How a third party could unintentionally lead to a Trump 2024 victory, like it did for Bush Jr in 2000

[JEDI]

Opinion: The move that's sure to elect Trump in 2024 | CNN

lite.cnn.com

2000 elections: Ralph Nader started the Greene Party
- Bush Jr won Florida by 537 votes, which gave him the Pres.
- Ralph received 97k votes in FL

2024: 'No Label' party
- Rejects partisanship and division and extremism
- Currently, most voters who reject extremism tend to vote Dem

This means the vast majority of votes that a No Labels presidential candidate would receive would likely come out of President Joe Biden’s pool of potential voters, not former President Donald Trump’s – assuming the 2024 election turns out to be a 2020 rematch.

Also, Trump got more votes in 2020 than in 2016 even after:
- two impeachments,
- banning people from Muslim-majority countries
- siding with Putin over US intelligence agencies in Helsinki
- initially saying Covid-19 would “disappear”

One reason Hilary lost in 2016 to Trump was that 6M voters voted 3rd party candidates.
In 2020, only 2M voters voted 3rd party. Most of the 2016 3rd party voters voted for Biden, which eclipsed the increased votes Trump got.


Oh Boy if 3rd party...

 

[eelw]

But if for some reason the orange monkey doesn’t become the Repugnican candidate, he’s going to be that 3rd party. So totally screwing over the R’s by stealing those MAGAtards votes

 

[Muse]

Also, Trump got more votes in 2020 than in 2016 even after:
- two impeachments,

The 2nd impeachment was after the 2020 election. It happened after the Trump inspired Jan. 6, 2021 assault on the capitol.

The second impeachment trial of Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, began on February 9, 2021, and concluded with his acquittal on February 13. Trump had been impeached for the second time by the House of Representatives on January 13, 2021.

But if for some reason the orange monkey doesn’t become the Repugnican candidate, he’s going to be that 3rd party. So totally screwing over the R’s by stealing those MAGAtards votes

Either way, the Democrat will win. Hopefully a tsunami Democratic wave and a drubbing of Republican candidates in the next general election.

 

[Moonbeam]

But if for some reason the orange monkey doesn’t become the Repugnican candidate, he’s going to be that 3rd party. So totally screwing over the R’s by stealing those MAGAtards votes

Given Trumps party loyalty, I am sure he will get behind party nominee no matter who it is.

 

[Pohemi]

Given Trumps party loyalty, I am sure he will get behind party nominee no matter who it is.

I disagree. I believe his ego and narcissisms trump (no pun int) any loyalty, to pretty much anybody or anything.

Unless I missed an invisible /s, heh

 

[Lezunto]

How many really think Trump will run as a third party candidate?

I am betting Bernie Sanders' ego will push him to run a third time because he believes Americans just can't comprehend what a great Commander-in-Chief he'd be.

Bernie needs to go skiing and get lost in a snowbank. He'll just take votes from whomever the Dem nominee will be. Unless his supporters have another toddler tantrum and soil their diapers.

Socialism has never worked and never will.

 

[Fenixgoon]

How many really think Trump will run as a third party candidate?

I am betting Bernie Sanders' ego will push him to run a third time because he believes Americans just can't comprehend what a great Commander-in-Chief he'd be.

Bernie needs to go skiing and get lost in a snowbank. He'll just take votes from whomever the Dem nominee will be. Unless his supporters have another toddler tantrum and soil their diapers.

Socialism has never worked and never will.

bernie can primary all he wants. he just needs to tell his supporters to supporter whoever the dem nominee is after that.

also, obligatory

 

[nickqt]

How many really think Trump will run as a third party candidate?

I am betting Bernie Sanders' ego will push him to run a third time because he believes Americans just can't comprehend what a great Commander-in-Chief he'd be.

Bernie needs to go skiing and get lost in a snowbank. He'll just take votes from whomever the Dem nominee will be. Unless his supporters have another toddler tantrum and soil their diapers.

Socialism has never worked and never will.

Bernie Sanders has never and will never run as a third party candidate for President. He could but almost assuredly won't run in the 2024 Democratic primary, assuming there is one.

Also, Bernie Sanders is a Democratic Socialist. If he upsets you, you should check out the governor of Florida, he's probably right up your alley.

 

[amenx]

Lets hope Marjorie T Green starts a 3rd party.

 

[Moonbeam]

I disagree. I believe his ego and narcissisms trump (no pun int) any loyalty, to pretty much anybody or anything.

Unless I missed an invisible /s, heh

I confess I had something different in mind than team effort picturing Trump getting behind anybody.

 

[Pohemi]

Also, Bernie Sanders is a Democratic Socialist. If he upsets you, you should check out the governor of Florida, he's probably right up your alley.

