Hotline showing Obama up 4 nationally, Palin's favoriability ratings dropping

Stoneburner

Diamond Member
May 29, 2003
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<a target=_blank class=ftalter...cker091608data.pdf</a>


McCain's bounce started dying last week. Ras has him only up one and they always lean republican in polling. Gallup has shown mccain's largest leads and they should be out within an hour. The R2000 for Kos also has obama up 4.

It's a shame some people were prematurely ejaculating the last two weeks because of NATIONAL polls. It's still the simple truth that battle ground state polls will decide this election. But of particular import is the Palin stuff... her interview plus the news coming out about her has brought her to about where she belongs. McCain may be riding a dead horse if he continues using her as a magnet for the common peoples.
 

JulesMaximus

No Lifer
Jul 3, 2003
74,420
807
126
I guess people are starting to realize what a complete moron she really is. Maybe there is hope?
 

andy04

Senior member
Dec 14, 2006
999
0
71
Originally posted by: JulesMaximus
I guess people are starting to realize what a complete moron she really is. Maybe there is hope?
people are always stupid thats the reason we have two completely worthless piece of shits running for president... only reason BHO is getting votes is that he's black and ppl feel sorry that theirs neighbor?s ancestors captures slaves from the neighboring counties of where his dad lived.
I have heard this from soooo many ppl, they say if he does not get elected it will prove that we are racist ppl, they will be a big rift in the society? and more bullshit twisted logics like that.
 

winnar111

Banned
Mar 10, 2008
2,847
0
0
Originally posted by: Stoneburner
Ras has him only up one and they always lean republican in polling.
Say what?

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...asmussen_reports_polls

The final, certified, results of Election 2004 show that President George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while Senator John Kerry earned 48.3%. Those figures are very close to the final Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll. We projected the President would win 50.2% to 48.5%.

The table below shows Election Day results for each state compared to the final polling results we provided to Premium Members. During the final weekend, we provided polling data for 24 states and were 24 for 24.

 

miketheidiot

Lifer
Sep 3, 2004
11,062
1
0
Originally posted by: andy04
Originally posted by: JulesMaximus
I guess people are starting to realize what a complete moron she really is. Maybe there is hope?
people are always stupid thats the reason we have two completely worthless piece of shits running for president... only reason BHO is getting votes is that he's black and ppl feel sorry that theirs neighbor?s ancestors captures slaves from the neighboring counties of where his dad lived.
I have heard this from soooo many ppl, they say if he does not get elected it will prove that we are racist ppl, they will be a big rift in the society? and more bullshit twisted logics like that.
strange, i thought i was voting for obama because he seemed like a smart guy and his policies roughly conformed to my own perferences. silly me.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
They are using a 5 point spread between Democratic and Republican Party ID; others are using a 9 point spread.

And even then, with all of these polls, all we see are top line numbers, not construction and execution of polling, and how that may have changed over time (around time of Palin rollout, FiveThirtyEight wrote that they rejigged their models because it apparently wasn't reflecting the Palin bounce quickly enough).

 

Specop 007

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2005
9,454
0
0
To use the very, very old saying...

"It aint over till its over."

I'm not even going to try to predict whos going to win this one!
 

retrospooty

Platinum Member
Apr 3, 2002
2,031
74
86
Originally posted by: andy04
Originally posted by: JulesMaximus
I guess people are starting to realize what a complete moron she really is. Maybe there is hope?
people are always stupid thats the reason we have two completely worthless piece of shits running for president... only reason BHO is getting votes is that he's black and ppl feel sorry that theirs neighbor?s ancestors captures slaves from the neighboring counties of where his dad lived.
I have heard this from soooo many ppl, they say if he does not get elected it will prove that we are racist ppl, they will be a big rift in the society? and more bullshit twisted logics like that.
You are really lost.

I am personally voting for him because I think he has the best judgement and leadership skills of the options. I think he will do great things for our country, and I couldnt care less if he were black, white, asian or latino. Guess what? So is the same for 99% of his followers.

If he doesnt win, there wont be any riots, we will be fine. You need to relax and be more american and less chicken shit.


