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Haven't a Greece thread lately...

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
68,385
3,516
126
Heard a Stock Analyst yesterday suggesting that Greece will leave the EU in 6 months. His reasoning was that there was no way Greece could implement this plan.
 

irishScott

Lifer
Oct 10, 2006
21,568
2
0
Because it's the same-old same-old. New round of austerity measures, riots, idiotic messages from both sides, a few editorials on just how fucked Greece is, and then the rest of the world keeps turning. At least over here across the Atlantic. I imagine the EU is paying more attention.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
34,993
5,039
126
They should leave the Euro zone, even if they decide to stay in the EU.
They need their own currency for their own domestic reasons, regardless of what value it will have relative to the Euro.
 

sactoking

Diamond Member
Sep 24, 2007
6,951
1,800
136
I like how the woman with the completely unprinounceable last name left the gov't because she thought that Ze Germans were using economic warfare against Europe and Greece instead of Nazi stormtroopers.
 

Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
13,306
2
0
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/rogerbootle/9107068/It-may-well-turn-out-that-we-are-watching-not-a-Greek-but-a-euro-tragedy.html

Greece unemployment at 20%, it's near 50% for youth.

The country will keep putting new austerity measures into place until the people finally just grind it to a stop. Then it will leave the Euro and try and restart things. They will never pay this debt down, it's just impossible. They are in a beautiful (for how picture perfect it is) debt spiral. Their economy is contracting at a breathtaking rate while their debt burden increases, and the two are running away from each other. There is no hope at all for them using the path they've been trying to date.
 

walkur

Senior member
May 1, 2001
770
4
81
I like how the woman with the completely unprinounceable last name left the gov't because she thought that Ze Germans were using economic warfare against Europe and Greece instead of Nazi stormtroopers.
Just like some groups advocating a ban on Dutch and German products because they're not giving money with no questions asked.

I mean, were they expecting this kind of reaction?
"Oh gosh, the greeks are angy, it's scary, quick give them more money"

they got "WTF those ungrateful *%$#@! you want money... beg for it"
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,325
126
Heard a Stock Analyst yesterday suggesting that Greece will leave the EU in 6 months. His reasoning was that there was no way Greece could implement this plan.
Greece will eventually default, its pretty much a mathematical certainty. Frankly, I think they should have already done it and gotten it over with instead of dragging all of this out. They will get out from under the debt and the Greeks will be forced to live within their means whether they like it or not. Its actually the best course of action they can take right now, in a few years the markets will start loaning them money again and as long as they are reasonable this time around they will come out much better. About the only way they can avoid it is to basically give up their sovereignty and that kinda tends to eventually cause wars.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
72,593
23,704
136
http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/10/10372649-greek-anger-boils-over-as-country-faces-bankruptcy

Wonder where these protestors think the money needed to sustain their current lifestyles and benefits comes from? And even better, if they leave the EU, what country would be foolish enough to accept any Greek currency?

How much longer before this story happens here?
The answer to your second question is never. The US and Greece are nothing alike.

As an interesting side note, Argentina defaulted on its external debt a number of years back. People currently accept their currency just fine, and their economy has grown pretty well since the initial contraction caused by default.
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,325
126
I like how the woman with the completely unprinounceable last name left the gov't because she thought that Ze Germans were using economic warfare against Europe and Greece instead of Nazi stormtroopers.
Well, they sort of are. They have put forth a few plans in which Greece basically cedes their sovereignty to Germany in return for being bailed out. I wouldn't call it economic warfare because Greece doesn't have to take it but the results of Greece taking some of those deals are fairly similar to losing a real war.
 

crashtestdummy

Platinum Member
Feb 18, 2010
2,893
0
0
http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/10/10372649-greek-anger-boils-over-as-country-faces-bankruptcy

Wonder where these protestors think the money needed to sustain their current lifestyles and benefits comes from? And even better, if they leave the EU, what country would be foolish enough to accept any Greek currency?

How much longer before this story happens here?
It's more than just accepting Greek debt in the new currency. They need to be able to inflate their currency in order to become economically competitive again. Austerity without inflation will leave them ruined. If Greece is doing what's best for itself, it should leave the Euro. That said, Greece leaving the Euro may set of a chain of events that are really, really bad for the rest of the Euro zone.
 

Broheim

Diamond Member
Feb 17, 2011
4,592
2
81
Because it's the same-old same-old. New round of austerity measures, riots, idiotic messages from both sides, a few editorials on just how fucked Greece is, and then the rest of the world keeps turning. At least over here across the Atlantic. I imagine the EU is paying more attention.
most of us are tired of the ungrateful whiny little bitches.

