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Question How fast will the 3080Ti sell out?

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,172
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Given the market conditions I might be silly enough to actually try for a $1000+ GPU; something I never thought I'd do. So, what are the chances of a real human relying on their fleshy F5 finger getting a 3080Ti? I expect that most or all of the cards are already spoken for by mining firms via backdoor deals with distributors, and the few cards that slipped through the cracks will be fought over by bots and armies of F5 fingers on release day. So, I estimate the probability of a regular gamer getting an RTX 3080Ti to be right around 0.25% chance. This takes into account the likely number of gamers vs the likely number of cards that haven't already been purchased by miners ahead of the card's release. Your thoughts?

I predict the card goes from "coming soon" straight to "out of stock" with no period of time between.
 
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moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,172
1,979
126
It will sell out really fast.

The odds of a human getting one will be really low.

/thread
You can't just come in here and pump and dump me like that. I want more attention from you. I want more embellishment. This is an emotional time for gamers like me and if I can't get a GPU, the least you can do is let me down softly. I was hoping you'd tell me my chances would be better this time. I know I made it sound like I already knew I didn't have a chance, but you're supposed to read my mind and tell me what I want to hear instead. Isn't that what we're here for? Here for each other?
 

gdansk

Senior member
Feb 8, 2011
690
387
136
Based on past experiences? Faster than you or I can get one.
It took me two months of monitoring alerts to land a RTX 3080 at MSRP and only because I was "lucky" to be up at 3AM.
 

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,172
1,979
126
Then you're in luck. In fact, your chances of getting a GPU will actually be 100x better* than they were before.

*:Those with even a basic knowledge of math will realize that this is meaningless and the actual chance hasn't changed at all.
Hang on, let me take a stab at this and you tell me if I got it or not. Here I go: 100 times a really small number is still a really small number?
 

Aikouka

Lifer
Nov 27, 2001
29,966
620
126
If it’s any consolation, EVGA added a new perk to their Elite membership where Elite members get a 24 hour period to register for a wait queue for any new releases. This has no effect on existing cards, but it should apply to the 3080 Ti.
 

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,172
1,979
126
If they cost $1500 then I absolutely don't need it. Playing games on a flat screen isn't that exciting to me anymore to be spending that much on just a GPU. I'd rather buy literally anything else with $1500 than spend it on a GPU. I'd rather buy aluminum for another potato gun than spend it on a GPU. I'd rather buy one of the upcoming standalone VR headsets than spend that much on a GPU. I'd rather buy some exotic fish than spend that much on a GPU. I'd rather fill my garage with toilet paper for the next pandemic than spend that much on a GPU. I'd rather fill my kitchen from floor to ceiling with spatulas than spend that much on a GPU.
 
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Aikouka

Lifer
Nov 27, 2001
29,966
620
126
If they cost $1500 then I absolutely don't need it. Playing games on a flat screen isn't that exciting to me anymore to be spending that much on just a GPU. I'd rather buy literally anything else with $1500 than spend it on a GPU. I'd rather buy aluminum for another potato gun than spend it on a GPU. I'd rather buy one of the upcoming standalone VR headsets than spend that much on a GPU. I'd rather buy some exotic fish than spend that much on a GPU. I'd rather fill my garage with toilet paper for the next pandemic than spend that much on a GPU. I'd rather fill my kitchen from floor to ceiling with spatulas than spend that much on a GPU.
In regard to pricing, one thing that I'm curious about is how painful it will be selling these cards secondhand a year or two from now. I recall seeing a 3060 Ti marked up to around $660 at Newegg (just for the card itself; the bundle was more), which is close to the MSRP of a 3080 ($700). Once prices begin to settle down again, saying "well, I paid $x for it!" doesn't really work if I can pay significantly less for a brand new item.

But I do understand your sentiment. It's why my main goal is to nab a Founder's Edition card as they're still at MSRP. I'd also entertain an EVGA card, but the other AIBs just don't seem to be worth it.
 

CP5670

Diamond Member
Jun 24, 2004
4,898
248
106
$1500 is the 3090 price, in which case you would have been better off just getting that when it came out.

I think this crazy pricing may be normalized going forward. They have seen that people are willing to pay these prices.
 

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,172
1,979
126
$1500 is the 3090 price, in which case you would have been better off just getting that when it came out.

I think this crazy pricing may be normalized going forward. They have seen that people are willing to pay these prices.
I think miners are willing to pay these prices, but very few gamers would pay $2500 for a 3080. The mining value of a GPU determines it's price tag these days, for instance how long it takes to make your money back mining. If people couldn't make a profit on a $3000 GPU, then very few people would pay that price except for those who's budget includes things like Cristal, Maybach, diamonds on your timepiece, jet planes, islands or tigers on a gold leash, etc.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
51,647
6,726
126
I think miners are willing to pay these prices, but very few gamers would pay $2500 for a 3080. The mining value of a GPU determines it's price tag these days, for instance how long it takes to make your money back mining. If people couldn't make a profit on a $3000 GPU, then very few people would pay that price
Most of the "smarter" miners, wouldn't pay that much either for a 3080 or 3090. Most of the smarter miners have ways of getting them cheaper, or at least, much closer to MSRP.

Sure, I'd love a couple more RX 5700(XT) cards, or a pair of GTX 1660 Supers, but I'm not paying $1100-1300 or $500-800 respectively, ea.

If I can get a 1660 Super @ BestBuy during one of their stock drops, for $239, sure, I'd love a couple at that price. But more than $400? $500? Crazy, fuggedaboutit.

IMHO, the people paying those prices, if there are any at all, are n00b miners, that are FOMO'ing into the mining scene, and panic and post on Reddit, when BTC or ETH or revenue drops 10%, and ask if they should sell off their cards.

Us miners that have been through a crash already, know that the best time to pick up hardware, mostly, is either during / after a crash, or before the Bull Run. Once the Bull Run starts, and prices go through the roof, well, good luck to anyone to get cards at MSRP, unless they live in China or Taiwan and can get them direct from factories over there @ MSRP or below (bulk orders).
 

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,172
1,979
126
Well, I'm hoping the mining limiter scares away enough miners to give us gamers a chance at a 3080Ti. If I can snag a founders at $1000, that should last me a long time. As silly as it sounds, I still have longevity concerns with only 12GB of ram on a card that powerful. Then again, all I play is Rocket League and one VR game, so there's that to consider as well. I just can't get into any of these newer games these days. I can't force myself to care anymore. Looking forward to the next Battlefield game though, but that's about it.
 
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CP5670

Diamond Member
Jun 24, 2004
4,898
248
106
If you're into VR, it's one of the few places where a 3090 would be better. Several VR games already go beyond 12GB at higher resolution/SS settings.

As for the pricing, you're right that people are mining to offset the price right now. I wonder how many gamers actually do that though, versus people who got tired of setting up bot scripts and just paid whatever it costs on ebay out of frustration.
 

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,172
1,979
126
Yep. Less than a second after launch and this GPU will not just be out of stock, but effectively EOL and discontinued just like the rest of the lineup that no one can buy.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
16,685
6,498
136
If they keep this up they’re gonna be an effen joke amongst consumers... 3080ti? WHO CARES? about a “product” they have no chance of obtaining outside of paying 3x the listed price. If AT reviews this card without this disclaimer in the intro I am boycotting the video card section...
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
16,685
6,498
136
How is the whole eco system going to work, are they gonna optimize drivers for games that no one is playing on the cards cause they are all mining anyway? They are gonna pour millions into driver development to keep up appearances in reviewers game benchmarks? Ok then.
 

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