Hillary?s Math Problem

[13Gigatons]

http://www.newsweek.com/id/118240/output/print

Hillary Clinton may be poised for a big night tonight, with wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Clinton aides say this will be the beginning of her comeback against Barack Obama. There's only one problem with this analysis: they can't count.

I'm no good at math either, but with the help of Slate?s Delegate Calculator I've scoped out the rest of the primaries, and even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don't look good for Clinton. In order to show how deep a hole she's in, I've given her the benefit of the doubt every week for the rest of the primaries.

Slate Delegate Calculator: http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

 

[compuwiz1]

The real problem is that that McCain might actually get elected. (Too bush like for me)

 

[M0RPH]

It's true that Clinton may not be able to catch Obama in the delegate count, even including superdelegates. However, what is also true is that Obama is not going to be able to achieve the 2,025 delegate count that is required to win the nomination. So neither candidate is going to be able to win the nomination just based on delegates.

If it comes down to a brokered convention, with the delegate count being so close it's not going to be the only consideration in picking the candidate. There will be a serious argument to be made that Clinton is the better candidate, since she has won most of the real primaries in big, important states. She could even end up winning the overrall popular vote in the end, especially if Florida and Michigan end up revoting.

 

[Phokus]

Hillary will gladly destroy the Democratic party and this country to save face. It doesn't matter that she has almost no chance of winning.

 

[techs]

While I am a Hillary supporter, but if Obama wins the elected delegates and the total popular vote I think he should get the nomination.
If neither candidate wins both, then I think the Supers should vote their conscience.
The only exeption would be if one or the other candidate had something happpen between now and the convention, like a big scandal. Then the Supers can overlook the votes since the scandal happened after the primaries.

 

[ja1484]

Fucking Hillary.

Does she not realize getting nominated is asking for another McGovern/Mondale like burying of the Democratic party?

The one presidential election the Dems can't lose, and they try their hardest for political suicide. Typical.

 

[Throckmorton]

Originally posted by: ja1484

Fucking Hillary.

Does she not realize getting nominated is asking for another McGovern/Mondale like burying of the Democratic party?

The one presidential election the Dems can't lose, and they try their hardest for political suicide. Typical.

I don't understand why Hillary voters don't realize that there is a reason Rush Limbaugh calls on his listeners to vote for her

 

[Lemon law]

A deadlocked convention is unlikely. Edwards simply did not win many delegates when we had what amounted to a three person race, meaning either of Hillary is likely to get a majority. Basically when you break something into exactly two pieces, only one piece will be greater than half.

Subtract out the roughly 20% super delegates, and the numbers look very different. On a votes alone basis, its takes 5/8 of 80% to get to 50%. And Hillary and Obama are too evenly matched to permit a 62.5 v. 37.5 split.

 

[13Gigatons]

I still think that Obama is a better bet in the General Election since Hillary has such high negatives.

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
A deadlocked convention is unlikely. Edwards simply did not win many delegates when we had what amounted to a three person race, meaning either of Hillary is likely to get a majority. Basically when you break something into exactly two pieces, only one piece will be greater than half.

Subtract out the roughly 20% super delegates, and the numbers look very different. On a votes alone basis, its takes 5/8 of 80% to get to 50%. And Hillary and Obama are too evenly matched to permit a 62.5 v. 37.5 split.

John Edwards only has 26 delegates to give away.

 

[MadRat]

Guam will probably be the delegations that lock up the bid for Obama. Can you imagine that, a territory outside the continental U.S. is the key to victory?

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: MadRat
Guam will probably be the delegations that lock up the bid for Obama. Can you imagine that, a territory outside the continental U.S. is the key to victory?

Better them than DC or PR

 

[Starbuck1975]

Hillary's campaign will attempt to spin last night as a clear mandate for her candidacy.

Obama still matches better against McCain, and still has an overall national lead against Hillary among Democrats.

The only thing accomplished last night is that the Democrats are now in jeopardy of losing the White House. McCain now has some space to craft his strategy and unite the Republican Party...one step further, if Hillary wins the nomination, he should full court press to attract the independents and young voters that supported Obama, who will be quite angry and disenfranchised over a Hillary nomination...especially considering that a Hillary nomination at this point will require some serious political maneuvering that mirror the criticisms against the Bush Administration

The best scenario for the Democrats was for Hillary to lose her Ohio/Texas firewall...that did not happen...apparently a SNL appearance and a fear mongering campaign ad is what American voters respond to.

Statistically, Hillary cannot overcome Obama in delegates before the DNC...Obama will not get his knock out blow before the DNC at this point.

So we are looking at a brokered convention...with Florida, Michigan and the superdelegates back at center stage.

A joint Obama/Hillary ticket is a mistake at this point...there is too much bad blood between the campaigns...Hillary will never settle for the co-pilot seat, and Obama's message of change is essentially lost if he falls to the pressure of losing the nomination to Party politics, and chooses to toe the line.

