How many years till OpenCL achieves peak popularity in software?

[cbn]

Please cast your vote.

I am also interested to hear any comments, caveats or criticism you have.

 

[Nemesis 1]

I went 0-2 because of Apple . That will push the other platiform or they lose market share

 

[Arkadrel]

MS have dx... they ll make sure its more used than opengl.

mac/linux people probably wish Opengl would get more popular, because it d help them sell the idea of their OSs and probably mean more games ect => more people useing their OSes.

If apple gets opengl to work well... I could see them stealing some market share from MS. Amoung casual people that are gamers ect. Linux is like... a chicken without a head, theres just no direction with it, theres 1000s of differnt versions, non of which are polished enough. Linux would need 1 clear direction everyone agreed on and all sticked with, and everyone worked on same version to get it polished (this 1000's differnt directions thingy is killing any chance linux ever had of being a competitive product).

I wouldnt bet against MS... dont think theyd give up without a fight. Directx probably isnt loseing grounds to opengl (ever) simply because MS will put alot of resources into keeping it at the top.

that said.. if enough of the market decide that opengl is the way to go... things might just go that way. It would take alot of the market standing together against directx for it to work though.

 

[Absolution75]

it takes 2-4 years for a major directx version to take root

i went with >6 years because of the above - and because its a fairly new concept still (i give it 2 more years before it starts to pick up at all).

 

[Idontcare]

it takes 2-4 years for a major directx version to take root

i went with >6 years because of the above - and because its a fairly new concept still (i give it 2 more years before it starts to pick up at all).

lol, my exact vote and reasoning as well, exactly.

 

[Falloutboy]

multi core cpu really hasn't fully caught on yet so it will be a while

 

[Nemesis 1]

I still see Apple and intel working closely on open cl . Intel was tring to move away from
from x86 enter Itanic . AMD and MS workered closely together Against Intel on AMD64 . I think Intel is the one began the work on opencl . I think when Apple gave the Boot TO IBM . (The crowed applauds) and went with Intel. Intel talked Jobs into open cl.

I think Apple is ready for open cl . If Apple can get Open Cl woking well on apps in combination with AVX . I think Apple can give MS fits and intel will have a payback day for both AMD and MS. I also think Apple is retarded if they don't buy AMD. I think this is more intersting than any period in software history ,

 

[peonyu]

In portable devices, obviously its a different ballgame than Desktops. 1-2 years is reasonable for OpenCL to become widespread. Desktops ? MS is still king. They may lose marketshare in 10 years time, but I dont see Microsoft losing enough to make OpenCL widespread outside of the portable market. Desktop wise OpenGL peaked nearly 10 years ago and then declined to where it is today...Relegated to Linux, Mac, and a few apps that support it on Windows [which combined is barely 10% of the desktop market].