How well is Win Phone 7 actually doing?

[mammador]

even if it's awesome, I think this huge plan is going to be an ultimate failure... A company needs to understand when to cut their losses, which I believe they're planning right now... Otherwise, why not advertise the hell out of it?

Android only has high market share due to so many manufacturers. the 53 percent obviously includes Samsung, HTC, Motorola, etc. That and quality handsets. The Droid started the ball rolling, and the HTC Desire, Samsung Galaxy I and II and the Google phones added to it.

MS and Nokia simply need to create a phone with good specs, and promote it. Phone quality is what makes Android and iOS as big as they are.

 

[lothar]

WP7 is a damn good operating system, better than Android and iOS in some ways. I'd love to see it become the "third ecosystem".

Nokia is still a very powerful brand in Europe. With enough advertising, I think they could become a big name in the USA once again as well. Their products are very well made and attractive.

I seriously doubt WP7 will overtake Android or iOS anytime soon, but I could easily see them breaking into double-digit marketshare by this time next year.

You think they will go from 2% to 10% market share in 12 months?
That's one hell of a prediction.

For them to do that, RIM would virtually have to be dead.
The following are facts: They certainly won't steal much of any market share from iOS or Android.
That leaves them the current 10% market share of RIM, 3% WM, 1% Symbian, and 1% Palm OS to squabble over. They would need to get 8% out of the remaining 15%, and that's only if iOS and Android don't gain any additional market share.

If your prediction happens, great.
But I have my doubts. :hmm:

 

[Deeko]

You think they will go from 2% to 10% market share in 12 months?
That's one hell of a prediction.

For them to do that, RIM would virtually have to be dead.
The following are facts: They certainly won't steal much of any market share from iOS or Android.
That leaves them the current 10% market share of RIM, 3% WM, 1% Symbian, and 1% Palm OS to squabble over. They would need to get 8% out of the remaining 15%, and that's only if iOS and Android don't gain any additional market share.

If your prediction happens, great.
But I have my doubts. :hmm:

You're leaving out the many millions of people that still have dumbphones. That's how Android got its marketshare - Apple is selling more phones than ever, RIM is still very close to its peak - Android got market share by tapping the market of new smartphone buyers. And there is still a ton more where that came from. That's the market Microsoft is targeting with solid low priced devices like the Nokia Lumia 710 or the Samsung Focus Flash.

 

[kaerflog]

I was actually looking forward to getting my first WP7 in 2012 but then we have Android with ICS and higher resolution screen 1280x720.
Being a phone nerd, I can't force myself to get a WP7 with a 3.7" screen and still the same 800x480 resolution.
I still maintain that a main reason why WP7 do not sell well is its not aesthetically as good looking as Android and iOS.
People do not want plain colored tiles.
Make the home screen more attractive.

 

[lothar]

You're leaving out the many millions of people that still have dumbphones. That's how Android got its marketshare - Apple is selling more phones than ever, RIM is still very close to its peak - Android got market share by tapping the market of new smartphone buyers. And there is still a ton more where that came from. That's the market Microsoft is targeting with solid low priced devices like the Nokia Lumia 710 or the Samsung Focus Flash.

True, I forgot about those people. I used to be one of them until September this year.

Android had it easy in that Market because they were the only one there. Microsoft won't.
During the time of Android, the choice was a $200+ iPhone smartphone ON contract; while Android entered into the $100 or less, "Free", and "$0.01" market with ease and virtually no competition.
Microsoft is about to enter that same market, but they have competition already there and that's Android.

All those research from Gartner and others telling me that Microsoft will conquer 50+% of the smartphone market by 2014, I'm doubtful on.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Global smartphone penetration is just 10% at this point, there's a hell of a lot of growth to be had out there.

http://www.asymco.com/2011/12/13/global-smartphone-penetration-below-10/

That's going to lead to continued insane growth in the industry... We tend to get all focused on the US market, myself included, but the world is a big place.

