[Hexus]Nvidia pulls away from AMD in graphics card market share

[ocre]

How can anyone downplay the situation.


The gm204 was not even available for 99% of Q3. Nvidia Market share is higher than its ever been. Acting like this is a normal cycle is baffling. It is utterly terrible.

The gm204 has yet to show its impact, that will be in Q4!!!!

I dont care which side you are on, this is alarming. No spin can take that away.

And read hawk, your data does not go against the conroe/maxwell comparison.

The entire Maxwell line up has yet to launch and there was lower sku conroe chips that was not any faster than AMDs athlon X2s. You have one in your charts. But it had insanely low power consumption.

In your charts, the gm204 could fit right where the E6600 is.... when you crunch the numbers.

Big maxwell could come in and take the x6800 slot. You never know.

I am not saying that it will play out that. We currently cannot make such a call. Its way to premature for that. So it is still to be determined if Maxwell ends up being Nvidia's Conroe.

Its just this marketshare trend is scary, downplaying it is not useful. It is true that Nvidia and AMD bounce up and down and usually there is products behind it. But the bouncing hasnt been even, Nvidia is gaining control of the ball. The trend is there. And the spike from Q2 to Q3 is the largest gain ever. There is no chance the GM204 could have impacted this spike. It came in the 780ti vs 290x, Titan Z vs 295 x2, 780 vs 290, 7670 vs 280x, 760 vs r9 285 era.
The gm204 has yet to show any impact and i seriously, seriously doubt that the out of stock issues was just a ploy. The gm204 looks to be selling very very well.

In q3, i didnt realize a huge sway towards nvidia was occurring. It seemed quite actually, other than tonga launching. But since the gm204, the Internets blew up. An obvious, massive sway towards nvidia so big you would have to be blind not to see it.

Thats the even scarier part

 

[chimaxi83]

Is it even possible for Fiji to be the last cycle from AMD? I know Nvidia cheerleaders would love nothing more, but that would effectively make Nvidia a monopoly. Could that even happen?

 

[AnandThenMan]

Its just this marketshare trend is scary, downplaying it is not useful.

Get hyped up about it or getting upset is not useful either, in fact it doesn't make any difference. What matter is what people buy and the market has spoken.

Is it even possible for Fiji to be the last cycle from AMD? I know Nvidia cheerleaders would love nothing more, but that would effectively make Nvidia a monopoly. Could that even happen?

Of course, we are not far off from an Nvidia monopoly in dGPUs right now.

 

[Abwx]

There's no way you actually believe this. Nvidia had a massive misstep with Fermi and easily recovered, no way Nvidia makes another Fermi like blunder. Put another way, did YOU buy an AMD card when Fermi was a no show? No you didn't you waited and in fact bought a Fermi GPU IIRC.

This is exactly the reason AMD never gains any real traction, buying habits like the above.

Worse, 30bn losses for consumers because of willfully sold faulty chips, and they got away with it with people still saying that Nvidia means quality when no other brand in the electronic market has a record of such bad quality...
Marketing, viral or not, seems efficient.

 

[Abwx]

How can anyone downplay the situation.
The gm204 was not even available for 99% of Q3.

For consumers but OEMs got it long before, for the whole of Q3, you dont manufacture cards overnight.

 

[AnandThenMan]

Sad state for the GPU market for sure, although I'm sure Nvidia is giddy about it. Unless AMD gets bought out or pulls off a miracle we are going to see the same stale situation that is occurring on the CPU side.

 

[metalliax]

How can anyone downplay the situation.


The gm204 was not even available for 99% of Q3. Nvidia Market share is higher than its ever been. Acting like this is a normal cycle is baffling. It is utterly terrible.

The gm204 has yet to show its impact, that will be in Q4!!!!

Don't these reports focus on what is shipped to stores, and not what consumers purchased? Most of the GM204 orders occurred in September. This would definitely be a big part of the Q3 #.

 

[Rvenger]

It was also before AMD (or AMD AIBs however you want to call it) reacted with the price cuts. The playing field will level out but AMD needs to be more aggressive with product releases. Release the 380x first, then 390X, then 390 or what ever. That's exactly what NVidia does because they know exactly that the enthusiasts who bought the 970 and 980, will also buy the Big Maxwell cores once they are released, they double their profits.

Then you have people like me that just buys everything.

 

[RussianSensation]

To a degree yes, but AMD rarely has the actual lead (50%+) share so Nvidia is almost always in the lead its just a matter of how much.

