Harvard study finds NO bias against blacks in police shootings

[werepossum]

This really surprised me. A Harvard study finds that there IS a racial bias in how quickly officers resort to hands-on non-lethal force with blacks, but finds NO bias against blacks in police shootings. In fact, an unarmed man not attacking the officer is more likely to be shot by police if he's white than if he's black.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/07/study-finds-no-bias-in-cops-use-of-lethal-force.html

Economist Roland G. Fryer, the youngest African-American to receive tenure at Harvard, launched the study in response to the police killings of Michael Brown and Freddie Gray.

“You know, protesting is not my thing,” Fryer told the New York Times. “But data is my thing. So I decided that I was going to collect a bunch of data and try to understand what really is going on when it comes to racial differences in police use of force.”

Fryer’s study is based off detailed police reports from ten major police departments in Texas, Florida, and California. He and his student researchers examined 1,332 shootings between 2000 and 2015, and attempted to isolate race as a variable. Which is to say, they sorted police shootings by context — i.e. "at the scene of robbery," "at night," "after being attacked by suspect," etc. … — and looked at whether cops were quicker to fire at black civilians, when controlling for those contexts.

Fryer calls the results of this inquiry the “most surprising” of his career: The study found no significant evidence of racial bias when controlling for context, and showed that officers were actually more likely to shoot suspects who hadn’t attacked them when those suspects were white.

These findings are a valuable contribution to our understanding of race and policing in America, but they should be ingested with a few grains of salt:

1. The results rely, in part, on the accuracy of police reports. Such reports have been contradicted by video recordings in some of the highest-profile fatal police shootings of the last few years.

2. The cities examined are not demographically representative of the country as a whole. Most of the municipalities have a larger-than-average population of African-Americans. It’s possible that in jurisdictions where the black population is smaller, and thus less politically powerful, police use lethal force in a more racially biased manner.

3. Most critically, the study does not address the way racial bias determines who gets stopped by police in the first place. While African-Americans do commit a disproportionate rate of the nation’s violent crimes, this does not fully account for the rate at which police stop them. African-American drivers are 31 percent more likely to be pulled over by police than are white drivers, according to Justice Department statistics. This is not due to a disproportionate affinity for speeding among the black community — whites are actually more likely to be pulled over for exceeding the speed limit, while black drivers are flagged at a higher rate for vehicle defects and record checks. African-Americans are also twice as likely to be pulled over for no explicit reason whatsoever.

The Justice Department’s investigation into Ferguson, Missouri, found that the city's police department enforced the law in a manner designed to maximize revenue rather than public safety. In other words, the department aggressively policed petty crimes in the city’s black community so as to generate enough fines to keep the government running. In Ferguson, police didn’t disproportionately stop black residents because of their higher rate of violent crime, but because of their lower level of political power. (A mayor that directed police to aggressively shake down wealthy white residents would be unlikely to retain office.) As Jack Hitt wrote in Mother Jones last year, the Ferguson PD is far from the only department in the nation to overpolice black communities for fiscal responsibility’s sake. For African-Americans, the cost of funding local government in this manner is measured in more than dollars and cents.

Besides the caveats inserted by the ever-liberal New York Magazine, it seems the take-away here is that blacks make up a plurality of suspects shot because they have way more interactions with police. That brings to mind two points. The first, on which NYMag touches, is that there may be a LOT of communities with more in common with Ferguson than we suspect, communities where the local government sees its citizens as sheep to be sheared for financial gain. That would be in line with the explosion of confiscation without charges; it might be easier to get $100k by confiscating two $50k Mercedes, but it's a much more sure thing to get it by confiscating fifty $2k automobiles, since the guy driving a car which will bring two grand at auction probably has no political power and can't afford a lawyer to fight it.

The second that springs to my mind is enforcement of the plethora of minor laws, a la Eric Garner. Blacks are less likely to be caught speeding but far more likely to be pulled over for broken tail lights, missing mirrors, etc., not to mention things like illegally selling single cigarettes or simple possession. More encounters = more chances for something to go pear-shaped = more of a sense of persecution = more hostility toward cops during a stop = more chance to be shot.

So maybe instead of fixing the cops per se, we need to be fixing higher higher, so that they are tasked more with solving murders and robberies and burglaries and less with enforcing penny ante bullshit.

 

[Gonad the Barbarian]

So maybe instead of fixing the cops per se, we need to be fixing higher higher, so that they are tasked more with solving murders and robberies and burglaries and less with enforcing penny ante bullshit.