 

[Bateluer]

Global smartphone penetration is just 10% at this point, there's a hell of a lot of growth to be had out there.

http://www.asymco.com/2011/12/13/global-smartphone-penetration-below-10/

That's going to lead to continued insane growth in the industry... We tend to get all focused on the US market, myself included, but the world is a big place.

Imagine the cash to be had by charging by the kilobyte!

 

[Fox5]

And notice there aren't very many commercials going on right now... promoting WP7. They did do that demo to "try out WP7 on your phone" via that website on iOS and Android devices... which just confirms everyone's hatred with this "new OS".

I think MS is about to kill it. They're not what they projected, and my guess is that they are WAY off. Perhaps over 20% off of their projections... probably more. Which means: their 5-year-catch-up-plan will need to take A LOT longer, and may just bankrupt MS. Windows 8 is also banking on this interface, which may lead to "let's scrap this whole -metro ui- idea and build from our roots to stay profitable."

I'd say, by this time next year, we will have WP7 fire sale going on. It's a pitty too, such an innovative and ambition project, that would've rivaled the top dogs.

The fact of the matter is: It's too difficult for first time smartphone users to use, and everyone else is already on Android or iOS. It's picking up the scrap of people who do NOT like iOS, but wants the "smoothness" and the fast touch response of it. It's also picking up people who are tired of Android's fragmentation and "force closes".

So even though I'm all for WP7 to take off, it's not going to. Many people who have seen it doesn't seem to be very impressed by it.... Maybe approximately 5-10% would stop and say "wow that's nice" - while the rest will just "why boxes on my home screen? I want weather, the time, I want to customize!"

I'm guessing MS is already planning their exit-strategy...

So I've got to say, I HATE the metro UI. I've only used it on the Windows 8 preview (and not a phone), but while it is flashy and fun, it is sooooo slow. And yes, I was using it on a tablet. After the aw of "wow, that LOOKS cool", I felt myself wishing "man, I wish they could just turn off the animations and shrink the icons down to something usable! I want to get things done!" The OS isn't important, it's the applications, whether it's a phone or a computer, and I want the OS to organize my apps and get out of my way as quick as possible so I can get back to my apps. The Metro UI fails horribly in this.

If Microsoft, RIM, Sony, etc were smart they would try to be premier Android vendors, the way Nokia is for Windows phone. Microsoft could sell an Android phone, but be the only Android phones with full microsoft office, or stock them up with top of the line hardware and go as a premium brand. RIM should make android with blackberry services on top. Sony should really put a lot more weight behind the gaming portion of their phones and become the premier gaming platform on cell phones.

 

[podspi]

Assuming Microsoft can get developers on board, they aren't too late. The smartphone and tablet market are expanding rapidly, which means Microsoft can get marketshare w/out stealing from established players. That's good because once you have a library of paid apps, you are much less likely to jump ship.

Heck, I am very interested in WP7, and even I second guess it because I've spent maybe $20, $30 dollars on apps.

 

[arod]

So I've got to say, I HATE the metro UI. I've only used it on the Windows 8 preview (and not a phone), but while it is flashy and fun, it is sooooo slow. And yes, I was using it on a tablet. After the aw of "wow, that LOOKS cool", I felt myself wishing "man, I wish they could just turn off the animations and shrink the icons down to something usable! I want to get things done!" The OS isn't important, it's the applications, whether it's a phone or a computer, and I want the OS to organize my apps and get out of my way as quick as possible so I can get back to my apps. The Metro UI fails horribly in this.

If Microsoft, RIM, Sony, etc were smart they would try to be premier Android vendors, the way Nokia is for Windows phone. Microsoft could sell an Android phone, but be the only Android phones with full microsoft office, or stock them up with top of the line hardware and go as a premium brand. RIM should make android with blackberry services on top. Sony should really put a lot more weight behind the gaming portion of their phones and become the premier gaming platform on cell phones.

Just my opinion here but hell no.... android is the worst possible thing to build off (all the crappy android phones out there are just a testament to this). The only good android phones are the nexus line and oddly enough those are the ones google mandates you have to leave stock.

