How long will the recession last?

[Arkitech]

How long does it normally take for the economy to recover in situations like?

Also how does going to war improve the economy?

 

[notfred]

Originally posted by: Arkitech
How long does it normally take for the economy to recover in situations like?

I don't know

Also how does going to war improve the economy?

Lots of people get jobs building tanks and missles and things.

 

[DanJ]

How long does it normally take for the economy to recover in situations like?

I'm thinking the economy will jump start a few months before I graduate with my MA.

lol...please...please....

 

[rufruf44]

I just hope it wont be another Japan. Their economy has been in recession for over a decade.

 

[LAUST]

With humans being replaced by machines and computers, what is the next thing?

 

[T2T III]

Originally posted by: axiom
We're not in a recession right now. We avoided it already.

As for Wars and their affects on the economy, we are in much different times compared to WWI or WWII times. Our economy has been proven to grow without wars so we've actively sought to avoid them. We have had to deal with smaller conflicts over the last 50 years, but this is attained to our statesmanship. GDP is still growing and inflation is at a normal pace so we're doing pretty good.

I suspect growth will start to pick up steam once the Bush tax cuts are passed into law. Accelerating the cuts will help a lot, but it's unclear if opponents in the Congress will pass the President's plan without getting a few more names attached to it's credit.

Thanks for posting the information that we're not in a recession. The economy is just S-L-O-W and not growing as fast as one would like. But, at least it's growing.

 

[ed21x]

i thought it recovered already last year...

 

[DiamondJ]

Originally posted by: axiom
We're not in a recession right now. We avoided it already.

As for Wars and their affects on the economy, we are in much different times compared to WWI or WWII times. Our economy has been proven to grow without wars so we've actively sought to avoid them. We have had to deal with smaller conflicts over the last 50 years, but this is attained to our statesmanship. GDP is still growing and inflation is at a normal pace so we're doing pretty good.

I suspect growth will start to pick up steam once the Bush tax cuts are passed into law. Accelerating the cuts will help a lot, but it's unclear if opponents in the Congress will pass the President's plan without getting a few more names attached to it's credit.

 

[Ausm]

Originally posted by: Arkitech
How long does it normally take for the economy to recover in situations like? Also how does going to war improve the economy?

If we knew the answer to that question we would not be posting here....

Ausm

 

[fonzinator]

Looking at historical data, recessions generally follow a trend. A few years down, on average, then they shoot back up. However, this one will be/is quite different. There are many other factors that are negatively affecting our economy. These cannot easily be controlled by Greenspan and his chums....ie. war, corporate scandals, major corporations going bust, terrorism, ect. With these taken into consideration, I would say it could be several more years before we see a siginfigant rebound. While we probably won't see such catastrophies as suffered during the Great Depression, this will undoubtably continue to be a very long and hard dry time in our nations economy.

 

[Miramonti]

It will last for a while and won't be over anytime soon. If the tax plan goes through the dollar will get crushed, burying the economy deeper until the budget and deficit spending gets under control. Bush says it will grow the economy, which it won't but even if it did it won't be immediate, so buckle up.

 

[LeeTJ]

I know one thing for sure, once they start building the new WTC we are going to see good growth out here in the North east.

 

[cjchaps]

I agree, and have seen data and information to back this outlook. It's time to start shorting the market! The one thing I don't agree with is the Great Depression part. Before we are out of this depression, we will be hit very hard....

Originally posted by: fonzinator
Looking at historical data, recessions generally follow a trend. A few years down, on average, then they shoot back up. However, this one will be/is quite different. There are many other factors that are negatively affecting our economy. These cannot easily be controlled by Greenspan and his chums....ie. war, corporate scandals, major corporations going bust, terrorism, ect. With these taken into consideration, I would say it could be several more years before we see a siginfigant rebound. While we probably won't see such catastrophies as suffered during the Great Depression, this will undoubtably continue to be a very long and hard dry time in our nations economy.

 

[StageLeft]

I am not sure a small war like that in Iraq will improve the economy. The reason wars like WWII did is because so much of the economy is geared towards the war. The US already has what it needs for the Iraq war, and though it will need to replace munitions aftewards, it won't be anything compared to previous major wars.

I agree, and have seen data and information to back this outlook. It's time to start shorting the market! The one thing I don't agree with is the Great Depression part. Before we are out of this depression, we will be hit very hard....

We're already out of the recession, even if growth is very slow. It's going to be a while before things really pick up properly since morale has affected the general populous quite significantly now.

 

[cjchaps]

At the end of Feb, we can check and see what happened with the stock market and the economy for the month. I predict it will not be good. A recession isn't ALL a downward trend. There are little spikes of activity, but in the long the economy is still on a downward slope. If we are in a recession that lasts for 10 years, and 2 years into it we see 6 months of growth, that doesn't mean we are out of it.

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I am not sure a small war like that in Iraq will improve the economy. The reason wars like WWII did is because so much of the economy is geared towards the war. The US already has what it needs for the Iraq war, and though it will need to replace munitions aftewards, it won't be anything compared to previous major wars.

I agree, and have seen data and information to back this outlook. It's time to start shorting the market! The one thing I don't agree with is the Great Depression part. Before we are out of this depression, we will be hit very hard....

