By making a lot of talk and econ. sanction that you know are pretty much ineffectives. You then wait for the guy to grow old and die while you cross your fingers hoping the next guy will be easier to deal with. Just like Cuba policies right now. 
Or at least an agreement to not interfere from China/Ex-USSR (I love how we trivialize and not call them Russia since they appear much more USSRish than ind.). Remember the Korean war when we ignored the sleeping giant... I agree with the Naval blockade and subsequent ASS POUNDING from the seas. I think an invasion from the south and, if China/Russia agrees, an invasion from that side. Hell, we could invade from south, ocean on the east and China in south west or Russia from north west. Either way, they're screwed.
I think if we wanted to we could lay waste to NK within seconds without the need for such elaborate operations. The bigger issue is, what can NK do to the neighboring countries in the few minutes before we bombard them?
Originally posted by: SagaLore
Ah good point.
There really are no good options.
The more we restrict them economically, the more we force them into a corner where invasion of south korea is their only chance of survival. They will threaten and bluff as they spiral downard, but they aren't going completely down without a fight.
We nuke them, we are no better than they are, and we throw fallout all over china, japan and SK. The world is not going to appreciate that. Nuking is only an option if we face *total* destruction ourselves, and it is FAR off from that. People hear nuke, and think the end of the world. Even a 10, possibly even 100 megaton bomb will not completely destroy most cities. They are working on kiloton bombs. They could level a few city blocks at most. A few city blocks could be hundreds of thousands of people, but far from *total* destruction.
A conventional military strike, as others already mentioned, would lead to mass casualties in SK. And even then, it isn't really much of a viable option unless china, and parts of europe are onboard, and willing to suffer massive military casualties themselves.
Diplomacy is going to be fairly useless. It's a no-win situation, and we know it. They know we have only one desire - to get them to stop building a nuclear program that can theoretically hurt us. This is their greatest advantage, and they can lean on it practically forever. They have no incentive to stop. Bluffing that we will attack them only leads to bluffing that they will attack SK.
Kim Jong-Il is essentially god in NK. If we were to assassinate him, it would cause instant retaliation towards SK, and the US, if they have any capability. This isnt a country of people who want to be free, but their leader oppresses them. This is an orwellian nation, brainwashed masses, who believe that they live in paradise.
The only possibly effective policy is continual subterfuge, leaking propaganda into NK through SK/China. Undermining the government by giving the citizens something to think about. However, this is a very slow, and very uncertain course of action.
No matter what happens, its going to be ugly. It's only a matter of time. Either theyre forced into a corner and have to act, or disintegrate from within.
You are contradictiong yourself. So you are saying China will help the U.S. attack NK so it can protect it's economy? Um, you do know the consequence of the war right? NK's tantrums don't do anything, starting a war will.
That's the point, there will be no war.
Actually, as long as you are not an American, you can visit there all you want. I saw a photo-blog type of deal by a British tourist who went there.
I wonder what kind of fallout there would be from a carpet bombing campaign of low yeild bunker busting nukes across NK's southern artilery positions.... That would neuter them pretty damn quickly...
I had some well thought up paragraphs to rebut you but the issue of SK came to my mind. Frankly, idk how successfully we could stop one that's fired over the border. The possibility of failure is so high that it's frightening to think what would happen if NK fired on SK (assuming they have the means to produce and succeffully deliver a bomb -- I believe that they have not produced a working a-bomb nor have the means to produce one).
Huge fallout - at least politcally. International pariah - as for actual radioactive fallout - I'm not up on my nuclear weapons so I don't know how 'clean' they can be these days
The artillery is right up on the DMZ. Nuking them with enough mass to ensure destruction will unquestionably pass down plenty of fallout over the border, well into seoul. It's not an option.
It would appear this is classic NK (and iraq gulf-war time) strategy. Frankly, this is common for most nations who consciously don't want to be obliterated. They put their munitions in PC areas that they know will provide a higher cost for destruction (political, civil, social etc). The only feasible option would be a tactical strike on these as well as an invasion of NK capitol.
Kim Jong IL has the rest of the world exactally where he wants them. He detonated that nuke to prevent someone from invading and overthrowing him. Striking first against NK is an impossibe choice. Here's how I think it will happen. More sanctions will be applyed, and NK will finally be backed into a corner and with nothing else to loose, they'll attack SK, triggering the appropriate response from the US.
If by feasible, you mean hundreds of thousands of shells raining down on seoul, I suppose its feasible.
As backwards as NK is, I'm sure they've discovered this fantastic invention called radar. Sure, we have stealth, but not nearly enough bombers, as well as a severe lack of intelligence on the arty placement. They would see us coming, undoubtedly. We couldnt hit all their sites at the exact same time even if we wanted to.
They have their eyes on seoul. Evacuation of seoul is a sure fire warning to them that a invasion is coming, since it wouldnt happen for any other reason. The shells will start flying as soon as the evac order is given.
They essentially have seoul held hostage, and there is no way around it. Perhaps a few decades from now, we might have more effective technology, but it looks unlikely.
our official position, per bolton, is that NK assumed that we would back off and they're wrong. we're looking to get a naval blockade (to me, the first sign of war) and japan is looking to get strict economic sanctions in place. Like i said earlier, I don't think NK has the bomb yet and it's all hot air. The fate of NK rests entirely on the shoulders of Kim who suffers from a napoleonic conplex. Everything depends on the ability of himself to sell the fact that a) they have the bomb b) they intend to use it and c) he insane and will use it at the drop of a hat.
But alas, the longer we wait, the more they strengthen, and gain miltary strength, or weaken and have more incentive to actually use that strength.
The only way this could possibly end peacefully is if Kim Jong-Il steps down, or has a complete change of heart. And there is no incentive for him to do so. Even in that case, all it would take is a usurper to take his place, and we're back at square one.
People are going to die due to this situation, no matter what. It's going to be a whole lot of north koreans (well, they already are), definitely combined with a whole lot of south koreans, and a healthy share of japanese, chinese, americans, and whoever else decides to jump in the fray once the bombs start flying.
And even if we successfully defeat their regime, theres a whole population of NK citizen who are brainwashed and will just not see it our way.
Mermaidman
Diamond Member
- Sep 4, 2003
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