 

[BladeVenom]

All those research from Gartner and others telling me that Microsoft will conquer 50+% of the smartphone market by 2014, I'm doubtful on.

Last year they said it was going to flop like the Kin. They also said Symbian was going to be the market leader in 2014. http://www.informationweek.com/news/security/reviews/227700245

 

[lothar]

So I've got to say, I HATE the metro UI. I've only used it on the Windows 8 preview (and not a phone), but while it is flashy and fun, it is sooooo slow. And yes, I was using it on a tablet. After the aw of "wow, that LOOKS cool", I felt myself wishing "man, I wish they could just turn off the animations and shrink the icons down to something usable! I want to get things done!" The OS isn't important, it's the applications, whether it's a phone or a computer, and I want the OS to organize my apps and get out of my way as quick as possible so I can get back to my apps. The Metro UI fails horribly in this.

If Microsoft, RIM, Sony, etc were smart they would try to be premier Android vendors, the way Nokia is for Windows phone. Microsoft could sell an Android phone, but be the only Android phones with full Microsoft office, or stock them up with top of the line hardware and go as a premium brand. RIM should make android with blackberry services on top. Sony should really put a lot more weight behind the gaming portion of their phones and become the premier gaming platform on cell phones.

The most stupid idea I've ever heard yet.
I own some shares in Microsoft and I'm thankful you're not on their executive board.

 

[lothar]

Last year they said it was going to flop like the Kin. They also said Symbian was going to be the market leader in 2014. http://www.informationweek.com/news/security/reviews/227700245

Gartner Estimates on September 10, 2010
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1434613

Gartner Estimates on April 7, 2011 (exactly 7 months later)
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1622614
http://www.dailytech.com/Gartner+Es...be+2+in+Market+Share+By+2015/article21318.htm

I was wrong in my earlier number. I confused their 50% prediction of Android with Microsoft.
That said, I still doubt their analysis that Microsoft will be #2...Only way that can happen is if Apple stays headstrong in their old ways and decide not to release any any phones <$200 or compete in that market.

 

[TheStu]

Gartner Estimates on September 10, 2010
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1434613

Gartner Estimates on April 7, 2011 (exactly 7 months later)
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1622614
http://www.dailytech.com/Gartner+Es...be+2+in+Market+Share+By+2015/article21318.htm

I was wrong in my earlier number. I confused their 50% prediction of Android with Microsoft.
That said, I still doubt their analysis that Microsoft will be #2...Only way that can happen is if Apple stays headstrong in their old ways and decide not to release any any phones <$200 or compete in that market.

iPhone 4s: $199, $299, $399
iPhone 4: $99
iPhone 3GS: $0

They are already competing at that level.

I just want to see some more handsets out there. I like my Surround's screen size, and although the kickstand and speaker are cool, I would rather have something a little thinner that didn't have a slide action to it. My friend is headed to the UK and France in the Spring, i am <this> close to handing him hundreds of dollars before he leaves and asking him to bring me back a Lumia 800.

I think that part of the problem is marketing, sure. But part of it also is salesperson education. A lot of people apparently still think that Windows Phone 7 is just Windows Mobile 7. It doesn't help that I call it WinMoPho because it is funny.

 

[smartpatrol]

You think they will go from 2% to 10% market share in 12 months?
That's one hell of a prediction.

For them to do that, RIM would virtually have to be dead.
The following are facts: They certainly won't steal much of any market share from iOS or Android.
That leaves them the current 10% market share of RIM, 3% WM, 1% Symbian, and 1% Palm OS to squabble over. They would need to get 8% out of the remaining 15%, and that's only if iOS and Android don't gain any additional market share.

If your prediction happens, great.
But I have my doubts. :hmm:

If Microsoft and Nokia advertise the hell out of it, I honestly think 10% is achievable in 2011. Lumia 800 is already selling very well in Europe.

Think about it:
- RIM is bleeding marketshare like crazy. So is Symbian
- more than 50% of smartphone/cellphone users will be up for an upgrade in 2012
- the smartphone market is still growing like crazy and has a long way to go

It's still not too late to grab a decent chunk of the market IF Microsoft finally gets serious about it.

