How many votes are the Dems giving up with a female and minority as their lead candidates?

[StageLeft]

If there was ever election handed to the democrats on a silver platter, it was this one, but will they take full advantage of it? I see no gain from having a female and minority as the lead candidates; I do not see many people literally switching party lines, once each party's nominee is selected, to vote for a woman or a minority, but what about people on the fence deliberately avoiding voting for either one?

This poll asks people the question and according to it, a woman and Black are at a slight, not major disadvantage, because only some small amount outright claim they will not vote for a woman or Black.

However, what people say they would do and what they do are different things. When push comes to shove, people's deep-down emotions may be different than their surface ones. Importantly, this poll shows that a mere 56% of Americans think the country is ready to elect a woman or Black. So, the nation thinks everyone else is less likely than people themselves think they are. One side seems it has to be wrong, since the polls do not mesh. But, nobody likes to be on a losing side and I expect some people will not vote/support a woman or Black in part because they think the two candidates will lose, so there may be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Hillary and Obama have the best odds in recent memory of a woman or Black becoming president, but besides the fact it would make an interesting historical footnote, I think overall it doesn't help the democrats.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
If there was ever election handed to the democrats on a silver platter, it was this one, but will they take full advantage of it? I see no gain from having a female and minority as the lead candidates; I do not see many people literally switching party lines, once each party's nominee is selected, to vote for a woman or a minority, but what about people on the fence deliberately avoiding voting for either one?

This poll asks people the question and according to it, a woman and Black are at a slight, not major disadvantage, because only some small amount outright claim they will not vote for a woman or Black.

However, what people say they would do and what they do are different things. When push comes to shove, people's deep-down emotions may be different than their surface ones. Importantly, this poll shows that a mere 56% of Americans think the country is ready to elect a woman or Black. So, the nation thinks everyone else is less likely than people themselves think they are. One side seems it has to be wrong, since the polls do not mesh. But, nobody likes to be on a losing side and I expect some people will not vote/support a woman or Black in part because they think the two candidates will lose, so there may be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Hillary and Obama have the best odds in recent memory of a woman or Black becoming president, but besides the fact it would make an interesting historical footnote, I think overall it doesn't help the democrats.

Sadly it speaks very sadly about the integrity and character of certain people that still call themselves Americans but certainly do not hold American values at all.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Some also do not equate popularity with quality.

 

[Rainsford]

The strategy doesn't have to involve people literally switching party lines, remember, the makeup of the electorate doesn't have to represent the makeup of the population as a whole. While bringing more voters to your side is one approach to winning an election, another is to bring more of your supporters to the voting booth in the first place. This strategy worked very well for Bush in 2004, he didn't win over any moderates or liberals, but he did manage to get more conservatives to vote. Even a politician who is less popular with the public at large can win if all of his supporters vote and fewer of his opponents supporters do.

Obama and especially Hillary are going to have that affect on the makeup of the voting population. While Hillary seems horribly divisive among the usual voters for some reason, if she's a candidate, she will bring MANY people to the table interested in seeing a female President. She doesn't have to win over all the old crusty Republicans who would rather vote for Osama bin Laden than Hillary Clinton, because she'll bring a lot of new Democratic voters to the booths...possibly enough to win. Obama has much the same advantage, while on the Republican side there is no electorate shifting personality like that. The Republican candidates almost universally seem like more of the same, and while that is probably enough to have a healthy level of support, it's not enough to bring in millions of Republican types who just haven't voted before.

 

[1EZduzit]

Although I'm sure a Hillary/Obama ticket will cost some votes, it will pick up some also.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: Rainsford
Obama and especially Hillary are going to have that affect on the makeup of the voting population. While Hillary seems horribly divisive among the usual voters for some reason, if she's a candidate, she will bring MANY people to the table interested in seeing a female President. She doesn't have to win over all the old crusty Republicans who would rather vote for Osama bin Laden than Hillary Clinton, because she'll bring a lot of new Democratic voters to the booths...possibly enough to win.

One little problem with your theory, Rainsford. The young Democratic voters who keep promising to vote every cycle almost never show up. The older folks who absolutely despise Hillary will be out in massive numbers guaranteed. Turning out the vote is much more difficult with young people than it is with older people.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: Rainsford
Obama and especially Hillary are going to have that affect on the makeup of the voting population. While Hillary seems horribly divisive among the usual voters for some reason, if she's a candidate, she will bring MANY people to the table interested in seeing a female President. She doesn't have to win over all the old crusty Republicans who would rather vote for Osama bin Laden than Hillary Clinton, because she'll bring a lot of new Democratic voters to the booths...possibly enough to win.

One little problem with your theory, Rainsford. The young Democratic voters who keep promising to vote every cycle almost never show up. The older folks who absolutely despise Hillary will be out in massive numbers guaranteed. Turning out the vote is much more difficult with young people than it is with older people.

Sadly, that's very true.

