Got Gas? U.S. Economy to Worsen as Gas Prices Skyrocket

Page 99 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Its not hatefull and its not lying its merely the facts.
Don't get confused facing reality can be hard.

All right here from the Wall street journal
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120105-712141.html

Traders and analysts estimated that oil prices currently include a $5 to $10 premium on uncertainty over the Iran issue. Kyle Cooper, managing partner at IAF Energy Advisors in Houston, said that will continue to underpin U.S. prices near $100, even in the face of "horrific" U.S. demand data.

"The demand picture is dismal" in the U.S., Cooper said. "But from a trading standpoint, it is very difficult to be short," or take a market position that assumes a decline in prices. "

Fact is oil companies don't have much control over world reserves, Most Middle East govt's own the reserves same with Mexico or Venuzuala China and so on

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationalization_of_oil_supplies

The nationalisation of oil supplies refers to the process of deprivatization of oil production operations, generally in the purpose of obtaining more revenue from oil for oil producing countries. This process, which should not be confused with restrictions on crude oil exports, represents a significant turning point in the development of oil policy. Nationalization eliminates the concession system—in which private international companies control oil resources within oil-producing countries—and allows oil-producing countries to regain control. Once these countries become the sole owners of their resources, they have to decide how to maximize the net present value of their known stock of oil in the ground

The US only has production of about 1/8 of world production, consumes about 1/4
Do you not see the problem? You Bitch and moan about the prices but there is NOTHING to be done about it short of getting demand down to 10 mbpd because then its not a billion $ draining out of the economy everyday. Problem with that is cheap energy grows the economy and its relationship to GDP is well documented, more oil greater GDP

Why did Nigeria stop the subsidies on their domestic fuel? because its very expensive

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/8400183/nigeria-braces-for-fuel-strikes

"Economists say removing fuel subsidies was vital to allow the country to improve its woefully inadequate infrastructure and ease pressure on its foreign reserves"

You go on and on about how the tail wags the dog it isn't that way, you have to pay the market price or have a rich enough economy to subsidize it. DOUBLE bold this maybe it will sink in

Facts are everything you and your buds said for years and the new bullshit you are spouting is just that, bullshit.

For years you spewed there wasn't enough refining capacity because a new plant had not been built since 1979 in the U.S.

You ignored the fact that the existing plants have undergone years of upgrades negating the need for more capacity and also ignoring the fact that Americans have reduced their consumption of gas by no longer driving gas guzzling pick ups and SUV's. Yes there are still some out there but typically driven by the rich that money is no object anyway. The rest of real Americans that are impacted by the high gas prices have done everything they can to switch to more fuel efficient vehicles.

The fact that gasoline is now the number one export for the entire country really shows how full of shit your so called facts are.

Fact is gas is priced higher than it should be only because they can not because they have to.

It's 110% greed and power that Americans are getting to a point of not taking anymore. Your kind will find that out.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
Just saw the local news story that stated that 2011 was the most expensive year ever for US gas and 2012 is expected to be worse.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
1-9-2012

http://news.yahoo.com/oil-prices-climb-amid-fresh-iran-tensions-102148612.html

Oil prices climb amid fresh Iran tensions


US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta on Sunday warned that the United States would respond if Iran tried to close the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway at the entrance to the Gulf -- insisting that such a move would cross a "red line."

Panetta was seconded by General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who said Iran has the means to close the waterway, through which 20 percent of the world's oil passes.


"But we would take action and reopen the Straits," the general said on the same show, "Face the Nation."

The rising tensions have driven oil prices to eight-month highs above 100 dollars and sent jitters through the oil-rich Gulf amid growing fears of a spiral into conflict.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Downtown Chicago has already passed $4

1-6-2012

http://moneyland.time.com/2012/01/06/look-for-gas-prices-to-hit-4-a-gallon-by-summer-if-not-sooner/

Look for Gas Prices to Hit $4 a Gallon by Summer, If Not Sooner


The priciest year ever for gasoline has just ended. In 2011, the average gallon sold for an all-time high of over $3.50, and the average household spent $4,155 gassing up their vehicles—also a record. And if you were hoping for relief at the pump in 2012, it looks like you’re out of luck.

Gene LaDoucer, a spokesman for AAA North Dakota, told the Grand Forks Herald that it’s fairly standard for gas prices to spike 36% higher than the price on the first day of every year. Here’s what that’d mean in North Dakota:
“A 36-percent increase from where we are now would put prices in the neighborhood of $4.42,” LaDoucer said. “We certainly hope that’s not the case.”
For the year ahead as a whole, the experts at GasBuddy anticipate that the average price of a gallon in 2012 will surpass that of 2011. That’d mean that 2012 would be the priciest year ever for gas.
 

desy

Diamond Member
Jan 13, 2000
5,442
211
106
I personally don't think I've ever blamed refining capacity, I agree there is enough.
However refining disruption is not unheard of by nature, industrial accident, change over seasonal blends or maintenance cycles, thats business

Like I said so what if you export gas its a market driven commodity going for market price

http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2012/01/09/whats-so-bad-about-exporting-gasoline/

"Gasoline demand has fallen for several years via a combination of high prices killing off demand and the escalating ethanol mandate. Refiners can respond by shutting down more refineries and laying off workers, or they can seek other markets for their product.