 

[McWatt]

Based on the market share graph linked earlier in the thread and the fact that the platform was launched right at the end of 2010, WP7's trajectory is so far indistinguishable from Android's first year. If it continues to follow that pattern, it will hit ~9% next year.

The market is different now, but as others have pointed out, it's growing very rapidly so growth isn't a zero sum game.

 

[notposting]

They have a couple problems, perception being one. Talking with a buddy the other day, he's an iFan, works in a school district IT dept. He and his coworkers have no idea what Windows Phone is, said his bosses wife tried one, hated it, going to iPhone. I asked which one...he checked...it was the HTC Snap. Yep, a Windows Mobile phone from early 2009. Everyone I know who has had a WinMo phone absolutely loathed them by the end. So they desperately need to communicate that this is different and better.

And communicate what's different and better from the other mobile OS's as well. Even on here, it seems haven't used them enough to get a good idea of what you can do with them. The plain colored tiles...usually aren't. Most of them are updating, animating, it's aaaalive You can change them up to suit your needs and desires...I have the Phone (updates to show any missed calls and voicemails), People (like Contacts, but with WP7, each one is much more in depth and centralized) which animates a 3x3 grid with different contacts, sometime one will get a 2x2 square, the HTC weather tile, Messaging (text, facebook, windows live) and Gchat, a linked Inbox (Gmail, Hotmail, and Yahoo) showing how many unread mail, my wife and her sister (babysitter) contacts (which show any communication from them but default to their contact pictures), IE, the Pictures hub (which cycles through my favorites, which also double as the background in the hub), Zune (which shows the last artist I played), Marketplace (which shows if there are any updates), and Calendar (with today and tomorrows schedule). And then I can swipe over and either scroll the app list or hit a letter to bring up the alphabet grid and go there....fast and easy.

I would go to iPhone before I go back to Android, for sure. Hoping VZW gets a good WP7 model this spring. Just got my upgrade renewal yesterday...I should buy the Nexus and then sell it heh.

I like WP7...fast and smooth AND it seems like I can get in and out of things quickly and easily, everything is integrated well. *shrug*

 

[GTaudiophile]

I played with a WP7 phone in Germany a year ago and immediately felt it to be more polished than my GF's Nexus One.

What is keeping me from buying a WP7 phone?

1. Seemingly lack of selection, especially high-spec versions.
2. Turn-by-turn direction capability not as good as competition?
3. Very little experience "playing" with one. No friends have one. Whereas I have played with many iPhones and Android phones.
4. App catalog.

 

[hanoverphist]

Hell, look at how much flack Apple got over the 4s. Despite being heavily upgraded with its internals, because it more or less looks identical on the outside to the 4, aside from a few antenna tweaks, people still complain about it.

there are very valid problems with the new set of phones, but mostly it is software, not hardware related. their tech support staff had mandatory OT last time i checked, just to deal with that crap.

 

[notposting]

I played with a WP7 phone in Germany a year ago and immediately felt it to be more polished than my GF's Nexus One.

What is keeping me from buying a WP7 phone?

1. Seemingly lack of selection, especially high-spec versions.
2. Turn-by-turn direction capability not as good as competition?
3. Very little experience "playing" with one. No friends have one. Whereas I have played with many iPhones and Android phones.
4. App catalog.

1. Not seemingly...Verizon has one dang phone. And it was 6 months old when it launched on them. It's roughly the same internals as that Nexus One/Droid Incredible.
2. I think so, though to be honest I was also let down by a dedicated GPS after using Google Nav on my Droid. Add true offline maps to that (not this piecemeal effort, just let me add whole map packs) and rubberband routing and I think it would be best in class. I do like Bing maps on the phone but it doesn't compare.
3. Hard to convince someone when they can't play with it. As far as I can tell, most/all VZW stores don't even have active data on their display phones.
4. Getting there, slowly. Valid point above about costs. I have absolutely no problems at the 0.99 or 1.49 range...when things get up to $3-5 it adds a lot of hesitation. Will take more marketshare.

