How many Americans deaths will Trump be directly responsible for due to COVID-45

[MtnMan]

Trump routinely dismisses the threat.

Trump appoints an idiot that does not even believe in science to spearhead the response to the threat!

Trump believes that it is a plot by democrats to discredit him before the elections and cause him to lose the election.

Trump attacks/threatens/fires people knowledgeable in the field of communicable diseases because they dare to criticize his actions or response.

Trump said that schools and other institutions do not need to plan to deal with a possible outbreak.

Trump said "It's going to disappear. One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear,"

Trump said that spring time and warm weather would take care of it.

 

[ShookKnight]

Your poll is missing one very important option; "The Democrats caused all of this!"

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

I am unencumbered by data, so I'll go with tree fiddy.

 

[JSt0rm]

i think 100k is a fair number if it spreads like wildfire. We dont have the ability to shut down like china did. We also dont wear face masks when we are sick.

 

[Amused]

The death rate is 20 times the flu, with a virus with no known immunity and a slightly higher r0 factor..

I posit that, if it breaks free from containment (*which the CDC and WHO says is more than likely now) the death count will be roughly 20 times the worst flu death count in recent years: 80,000 x 20.

1.6 million.

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S., highest death toll in 40 years

The U.S. government estimates that 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter — the disease's highest death toll in at least four decades.

www.statnews.com

 

[Bitek]

I'm hoping for something more optimistic. 1000-10000.

I'm considering (hoping) on seasonality. We should be moving out of flu season very soon, so hopefully nothing goes to hell over the next months and this virus follows.

If it's not seasonally impacted, then that fig is low

 

[Bitek]

The death rate is 20 times the flu, with a virus with no known immunity and a slightly higher r0 factor..

I posit that, if it breaks free from containment (*which the CDC and WHO says is more than likely now) the death count will be roughly 20 times the worst flu death count in resent years: 81,000 x 20.

1.62 million.

The other unknown is the actual mortality rate. Most of what we know it's based on shit data from China and limited means to test and detect.

We could be greatly missing in the population size of infected due to lack of diagnosis.

Hopefully at least...

 

[Amused]

The other unknown is the actual mortality rate. Most of what we know it's based on shit data from China and limited means to test and detect.

We could be greatly missing in the population size of infected due to lack of diagnosis.

Hopefully at least...

The death rate in every country with over 100 cases has been over or at 2% with the exception of South Korea..

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200227-sitrep-38-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=9f98940c_2

Italy: 400 cases (78 new) 12 deaths
Korea 1766 cases (505 new) 13 deaths.(lowest so far with 13 out of 1260 cases puts it at a hopeful 1%, still 10 times the death rate of flu)
Iran 141 cases (46 new) 22 deaths.
Japan 186 cases (22 new) 3 deaths.

Back when this was thought to be containable I made some statements that are obviously no longer true if the CDC and WHO prediction this will break containment is true.

My view has changed entirely based on new evidence from the CDC and WHO

 

[pauldun170]

Commentary is implied

 

[soulcougher73]

172

 

[TheVrolok]

The death rate in every country with over 100 cases has been over or at 2% with the exception of South Korea..

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200227-sitrep-38-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=9f98940c_2

Italy: 400 cases (78 new) 12 deaths
Korea 1766 cases (505 new) 13 deaths.(lowest so far with 13 out of 1260 cases puts it at a hopeful 1%, still 10 times the death rate of flu)
Iran 141 cases (46 new) 22 deaths.
Japan 186 cases (22 new) 3 deaths.

It's simply too early to have an accurate (and maybe more appropriately generalizable) CFR. Even in China the CFR within Hubei is currently estimated at 2.9% and outside of Hubei at 0.4%.

But to answer the OP, I have significant fears about Trump's ability to manage his way out of a wet paper bag.

 

[Aikouka]

The death rate in every country with over 100 cases has been over or at 2% with the exception of South Korea..

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200227-sitrep-38-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=9f98940c_2

Italy: 400 cases (78 new) 12 deaths
Korea 1766 cases (505 new) 13 deaths.(lowest so far with 13 out of 1260 cases puts it at a hopeful 1%, still 10 times the death rate of flu)
Iran 141 cases (46 new) 22 deaths.
Japan 186 cases (22 new) 3 deaths.

