Graphics card shipments to drop 30-40 percent in 2Q14 (Guru3D)

[3DVagabond]

LINK:

"Worldwide graphics card shipments are expected to decline 30-40% sequentially in the second quarter as vendors are suffering from excessive inventories, according to sources from graphics card players. Graphics card sales have been significantly impacted by Bitcoin's dropping demand recently, the sources said.

Graphics card players and channel retailers have suggested AMD and Nvidia cut prices to boost demand, but both GPU makers have instead focused on reducing their new GPU shipments to maintain profits and a balance between inventory and new shipments.

Trapped by existing inventories, most players' graphics card sales have been impacted since April, the sources noted."

Interesting and not good news for AMD, one would think. If sales are dropping due to a drop in the mining craze specifically, then that should effect AMD more.

 

[toyota]

prices are ridiculous and you have to watch carefully for any real deals. I have yet to see a lower price then for the 770 or 780 that I bought many months ago so checking deals daily really paid off.

the 770, 780 and 780 ti need massive cuts for sure along with a 2 or 3 game bundle.

 

[Paul98]

Not surprising considering the price and how old many of these cards are, and the price that cards like the 7950 and 7970 used to be.

If more are to be sold the prices have to drop by a good bit.

 

[blastingcap]

LINK:

Interesting and not good news for AMD, one would think. If sales are dropping due to a drop in the mining craze specifically, then that should effect AMD more.

AMD 79xx and R9 280/290 series cards should do ok because they are the cheapest way to get 3GB+ VRAM. The AMD 2GB-and-less cards may be in trouble, though. NV will be fine, too, as they have fat profits in professional video cards to fall back on.

But about gaming.

More and more games demand more than 2GB VRAM. Yes, I know Ubi will optimize Watch Dogs and that you can play with lower texture settings, etc. but the point is that at least one game already demands 3GB+. http://www.hardocp.com/article/2014/05/27/watch_dogs_amd_nvidia_gpu_performance_preview/3

"
The Radeon R9 290X GPU based video card has more VRAM on board, 4GB, and this seems to have given a different and better gameplay experience in this game. None of the performance drops experienced with the GTX 780 Ti happen on the Radeon R9 290X GPU based video card. The extra VRAM has made it so that performance is smooth with no discernible lag or stuttering while loading new scenes or new textures as we move about the game. This can really be felt as you drive through the city in the open world, it is much smoother on the Radeon R9 290X GPU based video card.

Due to those performance drops the XFX R9 290X DD video card is faster in minimum and average framerates and produces the best gameplay experience at "Ultra" texture settings. While the "performance" is playable on the GTX 780 Ti, the experience is choppy and inconsistent.

Ultra textures demand a lot of VRAM, and while 3GB may be required to allow it to work, it is certainly not the optimal solution for the smoothest performance."

And there was some other game, can't remember its name, that literally grayed out the max settings unless you had 3GB VRAM.

And the 100% next-gen console ports aren't even out yet. BF4, Titanfall, Watch Dogs, etc. still have one foot stuck in the old-gen consoles so I don't think they are pushing the envelope much.

Plus mods can strain VRAM even more. Skyrim is notorious for this, if you throw enough mods onto the game you can eat 3GB VRAM. And mods are coming out for Watch Dogs already: http://gamerant.com/watch-dogs-pc-graphics-mod-downgrade-fix/

So in sum, AMD will be fine because they offer the cheapest road to 3GB+ VRAM and NV will be fine because Tesla/Quadro.

 

[skipsneeky2]

prices are ridiculous and you have to watch carefully for any real deals. I have yet to see a lower price then for for the 770 or 780 that I bought many months ago so checking deals daily really paid off.

the 770, 780 and 780 ti need massive cuts for sure along with a 2 or 3 game bundle.

Yeah i still feel like a tool for buying a $400 2gb 770 back in August of last year, another 2 months or so and the rumored 290 would have been out and at the same price.

Oh well was the first time i had a gpu fail on me which was a 7850 and the gtx650 which i had for a short time in its place sucked badly, the rumors of the 290 being a possible Titan killer implied to me a $700 card which would have been out of my price range.