 

[finbarqs]

there are very valid problems with the new set of phones, but mostly it is software, not hardware related. their tech support staff had mandatory OT last time i checked, just to deal with that crap.

and yet, it's still IS the BIGGEST selling iPhone. If Apple can turn crap to gold... then why can't MS do something with WP7?

Anyways, people with "dumbphones" are less likely to adopt WP7 and more likely to adopt iPhone/Android - because of it's simplistic 'grid o' icons' nature. The metro UI is very intimidating and has a learning curve (albeit steep for none power users) and will most likely turn to a grid of icons. This is the "Show me the app" mentality!

WP7 has interesting and fun right now because it's new (to me at least). But if all 3 OS's came out at the same time, Grid of icons will beat live tiles every time -- especially for new users.

 

[hanoverphist]

and yet, it's still IS the BIGGEST selling iPhone. If Apple can turn crap to gold... then why can't MS do something with WP7?

i totally agree. i was just saying there have been tons of complaints about the 4s since they came out.

Anyways, people with "dumbphones" are less likely to adopt WP7 and more likely to adopt iPhone/Android - because of it's simplistic 'grid o' icons' nature. The metro UI is very intimidating and has a learning curve (albeit steep for none power users) and will most likely turn to a grid of icons. This is the "Show me the app" mentality!

WP7 has interesting and fun right now because it's new (to me at least). But if all 3 OS's came out at the same time, Grid of icons will beat live tiles every time -- especially for new users.

totally agree with this stuff too.

i like wp7 personally, and if there were new wp7 phones on vzw id try to get one. that doesnt mean its for everyone, and most people that are coming into the smartphone game now will be more comfy with their first experience, which will likely be a friends phone.

 

[RedRooster]

and yet, it's still IS the BIGGEST selling iPhone. If Apple can turn crap to gold... then why can't MS do something with WP7?

Anyways, people with "dumbphones" are less likely to adopt WP7 and more likely to adopt iPhone/Android - because of it's simplistic 'grid o' icons' nature. The metro UI is very intimidating and has a learning curve (albeit steep for none power users) and will most likely turn to a grid of icons. This is the "Show me the app" mentality!

WP7 has interesting and fun right now because it's new (to me at least). But if all 3 OS's came out at the same time, Grid of icons will beat live tiles every time -- especially for new users.

To be fair, its more the folders/organization options that is good, not the grid of icons. If new users have four pages of unfoldered apps on iPhone and scroll left and right to get to them all the time, its not much different than having to scroll up and down to get to the tiles on the WP7 homescreen IMO. I've used both extensively, and really see the layout as about equal. Other than the colorful graphics of the icons, which for some is huge I suppose.

 

[finbarqs]

yeah, but scrolling through a long list is much more tedious than scrolling through a huge long list.

I have unfoldered apps on my iphone, and scrolling left and right isn't bad. But I think you're one of the "power users" who understands a thing or 2 about electronics. (To be honest, it's all logical, but modern people don't like to "think")

I personally like the Metro UI, but I can definitely say it's not for the lay-person!

 

[Deeko]

yeah, but scrolling through a long list is much more tedious than scrolling through a huge long list.

I have unfoldered apps on my iphone, and scrolling left and right isn't bad. But I think you're one of the "power users" who understands a thing or 2 about electronics. (To be honest, it's all logical, but modern people don't like to "think")

I personally like the Metro UI, but I can definitely say it's not for the lay-person!

Mango added the long list selector to your app list - you can get to just about any app on the phone with 3 taps. Touch a letter header to bring up the alphabet, touch the letter of the app you want to jump to that portion of the list, touch the app to open it. Same interface they had for selecting artists/songs in the ZuneHD (and those are MUCH longer lists). It works really well.

Frankly, Metro was designed for the average person, not the power user. My mom can barely find her away around a computer (she still uses AOL even though she has broadband because she refuses to learn how to use a normal browser), and she just got the Samsung Focus Flash - she loves it, and figured out how to use it no problem.