Hezzbollah now claims its rockets can reach all of Israel

[Lemon law]

This just in from Yahoo news---from a speech given by Hezbllah leader Nasarella.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/200...zWrLDYQlOfxZDCsmys0NUE

I can't vouch for the accuracy of the claim--but if true--means that Israel will have to occupy
more and more territory for a buffer zone, or be vulnerable to terrorist attack, or finally be willing to negotiate in good faith to defuse the Arab grievances.

In the hot ranging debates of last summer, I predicted that it was almost inevitable that the Arab Counter to Israeli military hegemony would be to invest in rockets with longer ranges.
When more accurate guidance systems and possibly more deadly warheads are added, its going to be something that changes the entire mid-east balance--and very possibly totally change the existing conventional wisdoms that drive the hatreds at the same time the hatreds continue to build long past the safety zone.

I certainly take no joy in making a correct prediction, I deny anything I said caused the prediction to come true, and now have to point out that this could finally drive the root problems toward a resolution or cause a general mid-east meltdown.

But the conventional wisdom that has kept an uneasy peace may be now be a concept as obsolete as a dodo.

 

[Aimster]

Hezbollah claimed this in 2003.
They actually claimed they could reach the capital of Israel and had 15,000 rockets.

They won't fire them unless Israel invades. If Israel doesn't invade then Israel doesn't get bombed with rockets.


Plus Egypt has more scuds than any nation in the Middle East. Scuds are far more deadly than Hezbollah rockets. Egypt's inventory of rockets and missiles is so vast that it would seriously damage the infrastructure of Israel. However, the same thing applies with Egypt. Don't attack them and their rockets won't come raining down.

Same thing with Israel, don't invade them and you won't get a nuke missile pointed your way.

 

[RichardE]

Originally posted by: Aimster
Hezbollah claimed this in 2003.
They actually claimed they could reach the capital of Israel and had 15,000 rockets.

They won't fire them unless Israel invades. If Israel doesn't invade then Israel doesn't get bombed with rockets.


Plus Egypt has more scuds than any nation in the Middle East. Scuds are far more deadly than Hezbollah rockets. Egypt's inventory of rockets and missiles is so vast that it would seriously damage the infrastructure of Israel. However, the same thing applies with Egypt. Don't attack them and their rockets won't come raining down.

Same thing with Israel, don't invade them and you won't get a nuke missile pointed your way.

MAD works =)

 

[Lemon law]

I actually hope your take on the matter is correct Aimster---but your possible error may be to assume this is a State vs. another State mutual assured destruction type calculus operating. When I am looking at the tea leaves and see a totally different tactic now being made possible.

Namely that these missiles will become the property of various stateless terrorist groups---who will smuggle them into various Arab States despite the best efforts of these Arab States to prevent the smuggling---and then launch them at Israel.

Israel naturally will blame these Arab States---the Arab States will make a genuine effort to prevent the smuggling---but it will happen anyway---and eventually the Arab States and Israel will end up going at each other to the delight of the Stateless terrorists. And as the experience of Lebanon shows---its not going to make Arab friends if Israel lashes out.

But last summer the range of these terrorist rockets was rather short---and Western Lebanon was about the only place they could be launched from and still get some short distance into Israel. And I find it hard to believe a single year could see even a doubling of range but I have no reliable intel to go on---just the possibly inflated claim of Hezbollah. But I have little doubts that eventually that added range will come---and the amount of land that will become potential launch points will expand beyond all possible control. And could soon be coming at Israel from nearly all directions---and I find it hard to conceive of an effective Israeli counter tactic once the range gets sufficiently long.

If my read of the tea leaves is correct and the technology is added--its going to change the conventional wisdoms and force changes in everyone's thinking is my only thread thesis.

 

[The Green Bean]

Originally posted by: Aimster

Same thing with Israel, don't invade them and you won't get a nuke missile pointed your way.

you mean we should let them make illegal incursions into Gaza at will and murder innocents and do nothing? If America stopped its biased blind support of Israel, half the countries of the world would support an invasion.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Aimster
Hezbollah claimed this in 2003.
They actually claimed they could reach the capital of Israel and had 15,000 rockets.

They won't fire them unless Israel invades. If Israel doesn't invade then Israel doesn't get bombed with rockets.


Plus Egypt has more scuds than any nation in the Middle East. Scuds are far more deadly than Hezbollah rockets. Egypt's inventory of rockets and missiles is so vast that it would seriously damage the infrastructure of Israel. However, the same thing applies with Egypt. Don't attack them and their rockets won't come raining down.

Same thing with Israel, don't invade them and you won't get a nuke missile pointed your way.

