How low will it go?

[techs]

Lots of threads on the stock market bottom.
Here's one on oil.
Closed at 82.66 yesterday, and the overnights mean it will open LOWER.
Will we hit 70 a barrel oil? 60 a barrell oil? 50 a barrel oil?
Or lower?

 

[StageLeft]

One of the few silver linings.

We will see a 7 in front of it. It may hit into the 60's, although I think the decrease will slow down. I doubt it's going to swing much below 70's this year. Depending on how things are next year it may go down further and comfortably below 70. I think that OPEC is going to do all it can to raise prices. It must be PANICKED right now, but I don't know what power it really has at the moment, and if Saudi continues to pump to its max, OPEC's power is gutted.

Additionally, if OPEC cuts production and raises prices, say, $20, in the fact of a global economic meltdown, people will become enraged and livid, like in the movie 28 Days Later. I don't know if OPEC can really withstand that much hate if it's clearly and directly responsible for it.

In any case, I think we're closing in on the "true" non-bubbled value of oil, so the fact it's down $65 now in three months (!) doesn't mean it will keep shedding that much for much longer. There's only so much further it can go, and expensive extract approaches like the tar sands require, I think, $50/barrel to break even, so it does hit a fairly hard limit on how low it can go, at least semi long term.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
One of the few silver linings.

We will see a 7 in front of it. It may hit into the 60's, although I think the decrease will slow down. I doubt it's going to swing much below 70's this year. Depending on how things are next year it may go down further and comfortably below 70. I think that OPEC is going to do all it can to raise prices. It must be PANICKED right now, but I don't know what power it really has at the moment, and if Saudi continues to pump to its max, OPEC's power is gutted.

Additionally, if OPEC cuts production and raises prices, say, $20, in the fact of a global economic meltdown, people will become enraged and livid, like in the movie 28 Days Later. I don't know if OPEC can really withstand that much hate if it's clearly and directly responsible for it.

In any case, I think we're closing in on the "true" non-bubbled value of oil, so the fact it's down $65 now in three months (!) doesn't mean it will keep shedding that much for much longer. There's only so much further it can go, and expensive extract approaches like the tar sands require, I think, $50/barrel to break even, so it does hit a fairly hard limit on how low it can go, at least semi long term.

So, at say 75 a barrel, what does that translate into at price at the pump per gallon?

 

[Fingolfin269]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Skoorb
One of the few silver linings.

We will see a 7 in front of it. It may hit into the 60's, although I think the decrease will slow down. I doubt it's going to swing much below 70's this year. Depending on how things are next year it may go down further and comfortably below 70. I think that OPEC is going to do all it can to raise prices. It must be PANICKED right now, but I don't know what power it really has at the moment, and if Saudi continues to pump to its max, OPEC's power is gutted.

Additionally, if OPEC cuts production and raises prices, say, $20, in the fact of a global economic meltdown, people will become enraged and livid, like in the movie 28 Days Later. I don't know if OPEC can really withstand that much hate if it's clearly and directly responsible for it.

In any case, I think we're closing in on the "true" non-bubbled value of oil, so the fact it's down $65 now in three months (!) doesn't mean it will keep shedding that much for much longer. There's only so much further it can go, and expensive extract approaches like the tar sands require, I think, $50/barrel to break even, so it does hit a fairly hard limit on how low it can go, at least semi long term.

So, at say 75 a barrel, what does that translate into at price at the pump per gallon?

I'm sure someone will find a way to be sure it stays right around $3... forever.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: Fingolfin269

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Skoorb
One of the few silver linings.

We will see a 7 in front of it. It may hit into the 60's, although I think the decrease will slow down. I doubt it's going to swing much below 70's this year. Depending on how things are next year it may go down further and comfortably below 70. I think that OPEC is going to do all it can to raise prices. It must be PANICKED right now, but I don't know what power it really has at the moment, and if Saudi continues to pump to its max, OPEC's power is gutted.

Additionally, if OPEC cuts production and raises prices, say, $20, in the fact of a global economic meltdown, people will become enraged and livid, like in the movie 28 Days Later. I don't know if OPEC can really withstand that much hate if it's clearly and directly responsible for it.

In any case, I think we're closing in on the "true" non-bubbled value of oil, so the fact it's down $65 now in three months (!) doesn't mean it will keep shedding that much for much longer. There's only so much further it can go, and expensive extract approaches like the tar sands require, I think, $50/barrel to break even, so it does hit a fairly hard limit on how low it can go, at least semi long term.

