hell to "usher in the Mahdi" - there is also the chain of escalation involved. If Iran gets nukes Saudis say they want nukes. Pakistan is saying they want more nukes too - which causes India to want more nukes. Obama strips US nuke capacity (delivery capacity as well as nuke numbers) saying he wants to "free" world from nukes but hes actually causing a nuke arms race in tinderbox of the world

 

[touchstone]

For you're newness, you're awfully Pro Iran, Pro Nuke there.

im pro-sanity




if you really think it would be that hard to stop israel from being able to bomb their centrifuges then you arent thinking hard. they already had to use stuxnet to shut down refinement last time, and without arial refueling (and hence US help) israel cant conduct the strike because their f15s and f16s only have a 600-900 mile combat range. even assuming they get a couple tankers and clearance to fly over saudi airspace and break through their air defences and manage to find out where the centrifuges are, all the iranians have to do is dig a hole deep enough. there is only so far conventional bombs can penetrate. dig a tunnel down a couple thousand feet and suddenly you are safe from anything short of nuclear bombs, what then?


pakistan has nukes. india has nukes. north korea has nukes. all three of these nations are actually less technically advanced than iran, the only reason iran hasn't succeeded yet is we have put massive pressure on their economy for decades on them to try and destroy their regime from the ground up

 

[MongGrel]

im pro-sanity




if you really think it would be that hard to stop israel from being able to bomb their centrifuges then you arent thinking hard. they already had to use stuxnet to shut down refinement last time, and without arial refueling (and hence US help) israel cant conduct the strike because their f15s and f16s only have a 600-900 mile combat range. even assuming they get a couple tankers and clearance to fly over saudi airspace and break through their air defences and manage to find out where the centrifuges are, all the iranians have to do is dig a hole deep enough. there is only so far conventional bombs can penetrate. dig a tunnel down a couple thousand feet and suddenly you are safe from anything short of nuclear bombs, what then?


pakistan has nukes. india has nukes. north korea has nukes. all three of these nations are actually less technically advanced than iran, the only reason iran hasn't succeeded yet is we have put massive pressure on their economy for decades on them to try and destroy their regime from the ground up

You're just barking up the wrong tree, sorry.

Granted, you have a few good points, but still I do not see it.

That and other things out there you seem unaware of at any rate.

 

[ivwshane]

Absolutely nothing would change.

Countries don't get nukes to bully other countries, they get nukes to stop other countries from bullying them or they get them as a deterrent.

Iran with nukes scares the gullible and hinders the progress of neo cons.

Iran is nothing like the countries that surround it (in terms of instability and craziness).

 

[MongGrel]

Absolutely nothing would change.

Countries don't get nukes to bully other countries, they get nukes to stop other countries from bullying them or they get them as a deterrent.

Iran with nukes scares the gullible and hinders the progress of neo cons.

Countries that in the past claim they would use them to blow infidels off the face of the earth at the first chance tend to be a bit of a different story.

I need to find my old high school yearbook someday from 1980, I have a picture of me and a buddy I went into the USMC with burning an Iranian flag att....

 

[sandorski]

Israel being a smoldering ruin is not a given.

 

[Exophase]

besides a big hole that used to be Israel...

I doubt Iran is actually that stupid. Nukes are just defence/insurance, no one wants to really use them, not even countries like North Korea.

 

[cubby1223]

Absolutely nothing would change.

Countries don't get nukes to bully other countries, they get nukes to stop other countries from bullying them or they get them as a deterrent.

Iran with nukes scares the gullible and hinders the progress of neo cons.

Iran is nothing like the countries that surround it (in terms of instability and craziness).

I know of at least one country who is currently annexing neighboring lands using their nuclear capacity as bully tactics against any response.

 

[Bitek]

Little, other than an escalated arms race.

Nukes are useless weapons. They are so over powered they can never be used other than for an desperate act of self defense.

Why would they ever nuke Israel? It would be their end. The words are hollow.

 

[MongGrel]

I doubt Iran is actually that stupid. Nukes are just defence/insurance, no one wants to really use them, not even countries like North Korea.

You might be surprised what some countries might do, in the name of a cause.

 

[ivwshane]

I know of one country who is annexing neighboring lands using their nuclear capacity as bully tactics against any response.

No you don't. No country is threatening nukes.

 

[ivwshane]

Countries that in the past claim they would use them to blow infidels off the face of the earth at the first chance tend to be a bit of a different story.

I need to find my old high school yearbook someday from 1980, I have a picture of me and a buddy I went into the USMC with burning an Iranian flag att....

Yeah, it's called big talk and it's rarely backed up by a big stick.

 

[Bitek]

I know of one country who is annexing neighboring lands using their nuclear capacity as bully tactics against any response.

It's because of their conventional arms strength and unwillingness of the powerful around them to fight and die.

German, French, American or British boys are lining up to fight for Ukrainians? We all have nukes too. Does that change our bravado?

How many proxy wars did the Soviets and the west fight? How many involved tossing nukes? None. Why? BC they don't have much usefulness other than fear.


Why would Iran be any different? I don't want anyone to have them. OTOH I'm not going to start a war over it either

 

[cubby1223]

No you don't. No country is threatening nukes.

