I agree with everything here. IDK what part of the population fervently (enough to fight off our ideas) believes in the ideals portrayed by the NK regime but I wouldn't believe it would be a lot. The VAST majority of the population (dare I say upwards of 90%) live in abject poverty and are dying left and right from starvation. Outside of the capitol, I would doubt if there is 1 NK soul who hasn't been affected negatively by Kim. Without seeming too naive, I would reiterate my original point that the NK people would welcome anything positive other than the status quo, at this point. The old adage of "Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?" only goes so far and will only work so much on an oppressed peoples.
You would have thought the iraqi people would have felt the same way. And I'm sure many do...but they still want us the hell out of there. Iraq was pretty oppressed and closed out, but never to the degree that NK is. I doubt we will be greeted as liberators. Perhaps if we bring lots of food.
Kim jong-il professes to be their protector and savior. We come in, and kill their protector, and undoubtedly kill massive amounts of NK citizens in the process of "regime change". Why would they believe that we are their savior now? Their image of america is completely destroyed by NK propaganda, and whatever leakage of info that puts us in a good light is surely unreliable.
Besides, we're not attacking them to save them. If that was the case, we would have done it long ago. We're attacking them, because we fear they will attack us or our allies. On top of that, kim jong-il will probably spin it to say that "America is jealous of our way of life!" (sound familiar?) So naturally, they will know how disingenuous our "liberating" would be, whether they knew the truth (we fear them), or the propaganda (we're jealous of them).
Unfortunately, there will be many casualties on both sides and I fear for the SK civilian population. There are already NK operatives in the south that have successfully infultrated most aspects of life and it would be anarchy down there if war were to break out in the north. Coupled with an a-bomb threat (assuming they, north gov., has one), this will get huge fast.
Most definitely. They probably have a few spies here as well, I'm sure. The a-bomb is just the icing on the cake though. Right now, at under a kiloton, or even under a megaton, it's more of an emotional thing, a line thats been crossed. 500,000 shells will do a hell of a lot more damage than a 10KT nuke. If they have incendiary bombs, chemical, or biological weapons, nukes are probably the least of SK and/or Japan's problems.
Think about how and why the berlin wall fell, how it is similar, and different. A similarly repressive government, closing out of the rest of the world, etc. But not nearly as closed out, not nearly as big of a capacity to do damage and hold their citizens in. East germany also had the ability to receive TV signals from the west, so they could never forget what life is like on the outside. All east germany had to do was just suggest that east germans could make trips to west germany, and that wall got rushed by tens of thousands of people. That kind of mass uprising is the only thing that can stop this with the least amount of bloodshed. The problem is, if we actively spread propaganda by dropping leaflets, making annoucements etc, that would be an act of aggression. It will take a long process of attrition, to undermine their government. Decades, at the least. I expect the government won't last that long, and will lash out long before then, especially if we corner them like a rat, and the way of life of their leaders is acutely threatened.
Our theoretical best bet is to pay them no public attention. Undermine them in secret, and diplomatically talk in private. Theyre going to do what they want, no matter what they say, because they have all the bargaining power. But its unfeasible in reality to ignore them, because of the nature of the media. Especially when fear, and a pretense that you can actually do something about the problem, is such a great way to get people to vote for you.
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