I think that's definitely a contributing factor, and Chief David Brown hit on something similar today:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/david-brown-death-threats-dallas-police-shooting

Brown said that while the Dallas community, mayor and other city officials have given his department “all the support we need,” he believes Americans demand too much of local police departments.

“We're asking cops to do too much in this country. We are. We're just asking us to do too much," he said. "Every societal failure, we put it off on the cops to solve. Not enough mental health funding. Let the cop handle it. Not enough drug addiction funding. Let's give it to the cops."

“Here in Dallas, we've got a loose dog problem,” Brown went on. “Let's have the cops chase loose dogs. You know, schools fail. Give it to the cops. Seventy percent of the African-American community is being raised by single women. Let's give it to the cops to solve that, as well. That's too much to ask. Policing was never meant to solve all of those problems.”

I'm really liking this guy.

And I like you too 'possum. <makes hand heart>

 

[glenn1]

This really surprised me. A Harvard study finds that there IS a racial bias in how quickly officers resort to hands-on non-lethal force with blacks, but finds NO bias against blacks in police shootings. In fact, an unarmed man not attacking the officer is more likely to be shot by police if he's white than if he's black.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/07/study-finds-no-bias-in-cops-use-of-lethal-force.html



Besides the caveats inserted by the ever-liberal New York Magazine, it seems the take-away here is that blacks make up a plurality of suspects shot because they have way more interactions with police. That brings to mind two points. The first, on which NYMag touches, is that there may be a LOT of communities with more in common with Ferguson than we suspect, communities where the local government sees its citizens as sheep to be sheared for financial gain. That would be in line with the explosion of confiscation without charges; it might be easier to get $100k by confiscating two $50k Mercedes, but it's a much more sure thing to get it by confiscating fifty $2k automobiles, since the guy driving a car which will bring two grand at auction probably has no political power and can't afford a lawyer to fight it.

The second that springs to my mind is enforcement of the plethora of minor laws, a la Eric Garner. Blacks are less likely to be caught speeding but far more likely to be pulled over for broken tail lights, missing mirrors, etc., not to mention things like illegally selling single cigarettes or simple possession. More encounters = more chances for something to go pear-shaped = more of a sense of persecution = more hostility toward cops during a stop = more chance to be shot.

So maybe instead of fixing the cops per se, we need to be fixing higher higher, so that they are tasked more with solving murders and robberies and burglaries and less with enforcing penny ante bullshit.

No argument about the bolded but it does mean the net impact is even more focus on minorities since they commit these crimes in disproportionate numbers. IIRC around 6 or 7 times more blacks commit and/or are victims of homicide than whites. And that number is strictly based upon the objective amount of dead bodies rather than being inflated by the subjective number of people who commit the crime but are more or less likely to be arrested for it on racial reasons. I guess we could compensate by likewise focusing on what could arguably be crimes disproportionately committed by non-minorities (IDK, insider stock trading? feel free to jump in with suggestions) but I don't know if that helps things any.

 

[senseamp]

1. The results rely, in part, on the accuracy of police reports.

How many police reports honestly admit they shot an unarmed person who was not attacking the officer? Wouldn't that be like admitting murder?
I do agree that we need to reduce hostile police interaction with minorities by winding down the drug war, for example. That would go a long way to reducing this problem.

 

[Cozarkian]

How many police reports honestly admit they shot an unarmed person who was not attacking the officer? Wouldn't that be like admitting murder?
...

No, it would include cases where the cop reasonably believed the person was holding or reaching for a gun but it later turns out the person was unarmed (or maybe had a toy gun).

 

[Gonad the Barbarian]

No, it would include cases where the cop reasonably believed the person was holding or reaching for a gun but it later turns out the person was unarmed (or maybe had a toy gun).

Or reasonably argued after the fact in the report.

 

[senseamp]

No, it would include cases where the cop reasonably believed the person was holding or reaching for a gun but it later turns out the person was unarmed (or maybe had a toy gun).

That's subjective.

 

[Double Trouble]

Very interesting read. It kinda throws cold water on the whole "Black Lives Matter" movement.

 

[Gonad the Barbarian]

It really doesn't. Harvard study finds NO bias against blacks in police shootings (according to police reports).

 

[Double Trouble]

It really doesn't. Harvard study finds NO bias against blacks in police shootings (according to police reports).

If there is no bias against blacks in police shootings, how can there logically be a basis for a movement about black lives and not the lives of other people? If this study is accurate, it pretty much pulls the rug right out from under the movement.

 

[Svnla]

I am going to put this here.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...han-black-people-killed-by-police-yes-but-no/

.

