Hard Drive Reliability Stats for Q3 2015 (Backblaze)

Elixer

Lifer
May 7, 2002
10,371
762
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They compare 2013/14/15...
Always fun to look at some stats! :)

https://www.backblaze.com/blog/hard-drive-reliability-q3-2015/

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The notes are telling as well:
The Western Digital 1TB drives in use are nearly 6 years old on average. There are several drives with nearly 7 years of service. It wasn’t until 2015 that the failure rate rose above the annual average for all drives. This makes sense given the “bathtub” curve of drive failure where drives over 4 years start to fail at a higher rate. Still the WD 1TB drives have performed well for a long time.
and
4TB drives, regardless of their manufacturer, are performing well. The 2.10% overall failure rate means that over the course of a year, we have to replace only one drive in a Storage Pod filled with these drives. In other words, on average, a pod comes down for maintenance once a year due to drive failure. The math: 2% is 1 out of 50. There are 45 drives in a pod, so about once a year, one of those 45 drives, on average, will fail. Yes, the math is approximate, but you get the idea.
and
6TB drives, especially the Seagate drives, are also performing well, on par with the 4TB drives so far. The 6TB drives give us 270TB Storage Pods, giving us 50% more storage at the same overall cost per GB.
There is more at the link, so, read up on those as well.
 

Dahak

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2000
3,752
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91
most likley those greens where harvested out of the cheap external usb drives

Also it should be noted, in this and other backblaze reports that

1 - they are using the consumer drives in a way they are not designed for

2 - I believe they changed the way they mount the harddrives sometime after i believe it was in 2014, cant seem to find the blog where they redesigned the pods

So those two things may inflate/cause more failures.

But still I would keep this info in consideration when looking at drives.
 

MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,919
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most likley those greens where harvested out of the cheap external usb drives

Also it should be noted, in this and other backblaze reports that

1 - they are using the consumer drives in a way they are not designed for

2 - I believe they changed the way they mount the harddrives sometime after i believe it was in 2014, cant seem to find the blog where they redesigned the pods

So those two things may inflate/cause more failures.

But still I would keep this info in consideration when looking at drives.
Tweaktown wrote up a piece on the Backblaze reports.

http://www.tweaktown.com/articles/6...bility-myth-the-real-story-covered/index.html
 

BFG10K

Lifer
Aug 14, 2000
22,709
3,004
126
1 - they are using the consumer drives in a way they are not designed for
The same thing applies to the other vendors' drives.

most likley those greens where harvested out of the cheap external usb drives
The same thing applies to the other vendors' drives.
 

JimmiG

Platinum Member
Feb 24, 2005
2,024
112
106
Well I can provide more anecdotal evidence against Seagate, and especially the ST3000DM001. I have desk drawer full of failed ST3000DM001's pulled from our NAS at work. They're being replaced with 3 and 4 TB WD Reds

Meanwhile only one 1TB WD has failed so far, in spite of those having been in service for much longer.
 

Topweasel

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2000
5,437
1,659
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Yeah I don't know why people challenge ST3000DM001 results now a days. Just like the DeathStars almost a decade ago. As major users of both, had been using DS GXP's from 30-160GB), and currently have 3 ST3000DM001's in use that I am slowly moving data away from. While I haven't had a failure on either of those types of drives there is more than just anecdotal evidence that they had severe design faults. It would be like challenging that the RROD wasn't a real issue with the Xbox360 (or really the solder connections), again something I can recognize even though my Launch day 360 still works.

That said recognizing a problem with a drive means you also know when they have moved past the issue. I have bought several HGST drives since the DeathStar days, and the 6TB drive I got to move some of my data of is a Seagate.
 

smitbret

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2006
3,382
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81

I read the Tweaktown piece and while some of their points may be slightly correct, they haven't really reported anything that everyone doesn't already know because BackBlaze freely shares all of their info.

By Backblaze's own admission some of the sample pools are too small. They also have made it perfectly clear that different drives are in different pods. If Storage Pod v1 was so awful then why was it so awful to only Seagate drives. They have 1TB WD drives that have a higher average age (almost 6 years now) than the "bad" Seagates. The WD Greens have failure rates in the single digits while the Seagates are in double and even triple digits. Pretty sure they were all in v1 pods.

Backblaze is also pretty clear that they understand that these drives weren't meant for this kind of workload. I for one, though, love the idea of huge sample sizes in harsh environments to help reveal which ones are the strongest and the weakest. Backblaze undoubtedly reveals this. It's not like they pamper the HGST drives, fanning them with palm leaves and feeding them grapes while using the Seagates as door stops. No way would expect to see the same failure rate as they see.