Don't forget that there are also lots of older folks who don't vote all the time who might get riled up enough (with a little prodding from the GOP political machine of course) to come out and vote against Hillary

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: Rainsford
Obama and especially Hillary are going to have that affect on the makeup of the voting population. While Hillary seems horribly divisive among the usual voters for some reason, if she's a candidate, she will bring MANY people to the table interested in seeing a female President. She doesn't have to win over all the old crusty Republicans who would rather vote for Osama bin Laden than Hillary Clinton, because she'll bring a lot of new Democratic voters to the booths...possibly enough to win.

One little problem with your theory, Rainsford. The young Democratic voters who keep promising to vote every cycle almost never show up. The older folks who absolutely despise Hillary will be out in massive numbers guaranteed. Turning out the vote is much more difficult with young people than it is with older people.

Indeed, but I'm not talking about young people, I'm talking about women/minorities/people who want to see those two groups have more representation. Appealing to young people doesn't seem to work for the Democrats, but appealing to women and minorities to a greater extent might. If anything, the people who despise Hillary are HELPING the Democrats. There is a perception, right or wrong, that the fanatical opposition to Hillary is because she's a woman, which is going to piss off a lot of women and bring a lot of them to the voting booths. Democrats have a significant advantage with women, something that will only become more of an advantage with a female candidate, getting more of them to vote would be a big help. As for the opposition to Hillary, that seems to mostly come from Republicans who are already likely voters...and who probably wouldn't vote for a Democrat anyways. You guys make a lot of noise, but I'm not sure how much it will reflect the actual reality of the election.

 

[Jaskalas]

The fact that so few turn out to vote, making turnout decide more than the will of the nation, is a sad testament to our society.

How distant must we be, from our monolithic government?

 

[Moonbeam]

The Democrats will bring a Save our Genetic Health ammendment to the Constitution banning Christians from being allowed to get married and bringing millions of Atheists and Agnostics and people of good sense to the poles who will also vote Democratic.

 

[Moonbeam]

Skoorb, like Vic, you seem to have some interesting insights into human nature, and like him, also, in my opinion, accept their truth without a potential further insight or deeper understanding that, in my opinion, does illuminate why people are as you describe.

Scoorb: However, what people say they would do and what they do are different things.

M: I say that people are unconscious of their real motivations.

S: When push comes to shove, people's deep-down emotions may be different than their surface ones.

M: I say that people do not know what they feel.

S: Importantly, this poll shows that a mere 56% of Americans think the country is ready to elect a woman or Black. So, the nation thinks everyone else is less likely than people themselves think they are.

M: I say that people project onto others what they are really feeling themselves.

S: One side seems it has to be wrong, since the polls do not mesh. But, nobody likes to be on a losing side and I expect some people will not vote/support a woman or Black in part because they think the two candidates will lose, so there may be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

M: I say that people feel they are losers and do whatever they can to avoid that feeling.

If people were all put down and made to feel worthless as children, if that pain was to great to consciously bare, if our self contempt was buried deeply beneath a false conforming ego that pretends its better than OK, the kind of phenomenon you describe here will make perfect sense, and I submit to you that what I say is the actual reason for the reality you see.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: Rainsford
Obama and especially Hillary are going to have that affect on the makeup of the voting population. While Hillary seems horribly divisive among the usual voters for some reason, if she's a candidate, she will bring MANY people to the table interested in seeing a female President. She doesn't have to win over all the old crusty Republicans who would rather vote for Osama bin Laden than Hillary Clinton, because she'll bring a lot of new Democratic voters to the booths...possibly enough to win.

One little problem with your theory, Rainsford. The young Democratic voters who keep promising to vote every cycle almost never show up. The older folks who absolutely despise Hillary will be out in massive numbers guaranteed. Turning out the vote is much more difficult with young people than it is with older people.

Sadly, that's very true.

Don't forget that there are also lots of older folks who don't vote all the time who might get riled up enough (with a little prodding from the GOP political machine of course) to come out and vote against Hillary

I think you will find that people are aware of what the "expected" answer is. I wouldn't be in the least surprised to find that with blacks (especially) people are reluctant to say what they feel.

Unfortunately there are people who will vote for candidates because of their sex or race, but IMO that will be more than offset by those who unfortunately vote against qualified candidates also based on race or sex. Instead of who is black or female or short or tall or thin or fat or whatever, the electorate should base their decision on the candidates track record and what it seems they stand for not just in words, but in their past actions. A great many don't.

 

[Moonbeam]

It would be interesting, Haya, if we voted for a long list of policies we support or disagree with like those web site questions that determine which candidate we most resemble, and to have ones vote so directed. This would remove the cult of personality from the campaign, but with the constant poling of the electorate it would probably wind up that we have a thousand candidates all with identical positions to the greatest majority of voters.

 

[maddogchen]

I wonder when it comes down to it, will people vote for the candidate they like the most or the one they think will give them a greater chance to win?

