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I remember the days when you bought a cpu and you new that at the worst it would be about 50% better than it's predecessors. Gee it must have been a few years ago. >>
I think these are some of the things you are missing:
*) The Athlon. It was some good 50% faster in
some situations. Not every. On average, it was perhaps 20% faster than the P3 Katmai. Then the coppermine came around. Performance was pretty much on an even keel, except for things like mp3 encoding, and 3dstudiomax. With Q3, the P3 STILL TO THIS DAY beats out the Athlon. The athlon could do better, with stronger compilers....
*) The Pentium 3. Was it 50% faster than a P2? Even if you were to compare a hypothetical 450mhz P3 coppermine to a 450mhz P2, the difference would be a lot less than 50%. Infact, the P2 450 and P3 450 had very, very little performance difference, and with good reason: there wasn't much changed with it! To get the very most out of it, the P3 needs to have SSE optimizations, which means recompiling. Wow, similar to older days....
*) The Pentium 2. Was it 50% faster than the Ppro? No, infact, the Ppro was slower in some limited situations. The extra L1 cache helped out, but the L2 cache being half the clock speed, and with higher latencies didn't help out performance. Oh, but you want to compare it to the P55 (pentium mmmx) right? Ok. Yes, it was faster. Intel introduced the P2 266 BEFORE the 233. Why? To make sure there was a big enough performance delta so that people would buy it. The P2 233, except in some gaming situations, and really FPU intensive code, was NOT that much faster than a P233mmx. Many reviews (read: magazines) said if you wanted to buy "one behind the bleeding edge" to just get the P233mmx, and save a wadd of cash compared to the P2 233.
*) The Ppro. This was actually significantly SLOWER in 16 bit code than the P2 200. Is that a + 50%? No....But yeah, I know, anyone using a Ppro didn't spend all that cash to use windows 3.1! They used windows NT, and there, it was king. But not in all places. And it was horribly expensive! It was NOT an economical decision when buying a comp with a Ppro when they first came out. A lot of code had to be recompiled with a "free" FXCH in mind to get the best performance. Recompiling, and subsequent coding, was done to take specific advantage of the "new features" of the Ppro. It wasn't something that magically just happened. But the P6 core, which includes the Ppro, P2, P3, and Cumines (and all celerons) has been so heavily optimized for at this point, that nearly everything you buy is already pre-optimized for the P6 core (it could be better, but its a lot better than any K6-x optimizations you'll ever see).
*) The Pentium. A lot of code had to be recompiled. The original Pentium 60 was slower than a 486DX4 100mhz. Where's your magical 50%? Because the Pentium had a dual issue super-scalar design, code had to...you guessed it, be RECOMPILED to get the most performance. If you don't understand why that's the case, let me know, and I'll write a short diatribe on it for you...or maybe someone else will. The point being, it took awhile before the fact that the Pentium could ramp in mhz better than the 486 came to light, and the Pentium prooved to be the faster solution.
Whew. Do you really want me to go on? No, the P4 isn't smoking the P3. Sure, its scores are all over the place, where in some, it absolutely rules, and in others, it chokes badly. Other intel chips have done the same exact thing, and some you've probably never heard of, because it was 10 years ago, and they flopped SO BAD that intel doesn't talk about it anymore.
The P4's performance varies more than many expected. But here's a dirty little secret: the scores from a 1.5ghz P4 are, on average, about the same as a P3 1ghz. 1.5 ghz is EASY for intel to get for the P4. Is > 1ghz easy for the P3? Nope. 1ghz STILL ISN'T IN VOLUME. The P4's performance will only go up, even at the same clock speed, because of better compilers, and also because it ramps higher. THIS IS ONLY THE BEGINNING for the P4. The P3, on the same process technology, will not go NEARLY as high in mhz as the P4. The P4 will be able to have a performance advantage (on average, some it will win, some it will lost, but it will win more than it loses) on EVERY process technology.
Care to take a similar, more indepth perspective? Read
this, which is hightly technical, and above my head in some places
Intel is too huge to be taken down over something like this. If AMD does well, and Intel doesn't execute well with the P4, then yes, Intel could be hurt. But they are far from out of the market because of the P4. The P4 architecture has such an incredibly high lowest common denominator, its scarry. 3.2gbytes/sec of bandwidth is something that only the high end Alphas have right now. The P4 has it too.... The P4's performance will only go up from here, and relative to the P3, even with the P3 scaling higher, the P4 will continue to show a performance delta.
BK.
[EDIT]spelling
