HD5770 and HD5750 predictions thread

[cbn]

Go ahead and mark your votes.

I came up with the idea of 1280 stream processors based on ATI's recent trend of "doubling" the processing power of the flagship HD58xx over Hd48xx.

If this holds true for HD5770 we should see twice as many stream processors compared to the 640 HD4770 had.

The idea of 10% less stream processors for HD5750 came from this report here-->http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/15786/1/ . Disabling 10% of the stream processors is consistent with what ATI has done with another card (HD5850) compared to its parent HD5870.

[Assuming any of these speculations are true] this leaves the size of the memory bus in question. With some reports hinting at 128 bit/GDD5 I am wondering if this would be enough bandwidth?

 

[s44]

No 1120 option for 5770? That's what the actual rumors have said.

 

[cbn]

Originally posted by: s44
No 1120 option for 5770? That's what the actual rumors have said.

I just added some 1120 stream processor options (in the poll) for HD5770.

 

[Tempered81]

I dont see a option for 800sp, that is my choice

 

[cbn]

Originally posted by: Tempered81
I dont see a option for 800sp, that is my choice

I didn't put 800 stream processors in the poll because this Anandtech article discussed 14 SIMD units for "Juniper".

http://www.anandtech.com/video/showdoc.aspx?i=3643&p=3

14 SIMD units would be 1120 stream processors which is consistent with the benching done by mymypc.com on their HD5750 sample.

 

[bunnyfubbles]

correct me if I'm wrong, but is 224 bit even possible? the ram chips operate on 64 bit channels, so 128bit is essentially dual channel, 192bit triple channel, 256bit quad channel, etc...this is also why a 192bit card would be stuck with odd ram capacities such as 768MB and 1536MB. That is also part of the reason why I'm skeptical about a 192bit bus...768MB would seem too low for a 5770, but 1536MB would definitely be too high when the 5800s are still stuck at 1024MB.

Otherwise a 192bit bus would be perfect for ~1150-1300MHz GDDR5 as it would provide roughly the same bandwidth the 4870 and 4890 get. Ideally I'm hoping to see a 256bit 5770 and a 192bit 5750 (a 256bit 5750 would be too good to be true), although I fear 128bit on the 5750 or possibly both.

 

[cbn]

Originally posted by: bunnyfubbles
correct me if I'm wrong, but is 224 bit even possible? the ram chips operate on 64 bit channels, so 128bit is essentially dual channel, 192bit triple channel, 256bit quad channel, etc..

Thanks for the correction. I chose 224 bit only because I saw the DDR3 GTX275 have 448 bit....thinking that half 448 was possible in the same way half 512 was possible.

I will change the poll options.

 

[cbn]

Originally posted by: bunnyfubbles
Ideally I'm hoping to see a 256bit 5770 and a 192bit 5750 (a 256bit 5750 would be too good to be true), although I fear 128bit on the 5750 or possibly both.

It amazes me to think of 1120 stream processors @ 700 Mhz for HD5750 coupled to 128 bit bus with DDR5@ 1150 Mhz.

Seriously that is 56% more TFLOPs than HD4850 but only 15% more bandwidth....or to put this in perspective roughly the same amount of TFLOPs as 800 stream processors doing 1000 Mhz (ie, Special OC editions of HD4890).

 

[MarcVenice]

Originally posted by: Just learning

Originally posted by: bunnyfubbles
Ideally I'm hoping to see a 256bit 5770 and a 192bit 5750 (a 256bit 5750 would be too good to be true), although I fear 128bit on the 5750 or possibly both.

It amazes me to think of 1120 stream processors @ 700 Mhz for HD5750 coupled to 128 bit bus with DDR5@ 1150 Mhz.

Seriously that is 56% more TFLOPs than HD4850 but only 15% more bandwidth....or to put this in perspective roughly the same amount of TFLOPs as 800 stream processors doing 1000 Mhz (ie, Special OC editions of HD4890).

Actually, 56% more tflops and 15% more bandwith would be in line with the jump in tflops from the 4870 to the 5870 and the increase in bandwith, which was something like 30%, but more then twice the tflops.