So, at say 75 a barrel, what does that translate into at price at the pump per gallon?

I'm sure someone will find a way to be sure it stays right around $3... forever.

Here's an idea, sure to piss of fthe right wing wacko's, not to mention jus plain Americans.
Keep the price of gas at about 30 cents per gallon higher than it would be by raising the gas tax. All the money raised goes towards reducing the debt. And it would keep marginal oil producers, like the tar sands, from going under and keep production high.
That may actually do three o good things. Reduce our debt, help our balance of payments, and prevent another spike.
Long term reasonable gas prices, ftw.

 

[Capt Caveman]

Dave says 'Next stop $200'.

 

[Darwin333]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Fingolfin269

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Skoorb
One of the few silver linings.

We will see a 7 in front of it. It may hit into the 60's, although I think the decrease will slow down. I doubt it's going to swing much below 70's this year. Depending on how things are next year it may go down further and comfortably below 70. I think that OPEC is going to do all it can to raise prices. It must be PANICKED right now, but I don't know what power it really has at the moment, and if Saudi continues to pump to its max, OPEC's power is gutted.

Additionally, if OPEC cuts production and raises prices, say, $20, in the fact of a global economic meltdown, people will become enraged and livid, like in the movie 28 Days Later. I don't know if OPEC can really withstand that much hate if it's clearly and directly responsible for it.

In any case, I think we're closing in on the "true" non-bubbled value of oil, so the fact it's down $65 now in three months (!) doesn't mean it will keep shedding that much for much longer. There's only so much further it can go, and expensive extract approaches like the tar sands require, I think, $50/barrel to break even, so it does hit a fairly hard limit on how low it can go, at least semi long term.

So, at say 75 a barrel, what does that translate into at price at the pump per gallon?

I'm sure someone will find a way to be sure it stays right around $3... forever.

Here's an idea, sure to piss of fthe right wing wacko's, not to mention jus plain Americans.
Keep the price of gas at about 30 cents per gallon higher than it would be by raising the gas tax. All the money raised goes towards reducing the debt. And it would keep marginal oil producers, like the tar sands, from going under and keep production high.
That may actually do three o good things. Reduce our debt, help our balance of payments, and prevent another spike.
Long term reasonable gas prices, ftw.

While I think its currently the worst time possible to raise taxes, as long as it really goes to paying down the debt you wouldn't hear me bitch about it.

Although before we even consider doing that we need to first balance the budget which neither candidate is going to do.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Capt Caveman
Dave says 'Next stop $200'.[/quote]lawls.

I am trying to find the link that historical matches oil to gas prices, it will show us exactly where $75/barrel should be give or take a few percent.

Here

it seems that at $75 barrel we should be paying a national average of low 3's.

 

[Juddog]

Didn't Saudi's walk out on OPEC, saying they had no problem with oil at $80 a barrel? If the refineries keep up production, gas prices should go down to where they were a few years ago, say $2.50 - $3.00 a gallon, although I doubt it will actually dip below $3 realistically. If the gas prices started going down to mid $2, then it would have a healthy boost to our economy.

 

[TraumaRN]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: Capt Caveman
Dave says 'Next stop $200'.

lawls.

I am trying to find the link that historical matches oil to gas prices, it will show us exactly where $75/barrel should be give or take a few percent.

Here

it seems that at $75 barrel we should be paying a national average of low 3's.

Gas prices are consistently at 2.99-3.09/gallon here in Metro Detroit so thats about right with current prices.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Juddog
Didn't Saudi's walk out on OPEC, saying they had no problem with oil at $80 a barrel? If the refineries keep up production, gas prices should go down to where they were a few years ago, say $2.50 - $3.00 a gallon, although I doubt it will actually dip below $3 realistically. If the gas prices started going down to mid $2, then it would have a healthy boost to our economy.

Oil is the only thing to prop up financials

 

[BrunoPuntzJones]

It's Texas tea...like the drink.

 

[BurnItDwn]

Originally posted by: techs
Here's an idea, sure to piss of fthe right wing wacko's, not to mention jus plain Americans.
Keep the price of gas at about 30 cents per gallon higher than it would be by raising the gas tax. All the money raised goes towards reducing the debt. And it would keep marginal oil producers, like the tar sands, from going under and keep production high.
That may actually do three o good things. Reduce our debt, help our balance of payments, and prevent another spike.
Long term reasonable gas prices, ftw.