What I've gathered from his commentary on Bernie here and previously in other posts/threads is that Lezunto's pissed at Bernie (and berniebros) more for affecting vote counts in the general election in 2016 than he is his actual policies.

"Socialism has never worked and never will." ... I could be mistaken though, heh.

I confess I had something different in mind than team effort picturing Trump getting behind anybody.

Yeah... I missed the joke, lol.

 

[brycejones]

How many really think Trump will run as a third party candidate?

I am betting Bernie Sanders' ego will push him to run a third time because he believes Americans just can't comprehend what a great Commander-in-Chief he'd be.

Bernie needs to go skiing and get lost in a snowbank. He'll just take votes from whomever the Dem nominee will be. Unless his supporters have another toddler tantrum and soil their diapers.

Socialism has never worked and never will.

Grandpa was wasted last night

 

[Lezunto]

So much time, money and angst have been wasted on predictions of Trump's imminent arrest, criminal court appearances and convictions. Thank heavens the children now have something else to grouse about - Bernie.

But there will never be any Socialism.

 

[brycejones]

So much time, money and angst have been wasted on predictions of Trump's imminent arrest, criminal court appearances and convictions. Thank heavens the children now have something else to grouse about - Bernie.

But there will never be any Socialism.

So you're acting like a child now? I was really getting more of a drunk old man ranting at clouds vibe from your post. But yes I can see it as also childish ranting about Bernie.

 

[Meghan54]

But there will never be any Socialism.

Yeah, except for Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, public schools, public libraries, and on and on. Little late to stop it now. 😜

 

[Pens1566]

The impact depends on who the 3rd party candidate is.

If Trump loses the GQP nomination to DeSantis and Trump runs as 3rd party? Guaranteed D win.

If it's Liz Cheney, I think it likely means the GQP candidate will win. She'll pull from the center where in a two party race those votes would go away from the crazy of Trump/DeSantis.

 

[Meghan54]

The impact depends on who the 3rd party candidate is.

If Trump loses the GQP nomination to DeSantis and Trump runs as 3rd party? Guaranteed D win.

If it's Liz Cheney, I think it likely means the GQP candidate will win. She'll pull from the center where in a two party race those votes would go away from the crazy of Trump/DeSantis.

Just curious as to why you think Liz Cheney would ensure a Trump or DeSantis win in ‘24 by running third party when she obviously despises both.

I’d think she’d rather watch the GOP commit suicide again and then come in in ‘26 to reclaim the party. But probably a fantasy on my part.

 

[Pens1566]

Just curious as to why you think Liz Cheney would ensure a Trump or DeSantis win in ‘24 by running third party when she obviously despises both.

I’d think she’d rather watch the GOP commit suicide again and then come in in ‘26 to reclaim the party. But probably a fantasy on my part.

Do you why she'd consider running? I have no idea. Just that it's been floated and whispered about.

 

[igor_kavinski]

King Louie in Jungle Book gives Trump hope that he can be the King of the Jungle too!

 

[eelw]

The impact depends on who the 3rd party candidate is.

If Trump loses the GQP nomination to DeSantis and Trump runs as 3rd party? Guaranteed D win.

If it's Liz Cheney, I think it likely means the GQP candidate will win. She'll pull from the center where in a two party race those votes would go away from the crazy of Trump/DeSantis.

She’d definitely pull more votes than both Stein and Johnson combined. But I’d think she’d get more never orange monkey R’s than D’s that don’t want Biden anymore.

 

[MrSquished]

There is literally no evidence right now that a third party is going to hurt the Democrats. There's no evidence it will hurt the Republicans either but from the current situation and the Republican party it does seem more likely they can get fucked by a third party candidate. If one wants to theorize.

 

[Pens1566]

She’d definitely pull more votes than both Stein and Johnson combined. But I’d think she’d get more never orange monkey R’s than D’s that don’t want Biden anymore.

A lot of those "never orange monkey" voters last time voted for Biden in '20. He'd lose that block almost entirely.

 

[eelw]

A lot of those "never orange monkey" voters last time voted for Biden in '20. He'd lost that block almost entirely.

I don’t think so. Many R’s like Larry Hogan and John Bolton wrote in a candidate rather than vote for a Dem. Or many R Georgia officials that just left that part blank and voted down ballot only.

 

[Pens1566]

I don’t think so. Many R’s like Larry Hogan and John Bolton wrote in a candidate rather than vote for a Dem. Or many R Georgia officials that just left that part blank and voted down ballot only.

Lincoln Project for one ... despite some of the complaints, they were a large enough block to make a difference. In other words, I think if they had just sat out then Trump likely gets re-elected.

edit: and I had a typo in the post you quoted. It should have said "He'd lose that block" not "He'd lost that block". I've corrected the original.

 

[Thump553]

If there is a big third party in 2024 it will be Trump's party. You think he is going to walk away quietly if he doesn't get the GQP nomination?