Originally posted by: n7
You don't agree that what Sweeney is saying makes a lot of sense?
I'm not saying that in the least. Of course what he says makes sense to us and to him given the known data points, boundary conditions and initial conditions
He's a rational man using his logic to make a justifiable statement about the perceived outcome of the current trajectory his industry is in.
Were he to make any other statement then he'd be brandished a fool as no other statement would be justifiable unless he presented evidence in his argument to alter the boundary or initial conditions we perceive his industry to be beholden to.
This is why "stating the obvious" tends to be what brainy people do all the time. If they stated something that defied the obvious then they wouldn't be considered brainy.
In a round-about way he's saying he can't rationalize a way to justify how the future won't come to represent the end result of its current trajectory. Fair enough, I'd be disappointed if he couldn't pass this bare minimum self-consistency test.
But what I am saying is this is perhaps the easiest way for us non-industry titans to know what exactly is NOT going to happen. We don't know what the future of graphics holds for us or the market players, but I've yet to see a single-instance where an industry titan says "in 3-5 yrs, this will come to pass" and in fact it does.
So my rule of thumb when it comes to these things is this:
if there were 1000 possible outcomes and an industry titan (Moore, Sweeney, Kilby, etc) says "XYZ is going to happen" then first we can now safely conclude XYZ most certainly is NOT going to happen and secondly the pool of possibilities has just decreased by one, so now we are left with 999 possible outcomes (so there was value added by the industry titan after all).
Got any Rambus RDRAM memory in your desktop?
I don't expect anyone to agree with my philosophy here, just sharing to explain why I agree that Sweeney makes sense but at the same time I take his logic as all the proof I need to conclude it is exactly what will not be happening.