How long do you think mankind will last?

[SMOGZINN]

Originally posted by: JLGatsby

Originally posted by: SMOGZINN
It all comes down to the space program. If we can get off this rock we might make it 10,000 years or more. If we get out of this solar system we will make it for millions of years. If we do neither we are doomed by any number of things, our own folly first and foremost.

Anyone who knows anything about space knows that will not be possible.

Any place in the universe that could support us is much much too far away.

You must not have a good concept of how big space really is.

I have a pretty good idea of how big space is. I just do not discount what mankind is willing to do to ensure the continuation of the species. If we can perfect technologies like cryonic stasis, artificial intelligence, and near light speed travel it will become possible for us to attempt extreme long distance space travel.
It is a daunting task, but if we can just get off Earth and colonize the planets that we can get to right now, then we could easily have another 10,000 years to work these problems out. The first step is to get off Earth and learn to use our technology to build self sustaining full time colonies in hostile environments. We are not that far away from such a goal, we just need to make it more of a priority.

 

[pontifex]

Originally posted by: JLGatsby

Originally posted by: SMOGZINN
It all comes down to the space program. If we can get off this rock we might make it 10,000 years or more. If we get out of this solar system we will make it for millions of years. If we do neither we are doomed by any number of things, our own folly first and foremost.

Anyone who knows anything about space knows that will not be possible.

Any place in the universe that could support us is much much too far away.

You must not have a good concept of how big space really is.

maybe with current technology. who knows what we will have in the years to come.

 

[darkxshade]

I don't get it, a good majority of the posters in this thread has faith in our ability to build technology to escape our fate yet a good portion 30+% of the voters in the poll voted for at most 100 years... /boggle

 

[Night Blade]

Originally posted by: DougK62
Does anyone else wish they could be around for the end of mankind? Sounds like fun.

:thumbsup:

 

[jjones]

Well, first you say "our civilization" then you further say you are really talking about mankind. So, if it's mankind, I'd say 137,561,288 years, give or take a year.

 

[So]

It's rediculous to speculate IMHO. Some say we're sliding into a dark age, and some say we're about 20 years short of a 'singularity' in which our civilization will explode (in terms of power, technology, intelligence, etc...).

 

[BurnItDwn]

More then a million years I think.
Huge asteroids that can slam into the planet and cause total destruction do not come by very often, I think it's like once every 100 million + years on average. so in the next million years, there's about a 1% chance that something of that nature would happen.

Mankind obliterating itself, hasn't happened yet, has it?
Sure we keep building more and more dangerous weapons. Fallout's not something that would be a lot of fun. I think the chances of humanity wiping itself out with wars, etc, while possible in the next million years, is very unlikely.

Perhaps a fast spreading, deadly plague, something like the disease from 28 days later will take down humanity? Ebola? Aids? Bird Flu?
I doubt it. Even if it gets airborn and kills everyone in every city of the world, there are people who live in remote rural areas, at least some people would survive.

I do not think "our civilization" will last, as I believe all civilizations will rise and fall over the years. In futureyears, The current civilizations of the world will be looked upon by future civilizations with the same curiosity that we examine the "ancient" Greek, Roman, and Egyption civilizations. All of our incredible technologies and advancements will be considered primitave at best by those in the deep future, they will wonder how we ever could survive without their futuroosooperdooperelectricitymakor or how we managed without cleanhouseobots etc. Also, They will not use wads of paper, but instead there will be 3 sea shells. But that's another story.


Cliffs
Odds are better then 50% that humankind is likely to survive > 1,000,000 years.
Civilizations will rise and fall. We will one day be thought of as primitive and ancient.

 

[Legend]

If we make it the next 300 years or so, we'll last at least tens of thousands if not millions of years.

In 300 years, we should have colonies outside earth that are independent of earth. So the crazy chance that earth is destroyed would not kill civilzation.

 

[AccruedExpenditure]

Originally posted by: So
It's rediculous to speculate IMHO. Some say we're sliding into a dark age, and some say we're about 20 years short of a 'singularity' in which our civilization will explode (in terms of power, technology, intelligence, etc...).

Tell me more about this singularity

 

[darkxshade]

By civilization I meant mankind... I figured it was implied but I'll change the title.

