Help me decipher this probability question...

[Random Variable]

There are k people in a group and you are one of them, say the person #1. Everyone else makes friends with two other people. If you pick a friend, who also picks you as a friend, then you match. Find the probability that you find a match.

My interpretation: Everybody from the group picks two people. If one of the two people that you picked also picked you then you found a match.

I already wrote the program (using my interpretation).

For a group of 30, I'm getting a probability of about 14%.

EDIT: Or maybe you only pick one person, while everyone else picks two?

 

[OdiN]

This isn't simple probablility. This is a complex group and there are more rules that govern its behavior than simple probability. There are things that probability does not take into effect such as the fact that certain people will be drawn towards different personality types, appearances, etc. The real world is not so cut and dry as 14%.

 

[Random Variable]

Originally posted by: OdiN
This isn't simple probablility. This is a complex group and there are more rules that govern its behavior than simple probability. There are things that probability does not take into effect such as the fact that certain people will be drawn towards different personality types, appearances, etc. The real world is not so cut and dry as 14%.

That's nice. But I just want to know what the heck the question is asking.

EDIT: And if you run the program a million times, you can sort of ignore those things.

 

[KillerCharlie]

Does somebody want to be my friend? :heart:

Haha, I'm sorry, I have no idea what it's asking. I'm an engineer, not a mathematician. Engineers don't have friends. Neither do mathematicians either, I guess.

 

[bmacd]

Random Variable: what equation did you use to come to your conclusion?

-=bmacd=-

 

[Random Variable]

Originally posted by: bmacd
Random Variable: what equation did you use to come to your conclusion?

-=bmacd=-

I didn't use any equation. I just wrote a program that would do the experiment (and check to see if I found a match) and then I ran the program 50,000 times.