History of US oil consumption and MPG rates

[LegendKiller]

I would be curious to know the US barrel consuption and MPG rates over the last 50 years. My mother in law seems to think that consumption (mpg and barrel) did not go down, especially mpg.

We got into a discussion (heated) that a price increase would or would not decrease the number of SUV's on the road, me advocating $5/gal prices, her saying she spends too much already (she drives 240mi in a civic non hybrid). I gladly pay the increased price, but she complains and thinks I am an arse (nothing new there, she is a mil).

Would we become a fuel efficient country if prices were taxed so heavily with that being reinvested in alt-sources/research, that SUV's would mostly disappear?

Did it happen during the energy crisis?

 

[Jmman]

Of course prices impact consumption patterns and the type of vehicle. During the early 70's high gas prices killed the muscle car, and if prices remain at this level they will kill the SUV as well. I am pretty sure that SUV sales have tanked over the last year or so.....

 

[LegendKiller]

Logically yes, which is what I stated. However, being lesser educated in this area, she disputes that. I am looking for some hard data, if it exists.

 

[Jmman]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Logically yes, which is what I stated. However, being lesser educated in this area, she disputes that. I am looking for some hard data, if it exists.

Some interesting information here for a chronology of the 1970 embargo and its consequences.....

Text

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Logically yes, which is what I stated. However, being lesser educated in this area, she disputes that. I am looking for some hard data, if it exists.

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
I gladly pay the increased price

You gladly pay the increased price

/thread

 

[Rainsford]

The thing about a market like the oil market is that, in the short term, demand is inelastic. We need a certain amount of oil to function as a society, that amount is a function of many factors, most of them difficult to change in the short term. Most of us can't simply reduce our consumption at the spur of the moment, and it holds even more true for business users. Most of my oil consumption is through driving to work and various places around town. I can't not drive to work, given the sad lack of public transportation where I live, and I just got a new car, so I'm not going to rush out and buy one with better MPG (although mine is MUCH better than the average tank on the road today in that respect).

Given that, demand for oil is relativly inelastic for short term fluctuations. We all might bitch and moan, but changing our consumption patterns is too difficult in the short term. However, if the currently high prices persist, we'll see a HUGE shift away from our current wasteful oil consumption habits. Europe is a good model for this. If long term prices stay high, it gives the country incentive to develop ways to cut consumption, as the return will be seen over a long period of time. Public transit, always a low point in the vast majority of America, will become much closer to how it looks in Europe. More trains, subways and busses for short and long distance travel. We'll also drive smaller and more efficient vehicles. Again, Europe has SUVs, but they are enough of a rarity that seeing them is kind of a surprise, while in the US you can't go 10 feet without seeing one. I also suspect that the current pattern of suburban growth will reverse itself, as it becomes less economical to live out in the burbs and commute into the city. Of course I'm talking fairly long term here, but if oil prices stay high, we WILL see these things happen. Even longer term, oil alternatives will become much more of a hot button issue. Right now, oil is a good deal, and while alternative sources of energy are a scientificly interesting area, there is less economic incentive to persue them. When the economics make sense, we'll see a MASSIVE push in that field as well.

The idea that our current energy consumption patterns have nothing to do with prices is stupid, high prices will change them because low prices brought them about in the first place. The growth of suburban areas came about mostly because low fuel prices made it easy to live in the pseudo-country and work in the city. The SUV became popular because, although they are hugely wasteful vehicles, the relative costs were low enough to make them economical for many consumers. You can see the reversal aready, try and watch a car commercial today and see how many mention fuel economy. 6 years ago, I don't think that would have been much of a selling point.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Rainsford
The thing about a market like the oil market is that, in the short term, demand is inelastic. We need a certain amount of oil to function as a society, that amount is a function of many factors, most of them difficult to change in the short term. Most of us can't simply reduce our consumption at the spur of the moment, and it holds even more true for business users. Most of my oil consumption is through driving to work and various places around town. I can't not drive to work, given the sad lack of public transportation where I live, and I just got a new car, so I'm not going to rush out and buy one with better MPG (although mine is MUCH better than the average tank on the road today in that respect).

Given that, demand for oil is relativly inelastic for short term fluctuations. We all might bitch and moan, but changing our consumption patterns is too difficult in the short term. However, if the currently high prices persist, we'll see a HUGE shift away from our current wasteful oil consumption habits. Europe is a good model for this. If long term prices stay high, it gives the country incentive to develop ways to cut consumption, as the return will be seen over a long period of time. Public transit, always a low point in the vast majority of America, will become much closer to how it looks in Europe. More trains, subways and busses for short and long distance travel. We'll also drive smaller and more efficient vehicles. Again, Europe has SUVs, but they are enough of a rarity that seeing them is kind of a surprise, while in the US you can't go 10 feet without seeing one. I also suspect that the current pattern of suburban growth will reverse itself, as it becomes less economical to live out in the burbs and commute into the city. Of course I'm talking fairly long term here, but if oil prices stay high, we WILL see these things happen. Even longer term, oil alternatives will become much more of a hot button issue. Right now, oil is a good deal, and while alternative sources of energy are a scientificly interesting area, there is less economic incentive to persue them. When the economics make sense, we'll see a MASSIVE push in that field as well.