Exactly. There was an article stating that 89% of all new iPhone 6 purchases came from previous iPhone users, with only 6% coming from Android users switching. Now if we think about the massive fraction of NV loyal users who will upgrade like clock work to the next NV card, that's most of NV's 60% overall market share automatically. The major gains is when AMD users leave to buy NV. The loyal NV userbase will ensure NV is at 55-60% overall while the extra 5-15% gains will come from AMD users switching. When AMD brings out better products, these 5-15% could switch back but the core 60% of the market stay with NV.

---

I strongly disagree that AMD needs to focus on the $1000 performance crown. It's a waste of time. Whenever AMD had the performance crown with 5870, 7970Ghz, 6990, 7990 or 295X2, it did nothing for them materially. Loyal NV users will buy NV and NV's users are extremely loyal in the $500+ level. You will spend an exorbitant amount of money trying to get maybe 20-30% of the entire 5% of high-end dGPU sector. That's a total waste of effort and resources for a small firm like AMD. They need to go after easier to win markets such as mobile dGPU $50-300 market. NV won those markets by default for the last 3 years since AMD doesn't show up at all. How do you expect to compete against 840/850/860M and 970M when you have no products to show?

When AMD wins designs in laptops, they usually pair a 7970M/8970M style card with some anemic AMD CPU. People don't want those laptops. Even if 390M is 100X faster than 980M, people will NOT buy a gaming laptop with a slow AMD cpu that makes everything CPU limited.

 

[Flapdrol1337]

There's no way you actually believe this. Nvidia had a massive misstep with Fermi and easily recovered, no way Nvidia makes another Fermi like blunder. Put another way, did YOU buy an AMD card when Fermi was a no show? No you didn't you waited and in fact bought a Fermi GPU IIRC.

This is exactly the reason AMD never gains any real traction, buying habits like the above.

Hey, enough people bought an AMD gpu when fermi was a no show. The 5850 launched at a nice price, but due to high demand prices actually went up.

 

[AnandThenMan]

Hey, enough people bought an AMD gpu when fermi was a no show.

Not enough people continued to buy AMD, the obvious point here.

 

[Jaydip]

Exactly. There was an article stating that 89% of all new iPhone 6 purchases came from previous iPhone users, with only 6% coming from Android users switching. Now if we think about the massive fraction of NV loyal users who will upgrade like clock work to the next NV card, that's most of NV's 60% overall market share automatically. The major gains is when AMD users leave to buy NV. The loyal NV userbase will ensure NV is at 55-60% overall while the extra 5-15% gains will come from AMD users switching. When AMD brings out better products, these 5-15% could switch back but the core 60% of the market stay with NV.

---

I strongly disagree that AMD needs to focus on the $1000 performance crown. It's a waste of time. Whenever AMD had the performance crown with 5870, 7970Ghz, 6990, 7990 or 295X2, it did nothing for them materially. Loyal NV users will buy NV and NV's users are extremely loyal in the $500+ level. You will spend an exorbitant amount of money trying to get maybe 20-30% of the entire 5% of high-end dGPU sector. That's a total waste of effort and resources for a small firm like AMD. They need to go after easier to win markets such as mobile dGPU $50-300 market. NV won those markets by default for the last 3 years since AMD doesn't show up at all. How do you expect to compete against 840/850/860M and 970M when you have no products to show?

When AMD wins designs in laptops, they usually pair a 7970M/8970M style card with some anemic AMD CPU. People don't want those laptops. Even if 390M is 100X faster than 980M, people will NOT buy a gaming laptop with a slow AMD cpu that makes everything CPU limited.

And I strongly disagree with that one Rs, you don't build you brand image selling $300 gpus.When AMD introduced 5870 I did buy one but I had to RMA that crap 3 times(XFX 5870 black edition), nothing to do with AMD but it left me in a very bitter mindstate and afterwards I never ever bought a AMD gpu again. Otoh my brother is a very loyal AMD fan and enjoying his Tri 290X immensely.So it boils down to your own prejudices, if something works for you you typically stick with them even if they are a bit expensive.

 

[Red Hawk]

So how does the mining craze factor in to market share? On the surface, all the cards selling out to miners seems like a financial boon to AMD. But every card sold to a miner is a card not sold to a gamer (or other GPGPU user). If miners buy so many cards that availability becomes strained, that's a problem. Gamers who might want to buy AMD end up not being able to, so they just go with Nvidia. The mining craze served to limit any growth AMD could have had with gaming and other GPGPU user bases, it would seem.

 

[AnandThenMan]

I had to RMA that crap 3 times(XFX 5870 black edition), nothing to do with AMD but it left me in a very bitter mindstate and afterwards I never ever bought a AMD gpu again.