Also, afaik the specs allready leaked out, here: http://www.mymypc.com/vbp/forum/showthread.php?p=58958

 

[MODEL3]

1.Fudzilla article is based on what mymypc is saying (it mentions it and also it has a link in the end)
2.Mymypc review (from forum member...) is fishy.
3.The tested card is 5750 according to mymypc.
4.the 5700 series according to mymypc is 1120SPs.
5.This means 1120SPs is for 5770 and 5750 according to mymypc. (unless they meant otherwise, which is not what they wrote)
6.700MHz is for the 5750 card according to mymypc.
7.Also 700MHz is around what someone would expect from a 40nm 50 type part to achieve.
8.One of the reasons (there are many) that mymypc review is fishy is because the 3D mark vantage scores indicate 800SPs. (while saying 1120 SPs)

Now regarding predictions:

1.
5770= 850-825MHz 16ROPs / 64 TUs / 1280SPs / 5Gbps 1GB 128bit bus $199 price.

5750= 725-700MHz 16ROPs / 56 TUs / 1120SPs / 4Gbps 1GB 128bit bus $149 price.

2.
5770= 850-825MHz 16ROPs / 48 TUs / 960SPs / 4,5Gbps 1GB 128bit bus $169 price.

5750= 725-700MHz 16ROPs / 40 TUs / 800SPs / 3,6Gbps 1GB 128bit bus $129 price.

I prefer the second one (51% - 49%) for 2 reasons:

1.The 5850 price is 260$ instead of the rumourd $300. So if there is going to be a 5830 later, it will be close to 5770 price. ($200 case)

2.With the Q4 2009 and Q1 2010 games (many Q4 2009 slipped to Q1 2010) the performance that ATI will be able to extract with a 16SIMD design with only 16ROPs will be less than ideal...
(and by the time a 16SIMD design will have ideal perf. scaling (with 16ROPs) ATI will probably have a succesor already...)

 

[cbn]

Originally posted by: MODEL3

2.Mymypc review (from forum member...) is fishy.

With regard to that mymyPC forum member test, I am having a hard time believing something with as much TFLOPS as a 1 Ghz core HD4890 only scores slightly better than 250 GTS and HD4850.

 

[cbn]

Originally posted by: MODEL3
2.With the Q4 2009 and Q1 2010 games (many Q4 2009 slipped to Q1 2010) the performance that ATI will be able to extract with a 16SIMD design with only 16ROPs will be less than ideal...
(and by the time a 16SIMD design will have ideal perf. scaling (with 16ROPs) ATI will probably have a succesor already...)

I couldn't find ROPs (whatever they do) listed for HD5750 in the GPU-z provided by the mymypc.com forum member. Are we sure there are only 16 for Juniper XT/Juniper LE?

 

[MODEL3]

Originally posted by: Just learning

Originally posted by: MODEL3
2.With the Q4 2009 and Q1 2010 games (many Q4 2009 slipped to Q1 2010) the performance that ATI will be able to extract with a 16SIMD design with only 16ROPs will be less than ideal...
(and by the time a 16SIMD design will have ideal perf. scaling (with 16ROPs) ATI will probably have a succesor already...)

I couldn't find ROPs (whatever they do) listed for HD5750 in the GPU-z provided by the mymypc.com forum member. Are we sure there are only 16 for Juniper XT/Juniper LE?

If you see the PCB, it has 4 memory ICs on the one side and the GPU-Z showing memory bus is 128bit.

If the architecture is similar with 58XX tech this means 16ROPs for 5750 (according to what mymypc is showing...)

But for the HD5770 it could (theoritically) be 24ROPs with 192bit memory bus (if the 5750 part has 8ROPs disabled, 0.000000000001% chance...)

The thing is Anandtech reviewer said that Juniper is 14SIMD design and probably has 192bit bus. (This is all based, because he saw an AMD?s simulation testing and many sites linked the AT 14SIMD info, this is going to be a serious mistake if the specs doesn't turn out to be these)

 

[nemesismk2]

I think both the 5770 and 5750 will be 128Bit just like the 4470.

 

[bunnyfubbles]

Are the 5700s going to be straight cut downs or are they going to be modified in any way? Is there any way to reduce/increase the number of ROPs per channel (say 6 instead of 8 if its 256bit, or 12 instead of 8 if 128bit)? Otherwise a 192bit bus makes a lot of sense in terms of leaving a desirable number of ROPs as well as delivering just enough memory bandwidth to keep the 5700s ahead of the 4800s in every way. But again I'll stress the memory capacity dilemma: unless I'm mistaken, with a 192 bit configuration they'll be stuck with supplying in sizes of 768MB and 1.5GB. 768MB could work for for the 5750 as high as $150, but for a $200 5770 that amount is very anemic, which leaves it with 1.5GB, a capacity that trumps the 5800s which are still limited to 1GB.