The idea that our current energy consumption patterns have nothing to do with prices is stupid, high prices will change them because low prices brought them about in the first place. The growth of suburban areas came about mostly because low fuel prices made it easy to live in the pseudo-country and work in the city. The SUV became popular because, although they are hugely wasteful vehicles, the relative costs were low enough to make them economical for many consumers. You can see the reversal aready, try and watch a car commercial today and see how many mention fuel economy. 6 years ago, I don't think that would have been much of a selling point.

Demand is not as inelastic as you make it sound. Consumers could drop fuel consumption overnight by 10-25% if they wanted to. Driving slower is an easy way to save fuel. Combining trips ia another easy way. Using the families most fuel effecient vehicle is yet another simple way. These little things add up.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Rainsford
The thing about a market like the oil market is that, in the short term, demand is inelastic. We need a certain amount of oil to function as a society, that amount is a function of many factors, most of them difficult to change in the short term. Most of us can't simply reduce our consumption at the spur of the moment, and it holds even more true for business users. Most of my oil consumption is through driving to work and various places around town. I can't not drive to work, given the sad lack of public transportation where I live, and I just got a new car, so I'm not going to rush out and buy one with better MPG (although mine is MUCH better than the average tank on the road today in that respect).

Given that, demand for oil is relativly inelastic for short term fluctuations. We all might bitch and moan, but changing our consumption patterns is too difficult in the short term. However, if the currently high prices persist, we'll see a HUGE shift away from our current wasteful oil consumption habits. Europe is a good model for this. If long term prices stay high, it gives the country incentive to develop ways to cut consumption, as the return will be seen over a long period of time. Public transit, always a low point in the vast majority of America, will become much closer to how it looks in Europe. More trains, subways and busses for short and long distance travel. We'll also drive smaller and more efficient vehicles. Again, Europe has SUVs, but they are enough of a rarity that seeing them is kind of a surprise, while in the US you can't go 10 feet without seeing one. I also suspect that the current pattern of suburban growth will reverse itself, as it becomes less economical to live out in the burbs and commute into the city. Of course I'm talking fairly long term here, but if oil prices stay high, we WILL see these things happen. Even longer term, oil alternatives will become much more of a hot button issue. Right now, oil is a good deal, and while alternative sources of energy are a scientificly interesting area, there is less economic incentive to persue them. When the economics make sense, we'll see a MASSIVE push in that field as well.

The idea that our current energy consumption patterns have nothing to do with prices is stupid, high prices will change them because low prices brought them about in the first place. The growth of suburban areas came about mostly because low fuel prices made it easy to live in the pseudo-country and work in the city. The SUV became popular because, although they are hugely wasteful vehicles, the relative costs were low enough to make them economical for many consumers. You can see the reversal aready, try and watch a car commercial today and see how many mention fuel economy. 6 years ago, I don't think that would have been much of a selling point.

Demand is not as inelastic as you make it sound. Consumers could drop fuel consumption overnight by 10-25% if they wanted to. Driving slower is an easy way to save fuel. Combining trips ia another easy way. Using the families most fuel effecient vehicle is yet another simple way. These little things add up.

I agree with you there. Everyday, I see people stomp on the gas to go from red light to red light. Acceleration, especially hard, is the worst MPG period of driving.

Other items that could be looked at, IMO, is traffic light tweaking and timing. How many times have you and a line of traffic been appraoching a smaller intersection to have it stop the entire line to let one car out? It happens often and with the computer and sensor power that we now have, there's no excuse for it.

Also, when building new roads, add more merge lanes and try to avoid stopping altogether if possible. If more roads would have been built this way over the years, the initial cost increases to construction would have been dwarfed by the gasoline savings over the years.

My wife has started driving my car more (for about the last year) because it gets much more mileage than hers. Also, trips are indeed planned out so that more can be done or I simply stop by on the way home from work, when I can, to do some of the shopping/banking, etc.

Driving a consistant speed (not up and down) helps tremendously. I see people run up on my bumper, back off, run up, back off. Their vehicle would average much better gasoline mileage with a steady pace with little acceleration involved.

Checking tire pressure and changing fluids and filters is also a solid way to keep performance up in the mileage dept.

EVERY little bit helps...especially with 100's of millions of people driving.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Rainsford
The thing about a market like the oil market is that, in the short term, demand is inelastic. We need a certain amount of oil to function as a society, that amount is a function of many factors, most of them difficult to change in the short term. Most of us can't simply reduce our consumption at the spur of the moment, and it holds even more true for business users. Most of my oil consumption is through driving to work and various places around town. I can't not drive to work, given the sad lack of public transportation where I live, and I just got a new car, so I'm not going to rush out and buy one with better MPG (although mine is MUCH better than the average tank on the road today in that respect).

