in theory, it's 100 years.
the older ones are like 10.
with regular wear and tear and the fact that chemicals can cause the deterioration of the plastics involved as well as the foil layer, i am one of the ones that says it's not really true.
the oils from our hands are capable of (though slowly) causing damage to CDs.
don't forget temperature fluxuations.
and of course it has been after 10 years since the original CDs came out (as in the first EVER CDs, and CDRs), older users can and have told us, THEORY is theory ;-)
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that's why magneto optic (MO) drives are still the BEST in terms of longevity. unfortunately they are relatively slow.