I stopped paying attention long ago because I know where this is heading... us in northern europe gets to pay for the mistakes of southern europe...
 

1prophet

Diamond Member
Aug 17, 2005
5,288
503
126
http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/10/10372649-greek-anger-boils-over-as-country-faces-bankruptcy

Wonder where these protestors think the money needed to sustain their current lifestyles and benefits comes from? And even better, if they leave the EU, what country would be foolish enough to accept any Greek currency?

How much longer before this story happens here?

It all ready has started, look at the municipalities and states instead of the country as a whole.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
Heard a Stock Analyst yesterday suggesting that Greece will leave the EU in 6 months. His reasoning was that there was no way Greece could implement this plan.
I tend to agree with him, although I personally wouldn't place a timetable on exactly when Greece decides its unacceptable.

Looks like Greece will have elections in April. That will give us some insight into how the Greek people feel. Last I heard the two minority parties that were opposed to the bailout conditions were gaining popularity.

Fern
 

Fern

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
Greece will eventually default, its pretty much a mathematical certainty.
-snip-
It's a 100% certainty.

Greece cannot pay. All deals discussed so far involve paying the bondholders less than 50%. That's a default, no way around it.

Fern
 

Fern

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
I like how the woman with the completely unprinounceable last name left the gov't because she thought that Ze Germans were using economic warfare against Europe and Greece instead of Nazi stormtroopers.
I've expected this type of sentiment.

I fear if this feeling becomes wide spread it could lead to other consequences - fascist/nationalistic type government etc.

I don't see how this can turn out well.

Fern
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
My impression, at least from a stock market perspective, is that Greece was so last year and really doesn't matter anymore.

The creditors of Greece, not Greece itself, have been bailed out, and ample time has elapsed so that those with exposure to Greece can delever and derisk and appropriate firewalls to prevent contagion seem to be in place now.

Looks like everyone wants Greece out of Euro, they just don't want to appear to be the ones who pushed them out the door (make it appear Greece asked to leave of their own free will, though I remember reading somewhere that Maastricht Treaty may not have any provisions for any member to leave after the fact):


http://londonbanker.blogspot.com/2012/02/greece-cutting-out-middle-man.html


http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2012/2/29/final-spasm-greco-teutonic-tax-wrestling.html
In Greece, three-quarters of the independent professionals, such as doctors, lawyers, and engineers, declare taxable income below the existential minimum, according to a leaked paper by the EU Commission. Tax fraud amounts to about €20 billion per year (8.5% of GDP), and unpaid taxes amount to €63 billion (27% of GDP). Only a series of bailouts keep the country afloat: first €110 billion, now €130 billion, plus the debt swap of €107 billion. In total €347 billion—150% of GDP! And Germany is by far the largest contributor. For this mindboggling debacle, read.... Greece, “The Bottomless Barrel,” As Germans Say.
I think if you look at what happened in U. S. in 2008 / 2009 and now what happened in Europe last year and this year, I think they were both essentially "financial stability" solutions, designed to maintain the status quo so that those who created this whole mess of leveraged speculation don't get completely wiped out and sufficient time elapses for things to be slowly unwound (shadow banking system?).

Whether it is the U. S., Western Europe and England, China, or Japan, as Mohammed El-Erian of PIMCO said of LTRO, it is (perhaps) a bridge to nowhere (all of this money printing is a temporizing measure that buys precious time, but ultimate solutions are political in nature - governments and voting populations have to make difficult decisions about what balance of austerity and growth they choose to ultimately try to get out of this dilemma).
 
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Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
13,306
2
0
The answer to your second question is never. The US and Greece are nothing alike.
Of course there are many similarities between Greece and the US, the most obvious one being both nations reliant upon debt for growth, inexorably and without it they contract like mad. As I've oft said here, the US is not growing at the moment, not even close. It's using debt to paper over contraction and feign a mild growth indicator (GDP, which doesn't consider the deficit a liability).