I also don't think we'll see much of a 5830, at least not as a wide spread part. The 4830 was a temporary solution to hold a price point until the 4770 could replace it. Of which, even if we do see a limited number of 5830s there wouldn't be a need to price the 5770 lower than $200 (unless underwhelming performance demanded it). There's nothing wrong with having two parts performing and priced at the same level if one of those parts is in short supply, existing only to use up inventory.

That being said, I think we're most likely to see 1120SP flavored 5700s; drop too low and there is less reason to avoid the 4800s in favor of the 5700s; for instance, that 2nd example 5750 (~700MHz, 800SP, 40TMU, 16ROP, 73.6GB/sec vs. ~750MHz, 800SP, 40TMU, 16ROP, 115.2GB/sec) could easily be slower than a 4870 in several situations. Even a reduced price of $129 wouldn't exactly match up considering 4870s can be bought for that same price now), as well as leave less room for the 5600s (which I'd fully expect to essentially be a DX11 4770)

 

[cbn]

Originally posted by: bunnyfubbles
But again I'll stress the memory capacity dilemma: unless I'm mistaken, with a 192 bit configuration they'll be stuck with supplying in sizes of 768MB and 1.5GB. 768MB could work for for the 5750 as high as $150, but for a $200 5770 that amount is very anemic, which leaves it with 1.5GB, a capacity that trumps the 5800s which are still limited to 1GB.

HD58xx are supposed to be coming out with 2 GB right? So would having a 1.5 GB HD5770 really be a bad idea?

Also something to consider is Crossfire. In that scenario a 1.5 GB HD5770 probably is more practical.

Eventually I am hoping to see some Good crossfire HD5770 Crossfire comparisons to single HD58xx ( especially when we consider both set-ups use the same number of power connectors.)

 

[MODEL3]

It seems that the ROPs are closely tied to the memory controller (2 quads per 64bit).
So 24 ROPs with 128bit or 256bit memory bus seems not very possible scenario.

The 5830 will probably be just like 4830. (in the sense that AMD must sell all those chips that do not meet 5850 standards, they can't just throw them, so the 5830 quantity probably will be the same as 4830 or a bit more since the 3,15 billion tran. part probably will have more defects than a 956 million tran. part, but overall the 5830 impact in the market will be small)

The 5830 if it going to be like 4830 it will have the below specs:

675MHz core / 32ROPs / 64 TUs / 1280SPs / 1GB 3,6Gbps / 256bit memory bus

So if the 5770 will be 16ROP, the 5830 for many applications will be much faster.


I am split (51%-49%) between my 2 scenarios mostly because of 5670. (otherwise if there wasn't a 5670 it would be like 75%-25%)

I have 2 5670 predictions.
The higher one is with 800MHz core / 16ROPs / 32 TUs / 640SPs.

So if there is going to be a 1GB SKU in that scenario (2nd), the price should be uncomfortable close to 5750 (but i won't be the first time in ATI/NVs history to happen this)


Right now the lowest prices without mail-in rebates is around $149.99 for 4870 1GB and around $124.99 for 4870 512MB.
I guess it is logical ATI to price the the DX11 parts higher if the performance is the same.

For example a DX11 850MHz 960SP 1GB 128bit bus design will have around same performance (-10% up to +10%, depending on the game) as a 4870 1GB, so around 169$ is not so bad.

But like i said i like both scenarios.

Some rumours saying that the NDA is lifting in a week so we will see soon the real specs.

 

[cbn]

Originally posted by: MODEL3

I am split (51%-49%) between my 2 scenarios mostly because of 5670. (otherwise if there wasn't a 5670 it would be like 75%-25%)

I have 2 5670 predictions.
The higher one is with 800MHz core / 16ROPs / 32 TUs / 640SPs.

I think you might be right about HD5670. 40nm HD4770 had roughly the same die size as 55nm HD4670 and according to tests done by x-bit labs it didn't even need the external power connector.

HD5670 might be a really hot seller if that 6-pin can be eliminated.

