Holder's Ballot Given to Young Man

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thraashman

Lifer
Apr 10, 2000
11,112
1,587
126
You did the math, before or after monkeys flew out of your butt?

Seriously though, you have anything resembling a fact to back up those numbers? Second time I have asked btw (although not specifically from you).

http://www.brennancenter.org/content/resource/policy_brief_on_the_truth_about_voter_fraud/ indicates a voter fraud rate ranging from 0.00004% to 0.00009%.

http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2011/12/02/381172/reince-priebus-voter-fraud/?mobile=nc actually has the highest rate I've seen listed at 0.0002%

http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion...-ID-laws-disenfranchise-Americans-3205446.php References that 11% of Americans don't have an id that would allow them to vote.

http://www.brennancenter.org/content/section/category/voter_id reiterates that 11%

I actually used a lower estimate rate I'd seen of 10% without id.
But, take 11% divided by the lowest estimate rate of 0.00004 and you have a 1:275,000 ratio
Or take 11% divided by the highest estimate of 0.0002% and you get a 1:55,000 ratio.

So, there you go. There's your facts. Though I've seen you deny facts presented to you many times before so I doubt you'll accept these.
 
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First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
10,518
271
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Fixed. I'd love for you to prove otherwise with all your documented facts.

Thank you for this Democrat partisan hack meme from one of the biggest Democrat partisan hacks in the forum. Next time we want the official Democrat line we'll make sure to mention your name.

BS, pure and simple.

Such a bold statement of fact should be easy to back up, correct?

Yup, easy to back up, see thraashman post above.

Now STFU and stay out of big boy conversations.
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,329
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In American politics, all parties are endless inventive in finding new ways of rigging the vote. Tactics like Gerrymandering, poll taxes, ethnic profiling, butterfly ballots, and now electronic voting machines, add rich new ways to be inventive.


BULLSHIT!!!!!! Its only the (insert party you dislike) that is doing it!!

On a serious note, I completely agree.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,007
55,444
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For those who want actual numbers:

Brennan Center for Justice statistics on electoral fraud
If the studies cited by the Brennan Center are correct, substantiated voter fraud in the United States since the 2000 elections (inclusive) occurred at a rate <0.0003%, and none of the fraudulent votes detected could have been prevented by the current fad of Voter ID laws.

The South Carolina Republican solution to this rampant fraud is to require picture IDs at the same time that personnel levels at the state-run DMV offices (where those IDs would be issued) have been reduced by 20%...

You will never get an honest answer to this, because there isn't one. At this point I can't imagine how it is anything other than willful denial of reality and a willful misunderstanding of the actual arguments. This has been gone over so many times, and the facts are so completely clear, that anyone still arguing for voter ID laws due to the prevalence of in person voter fraud is simply being dishonest with themselves, or with us.

The argument is NOT that in person voter fraud is impossible. The argument is that levels of in-person voter fraud of the type that picture ID's would prevent is so small as a percentage of votes, that it suppresses far more legitimate votes than the illegitimate votes it prevents. It's a simple cost benefit analysis. The evidence isn't even close.

Not to mention that the cynical way in which Republicans ignore absentee ballot fraud while pushing against in person voter fraud completely exposes the naked partisan effort at voter suppression for unfriendly constituencies. It's repulsive.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
13,805
11,450
136
Did the truth sting?

You tell us ...

http://www.brennancenter.org/content/resource/policy_brief_on_the_truth_about_voter_fraud/ indicates a voter fraud rate ranging from 0.00004% to 0.00009%.

http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2011/12/02/381172/reince-priebus-voter-fraud/?mobile=nc actually has the highest rate I've seen listed at 0.0002%

http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion...-ID-laws-disenfranchise-Americans-3205446.php References that 11% of Americans don't have an id that would allow them to vote.

http://www.brennancenter.org/content/section/category/voter_id reiterates that 11%

I actually used a lower estimate rate I'd seen of 10% without id.
But, take 11% divided by the lowest estimate rate of 0.00004 and you have a 1:275,000 ratio
Or take 11% divided by the highest estimate of 0.0002% and you get a 1:55,000 ratio.