We're already out of the recession, even if growth is very slow. It's going to be a while before things really pick up properly since morale has affected the general populous quite significantly now.

 

[LH]

Dude you guys are smoking crack.

We ARE NOT in a reccession, and havent been. We've had more than two straight quarters of positive growth. Its not alot, but its still growth. Unemployment is down .3%. Manufacturing is still going along smoothly.

Just because the stock market was overly inflated and is coming down to reasonable levels, doesnt mean we are in a reccession. The economy could be alot worse, its still alot better than it was in the 70s and 80s.

 

[shiner]

Recession: Definition
A Recession is typically defined as an overall slowing of economic activity. Since there are many measures of economic activity as well as what constitutes a "slowing," there can be many definitions of what exactly constitutes a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a non-profit organization which assigns dates to the beginning and end of downturns, defines a recession as "a period of declining output and employment."

One common and often cited definition of the beginning of a recession is two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Whether one uses this rigid definition or another definition based on a more comprehensive examination of the various measures of the macroeconomy is largely a matter of personal taste - there's nothing magical about either definition.

In reality the economy can and does move at various speeds, not just at a pace defined by the on/off of a boom or recession. It is usually better to look more deeply at the underlying data directly.

Output. Usually the total output of the economy is measured as Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, since GDP is measured only every quarter, other measures must be used to get more specific timing of a business cycle peak. Industrial production (IP) as measured monthly by the Federal Reserve takes this role in the NBER's determination of business cycle dates.

Employment. Recessions are usually associated with periods of declining employment as well as output. When output is declining, firms have less need to employ workers, and this translates to fewer people employed and a rise in the unemployment rate.

Duration. Recessions can be of various durations. Since 1945 (through 1992), the average recession has lasted 11 months.

 

[LAUST]

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[LH]

At the end of Feb, we can check and see what happened with the stock market and the economy for the month. I predict it will not be good. A recession isn't ALL a downward trend. There are little spikes of activity, but in the long the economy is still on a downward slope. If we are in a recession that lasts for 10 years, and 2 years into it we see 6 months of growth, that doesn't mean we are out of it.

Im sorry but this "reccession" is not 10 year thing. Its a blip, just like in the early 90's. Will the stock market ever get to 12000 anytime, soon? No, but thats not a good indicator to judge the economy. It might be 10 years before the stock market is over 12000 again, but we currently are in a reccession, and the reccession we were in only lasted 11 months. We've had 3 quarters of growth..

 

[shiner]

I don't believe we are currently in a recession. We are experiencing growth, it's just a bit slow. The problem is that people got spoiled during the tech boom and expected those numbers to continue. Those expectations were unrealistic and now everyone seems to think the economy is in ruins. It is not, I'm only 32 and I have lived through MUCH worse. The only real problem right now are the pansy investors who get nervous every time the wind blows. Their lack of balls is affecting the economy as a whole and making other people nervous thus consumer confidence is down.

 

[LH]

So you are using the IT job market as a indicator for unemployment. Get real. Everyone knows the IT market is over saturated. Its time to look into a new feild, the dot com era is over. Theres plenty of jobs, just not in the IT feild.

There are jobs for

Engineers
Programmers
Nursing
Retail
Manufacturing

just not IT. People were spoiled by the Dot.Com era, went into it and thought it was easy money. Im sorry, you and i know the Dot.Com era was a sham, there isnt a need for as many IT people as there currently is in the US. People also need to stop whining about how the made $100,000 at job x, and are only making $45,000 at their current job. The IT industry is not an indicator of unemployment. Thats like saying "oh I cant find any airline jobs". Any over staturated job market will have people without jobs, its up to them to find a job. They can keeping looking for their pie in the sky $75-100k IT job or they could wake the fvck up and realise the dot.com era was a sham and they never should have been making $100,000 in the IT feild with less than 7 years experiance.

 

[fonzinator]

Originally posted by: cjchaps
I agree, and have seen data and information to back this outlook. It's time to start shorting the market! The one thing I don't agree with is the Great Depression part. Before we are out of this depression, we will be hit very hard....

Originally posted by: fonzinator
Looking at historical data, recessions generally follow a trend. A few years down, on average, then they shoot back up. However, this one will be/is quite different. There are many other factors that are negatively affecting our economy. These cannot easily be controlled by Greenspan and his chums....ie. war, corporate scandals, major corporations going bust, terrorism, ect. With these taken into consideration, I would say it could be several more years before we see a siginfigant rebound. While we probably won't see such catastrophies as suffered during the Great Depression, this will undoubtably continue to be a very long and hard dry time in our nations economy.

Thankfully, our government learned much from the Great Depression. There are many safeguards built in to the markets to keep them losing 1/3 of their value in two days. Also, the Federal Reserve Board wisely uses interest rates to control out of control inflationary periods and recessionary periods - unlike the Board overinflating the money supply in the '20s. We've learned from our mistakes and it is unlikely that another Great Depression will occur again due to an inept federal reserve.....of course some MAJOR disaster could spark one (ie. nuclear war).

 

[LAUST]

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[LH]

They obviously arent looking hard enough, anyone that wants a job can find one. They are just being picky. Besides I know people in construction and theres always jobs.

 

[LAUST]

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