How many Americans will die due to Trump’s indifference and incompetence to COVID-45?

How many American will die due COVID-19 due to Trumps incompetence/indiference?

  • 0

  • 10

  • 100

  • 1,000

  • 10,000

  • 100,000

  • 1,000,000+


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MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
3,084
1,117
136
Trump routinely dismisses the threat.

Trump appoints an idiot that does not even believe in science to spearhead the response to the threat!

Trump believes that it is a plot by democrats to discredit him before the elections and cause him to lose the election.

Trump attacks/threatens/fires people knowledgeable in the field of communicable diseases because they dare to criticize his actions or response.

Trump said that schools and other institutions do not need to plan to deal with a possible outbreak.

Trump said "It's going to disappear. One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear,"

Trump said that spring time and warm weather would take care of it.
 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,415
3,940
126
i think 100k is a fair number if it spreads like wildfire. We dont have the ability to shut down like china did. We also dont wear face masks when we are sick.
 
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Amused

Elite Member
Apr 14, 2001
53,102
4,969
126
The death rate is 20 times the flu, with a virus with no known immunity and a slightly higher r0 factor..

I posit that, if it breaks free from containment (*which the CDC and WHO says is more than likely now) the death count will be roughly 20 times the worst flu death count in recent years: 80,000 x 20.

1.6 million.

 

Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
8,670
2,512
136
I'm hoping for something more optimistic. 1000-10000.

I'm considering (hoping) on seasonality. We should be moving out of flu season very soon, so hopefully nothing goes to hell over the next months and this virus follows.

If it's not seasonally impacted, then that fig is low
 

Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
8,670
2,512
136
The death rate is 20 times the flu, with a virus with no known immunity and a slightly higher r0 factor..

I posit that, if it breaks free from containment (*which the CDC and WHO says is more than likely now) the death count will be roughly 20 times the worst flu death count in resent years: 81,000 x 20.

1.62 million.
The other unknown is the actual mortality rate. Most of what we know it's based on shit data from China and limited means to test and detect.

We could be greatly missing in the population size of infected due to lack of diagnosis.

Hopefully at least...
 
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Amused

Elite Member
Apr 14, 2001
53,102
4,969
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The other unknown is the actual mortality rate. Most of what we know it's based on shit data from China and limited means to test and detect.

We could be greatly missing in the population size of infected due to lack of diagnosis.

Hopefully at least...
The death rate in every country with over 100 cases has been over or at 2% with the exception of South Korea..


Italy: 400 cases (78 new) 12 deaths
Korea 1766 cases (505 new) 13 deaths.(lowest so far with 13 out of 1260 cases puts it at a hopeful 1%, still 10 times the death rate of flu)
Iran 141 cases (46 new) 22 deaths.
Japan 186 cases (22 new) 3 deaths.

Back when this was thought to be containable I made some statements that are obviously no longer true if the CDC and WHO prediction this will break containment is true.

My view has changed entirely based on new evidence from the CDC and WHO

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TheVrolok

Lifer
Dec 11, 2000
22,979
2,241
136
The death rate in every country with over 100 cases has been over or at 2% with the exception of South Korea..


Italy: 400 cases (78 new) 12 deaths
Korea 1766 cases (505 new) 13 deaths.(lowest so far with 13 out of 1260 cases puts it at a hopeful 1%, still 10 times the death rate of flu)
Iran 141 cases (46 new) 22 deaths.
Japan 186 cases (22 new) 3 deaths.
It's simply too early to have an accurate (and maybe more appropriately generalizable) CFR. Even in China the CFR within Hubei is currently estimated at 2.9% and outside of Hubei at 0.4%.

But to answer the OP, I have significant fears about Trump's ability to manage his way out of a wet paper bag.
 

Aikouka

Lifer
Nov 27, 2001
29,315
405
126
The death rate in every country with over 100 cases has been over or at 2% with the exception of South Korea..


Italy: 400 cases (78 new) 12 deaths
Korea 1766 cases (505 new) 13 deaths.(lowest so far with 13 out of 1260 cases puts it at a hopeful 1%, still 10 times the death rate of flu)
Iran 141 cases (46 new) 22 deaths.
Japan 186 cases (22 new) 3 deaths.
Are you sure these numbers are statistically significant enough to determine a proper rate? To begin with, the infection count is still quite low (setting the bar at >100 doesn't represent a good minimum sample size) and there's no guarantee that we're looking at a good distribution of people that represent the makeup of the country or world. In other words, the Diamond Princess was a cruise that heavily skewed toward the elderly. If it sees a higher mortality rate, is that due to the infection or the susceptibility of the infected?
 