Hezbollah doesn't represent the state, though, and so they in comparison have nothing to lose. If they pummel israel, israel's response is what? They were impotent last year. Without nuking half the countryside or "coercing" lebanon to really step it up, nothing will be done, and people don't respond well to coercion...more like plead with Iran to help out and get Israel to stop and then plead with Egypt and everyone else. And then you've got a nice war going on. Thankfully, only Israel has nukes now so if they could avoid using them, a war could potentially not get too overblown.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: Aimster
Hezbollah claimed this in 2003.
They actually claimed they could reach the capital of Israel and had 15,000 rockets.

They won't fire them unless Israel invades. If Israel doesn't invade then Israel doesn't get bombed with rockets.

The problem is that Hezbollah either will not (as previously demonstrated) keep their promise, or wink and allow some other party to shoot off a rocket or two while professing their innocence.

To have the weapon is one thing; to act irresponsible with it is another.

Both sides made mistakes last year - hopefully Hezbollah will have learned from theirs that way Israel does not have to demonstrate that they learned from theirs.

The next time a serious conflict breaks out on the northern border, Syria may get dragged into it kicking and screaming.

 

[Moonbeam]

The day is coming via technology when a smart and disturbed teenager science student will figure out at way to kill all life on earth. How are we going to fight terrorism and insure universal mental health then? Humanity, with its systemic competition, is headed for extinction. We will all need to love life or we will all die. But you get yours now. No need to think to hard or seriously. Maybe you can die before the sh!t hits the fan.

 

[Aimster]

Read the history of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel leading up to the Invasion of Lebanon.

All was military fighting. No civilian fighting

It doesn't matter if you agree with me or not, The people of Israeli overwhelmingly disagreed with the conflict in Lebanon. It brought civilians into the mix where before civilians were left out.

The only positive thing about the war is that now it seems the border clashes have dramatically slowed down. The two sides will now ignore each other and whoever makes the next move will be to blame whereas before both sides kept going at it and were both to blame.

 

[Sinsear]

Originally posted by: Aimster
Read the history of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel leading up to the Invasion of Lebanon.

All was military fighting. No civilian fighting

It doesn't matter if you agree with me or not, The people of Israeli overwhelmingly disagreed with the conflict in Lebanon. It brought civilians into the mix where before civilians were left out.

The only positive thing about the war is that now it seems the border clashes have dramatically slowed down. The two sides will now ignore each other and whoever makes the next move will be to blame whereas before both sides kept going at it and were both to blame.

Excuse me, but Hezbollah is not the military. Lebanon has its own Army. Hezbollah, which is a political party has a militant, terrorist wing.

 

[Sinsear]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
The day is coming via technology when a smart and disturbed teenager science student will figure out at way to kill all life on earth. How are we going to fight terrorism and insure universal mental health then? Humanity, with its systemic competition, is headed for extinction. We will all need to love life or we will all die. But you get yours now. No need to think to hard or seriously. Maybe you can die before the sh!t hits the fan.

Will he have an army of 12 Monkeys?

 

[Aimster]

Originally posted by: Sinsear

Originally posted by: Aimster
Read the history of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel leading up to the Invasion of Lebanon.

All was military fighting. No civilian fighting

It doesn't matter if you agree with me or not, The people of Israeli overwhelmingly disagreed with the conflict in Lebanon. It brought civilians into the mix where before civilians were left out.

The only positive thing about the war is that now it seems the border clashes have dramatically slowed down. The two sides will now ignore each other and whoever makes the next move will be to blame whereas before both sides kept going at it and were both to blame.

Excuse me, but Hezbollah is not the military. Lebanon has its own Army. Hezbollah, which is a political party has a militant, terrorist wing.

Hezbollah was created why?
To kick Israel out of Lebanon.

Their purpose is to defend Southern Lebanon from an invasion.
You want Lebanon to get an army? give them $billions to build one. Then Hezbollah has no purpose. Lebanon's army has no chance to defend against an invasion from anyone.

 

[Lemon law]

For anyone who understand tactics---and as a chess player I take certain pride in understanding tactics and counter tactics---the past is not always a guide to the future.
because as the game advances--and when a tactic becomes viable---when it was not before---it changes the entire chess game only if one side or the other side opts to use
the then available tactic---but it just takes one side to use the tactic.

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
This just in from Yahoo news---from a speech given by Hezbllah leader Nasarella.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/200...zWrLDYQlOfxZDCsmys0NUE

I can't vouch for the accuracy of the claim--but if true--means that Israel will have to occupy
more and more territory for a buffer zone, or be vulnerable to terrorist attack, or finally be willing to negotiate in good faith to defuse the Arab grievances.