Are you sure these numbers are statistically significant enough to determine a proper rate? To begin with, the infection count is still quite low (setting the bar at >100 doesn't represent a good minimum sample size) and there's no guarantee that we're looking at a good distribution of people that represent the makeup of the country or world. In other words, the Diamond Princess was a cruise that heavily skewed toward the elderly. If it sees a higher mortality rate, is that due to the infection or the susceptibility of the infected?

 

[Roger Wilco]

We literally don't know. Why speculate on a number when the data is insufficient? This is a mild disease in most individuals. How are we going to know anything if most individuals are not being monitored?

 

[Amused]

Are you sure these numbers are statistically significant enough to determine a proper rate? To begin with, the infection count is still quite low (setting the bar at >100 doesn't represent a good minimum sample size) and there's no guarantee that we're looking at a good distribution of people that represent the makeup of the country or world. In other words, the Diamond Princess was a cruise that heavily skewed toward the elderly. If it sees a higher mortality rate, is that due to the infection or the susceptibility of the infected?

No. But it is the best data we have outside China and the whole "China is lying" conspiracy gets tiring.

BY ALL data exterior to China, the death rate is 1-3%. No lower than 1% in any sample large enough to even begin to consider.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Y'all remember Henny Penny, right?

 

[Amused]

It's simply too early to have an accurate (and maybe more appropriately generalizable) CFR. Even in China the CFR within Hubei is currently estimated at 2.9% and outside of Hubei at 0.4%.

But to answer the OP, I have significant fears about Trump's ability to manage his way out of a wet paper bag.

Meh, I'll go with what the experts are saying about the death rate.

New data from China buttress fears about high coronavirus fatality rate, WHO expert says

A WHO expert who visited China said he did not see evidence that a large number of mild #coronavirus cases are evading detection, meaning its lethality has likely not been exaggerated.

www.statnews.com

"One of the hopes of people watching China’s coronavirus outbreak was that the alarming picture of its lethality is probably exaggerated because a lot of mild cases are likely being missed.

But on Tuesday, a World Health Organization expert suggested that does not appear to be the case. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and China’s response, said the specialists did not see evidence that a large number of mild cases of the novel disease called Covid-19 are evading detection."

WHO and CDC are putting the death rate at around 2% AND saying containment is increasingly unlikely.

When in doubt, believe the experts.

 

[JSt0rm]

our best hope is a vaccine at thsi point. I have faith in wall street ghouls wanting to charge us 20k a shot.

 

[Zorba]

The other unknown is the actual mortality rate. Most of what we know it's based on shit data from China and limited means to test and detect.

We could be greatly missing in the population size of infected due to lack of diagnosis.

Hopefully at least...

Hopefully we are vastly under estimating the recovered, but we could also be vastly under estimating the death.

I know whenever I do the math I get up to about 7%, but the official numbers are staying in the 2.7% range. The cruise ship is currently at 6 out of 710, so about 0.8% with excellent care.

 

[cytg111]

Local news here has something like below 11yo 0%, below 40 0.1% and from there on it gets worse, 80+ 15%.
So this thing is actually attacking the GOP demographic ... wonder if Trump will catch up on that, its obviously dems doing... Id be surprised if Alex Jones is not already on it.

edit: found one of those aggregate youtube news sources that speedy talks about :

 

[JSt0rm]

trump killing off everyone over 65 would be pretty fitting.

 

[kage69]

At current levels of partisan and ideological dumbfuckery, I'd say this bad joke of an admin is going to get thousands of Americans killed.

Just look at dipshit. Like with everything else, he is totally lost. He's just waiting for someone to tell him when and where he can toss some paper towel rolls. Then he's got to get back to destroying American democracy, institutions and credibility for 2020. The anti-science zealot Pence is on the job after all, no worries.

 

[Bitek]

Hopefully we are vastly under estimating the recovered, but we could also be vastly under estimating the death.

I know whenever I do the math I get up to about 7%, but the official numbers are staying in the 2.7% range. The cruise ship is currently at 6 out of 710, so about 0.8% with excellent care.

Yeah, everything I've seen says it's too early to really know anything. We need better testing and more data.

A lot of diagnosis by symptoms rather than validated tests.

 

[shortylickens]

It doesnt matter.
Fox News will convince America it only happens to gay black men and they'll eat it up with a cherry on top.

 

[ch33zw1z]

Up to 10k is my vote. Trying to stay optimistic

 

[hal2kilo]

Gentlemen, place your bets. Lower is better. Not much you can do but stay home as much as possible.