Lemon law
Lifer
Its always been somewhat of an US myth---that we will decide when the leave Iraq. And the hope is that will we will leave when a grateful Iraqi democracy can be viable domestically and internationally.
With almost no thought given that we will be forced out like Israel and later Syria were in Lebanon. Or the Soviet Union was in Afghanistan.
Four recent developments lead me to question the myth of the USA being the decider.
1. We are trying the mini-surge---the brainchild of General Pertraeos---with said general giving a surge only a 25% chance of working. But as the mini-surge progresses, we are now drawing fire from entrenched Shia majority South of Baghdad. And it has been answered by a challenge from AL-Sadr---who from an undisclosed location now calls for the Shia to unite in opposing the American Occupation--and take a brief respite from killing their Sunni breathern---and the Sunni may then join in a temporary truce with Shia so they too can join in the general carnage. And the fight could quickly degenerate into urban fighting---punishing for Iraqi and US personnel with death tolls going sky high. With US troops almost forced into the urban meatgrinder---with the alternative being retreat to base and leave the entire rest of the country in insurgent hands.
2. Some Alawi relative is releasing a detailed 500 page history of how US incompetence lost Iraq---with the thesis being, by 2007, the Iraqi people had lost all faith in the US. Before such contentions were manifest but never well documented. And now it will be. How that will play in the mid-east will be anyones guess, But if it becomes a regional bible among the intellectuals, the rage will filter to the masses with better focus. With a comrades we have been betrayed type message likely to emerge.
3. With the Brits soon to withdraw---any myth of a coalition in Iraq will soon be history. And the side drama of reining in the Iranians is now in shambles. With the Iranians now openly defying the UN by claiming they have more Uranium enrichment capacity than they have. With the US in a poor position to do much about Iran without openly attacking Iran.
Any window to use diplomacy with Iran is rapidly closing.---and GWB is hardly the negotiations President. With the time ripe for a new Nasser type to sweep the fancy of many with a message of Arab or mid-east unity.
4. Iran and other countries are rapidly losing faith that GWB can keep the lid on in Iraq.
And all neighboring countries have a worse case scenario they really fear. With the Kurds being one of the real jokers in the deck. And if they choose this opportune moment to set up their own State, they have enough present oil wealth to finance the purchase of modern weapons in large and effective numbers. Causing Turkey to go ape, possibly Western Iran, and in a very short time a variety of neighboring Countries could be moving either their own armies or start engaging in the wholesale arming of various groups inside Iraq with heavy wepons. Starting a chain reaction fast tracking the whole region to a war and loot footing. Which fails to mention the possibility that allies like Sadie Arabia or others could be toppled in a wave of anti-US popular opinion---either before or after an Iraqi civil war starts.
Which could change the entire debate in Washington between a congress and GWB---as it suddenly dawns on everyone---it not a matter of stay the course---or cutting troop funding---setting up new plan---it becomes a matter if we can get our troops out alive before the whole place is a blaze.
I hope I am wrong---but I see that as an ever increasing possibility.
With almost no thought given that we will be forced out like Israel and later Syria were in Lebanon. Or the Soviet Union was in Afghanistan.
Four recent developments lead me to question the myth of the USA being the decider.
1. We are trying the mini-surge---the brainchild of General Pertraeos---with said general giving a surge only a 25% chance of working. But as the mini-surge progresses, we are now drawing fire from entrenched Shia majority South of Baghdad. And it has been answered by a challenge from AL-Sadr---who from an undisclosed location now calls for the Shia to unite in opposing the American Occupation--and take a brief respite from killing their Sunni breathern---and the Sunni may then join in a temporary truce with Shia so they too can join in the general carnage. And the fight could quickly degenerate into urban fighting---punishing for Iraqi and US personnel with death tolls going sky high. With US troops almost forced into the urban meatgrinder---with the alternative being retreat to base and leave the entire rest of the country in insurgent hands.
2. Some Alawi relative is releasing a detailed 500 page history of how US incompetence lost Iraq---with the thesis being, by 2007, the Iraqi people had lost all faith in the US. Before such contentions were manifest but never well documented. And now it will be. How that will play in the mid-east will be anyones guess, But if it becomes a regional bible among the intellectuals, the rage will filter to the masses with better focus. With a comrades we have been betrayed type message likely to emerge.
3. With the Brits soon to withdraw---any myth of a coalition in Iraq will soon be history. And the side drama of reining in the Iranians is now in shambles. With the Iranians now openly defying the UN by claiming they have more Uranium enrichment capacity than they have. With the US in a poor position to do much about Iran without openly attacking Iran.
Any window to use diplomacy with Iran is rapidly closing.---and GWB is hardly the negotiations President. With the time ripe for a new Nasser type to sweep the fancy of many with a message of Arab or mid-east unity.
4. Iran and other countries are rapidly losing faith that GWB can keep the lid on in Iraq.
And all neighboring countries have a worse case scenario they really fear. With the Kurds being one of the real jokers in the deck. And if they choose this opportune moment to set up their own State, they have enough present oil wealth to finance the purchase of modern weapons in large and effective numbers. Causing Turkey to go ape, possibly Western Iran, and in a very short time a variety of neighboring Countries could be moving either their own armies or start engaging in the wholesale arming of various groups inside Iraq with heavy wepons. Starting a chain reaction fast tracking the whole region to a war and loot footing. Which fails to mention the possibility that allies like Sadie Arabia or others could be toppled in a wave of anti-US popular opinion---either before or after an Iraqi civil war starts.
Which could change the entire debate in Washington between a congress and GWB---as it suddenly dawns on everyone---it not a matter of stay the course---or cutting troop funding---setting up new plan---it becomes a matter if we can get our troops out alive before the whole place is a blaze.
I hope I am wrong---but I see that as an ever increasing possibility.