-snip-.

I agree in general with your assessment. Advances in technology are inevitable, including those in weaponry. Therefore, more and more "people" will gain the ability to "reach out and touch" Israel in a substantial way. So yes, the current paradigm will become as "obsolete as a dodo bird".

Fern

 

[OutHouse]

Originally posted by: The Green Bean

Originally posted by: Aimster

Same thing with Israel, don't invade them and you won't get a nuke missile pointed your way.

you mean we should let them make illegal incursions into Gaza at will and murder innocents and do nothing? If America stopped its biased blind support of Israel, half the countries of the world would support an invasion.

is this what they tell you in Pakistan?

 

[palehorse]

Originally posted by: The Green Bean

Originally posted by: Aimster

Same thing with Israel, don't invade them and you won't get a nuke missile pointed your way.

you mean we should let them make illegal incursions into Gaza at will and murder innocents and do nothing? If America stopped its biased blind support of Israel, half the countries of the world would support an invasion.

Who is "we" Green Bean?

Where are you from exactly?

Do you desire to see Israel destroyed?

 

[Aimster]

Nobody is going to invade Israel for the Palestinians.

Nobody cares for them.

 

[The Green Bean]

Originally posted by: Citrix

Originally posted by: The Green Bean

Originally posted by: Aimster

Same thing with Israel, don't invade them and you won't get a nuke missile pointed your way.

you mean we should let them make illegal incursions into Gaza at will and murder innocents and do nothing? If America stopped its biased blind support of Israel, half the countries of the world would support an invasion.

is this what they tell you in Pakistan?

That's what I hear from American News channels.

 

[The Green Bean]

Originally posted by: palehorse74

Originally posted by: The Green Bean

Originally posted by: Aimster

Same thing with Israel, don't invade them and you won't get a nuke missile pointed your way.

you mean we should let them make illegal incursions into Gaza at will and murder innocents and do nothing? If America stopped its biased blind support of Israel, half the countries of the world would support an invasion.

Who is "we" Green Bean?

Where are you from exactly?

Do you desire to see Israel destroyed?

I consider myself to be a human citizen above all. I'm from Karachi, Pakistan. I do not want any loss of life and therefore Israel needs a regime change. A regime that does not illegally cross into Gaza and the West Bank, start illegal settlements, make illegal walls, murder innocents, and abduct people at will. In other words, a regime that can live at peace with its neighbors.

 

[The Green Bean]

Originally posted by: Aimster
Nobody is going to invade Israel for the Palestinians.

Nobody cares for them.

I'll rephrase that. Nobody in power cares for them.

 

[palehorse]

Originally posted by: The Green Bean

Originally posted by: palehorse74

Originally posted by: The Green Bean

Originally posted by: Aimster

Same thing with Israel, don't invade them and you won't get a nuke missile pointed your way.

you mean we should let them make illegal incursions into Gaza at will and murder innocents and do nothing? If America stopped its biased blind support of Israel, half the countries of the world would support an invasion.

Who is "we" Green Bean?

Where are you from exactly?

Do you desire to see Israel destroyed?

I consider myself to be a human citizen above all. I'm from Karachi, Pakistan. I do not want any loss of life and therefore Israel needs a regime change. A regime that does not illegally cross into Gaza and the West Bank, start illegal settlements, make illegal walls, murder innocents, and abduct people at will. In other words, a regime that can live at peace with its neighbors.

All of that sounds swell, but can you please get YOUR Al Qaeda neighbors in NW Pakistan to stop doing the same thing in Afghanistan? And while your at it, please put a stop to the Palestinians who enjoy blowing up buses full of children and tourists.

Then we can talk about the "ebul jews" all day long.

Sound good?

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Topic Title: Hezzbollah now claims its rockets can reach all of Israel

Topic Summary: Something I predicted last summer increases dangers.

So?

They are their own country and have their own weapons so what is the point or problem???

 

[Narmer]

Just as the French gave Israel nuclear technology, the Arabs/Persians should get nuclear technology as well. This should even the playing field and give peace a chance.

 

[Jaskalas]

Topic Title: Hezzbollah now claims its rockets can reach all of Israel

I would like to thank the UN for providing cover and support to Hezbollah, giving them this opportunity to rearm and build up new fortifications. A job well done!

 

[palehorse]

Originally posted by: Narmer
Just as the French gave Israel nuclear technology, the Arabs/Persians should get nuclear technology as well. This should even the playing field and give peace a chance.

lol.. oh boy. "Give them nukes so that we can finally have peace"

that's classic! what a frickin clown...