"60% of the gasoline that is being exported is going to Mexico (a lower portion of distillates goes to Mexico as shown in the graph, but the bulk still goes to Central and South America), and most of the rest is going to Canada, Ecuador, and Brazil — countries that we import oil from. So we are importing oil from Mexico — the source of over 10% of our oil imports — and turning around and exporting back to them the higher value finished products. It creates jobs and tax revenue here in the U.S. That sounds like a bad deal for Mexico and a good deal for the U.S. So I don’t understand why people are upset. We could choose to stop selling gasoline to Mexico, in which case we could import less oil from them. But since gasoline is worth more than oil, that doesn’t seem like a very good business proposition"
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
I personally don't think I've ever blamed refining capacity, I agree there is enough.
However refining disruption is not unheard of by nature, industrial accident, change over seasonal blends or maintenance cycles, thats business

Like I said so what if you export gas its a market driven commodity going for market price

http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2012/01/09/whats-so-bad-about-exporting-gasoline/

"Gasoline demand has fallen for several years via a combination of high prices killing off demand and the escalating ethanol mandate. Refiners can respond by shutting down more refineries and laying off workers, or they can seek other markets for their product.

"60% of the gasoline that is being exported is going to Mexico (a lower portion of distillates goes to Mexico as shown in the graph, but the bulk still goes to Central and South America), and most of the rest is going to Canada, Ecuador, and Brazil — countries that we import oil from. So we are importing oil from Mexico — the source of over 10% of our oil imports — and turning around and exporting back to them the higher value finished products. It creates jobs and tax revenue here in the U.S. That sounds like a bad deal for Mexico and a good deal for the U.S. So I don’t understand why people are upset. We could choose to stop selling gasoline to Mexico, in which case we could import less oil from them. But since gasoline is worth more than oil, that doesn’t seem like a very good business proposition"
Exactly right.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
I understand gas is a global commodity and can be sold to the "highest bidder" but at what point of hurting the US economy with higher and higher gas prices should something be done about it (don't know what, just "something")?
 

Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
13,306
3
0
Downtown Chicago has already passed $4
Nope, mcowned, you just told another lie. http://www.chicagogasprices.com/ This is why I said I think you have borderline personality disorder. Your pathological lying you do without even realizing you're not telling the truth.
I understand gas is a global commodity and can be sold to the "highest bidder" but at what point of hurting the US economy with higher and higher gas prices should something be done about it (don't know what, just "something")?
You can't really say something should be done in this case without offering an idea. What can be done? Drill more? Annex Canada's oil sands? Market forces are certainly at play here, they are just not the only forces at play, but as people pay more in 2011 for gas than ever before, they also continue to buy more fuel efficient cars. They are slowly, like a stubborn horse led to water, drinking. Very slowly...
 

desy

Diamond Member
Jan 13, 2000
5,442
211
106
The something to do is A efficiency B substitution

Energy is going to cost more and if any country in the world is an energy importer they are in ever increasing trouble. Substituting with Ethanol or NG are viable options especially because they are home grown. Yes I know people have issues w both however both are in their infancy, cude oil has a 150yr head start to work out the bugs

Subsidizing fuel just creates indebtedness at a different level, it has to be paid for somewhere. If we don't import any then its not money out of the system, as much as everyone bitches about farm subsidies it just creates cheaper food and the money stays in the system because the US consumes over 80% of what it produces domestically

Here is a great article about the mess we are in
http://www.businessinsider.com/mauldin-2012-hard-choices-2012-1

"No country starts borrowing money with the thought that they will keep on borrowing until there is an economic collapse. It all starts with good intentions. No bank lends money not expecting to have it returned. Then things change over time. Since there seemed to be no problem with the current level of debt (and spending), why can't we increase it a little more?

There are countries that can keep their budgets and debt under control (like Switzerland and others). But politicians like to promise benefits today and pay for them with debt that future generations must incur (like the US and countries all over Europe). Or they try to spend their way to prosperity and growth (like Japan).

And of course they promise that "in the very near future" they will get the deficits under control. "We will grow our way out of the problem. We will limit the growth of spending next year, when the economy is better. We can always raise taxes on the rich. Or increase consumption taxes. Or create some taxes somewhere." Whatever it takes to convince the bond market to keep on funding their spending.