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: Rainsford
Obama and especially Hillary are going to have that affect on the makeup of the voting population. While Hillary seems horribly divisive among the usual voters for some reason, if she's a candidate, she will bring MANY people to the table interested in seeing a female President. She doesn't have to win over all the old crusty Republicans who would rather vote for Osama bin Laden than Hillary Clinton, because she'll bring a lot of new Democratic voters to the booths...possibly enough to win.

One little problem with your theory, Rainsford.

The young Democratic voters who keep promising to vote every cycle almost never show up.

The older folks who absolutely despise Hillary will be out in massive numbers guaranteed.

Turning out the vote is much more difficult with young people than it is with older people.

What older folks that "absolutely despise Hillary"?

Older Republicans?

I don't know of any Democrats old or young that "absolutely despise Hillary".

 

[Jaskalas]

Did Moonbeam just have a conversation with himself a few posts up?

 

[Moonbeam]

Originally posted by: Jaskalas
Did Moonbeam just have a conversation with himself a few posts up?

No, I used to love to do that but there was always some dunce that would swear up and down that I had two accounts and had forgotten to switch before commenting.

Of course I could be equally confused as to what you mean by a conversation with myself since it seems pretty obvious to me I was talking to Scoorb.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
What older folks that "absolutely despise Hillary"?

Older Republicans?

I don't know of any Democrats old or young that "absolutely despise Hillary".

Let's see, Dave. She has an unfavorable rating hovering at or very near 50%. The country is not 50% Republican so that means people of other persuasions aren't exactly Hill fans, either.

I've talked to numerous lefties who don't have anything good to say about Billary.

 

[BoberFett]

I'm sure there are misogynists who hate Hillary because she's a woman. And I'm sure there are racists who hate Obama because he's black. But those groups are faaaaaar outnumbered who hate Republicans because they're, well, Republicans. The neocons have pretty much squandered any good will they had among moderates.

So what we'll see in the next election is that the die hards will always vote the way they do, and unless Ron Paul wins the Republican nomination, most of the moderates will vote for the Democrat candidate simply because all the other Republicans are a bunch of warmongering, big government neocons.

That's my prediction anyway, take it for what it's worth.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
What older folks that "absolutely despise Hillary"?

Older Republicans?

I don't know of any Democrats old or young that "absolutely despise Hillary".

Let's see, Dave. She has an unfavorable rating hovering at or very near 50%. The country is not 50% Republican so that means people of other persuasions aren't exactly Hill fans, either.

I've talked to numerous lefties who don't have anything good to say about Billary.

They may call her Billary but from the lefties it is a good thing because I've never heard a leftie say we had bad times under Bill and many would say she was the President then anyway.

Only the Righties hate her and Bill too.

50% Senate rating for her personally?

That is awesome considering how you guys have been throwing out pools showing congress at 11% approval rating.

She's obviously kicking ass and taking names. :laugh: :thumbsup:

 

[rpanic]

I think that another Democrat will end up getting the ticket as we get closer, at least I hope so. But if Hillary does get it, the Republicans win, Bush would even have a chance if he could run again if Hillary was the only competition even with how bad he is. I think people are sick of seeing the name Clinton and Bush, it?s government nepotism.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: BoberFett
I'm sure there are misogynists who hate Hillary because she's a woman. And I'm sure there are racists who hate Obama because he's black.

But those groups are faaaaaar outnumbered who hate Republicans because they're, well, Republicans.

The neocons have pretty much squandered any good will they had among moderates.

So what we'll see in the next election is that the die hards will always vote the way they do, and unless Ron Paul wins the Republican nomination, most of the moderates will vote for the Democrat candidate simply because all the other Republicans are a bunch of warmongering, big government neocons.

That's my prediction anyway, take it for what it's worth.

I hope you're right but we've seen you cannot count on any polls.

Cannot count on elections either until someone has conceded.

 

[chowderhead]

in that same poll the OP cited, a full 24% of the people freely admitted that they would not vote for a Mormon (Romney). 30% would not vote for someone who was married three times (Guiliani), and 42% would not vote for someone who is 72 years old (McCain).

So the question could be asked, how many votes are the Republicans giving up by nominating a white guy who has those characteristics about him?

The poll was taken before Thompson jumped in but I do think that a good portion of the population may also not vote for someone who is married to a woman who is roughly the same age as his daughter.

People will vote for or against someone for a variety of reason from substantive issues to trivial. Being a woman candidate may hurt Clinton with some voters but it may help her with others.

Here is a more recent analysis that showed that Democratic women candidates fared the same or slightly better than their male counterparts in actual election
results.

On average, Democratic female candidates for senator and governor won 51% of the vote in their elections; Democratic male candidates in the control group won 47% of the vote.

This of course depends on the candidates and this has not be tested on the Presidential level, but I don't think that being a woman will hurt Clinton that much as she is doing a good job running for the position and not making many mistakes.

 

[electronicmaji]

Not as many votes they are giving up over that women that is the lead candidate being a wishy washy quagmire swimmer.

 

[Moonbeam]

Has anybody asked the Supreme Coup what their choice is?