So, there you go. There's your facts. Though I've seen you deny facts presented to you many times before so I doubt you'll accept these.
 

First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
10,518
271
136
^ I wonder if we're going to get yet further bitch-outs on these facts. I eagerly await the next excuse for why voter ID does more good than harm in our democratic elections.
 

FuzzyBee

Diamond Member
Jan 22, 2000
5,172
1
81
http://www.brennancenter.org/content/resource/policy_brief_on_the_truth_about_voter_fraud/ indicates a voter fraud rate ranging from 0.00004% to 0.00009%.

http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2011/12/02/381172/reince-priebus-voter-fraud/?mobile=nc actually has the highest rate I've seen listed at 0.0002%

http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion...-ID-laws-disenfranchise-Americans-3205446.php References that 11% of Americans don't have an id that would allow them to vote.

http://www.brennancenter.org/content/section/category/voter_id reiterates that 11%

I actually used a lower estimate rate I'd seen of 10% without id.
But, take 11% divided by the lowest estimate rate of 0.00004 and you have a 1:275,000 ratio
Or take 11% divided by the highest estimate of 0.0002% and you get a 1:55,000 ratio.

So, there you go. There's your facts. Though I've seen you deny facts presented to you many times before so I doubt you'll accept these.

What "facts" are these? Let's break these sources down:

1) Brennan Center - They don't list *any* cases of somebody taking someone else's phone bill in to vote. How would they have determined if this had happened if the individual whose phone bill was taken didn't attempt to vote? Did they even attempt to call anybody that was registered as having voted to verify whether or not they'd actually voted?

2) Think Progress - see above (since it's just talking about the same study)

3) (and 4, since #3 is an editorial that points to #4) I find it very interesting that nearly every one of the references to this 5-year-old study point to the Brennan Center, yet none point to the actual data. I also find it interesting that the data has been "adjusted": Although the results of this survey were weighted to account for underrepresentation of race, they were not weighted to account for a likely skew toward higher-income households. Where are the actual results of this survey?

It seems like everything points back in a circle to the Brennan Center and their mysterious data, combined with the incompleteness of the studies they reference.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,007
55,444
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What "facts" are these? Let's break these sources down:

1) Brennan Center - They don't list *any* cases of somebody taking someone else's phone bill in to vote. How would they have determined if this had happened if the individual whose phone bill was taken didn't attempt to vote? Did they even attempt to call anybody that was registered as having voted to verify whether or not they'd actually voted?

2) Think Progress - see above (since it's just talking about the same study)

3) (and 4, since #3 is an editorial that points to #4) I find it very interesting that nearly every one of the references to this 5-year-old study point to the Brennan Center, yet none point to the actual data. I also find it interesting that the data has been "adjusted": Although the results of this survey were weighted to account for underrepresentation of race, they were not weighted to account for a likely skew toward higher-income households. Where are the actual results of this survey?

It seems like everything points back in a circle to the Brennan Center and their mysterious data, combined with the incompleteness of the studies they reference.

You realize that when millions of people vote millions of times and significant numbers of people try to commit voter fraud that eventually you start having people who show up to vote (or vote absentee) where there is a vote already recorded under their name. It doesn't matter if it happens every time, it will show up enough. Despite this statistical certainty, there is basically no evidence of it occurring. The only rational response to this is to accept that it simply does not occur with any frequency.

Adjustment in order to account for various sampling problems is a very well documented and very well supported method.

How long will people keep trying to make excuses for nakedly partisan voter suppression efforts? Completely. Nakedly. Partisan. They don't even try to hide it, so why apologize for this despicable behavior?
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
You will never get an honest answer to this, because there isn't one. At this point I can't imagine how it is anything other than willful denial of reality and a willful misunderstanding of the actual arguments. This has been gone over so many times, and the facts are so completely clear, that anyone still arguing for voter ID laws due to the prevalence of in person voter fraud is simply being dishonest with themselves, or with us.

The argument is NOT that in person voter fraud is impossible. The argument is that levels of in-person voter fraud of the type that picture ID's would prevent is so small as a percentage of votes, that it suppresses far more legitimate votes than the illegitimate votes it prevents. It's a simple cost benefit analysis. The evidence isn't even close.

