How low will it go? By the end of February. ---Dow Jones, that is.

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: techs
The economic stimulus package, along with all the other actions taken to stimulate the economy have not stopped the Dow's fall.
As of March 7th its at 11,912.
So basically we are now within 500 points of what the Dow low was in 1999 which was 11,497
By the summer, I think 10,000 is likely.

Thats still a big drop from where it is now. But, that said, savvy investors realize its a cycle, and a great opportunity for those who dollar cost average. Man I love sales!

 

[StageLeft]

Thanks for this thread. I said by end of feb between 11-11.5k. It just hit below 12k today, so it didn't drop as quickly as I had guessed. The market, though, so hard to predict/guess

The economic stimulus package, along with all the other actions taken to stimulate the economy have not stopped the Dow's fall.

Speaking of which in the mail yesterday I got my notice about my expected rebate, the intent of which of course is that I holler and hoop and go to bestbuy and spend the rebate now, ahead of time. No, sir, that rebate is going straight to ING Direct, no doubt.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: techs
The economic stimulus package, along with all the other actions taken to stimulate the economy have not stopped the Dow's fall.
As of March 7th its at 11,912.
So basically we are now within 500 points of what the Dow low was in 1999 which was 11,497
By the summer, I think 10,000 is likely.

Thats still a big drop from where it is now. But, that said, savvy investors realize its a cycle, and a great opportunity for those who dollar cost average. Man I love sales!

Yeah, no growth for 9 years is great news!

 

[RightIsWrong]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
OK, techs, I will short Hillary.

Bill already has!

 

[nullzero]

DOW at 11884 as we speak taking a beating today. The job report really sucked and that was even when the government was done fluffing the numbers.

 

[WHAMPOM]

About 7500 after recovering from the coming 15 year depression. Right now there too many artificial supports.

 

[nullzero]

DOW almost down -200 today!

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: techs
The economic stimulus package, along with all the other actions taken to stimulate the economy have not stopped the Dow's fall.
As of March 7th its at 11,912.
So basically we are now within 500 points of what the Dow low was in 1999 which was 11,497
By the summer, I think 10,000 is likely.

Thats still a big drop from where it is now. But, that said, savvy investors realize its a cycle, and a great opportunity for those who dollar cost average. Man I love sales!

Yeah, no growth for 9 years is great news!

I dont know what you mean by no growth. My retirement account(s) have grown 400% since 2001, and my yahoo shares have grown 600% since I bought them at $25/share. Just because the market is where it was in...2001 or whatever...doesnt mean growth hasnt happened in the last 7 years.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: techs
The economic stimulus package, along with all the other actions taken to stimulate the economy have not stopped the Dow's fall.
As of March 7th its at 11,912.
So basically we are now within 500 points of what the Dow low was in 1999 which was 11,497
By the summer, I think 10,000 is likely.

Thats still a big drop from where it is now. But, that said, savvy investors realize its a cycle, and a great opportunity for those who dollar cost average. Man I love sales!

Yeah, no growth for 9 years is great news!

I dont know what you mean by no growth. My retirement account(s) have grown 400% since 2001, and my yahoo shares have grown 600% since I bought them at $25/share. Just because the market is where it was in...2001 or whatever...doesnt mean growth hasnt happened in the last 7 years.

You're kind of arguing like the return on investment of a lotto ticket is of relevance to the market. The market as a whole is nearly where it was in 1999, by his numbers, which is the nearly no growth part. I'd hate to see it adjusted for inflation or comparison of the dollar to other currencies over this period, then we'd see even uglier numbers.

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: blackangst1
I dont know what you mean by no growth.

DJIA 01/01/1992: 3,223.39
Add 8 Years
DJIA 01/01/2000: 11,497.12
Add 8 Years
DJIA 03/07/2008: 11,828.24

Do you figure it out yet?

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: blackangst1
I dont know what you mean by no growth.

DJIA 01/01/1992: 3,223.39
Add 8 Years
DJIA 01/01/2000: 11,497.12
Add 8 Years
DJIA 03/07/2008: 11,828.24

Do you figure it out yet?

Now granted, that 11,497 was a freak peak and the other months on either side of it were in the 10's, but the overall argument is supported by the numbers.

At least the US pulled down its national debt during this time, so it's not all bad.

That was a joke.

 

[PingSpike]

N/m...gotta check dates.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: PingSpike
N/m...gotta check dates.

link

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: blackangst1
I dont know what you mean by no growth.

DJIA 01/01/1992: 3,223.39
Add 8 Years
DJIA 01/01/2000: 11,497.12
Add 8 Years
DJIA 03/07/2008: 11,828.24

Do you figure it out yet?

Thanks for ignoring the rest of my post. I understand what youre saying, but youre wrong. If the market had been flat from 200-2008 THAT would mean no growth. But it hasnt been. But in the last 8 years there have been quite a few gains. You are looking at it so simply youre ignoring reality.

If there had indeed been no growth, how do you explain people's portfolio's growing? I wont hold my breath for that one.

 

[techs]

Update. March 10th at 3:15 pm. Down 131 to 11,761.
Only 264 points above December 1999.

I wonder how much of a loss that is if you count in inflation?

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: techs
Update. March 10th at 3:15 pm. Down 131 to 11,761.
Only 264 points above December 1999.

I wonder how much of a loss that is if you count in inflation?

Not as much as if we fast forward 11 months and then count it, whoo hoo!

 

[0marTheZealot]

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: jpeyton

Originally posted by: blackangst1
I dont know what you mean by no growth.

DJIA 01/01/1992: 3,223.39
Add 8 Years
DJIA 01/01/2000: 11,497.12
Add 8 Years
DJIA 03/07/2008: 11,828.24

Do you figure it out yet?

Thanks for ignoring the rest of my post. I understand what youre saying, but youre wrong. If the market had been flat from 200-2008 THAT would mean no growth. But it hasnt been. But in the last 8 years there have been quite a few gains. You are looking at it so simply youre ignoring reality.

If there had indeed been no growth, how do you explain people's portfolio's growing? I wont hold my breath for that one.

Well, that growth was completely unsustainable. People who got out of the game early won big, but the majority lost much more than what was thought possible. Look at the said portfolios now. There's been literally tens of trillions of dollars of wealth erased in the past few months.