HD-DVD and Blu-ray already obsolete?

[GunsMadeAmericaFree]

I've recently found out that a new video disk standard has emerged - the Holographic Video Disk. Maxell started shipping 300 Gigabyte versions to TV studios about a year ago, and they've caught on big. It is only a matter of time before consumer versions start being released, and ever larger sizes are developed.

Currently, the HVD has 300 Gigabytes, but due to the capability of using nearly all of the space inside of the disk for a holographic storage, the eventual upper limit of the disks should be close to 4 Terabytes.

Here's how things stand currently:

Tech starting eventual

HD-DVD 15 GB 30 GB

Blu-ray 25 GB 50 GB

HVD 300 GB 3.9 Terabytes


So, the current HVD's hold 12 times what the current Blu-ray disks hold, and 20 times what the current HD-DVD's hold. That's also the equivalent of about 63 DVD's - all on one disk. Currently, with the HVD, I could archive my entire hard drive to a single disk.

Using mpeg-4, I can put about 22 hours of video on a single DVD. This means I could put over 1,300 hours of video on a single HVD. It could play for over 57 days - nearly two full months - 24 hours a day before it would run out of fresh material to watch. (assuming the roughly 200 megabytes per hour that I encode video into h.264)

Considering that these things have been shipping for a year now, that HD-DVD and/or Blu-ray writing drives are still out of everyone's price range, do you think that these things might just end up as the next real video standard?

Sure, Blu-ray and HD-DVD want us to adopt their standard, but what if people just start buying these as data archiving drives, and backing up all of their video collections onto them? If pretty much every PC out there has one of these, it then becomes a de facto standard. Then it might not be too long until we started seeing stand alone players, and the studios, of course, would want to start releasing films in the format. Or, if they didn't, we could keep downloading and archiving them onto the disks ourselves.

The greatest thing about these (other than the obvious huge storage size) - they have a protective sleeve, just like the old floppy disk! Yes, no more scratched disks, smudged fingerprintes, or lost data from use.

Here's a pic of an actual HVD:

link

 

[Genx87]

I dont believe space is an issue with Blu Ray or HD-DVD. I could see this maybe replacing some tape devices in certain situations if they can get the rewrite capability to match tape.

I still believe HD on demand programming has a shot to end this media war. iTunes proves how much people are willing to not buy CDs. I bet a similar service can be implemented to deliver movies.

 

[superbooga]

Has the hard drive made DVDs and all forms of optical storage obsolete? No, but perhaps in the future.

You're really comparing different technologies with different purposes. HD-DVD and Blu-ray are intended to replace DVDs. It's enough storage to fit a full length movie with some interactive features and extras. It's intended for movie watching in the home entertainment environment, not for archiving a huge collection of videos. Most users are do not bother ripping movies and storing them in the computer. Until distribution of video files over the Internet becomes big, there is really no huge demand, in the consumer electronics, to have a device . Broadband is simply too slow right now and studios are reluctant to let users download and save videos.

 

[JAG87]

just like with DVDs and blu-ray, were talking about it now and we will be using it another 10 years from now.

the player and writer for those discs costs tens of thousands, and believe me it wont come down to 300 bucks in 2 years.

its nice to fantasize, but both bluray and hd-dvd will have their time to shine before being obsolete. just like DVDs did.

and dont forget my friend, when bestbuy will be selling 4 terabyte HVDs, there will be something else that can hold 50 terabytes on the horizon.

 

[Sonikku]

Blu Ray and HD DVD are formats the general population don't really care about. They'll die a slow death that will last years.

 

[Fallen Kell]

I remember hearing about this disc format. However one of the HUGE limitations at least to consumers is that it is a read-only format. The discs need to have the information stamped or otherwise applied to them, and thus no ability for the home user to record through a burner. Remember the reason why VHS beat Beta was because it could record an extra 2 hours on the tapes. The consumer needs still have not changed even in today's market of DVR's. A way to properly offload the movie or video to a high capacity off-line medium is still needed, which this will never be able to do. It is also why I still believe that Blu-Ray will still win the current war even with HD-DVD's Tipple Layer discs because these are also read-only (not burnable only stamp-able).

 

[onlyCOpunk]

Are you talking they are obsolete storage wise? Or video wise? Because storage wise sure, the bigger the better. But video wise, I don't think you can really go higher then 1080p? Can you?

 

[GunsMadeAmericaFree]

>Blu Ray and HD DVD are formats the general population don't really care about. They'll die a >slow death that will last years.