Not to mention that the cynical way in which Republicans ignore absentee ballot fraud while pushing against in person voter fraud completely exposes the naked partisan effort at voter suppression for unfriendly constituencies. It's repulsive.
Let's make an analogy. Say I have a grocery store and the clerks make their deposits with no corresponding paper trails, they just turn in some amount every shift. Every once in a great while I'll actually see a clerk pocket some money, but other than that I have zero way to know if I'm being ripped off because I have no paper audit showing how much money I should be taking in. Your argument is that since I very seldom see a clerk ripping me off, the clerks very seldom rip me off and therefore I have no need for a paper trail.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,007
55,444
136
Let's make an analogy. Say I have a grocery store and the clerks make their deposits with no corresponding paper trails, they just turn in some amount every shift. Every once in a great while I'll actually see a clerk pocket some money, but other than that I have zero way to know if I'm being ripped off because I have no paper audit showing how much money I should be taking in. Your argument is that since I very seldom see a clerk ripping me off, the clerks very seldom rip me off and therefore I have no need for a paper trail.

Are you trying to say that there are no voter records? If so this is extremely wrong. The types of records that we keep would absolutely show evidence of in-person voter fraud if it were occurring. It would not show every case, but it is a statistical certainty that we would be able to detect it.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
13,805
11,450
136
Let's make an analogy. Say I have a grocery store and the clerks make their deposits with no corresponding paper trails, they just turn in some amount every shift. Every once in a great while I'll actually see a clerk pocket some money, but other than that I have zero way to know if I'm being ripped off because I have no paper audit showing how much money I should be taking in. Your argument is that since I very seldom see a clerk ripping me off, the clerks very seldom rip me off and therefore I have no need for a paper trail.

That would be an acceptable analogy IF you also had the possibility of yet another clerk from the same register showing up earlier/later to also turn in from the same register. If that happened, you'd have your answers. Otherwise, it doesn't fit.
 

FuzzyBee

Diamond Member
Jan 22, 2000
5,172
1
81
You realize that when millions of people vote millions of times and significant numbers of people try to commit voter fraud that eventually you start having people who show up to vote (or vote absentee) where there is a vote already recorded under their name. It doesn't matter if it happens every time, it will show up enough. Despite this statistical certainty, there is basically no evidence of it occurring. The only rational response to this is to accept that it simply does not occur with any frequency.

Adjustment in order to account for various sampling problems is a very well documented and very well supported method.

How long will people keep trying to make excuses for nakedly partisan voter suppression efforts? Completely. Nakedly. Partisan. They don't even try to hide it, so why apologize for this despicable behavior?

The study never indicates this, in either direction, yet you state it as fact.

I do like how you keep a civil tongue, though. :rolleyes:
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,007
55,444
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The study never indicates this, in either direction, yet you state it as fact.

I do like how you keep a civil tongue, though. :rolleyes:

The study doesn't need to say that because math is a fact.

If you have nontrivial numbers of people committing voter fraud in this way, over a time span involving millions of votes and at least thousands of cases of voter fraud (otherwise they would be so infrequent as to be entirely irrelevant), sampling that takes place through audits will show evidence of it. It doesn't.

The Republican belief of in-person voter fraud is simply an article of religious faith. It's time to get over it and deal with the real world.

If you believe this is not an effort at voter suppression then please explain why those who claim to care about the sanctity of our elections ignore absentee ballot fraud (a far greater source of fraudulent ballots) while attacking in-person fraud for which there is almost no evidence.
 
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FuzzyBee

Diamond Member
Jan 22, 2000
5,172
1
81
The study doesn't need to say that because math is a fact.

If you have nontrivial numbers of people committing voter fraud in this way, over a time span involving millions of votes and at least thousands of cases of voter fraud (otherwise they would be so infrequent as to be entirely irrelevant), sampling that takes place through audits will show evidence of it. It doesn't.

The Republican belief of in-person voter fraud is simply an article of religious faith. It's time to get over it and deal with the real world.

WHAT MATH!?

