How low will it go? By the end of February. ---Dow Jones, that is.

[techs]

In December of 1999 the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11,497.
Last Friday the Dow closed at 12,099.
In the next month:
Will the Dow dip below 12,000?
Will the Dow go below the 11,497 it was in 1999?
Will the Dow go below 11,000? 10,000?
Will the Dow recover and go over 13,000?
Will the Dow recover and go over 14,000?

Show your financial prediction skills here.

I say the Dow goes down to about 11,700 then rises back above 13,000.

EDIT:
When I posted this the economic stimulus package hadn't even been proposed yet.
So, even though its now March 7, a week after February, and we have had the stimulus package, as I type this the Dow is now 11,912.

 

[Farang]

The Dow will hit 20,000.

 

[Mxylplyx]

Hopefully alot lower. I'm getting into the market this year, and want to start low.

 

[Mavtek3100]

Kramer said it will drop 2000 by the end of the month.

 

[nonameo]

I'm not entirely too sure, but I would at least wager that it will be....

OVER 9,000!!!!!!

 

[Brainonska511]

Eh... whatever. The market goes in cycles. I'm in it for the long haul, but it will be a nice discount for when I dump some more money into my Roth IRA later this year.

 

[IronWing]

Originally posted by: Farang
The Dow will hit 20,000.

Inflation makes the impossible possible. But not by the end of February, at least not this February.

 

[blackangst1]

I would love to see 10,000, but I doubt it will fall below 11,500.

 

[alchemize]

I just want a 5% 30 year fixed. However low it takes for that

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: ironwing

Originally posted by: Farang
The Dow will hit 20,000.

Inflation makes the impossible possible. But not by the end of February, at least not this February.

You caught me. Damnit.

 

[First]

Assuming a 3-5% correction, 11,500 is not unreasonable. I wouldn't be surprised at 11,000. Though, the Dow isn't the only important indicator of economic strength. Interest rates, inflation, unemployment, GDP, per capita growth, etc. are all in the aggregate quite a bit more important.

 

[Legend]

Considering the international drop, I think we're going to drop down to about 10,000 at the lowest point, but I don't think there's going to be any quick sustainable comeback.

I think we'll bottom out in the coming months, and the rebound will take a few years.

But just a guess, which is why I'm a diversified index investor.

 

[BarneyFife]

I say 10500.

 

[Delita]

Originally posted by: nonameo
I'm not entirely too sure, but I would at least wager that it will be....

OVER 9,000!!!!!!

Haha!!

 

[SSSnail]

Originally posted by: Farang
The Dow will hit 20,000.

First football, now economic too? We're fucked.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Mxylplyx
Hopefully alot lower. I'm getting into the market this year, and want to start low.

Just remember that in about 30 years when someone much younger than you be wishing the same thing, and you'll be praying that it won't happen.

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Mxylplyx
Hopefully alot lower. I'm getting into the market this year, and want to start low.

Just remember that in about 30 years when someone much younger than you be wishing the same thing, and you'll be praying that it won't happen.

If he' s smart, in 30 years hell be mostly in bonds, he wont care about the stock market so much.

 

[BarneyFife]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Mxylplyx
Hopefully alot lower. I'm getting into the market this year, and want to start low.

Just remember that in about 30 years when someone much younger than you be wishing the same thing, and you'll be praying that it won't happen.

If he' s smart, in 30 years hell be mostly in bonds, he wont care about the stock market so much.

True but what if you're 45 years old. 15 years to retirement. This would kill you.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Mxylplyx
Hopefully alot lower. I'm getting into the market this year, and want to start low.

Just remember that in about 30 years when someone much younger than you be wishing the same thing, and you'll be praying that it won't happen.

If he' s smart, in 30 years hell be mostly in bonds, he wont care about the stock market so much.

What about 20 years? How about 15 or maybe 25? I guess each can wish what he/she wants. I bet in 20 years, the tune will change. It always does.

 

[Slew Foot]

Ive always said the best market retirement strategy is to work on dividends, not capital returns. That was you dont care what the stock price is, you only care that it pays out it's dividend. Getting started early helps real nicely in this regard.

 

[IronWing]

Originally posted by: alchemize
I just want a 5% 30 year fixed. However low it takes for that

From Reuters today:

Treasuries surged, with 10-year futures vaulting more than a full point to a nearly five-year high as alarmed investors sought the relative safety of government debt.

Today isn't your day.

 

[shira]

You've limited the time frame to the end of February. I think the Dow will go below 10,000 at some point this year, though maybe not by 2/28.

By the way, the Nikkei is way down this evening (4.4% right now), so expect to see a major fall in U.S. markets on Tuesday.

 

[Jiggz]

By this coming Feb 2008, it will hit below 11,500. Three months later it will hit bottom below 11,000 ~ 10,500! FTSE lost more than 5% today while DAX lost more than 7%, so you can bet DOW tomorrow will take some beating and drop at least 2~3% or between 250~350 pts! For sure, DJI will hit below 12,000 tomorrow! I guess it's time to refinance the mortgage.

 

[nageov3t]

today's looking pretty grim for asia already.

makes me glad that I've got (almost) no debt to my name and a semi-secure job (no one's irreplaceable, but my company made it through the dotcom bust and I'd like to think that my job is safe as long as my company is in existence and I don't do anything to fuck it up)

 

[Slew Foot]

Hang seng is down 8% right now. weeeeeee!