Amen. Especially if another studio becomes HD-DVD exclusive like Paramount just did, people will hold off for ages from embracing either. Plain old DVD is still expected to be king for at least 3 to 4 more years, which leaves plenty of time for something else to become the "next big thing". This could especially happen if a group gets behind the new format, avoids a format war, and bends over backwards to give the CONSUMERS what they want, instead of kowtowing to hollywood, for a change.


>I remember hearing about this disc format. However one of the HUGE limitations at least
>to consumers is that it is a read-only format.

I see that as more of a benefit - especially after backing up a year's worth of data (including my son's first birthday party pictures) to a DVD+RW disk, and then accidentally writing over them later by choosing the wrong drive while doing a backup. Besides, I'm sure they could come up with a RW form of the tech, given a couple of years.



>The discs need to have the information stamped or otherwise applied to them, and thus no >ability for the home user to record through a burner.

What are you talking about? This thing uses a green laser to burn data, much like a red or blue laser is used in current gen burners. Nothing gets stamped - you must be thinking of vinyl records or something.


>A way to properly offload the movie or video to a high capacity off-line medium is still >needed, which this will never be able to do.

Why do you think this thing has become so popular with TV stations? It's because they use it to do exactly what you are talking about. They get the new programming through their big dish setup, then save it on the fly to the HVD. (essentially 'downloading' the video to a high capacity offline medium) In a couple of years, I wouldn't be surprised to see many movie theaters using this in conjunction with a digital projector to do the same exact sort of thing. They can download the latest movie using a secure satellite dish, and save it in extremely high definition to one of these. (could probably still fit several movies on the same disk) Then instead of using film, they would just play the digital file. It would make it much harder for thieves to get their hands on the movie ahead of time.

 

[bunnyfubbles]

Originally posted by: Fallen Kell
I remember hearing about this disc format. However one of the HUGE limitations at least to consumers is that it is a read-only format. The discs need to have the information stamped or otherwise applied to them, and thus no ability for the home user to record through a burner. Remember the reason why VHS beat Beta was because it could record an extra 2 hours on the tapes. The consumer needs still have not changed even in today's market of DVR's. A way to properly offload the movie or video to a high capacity off-line medium is still needed, which this will never be able to do. It is also why I still believe that Blu-Ray will still win the current war even with HD-DVD's Tipple Layer discs because these are also read-only (not burnable only stamp-able).

I really agree, as much as I might want HD-DVD to win because it really sounds like slightly better format for buying/renting and watching movies, when I think about using them as a storage format the single layer Bluray sounds really good @ 25GB. On the one hand I want HD-DVD to win on the home theater front, but for PC I'd want BluRay...

Originally posted by: onlyCOpunk
Are you talking they are obsolete storage wise? Or video wise? Because storage wise sure, the bigger the better. But video wise, I don't think you can really go higher then 1080p? Can you?

Bigger does not always mean better, read/write times are very important as well. Of course you can go higher than 1080p, but recording sources would be a problem and the number of people who could take advantage of a higher resolution format would be really small (people with 30" LCD monitors for example - 2560x1600). But even then you don't need higher resolution to take advantage of more space as you could always use vastly higher quality compression to store your HD video on a 300GB disc.

 

[SickBeast]

Originally posted by: onlyCOpunk
Are you talking they are obsolete storage wise? Or video wise? Because storage wise sure, the bigger the better. But video wise, I don't think you can really go higher then 1080p? Can you?

You can but it's completely pointless. Even 1080P is overkill for most people. I have a 46" 1080P LCD, and I can only see the difference between 1080i and 1080P when I'm maybe 6' from the screen.

I could see movie theatres needing higher res, but I'm pretty sure they still use an analog film reel which is about as good as it gets right now anyways, in terms of raw resolution.

As for the main discussion, I wouldn't call them 'obsolete'; I would call them more redundant than anything.

They don't bring enough to the table to justify an upgrade. It's not like comparing VHS to DVD; it's a much smaller step up in terms of quality.

The formats came out too quick. Look at how long people have been using CDs. :light:

 

[ConstipatedVigilante]

Maybe none of these formats will really be that important. Keep fiber optics in mind. Verizon has installed FiOS in my town. I bet you could download movies through that and stream them from a home entertainment PC (with something like ATi Avivo or Nvidia PureVideo) to an HDTV. I don't see either Blu-Ray or HD-DVD being widely used in the future if they aren't now. Sony is monopolizing Blu-Ray, while HD-DVD just isn't a huge improvement over current DVDs.

