Hence, "praying hail mary chance." I was using Bradley effect as what it represents, not the history behind how it was created.Originally posted by: midway
That's unlikely, as the Bradley Effect didn't even happen to Bradley. The article I linked to is an article written by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr. who was George Deukmejian's general election poster, twice. According to their own internal polling immediately preceding the election the race was basically a tie, it was 45-44 Bradley on the 1st of November.Originally posted by: JS80
It's sad to say that at this point I don't even think if Obama was in Ayers' basement making bombs as an 8 year old, or wrote Rev Wright's hate ministries, it would matter at all to voters. The only praying hail mary chance is for the Bradley effect to be true.
The Bradley effect is based on the fact that Mervin Field, a prominent pollster at the time, had Bradley up by 7 points, however this was an outlier. But Field, being a prominent man, was able to get all over the media with his predictions. Unfortunately when he was wrong he cited "race [as] a factor in the Bradley loss" without backing it up with any data whatsoever, looking back it seems that the "Bradley effect" was merely caused by poor sampling methodology by Field.
Just got married, haven't started yet. Give it a few years.Originally posted by: dahunan
When did you stop beating your wife?
When did you start having sex with men?