 

[3DVagabond]

Recycling the same old crap for years at a time doesn't help and if the article is to be believed they don't intend on reducing prices. If the 295X2 and Titan-Z are any sign they're raising the prices.

 

[f1sherman]

So in sum, AMD will be fine because they offer the cheapest road to 3GB+ VRAM and NV will be fine because Tesla/Quadro.

yeah, but mostly because guru3d (and them alone) picked up this news from... Digitimes D:

2nd hand mining gear may put some dent in AMD sales.
There might be few overly ambitious retailers with bumped up inventory,
but 30-40%?? LMAO

Nvidia... if anything their sales and prices have remained unaffected during mining ups and downs. PC gaming is VERY healthy and I see no reason for this to change.

 

[3DVagabond]

I think mining helped prop up all of the pricing. While AMD cards were so expensive not any reason for nVidia to cut prices. These new "duallies" with their extortionate prices aren't going to do anything for reducing prices on the single GPU cards either. Makes 2x Titan Blacks, or 2x 290/x look like bargains.

 

[Borealis7]

no kidding sales are going to drop. release some new cards already!

 

[ShintaiDK]

If those numbers hold. It will really put a fast stopper for future GPU development.

 

[Cloudfire777]

If those numbers hold. It will really put a fast stopper for future GPU development.

Actually, if anything it will speed up the release of new cards. Wouldnt surprise me if Nvidia and AMD is holding back because the current cards have sold so well because miners kept on buying them.

 

[Creig]

Let's see... Video card manufacturers are charging anywhere from $600 to $3,000 for performance video cards. I wonder why they have so many sitting unsold in warehouses?

/end sarcasm

I've said it for years. Simply refuse to pay their asking price and they will be forced to drop them to more reasonable levels. But there are apparently so many people out there with nigh-unlimited disposable income that they've helped drive the prices up and up and up.

So to those of you who consistently bought the latest and greatest high end cards as soon as they were released, thank so very much. This is the result.

 

[Paul98]

Let's see... Video card manufacturers are charging anywhere from $600 to $3,000 for performance video cards. I wonder why they have so many sitting unsold in warehouses?

/end sarcasm

I've said it for years. Simply refuse to pay their asking price and they will be forced to drop them to more reasonable levels. But there are apparently so many people out there with nigh-unlimited disposable income that they've helped drive the prices up and up and up.

So to those of you who consistently bought the latest and greatest high end cards as soon as they were released, thank so very much. This is the result.

This, when the R9/R7 series were coming out you could pick up a 7950 for ~170 new, 7970 for a little over 200. Now for the rebadge you are paying more even now. Mining was driving the prices up like crazy.

Those who are going to spend that money on those cards already have. The rest aren't going to spend their money on these over priced cards. A large price drop and new cards need to be released in order to start selling again.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Actually, if anything it will speed up the release of new cards. Wouldnt surprise me if Nvidia and AMD is holding back because the current cards have sold so well because miners kept on buying them.

That mining myth died long time ago.

And none of them have hold anything back. Their stockholders would burn them on the stakes if they did.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Let's see... Video card manufacturers are charging anywhere from $600 to $3,000 for performance video cards. I wonder why they have so many sitting unsold in warehouses?

/end sarcasm

I've said it for years. Simply refuse to pay their asking price and they will be forced to drop them to more reasonable levels. But there are apparently so many people out there with nigh-unlimited disposable income that they've helped drive the prices up and up and up.

So to those of you who consistently bought the latest and greatest high end cards as soon as they were released, thank so very much. This is the result.

Volume goes down, IC design cost goes up. I assume both AMD and nVidia have determined they cant raise the volume. So in this case they can only raise prices to keep offsetting the higher costs.

 

[DeathReborn]

I can see AMD losing from miners buying dedicated chips but gaining in Gaming and Nvidia being strong armed by high prices/low sales into lowering prices, even if only to clear out stock for 8x0 series.

That mining myth died long time ago.