Given that, demand for oil is relativly inelastic for short term fluctuations. We all might bitch and moan, but changing our consumption patterns is too difficult in the short term. However, if the currently high prices persist, we'll see a HUGE shift away from our current wasteful oil consumption habits. Europe is a good model for this. If long term prices stay high, it gives the country incentive to develop ways to cut consumption, as the return will be seen over a long period of time. Public transit, always a low point in the vast majority of America, will become much closer to how it looks in Europe. More trains, subways and busses for short and long distance travel. We'll also drive smaller and more efficient vehicles. Again, Europe has SUVs, but they are enough of a rarity that seeing them is kind of a surprise, while in the US you can't go 10 feet without seeing one. I also suspect that the current pattern of suburban growth will reverse itself, as it becomes less economical to live out in the burbs and commute into the city. Of course I'm talking fairly long term here, but if oil prices stay high, we WILL see these things happen. Even longer term, oil alternatives will become much more of a hot button issue. Right now, oil is a good deal, and while alternative sources of energy are a scientificly interesting area, there is less economic incentive to persue them. When the economics make sense, we'll see a MASSIVE push in that field as well.

The idea that our current energy consumption patterns have nothing to do with prices is stupid, high prices will change them because low prices brought them about in the first place. The growth of suburban areas came about mostly because low fuel prices made it easy to live in the pseudo-country and work in the city. The SUV became popular because, although they are hugely wasteful vehicles, the relative costs were low enough to make them economical for many consumers. You can see the reversal aready, try and watch a car commercial today and see how many mention fuel economy. 6 years ago, I don't think that would have been much of a selling point.

Demand is not as inelastic as you make it sound. Consumers could drop fuel consumption overnight by 10-25% if they wanted to. Driving slower is an easy way to save fuel. Combining trips ia another easy way. Using the families most fuel effecient vehicle is yet another simple way. These little things add up.

Sure, there ARE little things you can do that add up, many of which are simpler than the huge changes I was talking about. But in the short term, most people won't do them. People are willing to "ride out" temporary fluctuations in the price of gas, looking at it as one more of life's little hassles. It's only when they are faced with the prospect of higher gas prices for a long time will they even really think about alternatives.

 

[BaliBabyDoc]

I think Rainsford is closer to the practical issues.

There are a myriad of ways to increase mileage in your current automobile but the FUTURE of reduced consumption comes from fundamentally more efficient vehicles combined with changes in consumption behaviors.

Having said that . . . charrison is on to something. It's a shame we don't have any leadership on this issue.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Rainsford
The thing about a market like the oil market is that, in the short term, demand is inelastic. We need a certain amount of oil to function as a society, that amount is a function of many factors, most of them difficult to change in the short term. Most of us can't simply reduce our consumption at the spur of the moment, and it holds even more true for business users. Most of my oil consumption is through driving to work and various places around town. I can't not drive to work, given the sad lack of public transportation where I live, and I just got a new car, so I'm not going to rush out and buy one with better MPG (although mine is MUCH better than the average tank on the road today in that respect).

Given that, demand for oil is relativly inelastic for short term fluctuations. We all might bitch and moan, but changing our consumption patterns is too difficult in the short term. However, if the currently high prices persist, we'll see a HUGE shift away from our current wasteful oil consumption habits. Europe is a good model for this. If long term prices stay high, it gives the country incentive to develop ways to cut consumption, as the return will be seen over a long period of time. Public transit, always a low point in the vast majority of America, will become much closer to how it looks in Europe. More trains, subways and busses for short and long distance travel. We'll also drive smaller and more efficient vehicles. Again, Europe has SUVs, but they are enough of a rarity that seeing them is kind of a surprise, while in the US you can't go 10 feet without seeing one. I also suspect that the current pattern of suburban growth will reverse itself, as it becomes less economical to live out in the burbs and commute into the city. Of course I'm talking fairly long term here, but if oil prices stay high, we WILL see these things happen. Even longer term, oil alternatives will become much more of a hot button issue. Right now, oil is a good deal, and while alternative sources of energy are a scientificly interesting area, there is less economic incentive to persue them. When the economics make sense, we'll see a MASSIVE push in that field as well.

The idea that our current energy consumption patterns have nothing to do with prices is stupid, high prices will change them because low prices brought them about in the first place. The growth of suburban areas came about mostly because low fuel prices made it easy to live in the pseudo-country and work in the city. The SUV became popular because, although they are hugely wasteful vehicles, the relative costs were low enough to make them economical for many consumers. You can see the reversal aready, try and watch a car commercial today and see how many mention fuel economy. 6 years ago, I don't think that would have been much of a selling point.