If we look at just 3TB drives it's a lot like the old 1TB comparisons. The HGST drives are actually older than the notorious Seagate drives, increasing the likelihood that they were stuck in v1 or v2 pods. Yet, their failure rate is closer to 0% than the Seagates are to 25%.

Only a Seagate apologist could deny that the HGST drives are plainly more durable. Does the BackBlaze data mean that the Seagates will fail more often in the home use environment? No, and they never claimed they would. But if my data is important then it might be worth the extra $15, just in case. Personally, I have migrated to Toshiba drives since they are only about $5 more but seem more durable (even though the sample size is quite small).

I am not a brand loyalist. I started my my server four years ago with 3x2TB Seagates. I have since added a couple of WD Greens (1TB and 2TB) and 4 Toshibas (1x2TB and 2x3TB). None of them have failed, yet. Get another year under their belts and those 6TB Seagates are looking pretty good if they don't start dropping out.
 

Elixer

Lifer
May 7, 2002
10,371
762
126
What really needs to be done is, for the recovery places to open up these suckers, and show us why they fail, what makes a 'good' HD, and what makes a 'bad' one.

The SMART data from data farms would be amazing to look at, and also tell us how accurate SMART is at predicting failure. In my case, most of the time a HD just fails, no SMART warning or anything.
 

MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
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I read the Tweaktown piece and while some of their points may be slightly correct, they haven't really reported anything that everyone doesn't already know because BackBlaze freely shares all of their info.

By Backblaze's own admission some of the sample pools are too small. They also have made it perfectly clear that different drives are in different pods. If Storage Pod v1 was so awful then why was it so awful to only Seagate drives. They have 1TB WD drives that have a higher average age (almost 6 years now) than the "bad" Seagates. The WD Greens have failure rates in the single digits while the Seagates are in double and even triple digits. Pretty sure they were all in v1 pods.

Backblaze is also pretty clear that they understand that these drives weren't meant for this kind of workload. I for one, though, love the idea of huge sample sizes in harsh environments to help reveal which ones are the strongest and the weakest. Backblaze undoubtedly reveals this. It's not like they pamper the HGST drives, fanning them with palm leaves and feeding them grapes while using the Seagates as door stops. No way would expect to see the same failure rate as they see.

If we look at just 3TB drives it's a lot like the old 1TB comparisons. The HGST drives are actually older than the notorious Seagate drives, increasing the likelihood that they were stuck in v1 or v2 pods. Yet, their failure rate is closer to 0% than the Seagates are to 25%.

Only a Seagate apologist could deny that the HGST drives are plainly more durable. Does the BackBlaze data mean that the Seagates will fail more often in the home use environment? No, and they never claimed they would. But if my data is important then it might be worth the extra $15, just in case. Personally, I have migrated to Toshiba drives since they are only about $5 more but seem more durable (even though the sample size is quite small).

I am not a brand loyalist. I started my my server four years ago with 3x2TB Seagates. I have since added a couple of WD Greens (1TB and 2TB) and 4 Toshibas (1x2TB and 2x3TB). None of them have failed, yet. Get another year under their belts and those 6TB Seagates are looking pretty good if they don't start dropping out.

I'm not advocating either way. The Backblaze data is enough to move me away from the Seagate drives, given that the alternatives aren't any more expensive. I actually just bought a couple 3TB Toshiba drives as well to use in my home server, given the lack of any real price difference.

I also like the idea of a huge sample size, but as you say the added failure in their specific use case does not necessarily correlate to failure numbers in consumer drives. A drive from manufacturer X could have a longer life in a client workload, better performance, etc than Brand Y, but be more susceptible to continuous high levels of vibration. If you use them in an extremely high vibration environment X would fail at a significantly higher rate relative to Y than you'd see in a consumer environment.

Similarly, neodymium magnets are graded by strength and (effectively) a temperature rating. Magnets with the highest strengths aren't available in the higher temperature ranges. Manufacturer Y might have went with a smaller, higher strength magnet with a lower temperature rating than manufacturer X in a client drive, with a standard use in mind for such a drive. If those drives are used in atypical applications that expose them to higher than designed for temperatures that could cause early failures on Y's drives, again without a corresponding link to the failure rate you'd see if they were used in consumer drives.

Not saying either of those happened or are even likely in this case, they're just off the cuff examples of trying to repurpose something for a different environment than it was designed dfor. The Tweaktown piece is useful simply because it provides a check for the people that would look the Backblaze data and say "Wow, those Seagates 3TB drives suck. They're 100x worse than Hitachi." Those drives likely still do have issues but unless a postmortem is done to see why they failed, it can't be concluded that that issue would be a concern tucked under someone's desk in a minitower PC. I'm guessing the majority just looked at the chart and moved on from there without delving too much into the background information.

It is funny to see the IBM drives do so well though, given that I still get a little squeamish and won't but a Deskstar even if it's the cheapest alternative. Old habits and all.
 