I'm curious what you believe the definition of the word "threat" is
https://euobserver.com/foreign/128001

Russian leader Vladimir Putin, in a pre-filmed interview, has said he was ready to use nuclear weapons if the West had tried to stop him seizing Crimea.

He made the comment in a documentary, “Crimea. The Path to the Motherland”, aired on Russian state TV on Sunday (15 March).

When asked if he would have put his nuclear arsenal on alert, he responded: “We were ready to do that … That’s why I think no one wanted to start a world conflict”.

 

[Bitek]

I'm curious what you believe the definition of the word "threat" is
https://euobserver.com/foreign/128001

Right. Or he could be full of shit and bluster like always. He is KGB after all. How does his little scenario end? Every Russian dead? Great plan.

Are you suggesting we would have us tanks streaming through Donetsk right now but for these threats?

 

[JEDIYoda]

if you really think it would be that hard to stop israel from being able to bomb their centrifuges then you arent thinking hard. they already had to use stuxnet to shut down refinement last time, and without arial refueling (and hence US help) israel cant conduct the strike because their f15s and f16s only have a 600-900 mile combat range. even assuming they get a couple tankers and clearance to fly over saudi airspace and break through their air defences and manage to find out where the centrifuges are, all the iranians have to do is dig a hole deep enough. there is only so far conventional bombs can penetrate. dig a tunnel down a couple thousand feet and suddenly you are safe from anything short of nuclear bombs, what then?

Israel has their own tankers and would NOT need US help if they decided to strike!!

 

[cubby1223]

Right. Or he could be full of shit and bluster like always. He is KGB after all. How does his little scenario end? Every Russian dead? Great plan.

Russia is using nuclear threats as part of their strategy to annex neighboring lands. That's all I'm pointing out to the person who made a strong statement that nations never use nuclear threats in aggression.

I guess you could take it as Russia's threat is not, I will annex you or else I use nukes against you, rather I have annexed you, if you resist I will use nukes to defend myself. But, really?

Are you suggesting we would have us tanks streaming through Donetsk right now but for these threats?

Why did we conduct airstrikes against ISIS and not against Russia's invasion forces? Why did we take down Gaddafi and not Kim Jong Il? Russia's military strength and their nuclear arsenal absolutely is a factor in this country's military decision making process.



Bottom line is, nuclear weapons gives Iran's leaders more power in the region to do what they choose to do. Beyond that it's up to them on how they choose to wield that power.

 

[ivwshane]

He made a threat after the fact, that should tell you all you need to know...it's pure propaganda and you ate that shit up.

I'm curious what you believe the definition of the word "threat" is
https://euobserver.com/foreign/128001

 

[ivwshane]

Russia is using nuclear threats as part of their strategy to annex neighboring lands. That's all I'm pointing out to the person who made a strong statement that nations never use nuclear threats in aggression.

I guess you could take it as Russia's threat is not, I will annex you or else I use nukes against you, rather I have annexed you, if you resist I will use nukes to defend myself. But, really?

You've just twisted what Putin was saying to fit your narrative. Sorry, I'm not buying it.

Why did we conduct airstrikes against ISIS and not against Russia's invasion forces? Why did we take down Gaddafi and not Kim Jong Il? Russia's military strength and their nuclear arsenal absolutely is a factor in this country's military decision making process.



Bottom line is, nuclear weapons gives Iran's leaders more power in the region to do what they choose to do. Beyond that it's up to them on how they choose to wield that power.

You also just made my point (guess who is the bully in your examples).

 

[cubby1223]

He made a threat after the fact, that should tell you all you need to know...it's pure propaganda and you ate that shit up.

Are you seriously that pathetic of an individual? Russia has been threatening nuclear weapon use over a long range of issues dating well prior to their invasion of Crimea.

I asked you to define "threat" and all you can do is dodge and insult.

Which of these statements do you disagree with:
(1) they are threatening use of their nuclear weapons.
(2) they are bullying their neighbors, evidenced by the annexing of Crimea, the war in Eastern Ukraine, the annexing of South Ossetia, the propaganda attacks against the Baltic States...


But to the larger point, this all is going off topic now. I figured individuals of this forum had more civility, realize the error in their initial judgments, and continue on without throwing a pissy fit. Once again I was wrong

 

[ivwshane]

Are you seriously that pathetic of an individual? Russia has been threatening nuclear weapon use over a long range of issues dating well prior to their invasion of Crimea.

I asked you to define "threat" and all you can do is dodge and insult.

Which of these statements do you disagree with:
(1) they are threatening use of their nuclear weapons.
(2) they are bullying their neighbors, evidenced by the annexing of Crimea, the annexing of South Ossetia, and the propaganda attacks against the Baltic States.

You pointed to a fucking documentary after the incident occurred as proof of Russia threatening other countries. That's not a threat, that's a punk talking trash after everyone has dispersed.

 

[ivwshane]

But to the larger point, this all is going off topic now. I figured individuals of this forum had more civility, realize the error in their initial judgments, and continue on without throwing a pissy fit. Once again I was wrong

Exactly, once again you are not only wrong but you are projecting again.