Demand is not as inelastic as you make it sound. Consumers could drop fuel consumption overnight by 10-25% if they wanted to. Driving slower is an easy way to save fuel. Combining trips ia another easy way. Using the families most fuel effecient vehicle is yet another simple way. These little things add up.

Sure, there ARE little things you can do that add up, many of which are simpler than the huge changes I was talking about. But in the short term, most people won't do them. People are willing to "ride out" temporary fluctuations in the price of gas, looking at it as one more of life's little hassles. It's only when they are faced with the prospect of higher gas prices for a long time will they even really think about alternatives.

Which means most people are not really struggling with the price of gas. There are easy options to deal with price increase, but it appears most people are choosing to bitch and do nothing.

 

[3chordcharlie]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Rainsford
The thing about a market like the oil market is that, in the short term, demand is inelastic. We need a certain amount of oil to function as a society, that amount is a function of many factors, most of them difficult to change in the short term. Most of us can't simply reduce our consumption at the spur of the moment, and it holds even more true for business users. Most of my oil consumption is through driving to work and various places around town. I can't not drive to work, given the sad lack of public transportation where I live, and I just got a new car, so I'm not going to rush out and buy one with better MPG (although mine is MUCH better than the average tank on the road today in that respect).

Given that, demand for oil is relativly inelastic for short term fluctuations. We all might bitch and moan, but changing our consumption patterns is too difficult in the short term. However, if the currently high prices persist, we'll see a HUGE shift away from our current wasteful oil consumption habits. Europe is a good model for this. If long term prices stay high, it gives the country incentive to develop ways to cut consumption, as the return will be seen over a long period of time. Public transit, always a low point in the vast majority of America, will become much closer to how it looks in Europe. More trains, subways and busses for short and long distance travel. We'll also drive smaller and more efficient vehicles. Again, Europe has SUVs, but they are enough of a rarity that seeing them is kind of a surprise, while in the US you can't go 10 feet without seeing one. I also suspect that the current pattern of suburban growth will reverse itself, as it becomes less economical to live out in the burbs and commute into the city. Of course I'm talking fairly long term here, but if oil prices stay high, we WILL see these things happen. Even longer term, oil alternatives will become much more of a hot button issue. Right now, oil is a good deal, and while alternative sources of energy are a scientificly interesting area, there is less economic incentive to persue them. When the economics make sense, we'll see a MASSIVE push in that field as well.

The idea that our current energy consumption patterns have nothing to do with prices is stupid, high prices will change them because low prices brought them about in the first place. The growth of suburban areas came about mostly because low fuel prices made it easy to live in the pseudo-country and work in the city. The SUV became popular because, although they are hugely wasteful vehicles, the relative costs were low enough to make them economical for many consumers. You can see the reversal aready, try and watch a car commercial today and see how many mention fuel economy. 6 years ago, I don't think that would have been much of a selling point.

Demand is not as inelastic as you make it sound. Consumers could drop fuel consumption overnight by 10-25% if they wanted to. Driving slower is an easy way to save fuel. Combining trips ia another easy way. Using the families most fuel effecient vehicle is yet another simple way. These little things add up.

Sure, there ARE little things you can do that add up, many of which are simpler than the huge changes I was talking about. But in the short term, most people won't do them. People are willing to "ride out" temporary fluctuations in the price of gas, looking at it as one more of life's little hassles. It's only when they are faced with the prospect of higher gas prices for a long time will they even really think about alternatives.

Which means most people are not really struggling with the price of gas. There are easy options to deal with price increase, but it appears most people are choosing to bitch and do nothing.

All of which means 'in the short term the demand for gasoline is inelastic'.

This is why small shortages lead to massive price increases.

/thread

 

[BoomerD]

Our consumption of gasoline keeps going up, whiile production stays stagnant...THAT puts us at a tremendous disadvantage for pricing...None of the major oil companies (that I've read about) is requesting to build new refineries...Several have closed in the past few years, and none to replace them...Conservatives cry that we should relax environmental regulations, so that the oil companies can build new refineries, and make more gasoline, but really, it wouldn't matter I believe. WHY would they want to spend HUNDREDs of MILLIONS of $$$ to build a new refinery, which might reduce prices, when they are already selling everything they can make, and a price they like?
We bitch about these prices, but really, when you adjust them for inflation, the $3.00/gallon isn't any worse than the $1.50/gallon in the early 80's, and in fact, it may be easier on the wallet...Consider...in 80-81, I made about $12-$15/hour, and gasoline was about $1.40-$1.60/gal. Nowdays, I make aobut $35./hr, and gas is about $3.00/gal....YES, everything has gone up in price, along with wages...that's why it's called inflation...
Oh how I long for the days of gas wars however...one station would drop it's prices to 22 cents...the guy down the block would drop his to 19 cents, the first guy dropped his to 17 cents...etc...I remember my dad getting gas in the late 50's and early 60's like that...hell, when I started driving, gas was about 30 cents...everywhere. and they pumped it for you...and checked your oil, washed your windshield, etc...nowdays, gas wars seems to be more who can raise their prices the farthest, the fastest...