 

[Gonad the Barbarian]

If there is no bias against blacks in police shootings, how can there logically be a basis for a movement about black lives and not the lives of other people? If this study is accurate, it pretty much pulls the rug right out from under the movement.

It's not. It gives three reasons why.

 

[michal1980]

It really doesn't. Harvard study finds NO bias against blacks in police shootings (according to police reports).

If there is no bias against blacks in police shootings, how can there logically be a basis for a movement about black lives and not the lives of other people? If this study is accurate, it pretty much pulls the rug right out from under the movement.

the nytimes had a bit more.

But it gives a reason why a BLM exists - IMHO, its the media, both LMSM, and social

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/12/u...police-use-of-force-but-not-in-shootings.html

So the number of actual encounters are 18% greater , but the the public thinks they are actually 170% to 350% greater.

Reality doesn't match the coverage.

 

[child of wonder]

How long until the researcher is tarred and feathered as a racist? That seems to be the inevitable outcome if you disagree with anything SJW's or BLM say.

 

[Gonad the Barbarian]

the nytimes had a bit more.

But it gives a reason why a BLM exists - IMHO, its the media, both LMSM, and social

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/12/u...police-use-of-force-but-not-in-shootings.html

So the number of actual encounters are 18% greater , but the the public thinks they are actually 170% to 350% greater.

Reality doesn't match the coverage.

Blacks gets worse treatment right down the list until it comes to getting shot. Yeah, that checks out.

 

[Blue_Max]

How long until the researcher is tarred and feathered as a racist? That seems to be the inevitable outcome if you disagree with anything SJW's or BLM say.

*gasp* That, there's HATE speech booaayhh!


:sneaky:
http://louderwithcrowder.com/watch-lauren-southern-make-a-sjw-cry-with-words/

 

[werepossum]

I think that's definitely a contributing factor, and Chief David Brown hit on something similar today:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/david-brown-death-threats-dallas-police-shooting

I'm really liking this guy.

And I like you too 'possum. <makes hand heart>

Awe, thanks buddy, right back at you.

I too have been impressed by Chief David Brown.

No argument about the bolded but it does mean the net impact is even more focus on minorities since they commit these crimes in disproportionate numbers. IIRC around 6 or 7 times more blacks commit and/or are victims of homicide than whites. And that number is strictly based upon the objective amount of dead bodies rather than being inflated by the subjective number of people who commit the crime but are more or less likely to be arrested for it on racial reasons. I guess we could compensate by likewise focusing on what could arguably be crimes disproportionately committed by non-minorities (IDK, insider stock trading? feel free to jump in with suggestions) but I don't know if that helps things any.

I think it would help immensely if blacks saw police attempting to solve shootings of black folks (even where the cops get zero cooperation) rather than pulling over every black driver with a broken taillight or dirty license plate, or blacks selling loose cigarettes, putting away a little plastic bag, etc.

Very interesting read. It kinda throws cold water on the whole "Black Lives Matter" movement.

Not really. This study specifically equalizes every facet, such as whether the police were at the scene of a crime, time of day or night, nature of the call, etc. Yet blacks are still shot by police in disproportionate numbers, and some of this is due to factors which are not necessarily in society's best interests. All lives matter, and assuming our goal is to minimize unnecessary deaths of all colors, then blacks are still a rich veins of things which could profitably be changed.

 

[agent00f]

the nytimes had a bit more.

But it gives a reason why a BLM exists - IMHO, its the media, both LMSM, and social

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/12/u...police-use-of-force-but-not-in-shootings.html

So the number of actual encounters are 18% greater , but the the public thinks they are actually 170% to 350% greater.

Reality doesn't match the coverage.

It's worth reading a bit further than you did, or unblock that part of the article that didn't quite make it into your head, whichever the case may be.

The study finds a massive discrepancy between the harassment reported by officers and that by citizens subject to it. Now, it could be that white people love getting manhandled or such, or more likely that there's significant underreporting because typical everyday behavior is less noteworthy.

 

[michal1980]

It's worth reading a bit further than you did, or unblock that part of the article that didn't quite make it into your head, whichever the case may be.

The study finds a massive discrepancy between the harassment reported by officers and that by citizens subject to it. Now, it could be that white people love getting manhandled or such, or more likely that there's significant underreporting because typical everyday behavior is less noteworthy.

looks like none of the article made into your head.