 

[LCD123]

None of your choices are realistic. ATI's midrange cards have always had a fraction the number of shaders/processors as their high end cards. Such as 120 to 320 vs. the 640 to 800 of their high end. I predict the 5770's core will be as powerful as a 4870 or even 4890 but it's memory bandwith will be much less than a 4830. Therefore, I say itll be equal to a 4830 in performance. But I could be wrong and the 4830 may still be faster because it has much more memory bandwith!

Originally posted by: Tempered81
I dont see a option for 800sp, that is my choice

I agree, it could be 800 to 1000sp

 

[Stoneburner]

http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/15838/1/

Looks like the 5750 is going to be the card to get.

Maybe I should have recapped.

The HD5750 packs a Juniper LE GPU at 725MHz and 1GB of GDDR5 memory clocked at 1150MHz on a 128-bit bus. It has 1120 stream processors and 56 texture units. Of course, it supports DirectX 11 and shader model 5. This sounds like a pretty tempting deal at just ?119. If you're after the HD5770, you will get an 825MHz Juniper XT GPU, while the rest of the spec is identical to the LE version. While it will be somewhat faster than the HD 5750, we're really not sure the 125MHz higher clock is worth 25 percent more.

 

[Earthling01]

Originally posted by: LCD123
None of your choices are realistic. ATI's midrange cards have always had a fraction the number of shaders/processors as their high end cards. Such as 120 to 320 vs. the 640 to 800 of their high end. I predict the 5770's core will be as powerful as a 4870 or even 4890 but it's memory bandwith will be much less than a 4830. Therefore, I say itll be equal to a 4830 in performance. But I could be wrong and the 4830 may still be faster because it has much more memory bandwith!

Originally posted by: Tempered81
I dont see a option for 800sp, that is my choice

I agree, it could be 800 to 1000sp

But I thought the 4770 is already as good or maybe even a bit better than a 4830 in overall performance. It doesn't seem realistic to me that their 5770 will not be a decent bit faster than their 4770.

 

[MODEL3]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/15838/1/

Looks like the 5750 is going to be the card to get.

Maybe I should have recapped.

The HD5750 packs a Juniper LE GPU at 725MHz and 1GB of GDDR5 memory clocked at 1150MHz on a 128-bit bus. It has 1120 stream processors and 56 texture units. Of course, it supports DirectX 11 and shader model 5. This sounds like a pretty tempting deal at just ?119. If you're after the HD5770, you will get an 825MHz Juniper XT GPU, while the rest of the spec is identical to the LE version. While it will be somewhat faster than the HD 5750, we're really not sure the 125MHz higher clock is worth 25 percent more.

O.K. the 5750 is close to my first scenario.

But the 5770 specs are strange.

I mean the ROPs/TUs/SPs are the same as 5750
the memory bus is the same (128bit) as 5750
the memory clock is the same (1150MHz) as 5750

the only difference is that 5750 has -12% core clock (825MHz->725MHz) in relation with 5770.
It seems kinda strange.
Maybe it was a copy/paste situation?
Also the 5770 is +25% more in price than 5750.
Anyway we will see.

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: MODEL3

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/15838/1/

Looks like the 5750 is going to be the card to get.

Maybe I should have recapped.

The HD5750 packs a Juniper LE GPU at 725MHz and 1GB of GDDR5 memory clocked at 1150MHz on a 128-bit bus. It has 1120 stream processors and 56 texture units. Of course, it supports DirectX 11 and shader model 5. This sounds like a pretty tempting deal at just ?119. If you're after the HD5770, you will get an 825MHz Juniper XT GPU, while the rest of the spec is identical to the LE version. While it will be somewhat faster than the HD 5750, we're really not sure the 125MHz higher clock is worth 25 percent more.

O.K. the 5750 is close to my first scenario.

But the 5770 specs are strange.

I mean the ROPs/TUs/SPs are the same as 5750
the memory bus is the same (128bit) as 5750
the memory clock is the same (1150MHz) as 5750

the only difference is that 5750 has -12% core clock (825MHz->725MHz) in relation with 5770.
It seems kinda strange.
Maybe it was a copy/paste situation?
Also the 5770 is +25% more in price than 5750.
Anyway we will see.

It does seem odd, but if it's true maybe the 5750 will be able to overclock to 800 plus with regularity.

 

[StinkyPinky]

So the 5770 will be slower than the 4890?

If so, there's no point upgrading from my 8800gt. Guess i'll have to save some cash for the 5850.

 

[cbn]

Model3,

What do you think is a greater issue with HD57xx: 16 ROPs or Memory bandwidth?