Roger Wilco

Senior member
Mar 20, 2017
322
85
71
We literally don't know. Why speculate on a number when the data is insufficient? This is a mild disease in most individuals. How are we going to know anything if most individuals are not being monitored?
 

Amused

Elite Member
Apr 14, 2001
53,102
4,969
126
Are you sure these numbers are statistically significant enough to determine a proper rate? To begin with, the infection count is still quite low (setting the bar at >100 doesn't represent a good minimum sample size) and there's no guarantee that we're looking at a good distribution of people that represent the makeup of the country or world. In other words, the Diamond Princess was a cruise that heavily skewed toward the elderly. If it sees a higher mortality rate, is that due to the infection or the susceptibility of the infected?
No. But it is the best data we have outside China and the whole "China is lying" conspiracy gets tiring.

BY ALL data exterior to China, the death rate is 1-3%. No lower than 1% in any sample large enough to even begin to consider.
 

Amused

Elite Member
Apr 14, 2001
53,102
4,969
126
It's simply too early to have an accurate (and maybe more appropriately generalizable) CFR. Even in China the CFR within Hubei is currently estimated at 2.9% and outside of Hubei at 0.4%.

But to answer the OP, I have significant fears about Trump's ability to manage his way out of a wet paper bag.
Meh, I'll go with what the experts are saying about the death rate.


"One of the hopes of people watching China’s coronavirus outbreak was that the alarming picture of its lethality is probably exaggerated because a lot of mild cases are likely being missed.

But on Tuesday, a World Health Organization expert suggested that does not appear to be the case. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and China’s response, said the specialists did not see evidence that a large number of mild cases of the novel disease called Covid-19 are evading detection."

WHO and CDC are putting the death rate at around 2% AND saying containment is increasingly unlikely.

When in doubt, believe the experts.
 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,415
3,940
126
our best hope is a vaccine at thsi point. I have faith in wall street ghouls wanting to charge us 20k a shot.
 
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Zorba

Diamond Member
Oct 22, 1999
7,389
1,328
126
The other unknown is the actual mortality rate. Most of what we know it's based on shit data from China and limited means to test and detect.

We could be greatly missing in the population size of infected due to lack of diagnosis.

Hopefully at least...
Hopefully we are vastly under estimating the recovered, but we could also be vastly under estimating the death.

I know whenever I do the math I get up to about 7%, but the official numbers are staying in the 2.7% range. The cruise ship is currently at 6 out of 710, so about 0.8% with excellent care.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
13,080
3,686
136
Local news here has something like below 11yo 0%, below 40 0.1% and from there on it gets worse, 80+ 15%.
So this thing is actually attacking the GOP demographic ... wonder if Trump will catch up on that, its obviously dems doing... Id be surprised if Alex Jones is not already on it.

edit: found one of those aggregate youtube news sources that speedy talks about :
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
15,817
4,292
136
At current levels of partisan and ideological dumbfuckery, I'd say this bad joke of an admin is going to get thousands of Americans killed.

Just look at dipshit. Like with everything else, he is totally lost. He's just waiting for someone to tell him when and where he can toss some paper towel rolls. Then he's got to get back to destroying American democracy, institutions and credibility for 2020. The anti-science zealot Pence is on the job after all, no worries.
 
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Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
8,670
2,512
136
Hopefully we are vastly under estimating the recovered, but we could also be vastly under estimating the death.

I know whenever I do the math I get up to about 7%, but the official numbers are staying in the 2.7% range. The cruise ship is currently at 6 out of 710, so about 0.8% with excellent care.
Yeah, everything I've seen says it's too early to really know anything. We need better testing and more data.

A lot of diagnosis by symptoms rather than validated tests.
 

shortylickens

No Lifer
Jul 15, 2003
75,831
9,003
126
It doesnt matter.
Fox News will convince America it only happens to gay black men and they'll eat it up with a cherry on top.
 
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hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
13,769
2,722
126
Gentlemen, place your bets. Lower is better. Not much you can do but stay home as much as possible.
 

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