You keep saying "the math" as if you have something to back it up with, but you don't. The all-powerful Brennan Center report mentions NOTHING of this in either direction. Considering they obviously are attempting to prove a point, wouldn't they point out evidence that this scenario *doesn't* happen?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,007
55,444
136
WHAT MATH!?

You keep saying "the math" as if you have something to back it up with, but you don't. The all-powerful Brennan Center report mentions NOTHING of this in either direction. Considering they obviously are attempting to prove a point, wouldn't they point out evidence that this scenario *doesn't* happen?

ALL MATH. AS IN, THE EXISTENCE OF MATH AND STATISTICS. I've already explained it to you in two separate posts.
 

FuzzyBee

Diamond Member
Jan 22, 2000
5,172
1
81
ALL MATH. AS IN, THE EXISTENCE OF MATH AND STATISTICS. I've already explained it to you in two separate posts.

Actually, you haven't. You have pointed to nothing other than thin air. Where are your statistics? *Please* point me back to the Brennan Center study. *Please*.

I think that you don't realize that math takes data.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,007
55,444
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Actually, you haven't. You have pointed to nothing other than thin air. Where are your statistics? *Please* point me back to the Brennan Center study. *Please*.

I think that you don't realize that math takes data.

Actually, all math does not take data. What I'm talking about are mathematical proofs that form the basis for basically all statistics.

I'm getting the strong impression that you don't understand how statistics works, so I'll walk you through this.

It is a fact that we have had thousands of elections in America in which millions of people have voted.

It is also a fact that our voting systems record whether or not someone has voted as well as a system by which to detect if two people attempt to vote using the same identity.

It is a fact that voting results are periodically audited by various agencies.

It is basically a mathematical certainty that if nontrivial numbers of people were attempting to vote using another's identity that you would record a statistically significant number of double votes attached to a single registration.

Since this has not occurred, there is no reason whatsoever to believe that such voter fraud is taking place.

I hope this has been helpful.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
Are you trying to say that there are no voter records? If so this is extremely wrong. The types of records that we keep would absolutely show evidence of in-person voter fraud if it were occurring. It would not show every case, but it is a statistical certainty that we would be able to detect it.
<sigh> No, I'm not trying to argue that there are no voter records. I'm trying to argue that IF someone does not vote, and IF someone else knows that (and both parties keep registration records) and votes as him, the only way you'd catch the illegal vote is if the person who habitually does not vote suddenly decided to vote, therefore logging two votes for that person.

Another potential type of fraud is when a person is made up, either completely or in the listed place. A high percentage of same day registration packets typically come back undeliverable. One of the big problems I had with the Brennan Center study is that unless it definitely found someone voting twice, or someone voting who is not eligible, they assumed the vote was legitimate. If the person who registered cannot be found at the address given just a few weeks earlier, my assumption is just the opposite - that this person is not a legitimate voter.

There is obviously the same problem with absentee voting, and I'm certainly up for changing absentee voting to require early in-person voting with ID.

Just as with the Brennan Center's project to "fix" democracy by ending the filibuster, we see that their interest is not nearly so much in empowering democracy as in empowering Democrats.

That would be an acceptable analogy IF you also had the possibility of yet another clerk from the same register showing up earlier/later to also turn in from the same register. If that happened, you'd have your answers. Otherwise, it doesn't fit.
I attempted to fit in a situation analogous to the above example using an observed theft, an occasional occurrence that results in the thief being caught. But really, any posited mechanism that results in an occasional bust will do.
 

FuzzyBee

Diamond Member
Jan 22, 2000
5,172
1
81
Actually, all math does not take data. What I'm talking about are mathematical proofs that form the basis for basically all statistics.

I'm getting the strong impression that you don't understand how statistics works, so I'll walk you through this.

It is a fact that we have had thousands of elections in America in which millions of people have voted.

It is also a fact that our voting systems record whether or not someone has voted as well as a system by which to detect if two people attempt to vote using the same identity.

It is a fact that voting results are periodically audited by various agencies.

It is basically a mathematical certainty that if nontrivial numbers of people were attempting to vote using another's identity that you would record a statistically significant number of double votes attached to a single registration.

Since this has not occurred, there is no reason whatsoever to believe that such voter fraud is taking place.

