- Apr 28, 2024
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This is a joke thread !!
Please don't comment 🤪🙏
Please don't comment 🤪🙏
Need a thread for how much vram is too much vram 😉
Need a thread for how much vram is too much vram 😉
My revised estimations / guesstimates (no LLMs used)
Imagine this line-up (in 2027)
- AT0
- 10090xt+ — Multiple models starting at $1500 plus and huge vram like Radeon VII or titan
- AT1
- 10080xt — scrapped (Lisa Su took her toys & went home)
- AT2 (gddr7)
- 10070 xtx 24gb = $700 (~5080)
- 10070 xt 20gb = $600 (~5070 ti)
- 10070 gre 16gb = $500 (~5070 super)
- AT3 (lpddr6)
- 10060 xt 24gb = $450 (~5070)
- 10060 16gb = $400 (~5060ti 16gb)
- AT4 (lpddr6/lpddr5x)
- 10050xt 32gb = $350 (~9060xt 16gb)
- 10050xt 24gb = $300 (~9060)
- 10040xt 16gb = $250 (~3060 12gb in raster)
I know what you are thinking of. But does that work today as good as in the past? Anybody can pull out ChatGPT to ask for the better GPU (and might get the correct answer - or not).
For example, the megapixel race has pretty much ended. Many new phones and cameras get released with fewer pixels than their predecessor. People either gained more knowledge (more pixels != more quality), simply don't care because good enough or are not interested in technical details.
Higher VRAM amounts on lower end parts make the more expensive ones less attractive as well.
Watched the vid and analysed it. This might be a little crazy but there are multiple issues (*) with it and this needs to be adressed:
The following is not in order.
*Calls out @Kepler_L2 for speculating that CDNA5 WGP mode could be brought to RDNA 5, when it's tech media being irresponsible and careless and reporting on it as fact. Also MLID isn't exactly a saint and overhypes AMD products. N2X and +7ghz Zen 6 on consumer come on.
Shares renderer of die
Reveals up to date specs
Shares BOM estimates for all PS6 gem SoCs. Used $20K wafer prices for N3P. Without AMD markup.
And lists likely PS5 Canis handheld and home console price ranges and Orion (PS6) price range.
My extrapolated die size for PS6 Orion around 270-280mm^2 or -10% vs launch PS5 on N7.
*The pricing estimate for PS5 SoC at launch is bizarre. Like N16 N7 had excellent ramp and d0 reduction curve. D0 below 0.1 in mid to late 2020. N7 stable at ~$10K/wafer since forever which would put SoC price at ~$60 not $105.
*No emphasis on retailer and distributor pricing overhead. This would sour selling at at lower price estimate even further.
Thinks Canis needs 24-36GB based on dev feedback
Reiterates claims about Sony wanting to bury PS4 for good.
*Game devs think console needs well above 30GB to run nextgen games, base this on current factors and doesn't include forward looking functionality. A few examples:
#1: LLMs in 2030s will be nothing like the ones in 2025. Look at token/$ and accuracy progress for mini-versions of LLMs, it's very fast. Devs could get away with tiny models in the future.
#2: GPU workgraphs (50-70X reduction in scratch buffers)
#3: Smarter and lower footprint BVH frameworks
#4: Neural compression for assets and textures. NTC is just the beginning everything will prob be AI compressed going forward.
#5: Smarter asset loading (Sampler Feedback streaming+ etc...)
With the rendering side changes at iso-fidelity VRAM usage can shrink >10X. Leaves plenty of room for the LLMs and Cerny def knows this since AMD is spearheading GPU workgraphs and they're collaborating on Project Amethyst.
*Not sure but it sounds like he thinks they'll go 40-48GB on PS6 Orion and Xbox Magnus. For Orion this requires 4GB x 5 clamshell over 160bit bus pr 4GB x 6 clamshell over 192bit bus. This isn't happening.This would end budget gaming for good and the nextgen consoles. $/GB isn't dropping remotely fast enough to make this a reality.
Why is AMD using LPDDR for dGPUs now...and not before? (Timestamped video)
You mean gddr 73Gb chips on every tier would be sufficient currently.
e.g. 24GB on a 256bit memory interface, 18GB on a 192bit interface etc.
Whatever (higher density or more chips) gets us to that amount of VRAM or more would be sufficient.You mean gddr 7
But next medusa halo (10060xt) & medusa premium (this is used in xbox handhelds / series S, 10050xt) comes with lpddr RAM
AMD could use vram as a marketing tactic. (Hint the newly revealed 7700 16gb)
3Gb chips on every tier would be sufficient currently.
e.g. 24GB on a 256bit memory interface, 18GB on a 192bit interface etc.
So you're telling me that NVidia will cut busses down to 96 or 64-bit because some people will insist that 8 GB is more than enough VRAM.