 

andy04

Senior member
Dec 14, 2006
999
0
71
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
Originally posted by: andy04
Originally posted by: JulesMaximus
I guess people are starting to realize what a complete moron she really is. Maybe there is hope?
people are always stupid thats the reason we have two completely worthless piece of shits running for president... only reason BHO is getting votes is that he's black and ppl feel sorry that theirs neighbor?s ancestors captures slaves from the neighboring counties of where his dad lived.
I have heard this from soooo many ppl, they say if he does not get elected it will prove that we are racist ppl, they will be a big rift in the society? and more bullshit twisted logics like that.
strange, i thought i was voting for obama because he seemed like a smart guy and his policies roughly conformed to my own perferences. silly me.
What policies are you talking about, none of them have yet put forth a single policy about how they will get us out of financial mess... Our economy need major overhaul start from scratch policies - what they both are giving are general make us feel good statements. Our products and services and only exported when dollar hits new lows how will we tackle that or we will just keep importing once/if our economy recovers..
What about Social security and Medicare?s future. We all are putting a substantial part of our pay in that but 20 years from now it has no future...
You are probably just leaning towards the lesser of the 2 evils biased by his charisma


 

QED

Diamond Member
Dec 16, 2005
3,428
3
0
Originally posted by: mshan
They are using a 5 point spread between Democratic and Republican Party ID; others are using a 9 point spread.

And even then, with all of these polls, all we see are top line numbers, not construction and execution of polling, and how that may have changed over time (around time of Palin rollout, FiveThirtyEight wrote that they rejigged their models because it apparently wasn't reflecting the Palin bounce quickly enough).
Some of the more respected pollsters don't weigh by Party ID's at all-- notably Gallup.
They let the chips fall where they may when it comes to who responds to their polls.
 

miketheidiot

Lifer
Sep 3, 2004
11,062
1
0
Originally posted by: andy04
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
Originally posted by: andy04
Originally posted by: JulesMaximus
I guess people are starting to realize what a complete moron she really is. Maybe there is hope?
people are always stupid thats the reason we have two completely worthless piece of shits running for president... only reason BHO is getting votes is that he's black and ppl feel sorry that theirs neighbor?s ancestors captures slaves from the neighboring counties of where his dad lived.
I have heard this from soooo many ppl, they say if he does not get elected it will prove that we are racist ppl, they will be a big rift in the society? and more bullshit twisted logics like that.
strange, i thought i was voting for obama because he seemed like a smart guy and his policies roughly conformed to my own perferences. silly me.
What policies are you talking about, none of them have yet put forth a single policy about how they will get us out of financial mess... Our economy need major overhaul start from scratch policies - what they both are giving are general make us feel good statements. Our products and services and only exported when dollar hits new lows how will we tackle that or we will just keep importing once/if our economy recovers..
What about Social security and Medicare?s future. We all are putting a substantial part of our pay in that but 20 years from now it has no future...
You are probably just leaning towards the lesser of the 2 evils biased by his charisma
the only reason you think this is because you haven't actually looked. Both candidates have policy goals lined out already.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,068
498
126
Originally posted by: Specop 007
To use the very, very old saying...

"It aint over till its over."

I'm not even going to try to predict whos going to win this one!
This is going to be a nail biter to the end.
 

Stoneburner

Diamond Member
May 29, 2003
3,491
0
76
Gallup is closed to plus 1 mccain just like raskassmussen.


And yes this is going to be close, non incumbent elections typically are. The only way it wont be close is if one of them fucks up a debate VERY badly. Which is why they will both be tenative and the debates will suck. In fact, this is the first election where i am not looking forward to any of the debates.
 

JulesMaximus

No Lifer
Jul 3, 2003
74,420
807
126
Originally posted by: andy04
Originally posted by: JulesMaximus
I guess people are starting to realize what a complete moron she really is. Maybe there is hope?
people are always stupid thats the reason we have two completely worthless piece of shits running for president... only reason BHO is getting votes is that he's black and ppl feel sorry that theirs neighbor?s ancestors captures slaves from the neighboring counties of where his dad lived.
I have heard this from soooo many ppl, they say if he does not get elected it will prove that we are racist ppl, they will be a big rift in the society? and more bullshit twisted logics like that.
Well, at least he's not a complete moron.
 

andy04

Senior member
Dec 14, 2006
999
0
71
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
Originally posted by: andy04
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
Originally posted by: andy04
Originally posted by: JulesMaximus
I guess people are starting to realize what a complete moron she really is. Maybe there is hope?
people are always stupid thats the reason we have two completely worthless piece of shits running for president... only reason BHO is getting votes is that he's black and ppl feel sorry that theirs neighbor?s ancestors captures slaves from the neighboring counties of where his dad lived.
I have heard this from soooo many ppl, they say if he does not get elected it will prove that we are racist ppl, they will be a big rift in the society? and more bullshit twisted logics like that.
strange, i thought i was voting for obama because he seemed like a smart guy and his policies roughly conformed to my own perferences. silly me.
What policies are you talking about, none of them have yet put forth a single policy about how they will get us out of financial mess... Our economy need major overhaul start from scratch policies - what they both are giving are general make us feel good statements. Our products and services and only exported when dollar hits new lows how will we tackle that or we will just keep importing once/if our economy recovers..
What about Social security and Medicare?s future. We all are putting a substantial part of our pay in that but 20 years from now it has no future...
You are probably just leaning towards the lesser of the 2 evils biased by his charisma
the only reason you think this is because you haven't actually looked. Both candidates have policy goals lined out already.
dude its a blah blah... they are just more of acknowledgement of the problem rather than solutions.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
Statistical analysis could be fundamentally sound and the results still totally meaningless if, intentionally or not, one is not getting truly random samples[/u] of data upon which to base the analysis.