I hope this has been helpful.

I hope you realize that a lack of statistics is not statistics itself, no matter how much you want to tell yourself it is. What are they going to record? Arrests? How would they know who the criminal was that voted first?

I believe that you've convinced yourself that people that haven't voted in years (and would be eligible candidates for somebody swiping their phone bill to vote for them) would suddenly decide to vote. That would make sense if a vast majority of the voting-eligible population actually utilized their right to vote, but they don't. Heck - 2008 was a banner year, and just a little bit more than half of the registered voters turned out - or at least that many votes were turned in. There's some data for you.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,007
55,444
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<sigh> No, I'm not trying to argue that there are no voter records. I'm trying to argue that IF someone does not vote, and IF someone else knows that (and both parties keep registration records) and votes as him, the only way you'd catch the illegal vote is if the person who habitually does not vote suddenly decided to vote, therefore logging two votes for that person.

So you are alleging a conspiracy in which parties hire individuals to comb voter registration records for infrequent voters in order to send out individuals who will risk a felony at every polling station for each additional vote? Do you realize how ridiculous this conspiracy theory is? If you want to commit organized voter fraud this is about the worst way imaginable. This is simply not a credible theory as it would be a total waste of money, time, and effort.

Furthermore, voting patterns are not that static. People frequently go years without voting and then start again. You would most certainly encounter significant numbers of double votes even with an attempt to target only infrequent voters who have decided to register anyway.

Another potential type of fraud is when a person is made up, either completely or in the listed place. A high percentage of same day registration packets typically come back undeliverable. One of the big problems I had with the Brennan Center study is that unless it definitely found someone voting twice, or someone voting who is not eligible, they assumed the vote was legitimate. If the person who registered cannot be found at the address given just a few weeks earlier, my assumption is just the opposite - that this person is not a legitimate voter.

There is obviously the same problem with absentee voting, and I'm certainly up for changing absentee voting to require early in-person voting with ID.

They didn't assume the vote was legitimate, they just didn't use that as evidence of voter fraud due to the multiplicity of factors that could contribute to such a thing. It would be impossible to use such a grey area as actual evidence. They concentrated on areas that were concrete, provable facts. If in-person voter fraud were actually occurring on a large scale, they should have gotten plenty of hits from it. They didn't.

This is partisan political election engineering, period.

Just as with the Brennan Center's project to "fix" democracy by ending the filibuster, we see that their interest is not nearly so much in empowering democracy as in empowering Democrats.


I attempted to fit in a situation analogous to the above example using an observed theft, an occasional occurrence that results in the thief being caught. But really, any posited mechanism that results in an occasional bust will do.[/QUOTE]
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,007
55,444
136
I hope you realize that a lack of statistics is not statistics itself, no matter how much you want to tell yourself it is. What are they going to record? Arrests? How would they know who the criminal was that voted first?

I believe that you've convinced yourself that people that haven't voted in years (and would be eligible candidates for somebody swiping their phone bill to vote for them) would suddenly decide to vote. That would make sense if a vast majority of the voting-eligible population actually utilized their right to vote, but they don't. Heck - 2008 was a banner year, and just a little bit more than half of the registered voters turned out - or at least that many votes were turned in. There's some data for you.

This post makes it abundantly clear that you have no idea what you're talking about.

You don't count arrests, you count two votes under the same registration. It is irrelevant as to who voted first for this exercise, as you are merely trying to prove the existence of fraud, not prosecute someone for doing it.

Of course people who haven't voted in years suddenly decide to vote sometimes. It in no way requires the vast majority of the population to vote. This is Statistics 101.
 

FuzzyBee

Diamond Member
Jan 22, 2000
5,172
1
81
Furthermore, voting patterns are not that static. People frequently go years without voting and then start again. You would most certainly encounter significant numbers of double votes even with an attempt to target only infrequent voters who have decided to register anyway.

Evidence, or is this just another anecdotal statement?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,007
55,444
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Evidence, or is this just another anecdotal statement?

Do you know what an anecdote is?

Are you seriously attempting to claim that people either vote often or not at all? If not, then you are implicitly agreeing with me that infrequent voters return to voting.