This is a very bad idea.
High gas prices, while certainly not "THE" cause of all the market turmoil, are a major player in the collapse.

Think of it like this.
Lots of people got financing for houses that they couldn't afford. (though they could make payments) All the sudden, gas prices skyrocket, they more than doublein just a couple of years. Home heating, electric, and all consumer goods go up in price too.
Wage growth is pretty much stagnant, maybe 3-4% for those who are "lucky."

Even with a fixed rate mortgage, Somebody who used to pay $40 per month to fill up their 4 banger at $1 per gallon would be paying $160 per month at $4 per gallon.. Their home heating costs may have gone up by $50-100 per month vs a few years back, and their electric may also be up $50 or so per month in the summer. Food prices go up because fuel prices are up ...

Breaks down like this.
Somebody who took home 2K per month in cash and managed to pay their 1K mortgage, 100 in electric, 40 in gas, 200 for groceries, 100 for home heating/natural gas, 100 for auto insurance, 150 for health insurance, and the rest going towards anything else (would be living paycheck to paycheck, but still "head above water") .

Now, that same person, even if the mortgage was the "same", would be paying 150 in electric, 160 in gas, 300 for groceries, and 150 for home heating/natural gas, 100 for insurance, 150 for health insurance, ... they would not have enough income to cover even essentials, thus, they drop their health insurance, eat cheaper, make whatever sacrifices they can, and then they get sick and can't afford anything due to medical bills, or they simply still can't keep up and they go bankrupt, house gets forclosed, and economy suffers.


There are a LOT of people in this country who are "hanging on by a thread." Every dollar that they don't have to spend on gas for their car to get to/from work, is a dollar they can spend feeding their kids or paying their bills.

You want to continue to fvck these people up, artificially raise the price of gas. These are the people that get hit the hardest.

I don't understand why anyone who considers themselves "left wing" likes to see gas prices so high. How can anybody try to enact policy for the sake of the "environment" when it would cause so much suffering to the very people that they claim to represent?


How about Legalize prostitution/brothels ... charge sales tax for their services, hookers pay income tax ...

Legalize some drugs that aren't lethal but are illegal, charge sales tax for them.

Provide capital for infrastructure, stuff that may be very expensive and take TONS of labor, but in the long run, stuff that should provide a solid ROI. Build big Dams, build more nuclear power plants.

Set up giant mining operations (price of copper is high, why not mine more copper? It could help bring down prices, it could also help bring down theft)

To save social security, raise the retirement age to 70 or 75.

For heath care, this is simple, make it so all medicaid/welfare people have to pay a little bit for prescriptions/dr visits. Give them $10 more per month in benefits per person on their food stamps or EBT in their household. Charge them $5 per generic prescription and $10 per brand name prescription. Charge them $10 copayment for a Dr Office visit, charge them $50 for an emergency room visit. They would still get lower copays than all of "us", but it would be enough so that they don't go to the ER every time one of their kids gets a cold.

Just a few ideas that I haven't thought through completely .... much like your idea that you didn't think through at all.

 

[Genx87]

Global economic slowdown is going to help with the falling of oil. Less demand pressure.
I saw the first sub 3.00 gasoline this week. Think it is at 2.86 near my house for regular. I was thinking 2.5 by Christmas but with the rate it is falling. It may be 2 bucks.

 

[evident]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Skoorb
One of the few silver linings.

We will see a 7 in front of it. It may hit into the 60's, although I think the decrease will slow down. I doubt it's going to swing much below 70's this year. Depending on how things are next year it may go down further and comfortably below 70. I think that OPEC is going to do all it can to raise prices. It must be PANICKED right now, but I don't know what power it really has at the moment, and if Saudi continues to pump to its max, OPEC's power is gutted.

Additionally, if OPEC cuts production and raises prices, say, $20, in the fact of a global economic meltdown, people will become enraged and livid, like in the movie 28 Days Later. I don't know if OPEC can really withstand that much hate if it's clearly and directly responsible for it.

In any case, I think we're closing in on the "true" non-bubbled value of oil, so the fact it's down $65 now in three months (!) doesn't mean it will keep shedding that much for much longer. There's only so much further it can go, and expensive extract approaches like the tar sands require, I think, $50/barrel to break even, so it does hit a fairly hard limit on how low it can go, at least semi long term.

So, at say 75 a barrel, what does that translate into at price at the pump per gallon?

3.40 because everyone is an asshole

 

[umbrella39]

Originally posted by: DeathBUA

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: Capt Caveman
Dave says 'Next stop $200'.

lawls.