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: 3chordcharlie

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Rainsford
The thing about a market like the oil market is that, in the short term, demand is inelastic. We need a certain amount of oil to function as a society, that amount is a function of many factors, most of them difficult to change in the short term. Most of us can't simply reduce our consumption at the spur of the moment, and it holds even more true for business users. Most of my oil consumption is through driving to work and various places around town. I can't not drive to work, given the sad lack of public transportation where I live, and I just got a new car, so I'm not going to rush out and buy one with better MPG (although mine is MUCH better than the average tank on the road today in that respect).

Given that, demand for oil is relativly inelastic for short term fluctuations. We all might bitch and moan, but changing our consumption patterns is too difficult in the short term. However, if the currently high prices persist, we'll see a HUGE shift away from our current wasteful oil consumption habits. Europe is a good model for this. If long term prices stay high, it gives the country incentive to develop ways to cut consumption, as the return will be seen over a long period of time. Public transit, always a low point in the vast majority of America, will become much closer to how it looks in Europe. More trains, subways and busses for short and long distance travel. We'll also drive smaller and more efficient vehicles. Again, Europe has SUVs, but they are enough of a rarity that seeing them is kind of a surprise, while in the US you can't go 10 feet without seeing one. I also suspect that the current pattern of suburban growth will reverse itself, as it becomes less economical to live out in the burbs and commute into the city. Of course I'm talking fairly long term here, but if oil prices stay high, we WILL see these things happen. Even longer term, oil alternatives will become much more of a hot button issue. Right now, oil is a good deal, and while alternative sources of energy are a scientificly interesting area, there is less economic incentive to persue them. When the economics make sense, we'll see a MASSIVE push in that field as well.

The idea that our current energy consumption patterns have nothing to do with prices is stupid, high prices will change them because low prices brought them about in the first place. The growth of suburban areas came about mostly because low fuel prices made it easy to live in the pseudo-country and work in the city. The SUV became popular because, although they are hugely wasteful vehicles, the relative costs were low enough to make them economical for many consumers. You can see the reversal aready, try and watch a car commercial today and see how many mention fuel economy. 6 years ago, I don't think that would have been much of a selling point.

Demand is not as inelastic as you make it sound. Consumers could drop fuel consumption overnight by 10-25% if they wanted to. Driving slower is an easy way to save fuel. Combining trips ia another easy way. Using the families most fuel effecient vehicle is yet another simple way. These little things add up.

Sure, there ARE little things you can do that add up, many of which are simpler than the huge changes I was talking about. But in the short term, most people won't do them. People are willing to "ride out" temporary fluctuations in the price of gas, looking at it as one more of life's little hassles. It's only when they are faced with the prospect of higher gas prices for a long time will they even really think about alternatives.

Which means most people are not really struggling with the price of gas. There are easy options to deal with price increase, but it appears most people are choosing to bitch and do nothing.

All of which means 'in the short term the demand for gasoline is inelastic'.

This is why small shortages lead to massive price increases.

/thread

Indeed

That was kind of my point. Over the long term, it will be enough of an annoyance (and possibly worse) that circumstances will change. In the short term, people will do nothing.

 

[Mardeth]

Althought driving economically might sound boring it really isnt. Especially if your driving a stick which in itsellf gives 5MPG more. I usually make a game of it; trying to beat the old record on the same route. "Dont you dare break now woman! Im on a roll!"

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Logically yes, which is what I stated. However, being lesser educated in this area, she disputes that. I am looking for some hard data, if it exists.

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
I gladly pay the increased price

You gladly pay the increased price

/thread

If it was taxed heavier with that money going to other investments, then yes.

People say, now, that the companies are screwing us, I don't believe that.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: 3chordcharlie

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Rainsford
The thing about a market like the oil market is that, in the short term, demand is inelastic. We need a certain amount of oil to function as a society, that amount is a function of many factors, most of them difficult to change in the short term. Most of us can't simply reduce our consumption at the spur of the moment, and it holds even more true for business users. Most of my oil consumption is through driving to work and various places around town. I can't not drive to work, given the sad lack of public transportation where I live, and I just got a new car, so I'm not going to rush out and buy one with better MPG (although mine is MUCH better than the average tank on the road today in that respect).