 

[superbooga]

The only way Blu-Ray/HD-DVD will die a slow death is if on-demand content really takes off. Given the sad state of broadband in this country, that may take a while.

If you think about it, DVD was around in the late 90's, but it took about 4 years to really catch on with the general public, and like 7 years before it started outselling VHS. By the end of next year, you will probably see DUAL-FORMAT players available for $200 or less. Then people will start caring about HD-DVD and Blu-ray.

 

[superbooga]

Originally posted by: GunsMadeAmericaFree
Why do you think this thing has become so popular with TV stations? It's because they use it to do exactly what you are talking about. They get the new programming through their big dish setup, then save it on the fly to the HVD. (essentially 'downloading' the video to a high capacity offline medium) In a couple of years, I wouldn't be surprised to see many movie theaters using this in conjunction with a digital projector to do the same exact sort of thing. They can download the latest movie using a secure satellite dish, and save it in extremely high definition to one of these. (could probably still fit several movies on the same disk) Then instead of using film, they would just play the digital file. It would make it much harder for thieves to get their hands on the movie ahead of time.

Yes, but this doesn't apply to the regular consumer.

Once broadband/communications are fast enough, you know studios aren't going to let you save stuff to a storage device. Everything will just be streamed real-time. The point is an optical disc that has sufficient storage for 3 hours of HD content perfectly suits both consumers and the movie studios.

 

[Matt2]

Originally posted by: ConstipatedVigilante
Maybe none of these formats will really be that important. Keep fiber optics in mind. Verizon has installed FiOS in my town. I bet you could download movies through that and stream them from a home entertainment PC (with something like ATi Avivo or Nvidia PureVideo) to an HDTV. I don't see either Blu-Ray or HD-DVD being widely used in the future if they aren't now. Sony is monopolizing Blu-Ray, while HD-DVD just isn't a huge improvement over current DVDs.

Are you kidding?

HD-DVD IQ is just as good as blu-ray (both have their good and bad looking movies), but both look worlds apart from standard DVD, even at 720p.

 

[cmdrdredd]

Originally posted by: Matt2

Originally posted by: ConstipatedVigilante
Maybe none of these formats will really be that important. Keep fiber optics in mind. Verizon has installed FiOS in my town. I bet you could download movies through that and stream them from a home entertainment PC (with something like ATi Avivo or Nvidia PureVideo) to an HDTV. I don't see either Blu-Ray or HD-DVD being widely used in the future if they aren't now. Sony is monopolizing Blu-Ray, while HD-DVD just isn't a huge improvement over current DVDs.

Are you kidding?

HD-DVD IQ is just as good as blu-ray (both have their good and bad looking movies), but both look worlds apart from standard DVD, even at 720p.

QFT. The first time I saw a movie on HD-DVD format I was impressed. Blue-Ray isn't any better or worse looking than HD-DVD is now. AT first Blue-Ray actually had lower quality because of their enoding, these days you'll never see the difference at all.

 

[cputeq]

I don't see this becoming a household norm any time soon. What's the point? These HVDs are for archive purposes.

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First, consider this -- BD and HD-DVD are for movie viewing (and I guess PS3 games). They're only larger to fit up to 1080P video on them.

There are still *tons* of consumer TVs that don't even reach 1080P yet! Also, I'm not sure how high the HDMI spec's bandwidth goes, but I'm wondering if it was built with much more than 1080P in mind. There are no TVs that I know of that go over 1080P. While you *can* go over 1080P in consumer devices (and 30" monitors already do more), it's silly to think it's going to catch like wildfire.

BD and HDDVD are having problems catching on, and they've been out for like a year. The average consumer just doesn't give a damn, and either enjoys digital cable + movie downloads or watches DVDs on normal DVD players (or upscaling if they're spiffy).

DVD-9 sales totally blow away HD and BD *combined*, and I don't see this letting up at least until consumer players are below the $100 mark. And even then, you'll have to convince consumers they need to upgrade.


The jump between VHS and DVD was extremely apparent -- No rewinding, instant chapter skip, plainly visible higher quality.

The jump between DVD and BD/HDDVD isn't as clear. Same benefits of the media, but now you need at elast a 720P set to even see the difference. Many consumers *can't* see the difference and think DVD is super clear already.

So yeah....I'd bet my paycheck we won't see holographic take off for at least 10 years, if ever.