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How come the media doesn't report the real polls???

techs

Lifer
Sep 26, 2000
28,563
3
0
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...th_barr_nader-957.html

Whenever you see a poll its only McCain v. Obama. Yet, there are two third party candidates who are running that have "significant" support, Nader and Barr.
If you look at the polls when they are included as candidates you get very different results.
Obama seems to benefit the most. He seems to get about a 3-4 point greater advantage over McCain when Barr and Nader are included in the poll.

In fact, if you look at the 5 most recent polls at the link Obama averages about a 9 point lead over McCain.


 

cKGunslinger

Lifer
Nov 29, 1999
16,370
40
91
Originally posted by: techs
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...th_barr_nader-957.html

Whenever you see a poll its only McCain v. Obama. Yet, there are two third party candidates who are running that have "significant" support, Nader and Barr.
If you look at the polls when they are included as candidates you get very different results.
Obama seems to benefit the most. He seems to get about a 3-4 point greater advantage over McCain when Barr and Nader are included in the poll.

In fact, if you look at the 5 most recent polls at the link Obama averages about a 9 point lead over McCain.
Are you that starved for attention that you have to make the same basic thread with the exact same link every few minutes?

Text

:confused:
 

piasabird

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
17,168
60
91
A 9 point lead seems like a lot, however, 2 points is the error rate and that leaves 7 points. if mccain gains 3 or 4 points, Obama then loses 3 or 4 points, so the poll is still awfully close. Who knows what will happen this close to the end to change it. The other thing is that we dont have a national majority for voting our electorial votes. It is decided on a state by state basis. If you have a big majority in one state their excess does not count in the other states. So this is a very close race and it will be difficult and it will go down to the wire.

If Obama wins the election the world will not come to an end. The big race is probably in the Senate and the House. They are the ones that make the laws and spend the money.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
2
0
A 9 point lead seems like a lot, however, 2 points is the error rate and that leaves 7 points.
Or alternatively it means 11, right?
It is decided on a state by state basis. If you have a big majority in one state their excess does not count in the other states. So this is a very close race and it will be difficult and it will go down to the wire.
This is actually why it's LESS close than what some may think. popular vote will be closer but as it is looking now Obama's going to massacre on electoral, so he'll end up with substantially more electoral votes.
 

erwos

Diamond Member
Apr 7, 2005
4,776
0
76
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Or alternatively it means 11, right?
Yes. But, statistically, you'd be using it to determine whether there's any statistically-significant real lead between the two - so you'd add to the guy behind and subtract from the guy ahead. That's why it's called the margin of error.
 

Stuxnet

Diamond Member
Jun 16, 2005
8,403
1
0
Originally posted by: cKGunslinger
Originally posted by: techs
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...th_barr_nader-957.html

Whenever you see a poll its only McCain v. Obama. Yet, there are two third party candidates who are running that have "significant" support, Nader and Barr.
If you look at the polls when they are included as candidates you get very different results.
Obama seems to benefit the most. He seems to get about a 3-4 point greater advantage over McCain when Barr and Nader are included in the poll.

In fact, if you look at the 5 most recent polls at the link Obama averages about a 9 point lead over McCain.
Are you that starved for attention that you have to make the same basic thread with the exact same link every few minutes?

Text

:confused:
At any given time, the guy has 10+ threads on the front page alone (right now he has 14). He's an attention whore and/or gets paid per thread.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
2
0
Originally posted by: jbourne77
At any given time, the guy has 10+ threads on the front page alone (right now he has 14). He's an attention whore and/or gets paid per thread.
Holy crap I count 15!

 

stlcardinals

Senior member
Sep 15, 2005
729
0
76
However, if you notice all of the polls with Nader and Barr in them were taken before the last debate.

Even the polls with just McCain and Obama are skewed by the polls still in the average that were taken before the debate, especially that overblown one by CBS.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,251
4
0
Originally posted by: techs
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...th_barr_nader-957.html

Whenever you see a poll its only McCain v. Obama. Yet, there are two third party candidates who are running that have "significant" support, Nader and Barr.
If you look at the polls when they are included as candidates you get very different results.
Obama seems to benefit the most. He seems to get about a 3-4 point greater advantage over McCain when Barr and Nader are included in the poll.

In fact, if you look at the 5 most recent polls at the link Obama averages about a 9 point lead over McCain.
Five most recent polls on RCP.

+4
+5
+10
+4
+2

So we are talking about a 4 or 5 point race.

Also, keep in mind that the most accurate poll in 2004 (IDP/TIPP) shows a 3 point race.
 

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