Given that, demand for oil is relativly inelastic for short term fluctuations. We all might bitch and moan, but changing our consumption patterns is too difficult in the short term. However, if the currently high prices persist, we'll see a HUGE shift away from our current wasteful oil consumption habits. Europe is a good model for this. If long term prices stay high, it gives the country incentive to develop ways to cut consumption, as the return will be seen over a long period of time. Public transit, always a low point in the vast majority of America, will become much closer to how it looks in Europe. More trains, subways and busses for short and long distance travel. We'll also drive smaller and more efficient vehicles. Again, Europe has SUVs, but they are enough of a rarity that seeing them is kind of a surprise, while in the US you can't go 10 feet without seeing one. I also suspect that the current pattern of suburban growth will reverse itself, as it becomes less economical to live out in the burbs and commute into the city. Of course I'm talking fairly long term here, but if oil prices stay high, we WILL see these things happen. Even longer term, oil alternatives will become much more of a hot button issue. Right now, oil is a good deal, and while alternative sources of energy are a scientificly interesting area, there is less economic incentive to persue them. When the economics make sense, we'll see a MASSIVE push in that field as well.

The idea that our current energy consumption patterns have nothing to do with prices is stupid, high prices will change them because low prices brought them about in the first place. The growth of suburban areas came about mostly because low fuel prices made it easy to live in the pseudo-country and work in the city. The SUV became popular because, although they are hugely wasteful vehicles, the relative costs were low enough to make them economical for many consumers. You can see the reversal aready, try and watch a car commercial today and see how many mention fuel economy. 6 years ago, I don't think that would have been much of a selling point.

Demand is not as inelastic as you make it sound. Consumers could drop fuel consumption overnight by 10-25% if they wanted to. Driving slower is an easy way to save fuel. Combining trips ia another easy way. Using the families most fuel effecient vehicle is yet another simple way. These little things add up.

Sure, there ARE little things you can do that add up, many of which are simpler than the huge changes I was talking about. But in the short term, most people won't do them. People are willing to "ride out" temporary fluctuations in the price of gas, looking at it as one more of life's little hassles. It's only when they are faced with the prospect of higher gas prices for a long time will they even really think about alternatives.

Which means most people are not really struggling with the price of gas. There are easy options to deal with price increase, but it appears most people are choosing to bitch and do nothing.

All of which means 'in the short term the demand for gasoline is inelastic'.

This is why small shortages lead to massive price increases.

/thread

Indeed

That was kind of my point. Over the long term, it will be enough of an annoyance (and possibly worse) that circumstances will change. In the short term, people will do nothing.

Many people will treat it as an annoyance, but it does appear gas consumption is starting to decline because of higher prices. There is also a very strong trend of increased sales of fuel effecient cars and decrease sales of fuel innefecient cars when gas prices get high.

Last summer after katrina there was even a decent spike in transit rideship. It is not as inelastic as you make it sound.

 

[CycloWizard]

Originally posted by: charrison
Demand is not as inelastic as you make it sound. Consumers could drop fuel consumption overnight by 10-25% if they wanted to. Driving slower is an easy way to save fuel. Combining trips ia another easy way. Using the families most fuel effecient vehicle is yet another simple way. These little things add up.

I actually had this discussion today when riding with someone. They commented on how slow everyone was driving recently and I said that it was probably because they thought slowing down would improve fuel efficiency. I also said that they're wrong, though it might appear to be true at first. At constant speed, the fuel efficiency will be non-monotonic with speed. The advent of multiple cams and computer-controlled timing has increased the range of speeds that will maximize gas mileage. So, it's possible that in my car, which has dual overhead cams (DOHC), I will get the same gas mileage averaging 60 mph as I would averaging 40 mph.

I also agree with what Engineer said regarding improvements in traffic engineering. I've read several theses from traffic engineers from the 60's (while waiting for paperwork to be filed for my own thesis... it actually took that long for them to file it!). They had the system pretty well figured out for how to maximize traffic throughput with various optimization parameters (e.g. 'crashing the yellow') to allow for safety considerations, minimal changes in speed to hit all the lights, and so on. However, now that we have switched to using weight sensors, all of this research is completely moot. We have taken large steps backwards simply because people are short sighted. I can't drive through more than two lights in St. Louis without having to stop. Given the amount of research that has gone into this area, this is completely inexcusable.

As a result of these things, I almost never drive. My gasoline demand is pretty elastic. The only time I really drive anymore is to and from soccer games. I take the shuttle to work, walk to class, take the Metro (train) everywhere else. As of July 1, the Metro will actually be free for students here and I won't have to drive anywhere at all. The increased usage and availability of mass transit is the real near-term solution that I see to our oil dependency issues. Longer travel (e.g. St. Louis to NYC) is not really currently possible using mass transit unless you have two days to kill on our antiquated rail system. Updating this system is a longer-term solution that I heavily favor.

