Has technology peaked?

[Champo41]

Sort of an interesting question I was thinking about the other night...

Basically, when HDTV becomes the standard in a few years (maybe more), what will come after that? Do you think there will be a format better than digital? The naked eye can only see so much...

 

[SmiZ]

"Technology" is a very broad term. In that sense, I would say deffinately not.

If you're talking about solely video display technology then I think there's still some room for advancement. Completely wireless cable? Take your TV anywhere in the house and not have to worry about running cable, similar to wireless LANs.

Who knows, but if history has taught us anything, it's that we haven't seen nothin' yet.

 

[vi edit]

Or the "ultimate wireless" - the signal is broadcast and I pick up the signal with a receiver implanted in my head.

I can flip channels just by thinking about it.

It would totally bypass any analog signals - by analog, I mean the way your eyes perceive the image and then transmit it to your brain.

 

[MC]

it will never be!

same question had been asked five years ago!

 

[Windogg]

3D Hologram Projectors?

Remember the Patent Officer that quit because, "Everthing that could possibly be invented has been invented"? Famous last words.

Windogg

 

[shifrbv]

I don't think by any means that technology (what we may discover) has peaked. However, what I do believe is that R&D is way down and companies aren't bringing as much to market. All the easy stuff has already been discovered. Invention of higher technology takes alot of money, therefore we're seeing a slowdown. The markets are now being flooded with rehashes of older computer technology (internet appliances, hand-held PCs, software, etc.). Very few new, original products are out there right now.

 

[HappyFace]

<< Very few new, original products are out there right now. >>



Very true. It seems one company comes up with a good idea, and all the tiny sheep companies fall in line. We need more innovation, come on, how hard could it be to invent a totally new technology product!!

 

[Raspewtin]

A lot of new research in some fields such as biotechnology, etc have longer cycles of development than semiconductors (on average). So in some fields, I think we'll see long periods between massive innovations, than a flood of new technology in a short period of time.

 

[Windogg]

We must also take into account what kind of technology. Consumer technology is only a small portion of the big picture. The area that matters is manufacturing technology. Machines and processes will constantly be getting bigger, better, faster, cheaper because companies are always trying to find a way to do it better. Sure we won't get getting some exotic new television but newer technology will make currenty TVs bigger, sharper, easier to use, more efficient, lighter, and more feature packed.

Windogg

 

[SmiZ]

How long had computers been around before you and I started using them?? How old are the ideas of the internet? (not Al Gore's internet) There are new products in developement, it just takes them awhile to get to the mainstream user. I remember when a cell phone transponder took up an entire car trunk, now I've got a nokia that fits in my palm.

 

[geno]

Sure, we can always upgrate and optimize what we have, let's take HDTV for example: We may not be able to improve upon the picture sharpness of HDTV by too much like you said, but we can always improve the overall package, making the TV lighter, more efficient, brighter and more defined colors, integration with other appliances such as the PC. We can optimize many aspects of different products, and there's many different things we can think of.

 

[JellyBaby]

If technology has peaked at its current size it most definitely needs an enlargement.

 

[HappyFace]

EDIT: Never Mind

 

[shifrbv]

It does seem like some types of technologies are almost going backwards right now. Take automobiles, for instance. In my lifetime (the past 30 years), I have seen very few innovations/changes. In the 70's we had a GM van, the 80's a Pontiac Sunbird, and the 90's a Grand Am. The only noticeable change is that the item remains the same (maybe cars today have more plastic, but that's beside the point), but the prices keep increasing. I don't see any technological advances here. Safety and gas mileage used to be the big issues. Safety has probably stayed the same or slightly improved while gas mileage has pretty much stayed the same or even gone backwards. Outside of the plastic, the car I drive today is pretty much the same as I have always been in for the last 20 years.

As for computers, look at software. I believe it's another area where there's actually been a decline. Where are all of the artificial intelligence programs, why is it that almost every web page still looks the same as 3 years ago? Why does Microsoft keep adding eye-candy to their old programs and releasing them as &quot;new&quot; versions? It seems like there's no creativity in the software business anymore.

Medicines are another area. Many companies are not willing to commit their time and resources to develop miracle cures for some of the more obscure diseases. Instead, they want to focus on things which will make them a quick but steady profit. They don't want miracle pills that you take one time and your illness goes away, but rather something which you'll have to take for the rest of your life. Look at Eli Lilly. They're drug Prozac (which costs $10 a pill but takes just a few cents to manufacture) has been out for quite some time. Yet, when the patent is about to expire and others want to start manufacturing it, what does Lilly do to ensure they keep the profit, they start trying to patent the manufacturing process. Same thing with the internet patents (remember the Amazon shopping cart?).

While there have been innovations, I'm simply making the point that some things are starting to slow down. And with the frenzy of absurd patents trying to be implemented, I think it's starting to be evidence for this.