This is probably why Chuck Todd said that the quality of publicly available polls is very poor, and to just watch which states the candidates keep returning to to figure where the real battlegrounds are.

Garbage in, garbage out...

 

miketheidiot

Lifer
Sep 3, 2004
11,062
1
0
Originally posted by: andy04
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
Originally posted by: andy04
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
Originally posted by: andy04
Originally posted by: JulesMaximus
I guess people are starting to realize what a complete moron she really is. Maybe there is hope?
people are always stupid thats the reason we have two completely worthless piece of shits running for president... only reason BHO is getting votes is that he's black and ppl feel sorry that theirs neighbor?s ancestors captures slaves from the neighboring counties of where his dad lived.
I have heard this from soooo many ppl, they say if he does not get elected it will prove that we are racist ppl, they will be a big rift in the society? and more bullshit twisted logics like that.
strange, i thought i was voting for obama because he seemed like a smart guy and his policies roughly conformed to my own perferences. silly me.
What policies are you talking about, none of them have yet put forth a single policy about how they will get us out of financial mess... Our economy need major overhaul start from scratch policies - what they both are giving are general make us feel good statements. Our products and services and only exported when dollar hits new lows how will we tackle that or we will just keep importing once/if our economy recovers..
What about Social security and Medicare?s future. We all are putting a substantial part of our pay in that but 20 years from now it has no future...
You are probably just leaning towards the lesser of the 2 evils biased by his charisma
the only reason you think this is because you haven't actually looked. Both candidates have policy goals lined out already.
dude its a blah blah... they are just more of acknowledgement of the problem rather than solutions.
like i said, you just aren't paying attention. Do you get your news from the pop-media?
 
Feb 10, 2000
30,029
66
91
Originally posted by: Genx87
Originally posted by: Specop 007
To use the very, very old saying...

"It aint over till its over."

I'm not even going to try to predict whos going to win this one!
This is going to be a nail biter to the end.
I doubt it. I don't see the election being especially close, and certainly not as close as 2000 or 2004. I betcha that by the end of October Obama is up by 8 points in the polls and takes the election by a decisive margin.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,068
498
126
Originally posted by: Don Vito Corleone
Originally posted by: Genx87
Originally posted by: Specop 007
To use the very, very old saying...

"It aint over till its over."

I'm not even going to try to predict whos going to win this one!
This is going to be a nail biter to the end.
I doubt it. I don't see the election being especially close, and certainly not as close as 2000 or 2004. I betcha that by the end of October Obama is up by 8 points in the polls and takes the election by a decisive margin.
No offense but every single prediction by people on the democrat side of the aisle has fallen flat on its face. It will be close. 8 points is nearly a landslide in this current political climate.

 

nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
54,488
7,090
126
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
like i said, you just aren't paying attention. Do you get your news from the pop-media?
Nah, he's just a right wing partisan hack... that, or a troll. Maybe both. I haven't quite figured him out yet.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
69,011
4,779
126
It absolutely defies reason to imagine after 8 years of total disaster, a terrible unnecessary war, economic collapse, massive debt, world wide loss of prestige, the destruction of military capacity to defend against new dangers, and millions of other points, that the American people would vote for 4 more years of McIdiots, but it looks as if millions of the brain dead will anyway. Your emotional attachment to the label Republican, when all the evidence points out Republican is a ticket for disaster, tells you how much more people value their egotistical attachments than the value their fellow citizens.
 

jonks

Lifer
Feb 7, 2005
13,918
19
81
Originally posted by: Genx87
No offense but every single prediction by people on the democrat side of the aisle has fallen flat on its face. It will be close. 8 points is nearly a landslide in this current political climate.
No offense taken, especially considering the wealth of republicans who predicted a year ago that mccain would be the nominee. oh wait...
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,377
1
0
This doesn't surprise me at all. Palin was nothing more than a symbol until last week. She has now been reduced to nothing more than another candidate. Therefore, her weaknesses are now having an impact.

As it stands, Oprah won't even permit her on her show and pretty much every single women's TV network hates her. That's just the tip of the iceberg too. I realize that some people might think that such things are petty and meaningless, but I wouldn't under estimate how powerful of an influence those shows and networks can be for a lot of women.

The media has been at the edge of their seats waiting for this to happen. They saw it coming. Now they are pouncing with ratings and dollar signs in their eyes.
 

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