I am trying to find the link that historical matches oil to gas prices, it will show us exactly where $75/barrel should be give or take a few percent.

Here

it seems that at $75 barrel we should be paying a national average of low 3's.

Gas prices are consistently at 2.99-3.09/gallon here in Metro Detroit so thats about right with current prices.

I paid $2.99 yesterday in Taylor. We were talking inside the gas station about how pathetic we all were delighting in the fact that we were paying less than $3 a gallon.

As for the OP, I think it will settle down around $50 until the economy gets back on track.

 

[techs]

Yep. We can stop worrying about the oil problem
Chevy Suburbans are back in style.

 

[WHAMPOM]

I still have an unanswered question. What was the difference in price between oil delivered to the refinery and what OPEC got paid?

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: WHAMPOM
I still have an unanswered question. What was the difference in price between oil delivered to the refinery and what OPEC got paid?

If you have to ask, you can't afford it.

 

[WHAMPOM]

Originally posted by: techs
Lots of threads on the stock market bottom.
Here's one on oil.
Closed at 82.66 yesterday, and the overnights mean it will open LOWER.
Will we hit 70 a barrel oil? 60 a barrell oil? 50 a barrel oil?
Or lower?

$50 and stick there for the winter. My best guess at the actual nonspeculation worth of oil.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: WHAMPOM

Originally posted by: techs
Lots of threads on the stock market bottom.
Here's one on oil.
Closed at 82.66 yesterday, and the overnights mean it will open LOWER.
Will we hit 70 a barrel oil? 60 a barrell oil? 50 a barrel oil?
Or lower?

$50 and stick there for the winter. My best guess at the actual nonspeculation worth of oil.

The fun question is: how many speculators have lost their shirt with this? How many made terrible picks? And unlike the stock market, which always goes up long-term, they won't make that back.

 

[shira]

Originally posted by: Fingolfin269

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Skoorb
One of the few silver linings.

We will see a 7 in front of it. It may hit into the 60's, although I think the decrease will slow down. I doubt it's going to swing much below 70's this year. Depending on how things are next year it may go down further and comfortably below 70. I think that OPEC is going to do all it can to raise prices. It must be PANICKED right now, but I don't know what power it really has at the moment, and if Saudi continues to pump to its max, OPEC's power is gutted.

Additionally, if OPEC cuts production and raises prices, say, $20, in the fact of a global economic meltdown, people will become enraged and livid, like in the movie 28 Days Later. I don't know if OPEC can really withstand that much hate if it's clearly and directly responsible for it.

In any case, I think we're closing in on the "true" non-bubbled value of oil, so the fact it's down $65 now in three months (!) doesn't mean it will keep shedding that much for much longer. There's only so much further it can go, and expensive extract approaches like the tar sands require, I think, $50/barrel to break even, so it does hit a fairly hard limit on how low it can go, at least semi long term.

So, at say 75 a barrel, what does that translate into at price at the pump per gallon?

I'm sure someone will find a way to be sure it stays right around $3... forever.

The oil industry says that 70% of the retail price of gasoline is a result of the price of oil, with the remaining 30% a result of production costs. If that's accurate, then 70% of the $72 reduction (from the peak price of $147 a barrel) would mean about a 34% reduction in the price of gas (relative to the peak). Here in Maryland, that would translate to about $2.69 a gallon.

 

[WHAMPOM]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: WHAMPOM
I still have an unanswered question. What was the difference in price between oil delivered to the refinery and what OPEC got paid?

If you have to ask, you can't afford it.

Wow! What a strawman answer.

 

[DisgruntledVirus]

Originally posted by: umbrella39

Originally posted by: DeathBUA

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: Capt Caveman
Dave says 'Next stop $200'.

lawls.

I am trying to find the link that historical matches oil to gas prices, it will show us exactly where $75/barrel should be give or take a few percent.

Here

it seems that at $75 barrel we should be paying a national average of low 3's.

Gas prices are consistently at 2.99-3.09/gallon here in Metro Detroit so thats about right with current prices.

I paid $2.99 yesterday in Taylor. We were talking inside the gas station about how pathetic we all were delighting in the fact that we were paying less than $3 a gallon.

As for the OP, I think it will settle down around $50 until the economy gets back on track.

NE Ohio last night saw $2.79/gal at a BP and Citgo.

 

[gar3555]

Seems OPEC is worried about their profits. They are holding an emergency meeting to get those prices back up.

OPEC emergency meeting