You must have not been burnt by bumpgate or you'd be soured from buying an Nvidia GPU for 3 lifetimes. At least with a bad graphics card you can get back a working one that won't fail by design. I had the extreme displeasure of being caught in the middle of the bumpgate mess, I lost clients because of it.

Nvidia was never fairly punished marketshare wise for bumpgate IMO, it got swept under the rug and consumers lost billions. The vast majority of people assumed it was the laptop/notebook maker that was at fault.

 

[rtsurfer]

I just love the geniuses that are saying that Fiji is going to be the last GPU generation from AMD.

Were you guys also involved in predicting that the world was going to end December 2012.?

 

[AnandThenMan]

I just love the geniuses that are saying that Fiji is going to be the last GPU generation from AMD.

I think the situation AMD is in now, they have not been in before. CPU part of their business is all but dead, their APUs are not selling like they should be, bleeding in desktop products. Only thing keeping AMD ticking is the console contracts, the one thing many said was of no value including Nvidia.

 

[rtsurfer]

I think the situation AMD is in now, they have not been in before. CPU part of their business is all but dead, their APUs are not selling like they should be, bleeding in desktop products. Only thing keeping AMD ticking is the console contracts, the one thing many said was of no value including Nvidia.

Oh I completely agree that their CPU division is dying, but their GPUs are still competitive. The GPU division will either survive by itself or maybe somebody will buy it.

But AMD is not that far behind Nvidia as it is far behind Intel, they can still compete & have a fraction of the market, albeit a pretty smaller one.

Both their Console contracts & GPU division are keeping them afloat.

 

[Jaydip]

You must have not been burnt by bumpgate or you'd be soured from buying an Nvidia GPU for 3 lifetimes. At least with a bad graphics card you can get back a working one that won't fail by design. I had the extreme displeasure of being caught in the middle of the bumpgate mess, I lost clients because of it.

Nvidia was never fairly punished marketshare wise for bumpgate IMO, it got swept under the rug and consumers lost billions. The vast majority of people assumed it was the laptop/notebook maker that was at fault.

And I bet you haven't bought a NV gpu in a long time, as I said prejudices play a very important role in our purchase decision and it is very natural IMO.

 

[RussianSensation]

So you crossed off AMD GPUs off your list because the known to fail XFX 5870 let you down? Not sure I get that since we have people on our boards with failed 570, 670 cards, etc. Should we talk about the utterly horrendous GeForce 8 that was a ticking lead-free solder time bomb? I bet the failure rate of GeForce 8 is catastrophic over 5 years of ownership. This is not like 1 vendor producing crap but ALL mobile and desktop GeForce 8 cards. Every single one can fail at any time since they are all flawed.

Also, $1000 Titan, $650 280, $650 780 leave a negative association for me with NV, not positive. To you NV selling $1000 Titan and $3000 Titan Z is good brand image, but to me it's arrogance, rip off milking cows, and greed.

It's like they want me to bend over for marginally faster performance? 980 for $550 when I can get nearly 2 290Xs for that price and send 980 to the grave in 90% of titles (same with unlocked 6950s vs. a 580). For me AMD is like a Porsche GT3, gives me 90% of the performance of Ferrari 458/McLaren MP4-12C for a fraction of the price, minus the snob factor. Once a new gen comes out, I put the money towards a new card and move on. NV used to be like that with stunning cards like GeForce 3 Ti 200, GeForce 4 Ti 4200, GeForce 6800 GT, GTX460/470. Since GTX580, NV basically sent message to me that I gotta pay 50-100% more for 18-20% more peformance. It's not a little bit more, it's a lot more.

Frankly for me, NV wasn't even an option for the last 5 years since AMD cards made $ and I still bought 470s to play around with during the mining craze. But that proves the point of many posters here -- NV users will pay $1000 for dual 680s rather than get 7970s free. There are posters on this forum who will pay $1000 for GM200 instead of getting dual 390X for free. It's because of blind following of NV brand that AMD can release a card 2X faster for 0.5X the price, and most NV owners would still buy NV.

Look at horrible cards like 450GTS, GTX550, 650/650Ti, 750/750Ti. Sold like hot cakes and all of them were overpriced junk for 80% of their lives. People buy 750Ti for the same price as a 30-35% faster R9 270 with games included too. What more do you need to know?