 

[werepossum]

Some other links: Coffey Anderson's video on how to survive being stopped by police.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...affic-stops/?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.55d86d7315c4

The steps, according to Anderson, are as follows:

1. Turn off the car.
2. Put your ID on dash.
3. Place both hands on steering wheel.
4. Keep the radio volume low. (I'd say radio OFF.)

“At the end of the day, the policeman wants to go home safely. We want to get home safely,” he says on camera. “Even if the cop is having a bad day, you have to go home. You gotta make it home. You’re needed. This is a big deal.”

An example of (A) over-policing or (B) Philando Castile getting nailed by statistics.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...5-11e6-a76d-3550dba926ac_story.html?tid=a_inl

MINNEAPOLIS — When Philando Castile saw the flashing lights in his rearview mirror the night he got shot, it wasn’t unusual. He had been pulled over at least 52 times in recent years in and around the Twin Cities and given citations for minor offenses including speeding, driving without a muffler and not wearing a seat belt.

He was assessed at least $6,588 in fines and fees, although more than half of the total 86 violations were dismissed, court records show.

Was Castile an especially bad driver or just unlucky? Or was he targeted by officers who single out black motorists like him for such stops, as several of his family members have alleged?

The answer may never be known, but Castile’s stop for a broken tail light Wednesday ended with him fatally shot by a suburban St. Paul police officer, and Castile’s girlfriend livestreaming the chilling aftermath.

The shooting has added a new impetus to a national debate on racial profiling; a day after Castile died, a black Army veteran killed five officers in Dallas at a demonstration over Castile’s killing and another fatal police shooting, in Louisiana.

The Castile video “is pretty horrific,” said Gavin Kearney, who in 2003 co-authored a report to the Minnesota Legislature on racial profiling in the state. “There are things we don’t know about it. But we know there are certain assumptions and biases — whether explicit or implicit — about black men that affect how police officers interpret their actions. And we know white drivers are less likely to be pulled over.”

Court records dating to 2002 show Castile, a 32-year-old school cafeteria supervisor, averaged more than three traffic stops per year and received citations for misdemeanors or petty misdemeanors.

Many charges were dismissed, but Castile pleaded guilty to some, mostly for driving after his license was revoked and driving with no proof of insurance. However, those two charges also were the most frequently dismissed, along with failing to wear a seat belt.

The records show no convictions for more serious crimes.

No recent information is available on the racial breakdown of drivers stopped or ticketed by police in Falcon Heights, the mostly white suburb where the shooting occurred, or in other Minnesota towns. Minnesota is not among the handful of states that require police to keep such data.

And finally, Chris Rock's version of Anderson's video: How to not get your ass kicked by the police.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRW9G2uRRRc

 

[michal1980]

Blacks gets worse treatment right down the list until it comes to getting shot. Yeah, that checks out.

if it doesn't fit the message we must ignore.

 

[agent00f]

looks like none of the article made into your head.

My opinion is informed by some understanding of how to compare big and small numbers. In sum, relatively few people are actually shot by the police, but many more are harassed or handled, perhaps leading to the asymmetric arrest/prosecution figures. This leads to a justifiable concern or even fear that mistreatment will result in the worst case scenario, making that a symbolic case of a larger picture that is evidently too complex for folks not concerned about it.

Also, many here fail to recognize these numbers are normalize for # of encounters, and black people get encountered a lot more often for some reason.

 

[agent00f]

Some other links: Coffey Anderson's video on how to survive being stopped by police.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...affic-stops/?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.55d86d7315c4


An example of (A) over-policing or (B) Philando Castile getting nailed by statistics.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...5-11e6-a76d-3550dba926ac_story.html?tid=a_inl


And finally, Chris Rock's version of Anderson's video: How to not get your ass kicked by the police.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRW9G2uRRRc

Always amusing when white folks are puzzled why minorities often have problems they don't.

 

[michal1980]

My opinion is informed by some understanding of how to compare big and small numbers. In sum, relatively few people are actually shot by the police, but many more are harassed or handled, perhaps leading to the asymmetric arrest/prosecution figures. This leads to a justifiable concern or even fear that mistreatment will result in the worst case scenario, making that a symbolic case of a larger picture that is evidently too complex for folks not concerned about it.

Also, many here fail to recognize these numbers are normalize for # of encounters, and black people get encountered a lot more often for some reason.

You obviously don't understand numbers.

based on records blacks are harassed physically by cops 18% more. But the public generally thinks that the number is almost 10x larger.

But like like a good liberal, reality isn't bad enough, we must exaggerate the problem 10 fold.

 

[brianmanahan]

i have often wondered if the race of the cops more closely matched the areas they patrolled, if it would have an effect in negating some of these issues