/rambling post

 

[Steeplerot]

Originally posted by: CycloWizard

As a result of these things, I almost never drive. My gasoline demand is pretty elastic. The only time I really drive anymore is to and from soccer games. I take the shuttle to work, walk to class, take the Metro (train) everywhere else. As of July 1, the Metro will actually be free for students here and I won't have to drive anywhere at all. The increased usage and availability of mass transit is the real near-term solution that I see to our oil dependency issues. Longer travel (e.g. St. Louis to NYC) is not really currently possible using mass transit unless you have two days to kill on our antiquated rail system. Updating this system is a longer-term solution that I heavily favor.

/rambling post

....Wow, I don't think I have I have ever read a post from you that made me have faith.
You are almost free from car-slavery congrats. And yes, we do need to fix amtrak, I just spent 3 days on it a year ago cross country, it's shameful.
I hear bulgaria would be ashamed of our trains, that is really sad.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: charrison
...

Many people will treat it as an annoyance, but it does appear gas consumption is starting to decline because of higher prices. There is also a very strong trend of increased sales of fuel effecient cars and decrease sales of fuel innefecient cars when gas prices get high.

Last summer after katrina there was even a decent spike in transit rideship. It is not as inelastic as you make it sound.

Hmm, you may have some good points there. I guess I'm a little biased by my own experiences, because MY usage is highly inelastic. I pretty much have to drive to work, and don't want to move any time soon, and that's the majority of my usage. I also make a fair amount of money and drive a car that gets close to 28 mpg. I suppose not everyone has the same experience

But I do maintain that the changes we are seeing right now will be a drop in the bucket once things really get rolling away from oil. If prices stay high for a while, I predict SUVs will virtually vanish from the road, that alone will probably cut oil consumption by 30%.

 

[Meuge]

Originally posted by: Rainsford
The thing about a market like the oil market is that, in the short term, demand is inelastic. We need a certain amount of oil to function as a society, that amount is a function of many factors, most of them difficult to change in the short term. Most of us can't simply reduce our consumption at the spur of the moment, and it holds even more true for business users. Most of my oil consumption is through driving to work and various places around town. I can't not drive to work, given the sad lack of public transportation where I live, and I just got a new car, so I'm not going to rush out and buy one with better MPG (although mine is MUCH better than the average tank on the road today in that respect).

Given that, demand for oil is relativly inelastic for short term fluctuations. We all might bitch and moan, but changing our consumption patterns is too difficult in the short term. However, if the currently high prices persist, we'll see a HUGE shift away from our current wasteful oil consumption habits. Europe is a good model for this. If long term prices stay high, it gives the country incentive to develop ways to cut consumption, as the return will be seen over a long period of time. Public transit, always a low point in the vast majority of America, will become much closer to how it looks in Europe. More trains, subways and busses for short and long distance travel. We'll also drive smaller and more efficient vehicles. Again, Europe has SUVs, but they are enough of a rarity that seeing them is kind of a surprise, while in the US you can't go 10 feet without seeing one. I also suspect that the current pattern of suburban growth will reverse itself, as it becomes less economical to live out in the burbs and commute into the city. Of course I'm talking fairly long term here, but if oil prices stay high, we WILL see these things happen. Even longer term, oil alternatives will become much more of a hot button issue. Right now, oil is a good deal, and while alternative sources of energy are a scientificly interesting area, there is less economic incentive to persue them. When the economics make sense, we'll see a MASSIVE push in that field as well.

The idea that our current energy consumption patterns have nothing to do with prices is stupid, high prices will change them because low prices brought them about in the first place. The growth of suburban areas came about mostly because low fuel prices made it easy to live in the pseudo-country and work in the city. The SUV became popular because, although they are hugely wasteful vehicles, the relative costs were low enough to make them economical for many consumers. You can see the reversal aready, try and watch a car commercial today and see how many mention fuel economy. 6 years ago, I don't think that would have been much of a selling point.

I agree with the logic, just not with your take on what constitutes short and long-term. I believe that if there was a tax incentive to purchase hybrid vehicles, or conventional gas vehicles with very high MPG, and tax dis-incentives (besides high gas prices) to having huge wasteful cars and SUVs, we'd see a cardinal shift within 5 years.

I figure, a $1000/year tax incentive, and $1000-2000 penalty sound about right. The figures could be adjusted based on the projected money pool from tax penalties.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: charrison
...

Many people will treat it as an annoyance, but it does appear gas consumption is starting to decline because of higher prices. There is also a very strong trend of increased sales of fuel effecient cars and decrease sales of fuel innefecient cars when gas prices get high.

Last summer after katrina there was even a decent spike in transit rideship. It is not as inelastic as you make it sound.

Hmm, you may have some good points there. I guess I'm a little biased by my own experiences, because MY usage is highly inelastic. I pretty much have to drive to work, and don't want to move any time soon, and that's the majority of my usage. I also make a fair amount of money and drive a car that gets close to 28 mpg. I suppose not everyone has the same experience

But I do maintain that the changes we are seeing right now will be a drop in the bucket once things really get rolling away from oil. If prices stay high for a while, I predict SUVs will virtually vanish from the road, that alone will probably cut oil consumption by 30%.