And none of them have hold anything back. Their stockholders would burn them on the stakes if they did.

Wasn't AMD's supply of misc components the real reason for that? They just couldn't make enough to feed the beast & normal gamers?

 

[ShintaiDK]

Wasn't AMD's supply of misc components the real reason for that? They just couldn't make enough to feed the beast & normal gamers?

AMD lost marketshare and revenue in the "crazy mining period". And volume for both companies also dropped.

 

[Mand]

Not surprising at all, given that people know that the new gen is near.

 

[BrightCandle]

AMD lost marketshare and revenue in the "crazy mining period". And volume for both companies also dropped.

As far as I can tell the "crazy mining period" was actually a genuine shortage of components for the cards that restricted supply. OEMs were saying they couldn't get enough chips off AMD and were also having problems getting GRAM and the sales data and the steam survey suggests that during that period AMDs cards sold very poorly. Despite the news it does appear in hindsight it was a major business mess caused by AMD or silicon problems and not any great demand for their GPUs.

 

[HurleyBird]

If those numbers hold. It will really put a fast stopper for future GPU development.

I see it the other way around. GPU development has slowed to a near halt, so there are fewer and fewer people interesting in buying a new graphics card.

 

[3DVagabond]

Let's see... Video card manufacturers are charging anywhere from $600 to $3,000 for performance video cards. I wonder why they have so many sitting unsold in warehouses?

/end sarcasm

I've said it for years. Simply refuse to pay their asking price and they will be forced to drop them to more reasonable levels. But there are apparently so many people out there with nigh-unlimited disposable income that they've helped drive the prices up and up and up.

So to those of you who consistently bought the latest and greatest high end cards as soon as they were released, thank so very much. This is the result.

You're preaching to the brainwashed masses. You can probably almost picture the blank stares looking at their screens reading your post. The sheeple will continue to line up and take whatever the corporations are dishing out.

 

[Cloudfire777]

That mining myth died long time ago.

And none of them have hold anything back. Their stockholders would burn them on the stakes if they did.

Disproved by who?
If there is demand out there, why release new cards? Sales = Revenue = Stockholders happy?
Why not use the idle time to work and prep up everything 100% til the mining market bubble burst and then release a new round of cards?

 

[OILFIELDTRASH]

Let's see... Video card manufacturers are charging anywhere from $600 to $3,000 for performance video cards. I wonder why they have so many sitting unsold in warehouses?

/end sarcasm

I've said it for years. Simply refuse to pay their asking price and they will be forced to drop them to more reasonable levels. But there are apparently so many people out there with nigh-unlimited disposable income that they've helped drive the prices up and up and up.

So to those of you who consistently bought the latest and greatest high end cards as soon as they were released, thank so very much. This is the result.

I agree with this. Also the crazy high pricing turned me off of pc gaming completely. So much so that when I upgraded to windows 8 I haven't even installed a single pc game on my new install in 3 months. So now by their own greed they've pushed a potential customer out of the market completely. Good job Nvidia and AMD. Won't be sad to see your undoing and stock shares plummet. Hopefully those 1% of customers you've gouged will keep your businesses afloat for the foreseeable future.

 

[Wall Street]

Take a look at EBay. HD 7970 are $130. HD 7970 are $150. R9 280x are $160. No way you are getting $250-300 for their new equivalents because used prices are half off. I picked up a "new" (in an RMA box) HD 7970 off EBay this week. I know the risks of buying on EBay and all of the mining cards there. But for the price I will take my chances. At these used prices, the new stock simply can't compete.

The R9 290 series and anything NVidia is holding up much better in the second-hand market. My guess is that these have higher used prices because few people are upgrading from these parts, and they were not as widely used for mining.

 

[f1sherman]

I agree with this. Also the crazy high pricing turned me off of pc gaming completely. So much so that when I upgraded to windows 8 I haven't even installed a single pc game on my new install in 3 months. So now by their own greed they've pushed a potential customer out of the market completely. Good job Nvidia and AMD. Won't be sad to see your undoing and stock shares plummet.

HOLD TIGHT!