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WhoBeDaPlaya

Diamond Member
Sep 15, 2000
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1 - they are using the consumer drives in a way they are not designed for
Uhm, I think that a large number of us do use consumer drives in a manner other than directed ;)
See sig below
Dang. They didn't have any data for 4Tb WD green drives? Are red drives basically green ones with different firmware?
Running wdidle and setting the timer to 300 goes a decent way to keeping Greens alive.
Hell, a couple of the 4TB Reds that I have came from the factory with the 8s default setting :eek:
 
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mikeymikec

Lifer
May 19, 2011
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It is funny to see the IBM drives do so well though, given that I still get a little squeamish and won't but a Deskstar even if it's the cheapest alternative. Old habits and all.

Ditto, I had a DeathStar drive once :) Hitachi look like they're wiping the floor with the competition, yet it's odd that they're owned by WD. Takeovers like that must be weird in terms of internal politics, or perhaps the inner workings of HGST drives are different enough from WD drives that there's not much for WD to take from them, so they leave the production line running more or less intact.

I'd like to see how WD Black drives do in similar conditions though. Admittedly my own experiences with them are hardly spotless, but for me to think of switching to Hitachi in the (increasingly) rare event that I purchase HDDs over SSDs, it would be useful to know.
 

cruzinforit

Member
Mar 16, 2013
50
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Ditto, I had a DeathStar drive once :) Hitachi look like they're wiping the floor with the competition, yet it's odd that they're owned by WD. Takeovers like that must be weird in terms of internal politics, or perhaps the inner workings of HGST drives are different enough from WD drives that there's not much for WD to take from them, so they leave the production line running more or less intact.

I'd like to see how WD Black drives do in similar conditions though. Admittedly my own experiences with them are hardly spotless, but for me to think of switching to Hitachi in the (increasingly) rare event that I purchase HDDs over SSDs, it would be useful to know.


So you wouldn't buy likely the most reliable drives today because some IBM drives a couple decades ago had problems? Man this is like the grandpas who won't buy Chevy in 2015 because he had a '75 that "had a few problems so they are all junk".


I've never had good luck with Seagate drives, and I've long since stopped buying them. These days, I buy WD, old-new stock Hitachi Ultrastars, and Toshiba (all current toshiba desktop drives are the last-generation Hitachis before WD bought them)

My server has 3x 2TB WD Greens, and 3x 3TB Toshiba 3TB (Hitachi-style drives with a Toshiba stamp on the label).

Where I work, we also have had a lot of 250GB Seagates fail in Dell Optiplexes, but that being said far more come with Seagates than with WD or Toshibas. But the most reliable drives have to be the old WD 80gigs. We replaced tons of Optiplex 320, 330, and 360s. Most had the WD 80GB, and most still worked perfectly after 7-9 years of service. Some had Samsung and Seagates too, but largely WD were the dominant vendor
 
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mikeymikec

Lifer
May 19, 2011
21,137
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So you wouldn't buy likely the most reliable drives today because some IBM drives a couple decades ago had problems? Man this is like the grandpas who won't buy Chevy in 2015 because he had a '75 that "had a few problems so they are all junk".

TBH I didn't notice the bit where MrTeal wrote "won't buy a DeskStar even..", I could just relate to him being a little squeamish.

Since the DeskStar drive I bought that had the infamous sudden death problem, I had been buying a fair number of Seagate drives during the era that they were selling fairly cheap drives with lengthy (e.g. 5 years) warranties. I raised my eyebrow when they dropped the warranty to (IIRC) 3 years but continued buying them, then stopped when it dropped to 1. I personally haven't had many Seagate drives (that I've bought) fail, and while I've seen an increasing number of SG drives from OEM builds fail, I do think that OEMs flocked to Seagate in droves when SG dropped their prices further despite the lack of decent-length warranty, so the higher percentage of SG drives in the market would no doubt equal through to a higher number of failed SG drives that need replacing compared to alternatives.

I moved on to WD Black (5-yr warranty) after Seagate dropped the typical warranty down to a single year. Simply the idea of a device that people rely on to store their data only having a single year warranty is mind-boggling, let alone the fact that instead of having a culture of warranty lengths increasing (logically/hopefully) due to increased reliability, they're doing the opposite, it's not what I would regard as confidence building. Of course one should have backups etc, but apart from say RAID1 users, everything stops if the drive fails, and HDDs failing is hardly an uncommon occurrence.
 
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Charlie98

Diamond Member
Nov 6, 2011
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Simply the idea of a device that people rely on to store their data only having a single year warranty is mind-boggling, let alone the fact that instead of having a culture of warranty lengths increasing... ...due to increased reliability, they're doing the opposite, it's not what I would regard as confidence building...

Very well put.