Last night was the worst possible scenario for the Democrats.

Hillary got her essential victory...but it will be Pyrrhic in nature.

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
Hillary's campaign will attempt to spin last night as a clear mandate for her candidacy.

Obama still matches better against McCain, and still has an overall national lead against Hillary among Democrats.

The only thing accomplished last night is that the Democrats are now in jeopardy of losing the White House. McCain now has some space to craft his strategy and unite the Republican Party...one step further, if Hillary wins the nomination, he should full court press to attract the independents and young voters that supported Obama, who will be quite angry and disenfranchised over a Hillary nomination...especially considering that a Hillary nomination at this point will require some serious political maneuvering that mirror the criticisms against the Bush Administration

The best scenario for the Democrats was for Hillary to lose her Ohio/Texas firewall...that did not happen...apparently a SNL appearance and a fear mongering campaign ad is what American voters respond to.

Statistically, Hillary cannot overcome Obama in delegates before the DNC...Obama will not get his knock out blow before the DNC at this point.

So we are looking at a brokered convention...with Florida, Michigan and the superdelegates back at center stage.

A joint Obama/Hillary ticket is a mistake at this point...there is too much bad blood between the campaigns...Hillary will never settle for the co-pilot seat, and Obama's message of change is essentially lost if he falls to the pressure of losing the nomination to Party politics, and chooses to toe the line.

Last night was the worst possible scenario for the Democrats.

Hillary got her essential victory...but it will be Pyrrhic in nature.

:thumbsup:

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
The best scenario for the Democrats was for Hillary to lose her Ohio/Texas firewall...that did not happen...apparently a SNL appearance and a fear mongering campaign ad is what American voters respond to.

If you believe that, that Hillary can beat the Obama juggernaut with one ad and a joke skit on SNL, how can you think he'd stand a chance agains the full republican general election onslaught?

Unfortunately you're right. American's are easily swayed by dirty politics. If Obama cannot handle the ringing phone now, he's going to get massacred when the REAL fight starts. Even if you hate hillary, you should be thanking her for providing some competition so Obama can at least get some practice in what he'll face should he be the nom.

 

[StageLeft]

People said she had to win large, but DAMN, if she wins 60% to 40% on all of the remaining states, she's STILL a tiny bit behind! Unless video of obama comes out with him a baby killer, that won't happen. He gets the pledged and therefore the nomination. The supers if they side with her and then the dems lose would be so shamed it would be beyond comprehension.

 

[Starbuck1975]

If you believe that, that Hillary can beat the Obama juggernaut with one ad and a joke skit on SNL, how can you think he'd stand a chance agains the full republican general election onslaught?

Well the nomination and the General Election are two different monsters.

Obama's campaign has not gone negative, hoping to contain the damage either candidate will cause to the other, thereby jeopardizing the General Election.

Clinton has gone scorched Earth, so now Obama must follow to win the nomination.

Unfortunately you're right. American's are easily swayed by dirty politics. If Obama cannot handle the ringing phone now, he's going to get massacred when the REAL fight starts. Even if you hate hillary, you should be thanking her for providing some competition so Obama can at least get some practice in what he'll face should he be the nom.

Yes, perhaps the Hillary shenanigans will further test Obama...but Democrats should have some concern that they are "testing" their own.

That Obama managed to overcome Hillary's all but secured nomination is test enough I would counter.

 

[Mxylplyx]

Originally posted by: Throckmorton

Originally posted by: ja1484

Fucking Hillary.

Does she not realize getting nominated is asking for another McGovern/Mondale like burying of the Democratic party?

The one presidential election the Dems can't lose, and they try their hardest for political suicide. Typical.

I don't understand why Hillary voters don't realize that there is a reason Rush Limbaugh calls on his listeners to vote for her

Quite true. I'd vote for Obama over McCain, and McCain over Hillary, and I voted for Bush twice. Hillary has never sat right with me.

 

[Dari]

Hillary Clinton is like a fucking roach. You can't get rid of her.

EDIT: I really hope Obama doesn't go negative.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: Dari
Hillary Clinton is like a fucking roach. You can't get rid of her.

EDIT: I really hope Obama doesn't go negative.

Who do you want answering the phone in the White House at 3AM? :laugh:

Unbelievable that ad was so effective. I expect we'll see her go negative similarly in many similar ads in the coming weeks.

 

[Phokus]

Originally posted by: Dari
Hillary Clinton is like a fucking roach. You can't get rid of her.

EDIT: I really hope Obama doesn't go negative.

Unfortunately, he might have to.

Maybe the DNC can grow a pair and tell her to F off. There's almost no mathematical chance that she can win the nomination. The only thing she's doing is screwing over Barack and giving McCain ammunition to destroy him once the general election rolls around.