I laughed out loud today, for on NPR it was reported that today was the last day Greeks could trade their drachmas into euros. That is hilarious, given that they'll shortly be recreating new drachmas again.
 

spacejamz

Lifer
Mar 31, 2003
10,391
701
126
The answer to your second question is never. The US and Greece are nothing alike.
Are you sure about that? Many US cities are facing huge budget short falls and have huge pension liabilities that are not properly funded in addition the generous benefits packages (medical, time off, retirement, etc) that their government workers get. It is just a matter time before it is time to pay the piper. These cities won't be able to kick the can down the road for much longer. Just like Greece.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
72,593
23,704
136
Are you sure about that? Many US cities are facing huge budget short falls and have huge pension liabilities that are not properly funded in addition the generous benefits packages (medical, time off, retirement, etc) that their government workers get. It is just a matter time before it is time to pay the piper. These cities won't be able to kick the can down the road for much longer. Just like Greece.
Yes, I'm 100% positive. The US can print its own currency, the US is not trapped in a pseudo gold standard, the US has a better debt/GDP ratio, the US has a far more dynamic economy, the US is experiencing growth instead of massive depression, the US' borrowing costs are among the lowest in recorded history, the US isn't facing intractable balance of payments issues enforced by treaty, etc, etc, etc.

People who compare the US to Greece do not understand the problems of either.
 

The-Noid

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2005
3,117
0
76
Yes, I'm 100% positive. The US can print its own currency, the US is not trapped in a pseudo gold standard, the US has a better debt/GDP ratio, the US has a far more dynamic economy, the US is experiencing growth instead of massive depression, the US' borrowing costs are among the lowest in recorded history, the US isn't facing intractable balance of payments issues enforced by treaty, etc, etc, etc.

People who compare the US to Greece do not understand the problems of either.

The ECB balance sheet is now about 33% bigger than the Fed's, how is that a 'pseudo gold standard."

NPV of pension liabilities + Total debt outstanding to GDP is actually higher in the US, not lower. They also have more debt on the Federal level, we would have to add in the states to make a good comparison between the two countries.

The balance of payments issue is an interesting one. Classical ideas would have said we were screwed a long time ago. More contemporary theories, seem to think you can carry current account deficits into infinity as long as there is willing financial/capital investment.
 

spacejamz

Lifer
Mar 31, 2003
10,391
701
126
Yes, I'm 100% positive. The US can print its own currency, the US is not trapped in a pseudo gold standard, the US has a better debt/GDP ratio, the US has a far more dynamic economy, the US is experiencing growth instead of massive depression, the US' borrowing costs are among the lowest in recorded history, the US isn't facing intractable balance of payments issues enforced by treaty, etc, etc, etc.

People who compare the US to Greece do not understand the problems of either.
Broke is broke, no matter what language you speak...

Print our own money? How long can we keep doing this for? Pretty sad that you and Obama cannot see that this is just going to cause bigger headaches down the road if you don't cut spending now.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
72,593
23,704
136
The ECB balance sheet is now about 33% bigger than the Fed's, how is that a 'pseudo gold standard."

NPV of pension liabilities + Total debt outstanding to GDP is actually higher in the US, not lower. They also have more debt on the Federal level, we would have to add in the states to make a good comparison between the two countries.

The balance of payments issue is an interesting one. Classical ideas would have said we were screwed a long time ago. More contemporary theories, seem to think you can carry current account deficits into infinity as long as there is willing financial/capital investment.
It's a pseudo gold standard because Greece does not have control over the currency it uses. Even if you counted all US State debt, Greece's debt/GDP ratio is higher. Greece's numbers do not include their regional debts, btw.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
72,593
23,704
136
Broke is broke, no matter what language you speak...

Print our own money? How long can we keep doing this for? Pretty sad that you and Obama cannot see that this is just going to cause bigger headaches down the road if you don't cut spending now.
It sure isn't. Very few economists advocate spending cuts now because it is an exceptionally poor economic idea. The vast majority I have seen call for either holding current spending steady or increasing it in the short term, while enacting long term entitlement and structural debt reform.

For a good case study in what happens when you cut spending now, go look at the divergent economic paths of the US and the UK. Austerity in the short term not only creates additional economic problems, but it has proven to be self defeating by lowering GDP so much that it doesn't even end up closing deficits.
 

The-Noid

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2005
3,117
0
76
It's a pseudo gold standard because Greece does not have control over the currency it uses. Even if you counted all US State debt, Greece's debt/GDP ratio is higher. Greece's numbers do not include their regional debts, btw.
and how much is the regional debt? I know, do you? The regional debt is about 4% of GDP. It's around $4T in the US.

Greece like most Euros has more financial debt, compared to bonds so the 4% is harder to track down than the $4T US number.

Again, NPV of pension liabilities is much bigger. That is the killer.

Also, are you really arguing we are printing money to fund our deficit. In a sense the Fed is supposed to be independent on fiscal issues, in the same way the ECB is. The ECB has helped Greece via the SMP, LTRO and unlimited bank liquidity. There is no pseudo gold standard. Balance sheets that expand to 30% of GDP is not a pseudo gold standard.
 
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