 

[Night Blade]

I believe the United States as it is now will last another 100 years tops, then again that's another subject & this isn't P&N

 

[So]

Originally posted by: AccruedExpenditure

Originally posted by: So
It's rediculous to speculate IMHO. Some say we're sliding into a dark age, and some say we're about 20 years short of a 'singularity' in which our civilization will explode (in terms of power, technology, intelligence, etc...).

Tell me more about this singularity

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

 

[Inspector Jihad]

we would eventually evolve into a Type V civilization and be able to create our own universe and escape to it if our present one descides to crap out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale

 

[Xyo II]

Originally posted by: ManSnake
3.141592654

3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716939937501

That's all I remember off the top of my head. I used to know it to 250+ digits.

As to the question, that's only one possible outcome to the ending of the Universe. Read this if you have the attention span or the interest.

 

[arcenite]

tomorrow

 

[Willoughbyva]

Well I am unsure if the universe will collapse on itself. I think it will keep expanding forever. As to how long mankind will last, I am not sure. There has been no other time in history that mankind has had such a global society. All over the world people know one another moreso than any other time in history. So what can make mankind cease to exist. Well we curently have enough nuclear bombs and devices that will destroy the world over and over again. Perhaps in the next few hundred years when man can move amungst the stars man will have a better chance to survive. That is if there are any natural resources left to go about doing things. I think there needs to be a more advanced technological revolution that needs to take place. With people realizing that the world faces serious problems there needs to be more attention payed to education. I also think that some of Einsteins theories are off by a bit. They are decent rules or ways of looking at things, but they shouldn't be laws, in that people shouldn't seek to find better answers. I think there are answers out there to the problems that we face. Both technologically and socially. I think there can be so much done through new approaches and by learning from other people. I think that two of the things that are holding people back are governements that are hungry for power and greed. There needs to be more freedom and there needs to be education on why freedom is so important to society.

 

[Rubycon]

Dies irae, dies illa
Solvet saeclum in favilla
Teste David cum Sibylla
Quantus tremor ...

 

[So]

Originally posted by: Willoughbyva
Well I am unsure if the universe will collapse on itself. I think it will keep expanding forever. As to how long mankind will last, I am not sure. There has been no other time in history that mankind has had such a global society. All over the world people know one another moreso than any other time in history.

Agreed, so far

So what can make mankind cease to exist. Well we curently have enough nuclear bombs and devices that will destroy the world over and over again.

AFAIK, this is a myth, people assume drastically worse effects from fallout than really occour, the actual radius of the volume of nukes we have isn't enough, it's just more than enough to cause 'nuclear winter' which we'd survive.

Perhaps in the next few hundred years when man can move amungst the stars man will have a better chance to survive.

certainly would protect us from the odd asteroid impact.

That is if there are any natural resources left to go about doing things.

We're not running out of resources. Worst case, we have to recycle more, if push comes to shove, we have plenty of energy in nuclear, solar, wind, and geothermal to last us at our current tech level for many millenia to come.

I think there needs to be a more advanced technological revolution that needs to take place. With people realizing that the world faces serious problems there needs to be more attention payed to education.

:thumbsup: to education ... it's always a good thing.

I also think that some of Einsteins theories are off by a bit. They are decent rules or ways of looking at things, but they shouldn't be laws, in that people shouldn't seek to find better answers.

Uh....you need to take some physics classes, they aren't 'Laws' in the sense you're thinking of, and the fact that you think people need to look for better answers (they are and have been since the day einstein published) indicates that you probably don't have any good ground to claim that Einstein's thy's are off.

I think there are answers out there to the problems that we face. Both technologically and socially. I think there can be so much done through new approaches and by learning from other people. I think that two of the things that are holding people back are governements that are hungry for power and greed. There needs to be more freedom and there needs to be education on why freedom is so important to society.

Once again agreed. Every problem has a solution.

 

[WildHorse]

 

[HamburgerBoy]

At least another couple thousand years, if not more.

 

[JRich]

Originally posted by: meltdown75
stay a while... stay... FOREVER!!! *ever... ever... ever*

That game was fun!

 

[Staples]

x < 500

 

[Coquito]

If we can get past this little ditch in the road(pollution, space colonization, personal respect), I thing we'll be around until the end of time in some mutated/spiritual form or another.

 

[Mrvile]

I voted 10,000 more years. I don't think humans will exist for another million years, and 10,000 was the closest number under it.

 

[Evadman]

We will exist until we destroy ourselves from within. As long as that doesn't happen, we will exist until the big crunch.