Buying NV also no longer means bullet proof drivers or future-proofness. NV stops supporting their old cards like Kepler and they purposely make their cards VRAM limited so you upgrade to their next gen. In many ways NV is like Apple and JHH has praised Apple many times. He loves high prices, snobbery brand image, and closed/proprietary features and marketing tactics. I had the money to buy 580s and 780Tis since AMD cards made me thousands of dollars in mining but then I see how quickly GPUs become obsolete, so I see no point paying top dollar for 10-15% more peformance with NV. It's not like 4200 or 6800GT days where I could buy NV's 2nd or 3rd best card and get 90% of flagship performance. The company that consistently brings this now is AMD. I am glad I saved thousands of dollars since 2008 and lost almost nothing in performance.

I would say the market share reflects the average PC gamer well. They are not very knowledgeable, don't understand tech and buy based on brand name / marketing. I spent $0 on graphics cards from 2008, but how much has an NV user spent since then? That's all I need to know. I know I made the right decision, if anything should have bought 10X more AMD cards

 

[AnandThenMan]

And I bet you haven't bought a NV gpu in a long time...

You would be very wrong. I have almost always had at least one ATI/AMD and one Nvidia GPU at any given time.

Should we talk about the utterly horrendous GeForce 8 that was a ticking lead-free solder time bomb? I bet the failure rate of GeForce 8 is catastrophic over 5 years of ownership.

Catastrophic is a good word, they ALL fail eventually.

Look at horrible cards like 450GTS, GTX550, 650/650Ti, 750/750Ti. Sold like hot cakes and all of them were overpriced junk for 80% of their lives. People buy 750Ti for the same price as a 30-35% fastwr R9 270 with games included too. What more do you need to know?

Can't forget the GeForce4 MX, and FX series. A lot of people bought the FX cards and most were dreadful. Absolute garbage.

 

[StinkyPinky]

I've never understood why some people get excited when one company starts to dominate. Like Intel in the CPU space or nvidia in the discrete graphics market. We NEED competition. If AMD starts to think there's no money in high end discrete graphics then that's a serious blow for all of us. I have no brand loyalty, I buy whatever suites my needs and budget at the time.

 

[NIGELG]

You would be very wrong. I have almost always had at least one ATI/AMD and one Nvidia GPU at any given time.

Catastrophic is a good word, they ALL fail eventually.

Can't forget the GeForce4 MX, and FX series. A lot of people bought the FX cards and most were dreadful. Absolute garbage.

Sigh....I was a victim of Geforce MX 440 and Geforce 8800 GTS...I didn't know better.

 

[tential]

Worse, 30bn losses for consumers because of willfully sold faulty chips, and they got away with it with people still saying that Nvidia means quality when no other brand in the electronic market has a record of such bad quality...
Marketing, viral or not, seems efficient.

Are you talking about those mobile chips? Because it's.mind boggling to me.that nvidia skated through that essentially unscathed.

 

[Enigmoid]

It was also before AMD (or AMD AIBs however you want to call it) reacted with the price cuts. The playing field will level out but AMD needs to be more aggressive with product releases. Release the 380x first, then 390X, then 390 or what ever. That's exactly what NVidia does because they know exactly that the enthusiasts who bought the 970 and 980, will also buy the Big Maxwell cores once they are released, they double their profits.

The problem with the price cuts is that they decrease margins.

$240 290 means about $40 for the retailer, $40 for the OEM, $80 for pcb + GDDR5 + packaging and manufacturing with only something like $80 going to AMD.

Market share at the cost of profits. That is the damage Nvidia is doing to AMD with the 970. 290s have 512 bit memory meaning pcb costs are much higher (though they can get away with cheaper GDDR5). 290 power delivery likely costs more.

NV won those markets by default for the last 3 years since AMD doesn't show up at all. How do you expect to compete against 840/850/860M and 970M when you have no products to show?

When AMD wins designs in laptops, they usually pair a 7970M/8970M style card with some anemic AMD CPU. People don't want those laptops. Even if 390M is 100X faster than 980M, people will NOT buy a gaming laptop with a slow AMD cpu that makes everything CPU limited.

AMD lost the mobile high end when they shoved enduro into everything and completely messed up people with a 7970m to the point where the $300-350 upgrade to the 680m was completely recommended on forums. Notebook OEMs pretty much dropped AMD on the high then and in the minds of many mobile games AMD is dead to them.

As well, notebooks are sold as a package making brand image a more powerful thing. The difference between a $200 amd card and a $350 nvidia card is much less noticeable in a $1700 notebook.

 

[AnandThenMan]

I've never understood why some people get excited when one company starts to dominate.

This is nothing new, way back when the Atari versus Amiga arguments were very similar to what we see now. Both sides wanted their favourite company to dominate, didn't think about or consider if there was no competition. There is a tremendous psychological attachment that occurs between consumer and product, so when the competition suffers there is satisfaction on the "winning" side.