Well my experence is we have 2 cars. One gets much better MPG than the other. We do have an easy option to save fuel when we dont need the capacity of the larger vehicle.

And I got news news for you, big vehicles are not going to go away. They are just going to get more effecient as there will always be a need for large family/work vehicles. Ford is supposed to introduce a hydralic hybrid in its Fseries trucks in the next year or two. This is supposed to bring it up to around 30mpg. Big vehicles are always going to be around.

 

[desy]

Thats the beauty of a two car family you can have fuel effecient and the 'toy' or hauler when you need it.
And really instead of more effcient small cars the effort and energy should be put into the big stuff first cause
A they aren't going away and
B squeezing an xtra mile or two out of those has a much bigger impact than a mile or two out of a small car.

 

[halik]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Rainsford
The thing about a market like the oil market is that, in the short term, demand is inelastic. We need a certain amount of oil to function as a society, that amount is a function of many factors, most of them difficult to change in the short term. Most of us can't simply reduce our consumption at the spur of the moment, and it holds even more true for business users. Most of my oil consumption is through driving to work and various places around town. I can't not drive to work, given the sad lack of public transportation where I live, and I just got a new car, so I'm not going to rush out and buy one with better MPG (although mine is MUCH better than the average tank on the road today in that respect).

Given that, demand for oil is relativly inelastic for short term fluctuations. We all might bitch and moan, but changing our consumption patterns is too difficult in the short term. However, if the currently high prices persist, we'll see a HUGE shift away from our current wasteful oil consumption habits. Europe is a good model for this. If long term prices stay high, it gives the country incentive to develop ways to cut consumption, as the return will be seen over a long period of time. Public transit, always a low point in the vast majority of America, will become much closer to how it looks in Europe. More trains, subways and busses for short and long distance travel. We'll also drive smaller and more efficient vehicles. Again, Europe has SUVs, but they are enough of a rarity that seeing them is kind of a surprise, while in the US you can't go 10 feet without seeing one. I also suspect that the current pattern of suburban growth will reverse itself, as it becomes less economical to live out in the burbs and commute into the city. Of course I'm talking fairly long term here, but if oil prices stay high, we WILL see these things happen. Even longer term, oil alternatives will become much more of a hot button issue. Right now, oil is a good deal, and while alternative sources of energy are a scientificly interesting area, there is less economic incentive to persue them. When the economics make sense, we'll see a MASSIVE push in that field as well.

The idea that our current energy consumption patterns have nothing to do with prices is stupid, high prices will change them because low prices brought them about in the first place. The growth of suburban areas came about mostly because low fuel prices made it easy to live in the pseudo-country and work in the city. The SUV became popular because, although they are hugely wasteful vehicles, the relative costs were low enough to make them economical for many consumers. You can see the reversal aready, try and watch a car commercial today and see how many mention fuel economy. 6 years ago, I don't think that would have been much of a selling point.

Demand is not as inelastic as you make it sound. Consumers could drop fuel consumption overnight by 10-25% if they wanted to. Driving slower is an easy way to save fuel. Combining trips ia another easy way. Using the families most fuel effecient vehicle is yet another simple way. These little things add up.

Bullshit,
all economic papers i've read make out the oil demand to be elestic only in the mid to long run (5-10 years). Short term price changes have insignificant effect on the demand.

Here's a couple:
one
two (pdf)

This is also the reason why taxing oil companies would be asinine. With price-inelastic consumption, most of the tax indidence would fall on consumers.

 

[dullard]

I didn't read the whole thread, but I didn't see anyone answer the question either.

Historical MPG
1955: 16.1
1960: 16.1
1970: 15.2
1973: 13.0
1975: 15.9

Recent MPG data
Its a long PDF and they are slow, so you might want to Save As, rather than click on the file directly.

In the later file, they separate data into total fleet and just passenger cars. I'll post the total fleet data (since that is the same as what was posted for historical data).
1980: 23.1
1985: 25.4
1987: 26.2
1990: 25.4
1995: 24.9
2000: 24.8
2005: 25.2

Peak year was 1987 at 27.2 MPG, but average MPG really hasn't changed since 1981 much at all. Note: the CAFE standard first hit the maximum of 27.5 MPG in 1985 (which explains the peak right there). Then the standard decreased a bit and went back up to 27.5 where it has remained. Basically, the flatness in the graph is since standards have been flat and US consumers don't want better than that minimum standard.

Back to your argument with your mom: MPG did go down, bottoming in 1973. Then it went up and leveled off by 1981. We would slowly become more efficient with higher gas prices. But that will take years. We could instead just mandate the vehicles to be higher MPG.

A bigger impact is SEMI-truck gas regulation (ie a diesel tax and/or large truck fuel standards) and electricity regulation (since much of it comes from oil). That'll do more good than a few people changing from SUVs to hybrids.