And so the choices to provide this benefit and that program, each justified by some reason and desired by some group of voters, add up over time. Everything goes well until there is a recession. Then revenues go down and costs go up, because unemployment benefits rise. But because the natural business cycle leads to recovery and growth, things soon get better and the game continues.

But then the accumulated debt becomes too much to handle when the next recession comes along. And bond investors lose confidence and the Bang Moment has arrived. Cochrane shows that there is no magic number or formula, no way to know in advance when that moment will be. Unless a country chooses to deal with the pain of cutting spending and raising revenues, eventually there is a true crisis, resulting in massive dislocations and losses. Bond holders lose a large percentage (if not all) of their investments. That moment is often precipitated by a credit or banking crisis. And when the banking system freezes up, businesses lose access to capital, and the recession can turn into a depression if not dealt with aggressively. But that means pain."
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,329
126
I understand gas is a global commodity and can be sold to the "highest bidder" but at what point of hurting the US economy with higher and higher gas prices should something be done about it (don't know what, just "something")?

Selling our excess refining capability does not drive up the price of US gas.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
I understand gas is a global commodity and can be sold to the "highest bidder" but at what point of hurting the US economy with higher and higher gas prices should something be done about it (don't know what, just "something")?
Like any commodity, gas is worth what people are willing to pay for it. If gas was not exportable, refiners would have to sell it for less than market value and someone's gas would not get sold. I suspect refiners would simply close down some capacity and gas would stabilize at about the same price it is now; artificially constraining the market seldom works as envisioned. In this case we might get cheaper oil (assuming the oil too is not exportable) as we'd need to buy very slightly less on the open market, but we might also get more expensive gas as refiners would have to use catalysts to engineer yield of each distillate to exactly meet domestic demand.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
Selling our excess refining capability does not drive up the price of US gas.

No, but if the refiners, as some articles are stating, are selling NON-EXCESS capacity to the highest bidder, then it does. Keep in mind that a weak US dollar, possibly weakened by massive money printing, allows other countries to buy our "cheap gas". I'm not saying they are, but there have been articles that are stating that the refiners are selling to the highest bidder.
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,329
126
Nope, mcowned, you just told another lie. http://www.chicagogasprices.com/ This is why I said I think you have borderline personality disorder. Your pathological lying you do without even realizing you're not telling the truth.You can't really say something should be done in this case without offering an idea. What can be done? Drill more? Annex Canada's oil sands? Market forces are certainly at play here, they are just not the only forces at play, but as people pay more in 2011 for gas than ever before, they also continue to buy more fuel efficient cars. They are slowly, like a stubborn horse led to water, drinking. Very slowly...

It is still a global commodity. As we use less others are (and will be) using more.

The best we can do is to stop sending so much money out of the states.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
1-9-12

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-...BzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3

Will the Iran Sanctions Spark an International Oil Crisis?


Western governments are trying to stop Iran's nuclear program by cutting off its oil revenue. Will they tank the world economy in the process?


As if the global economy wasn't chaotic enough these days, the escalating conflict over Iran's nuclear ambitions is now threatening to wreak havoc on the world oil market.



On December 31, President Obama signed into law the toughest American sanctions yet against Tehran, which aim to cut off the country's petroleum revenue by penalizing financial institutions that do business with the country's central bank. Days later, Europe's leaders agreed in principal to an embargo on Iranian crude.

Of course, there are consequences to pushing the world's third largest oil exporter out of the energy market. If the sanctions work, crude supplies will get tighter. Meanwhile, Iran's military leadership, predictably irate the West's economic assault, has threatened to cut off a crucial oil shipping route in retaliation. If they do, it could send prices spiraling even higher.

Are we heading for a new era $150 oil and a new global recession?

Why is this coming to a head now?

Congress decided it was tired of the Obama administration's Iran policy.

The Obama administration has been tussling with Congress for months over how best to deal with Iran's apparent desire to build a nuclear weapon. Back in August, a bipartisan group of 92 senators cosigned a letter urging Obama to hand down sanctions on the country's central bank. The White House resisted out of concerns that a unilateral attempt to cripple Iran's economy would alienate countries such as China and Russia, which do significant business with Tehran, and could destabilize the oil market.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Not sure it this is nationwide or just Illinois statewide but order was given to secure all unused gas pumps either by ripping them out or boarding them up tightly.

They are getting ready.

I asked dmcowen674 for corobboration of this order and he has not provided any.
admin allisolm
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
13,306
3
0
Not sure it this is nationwide or just Illinois statewide but order was given to secure all unused gas pumps either by ripping them out or boarding them up tightly.

They are getting ready.
Wow, yet more lies and no link. This is pure 100% trolling. As such I have reported you again. You really need to be kicked out of this thread for rampant trolling, mcowned. This isn't even tolerated in OT, you need to talk a walk and stop poisoning.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
1-10-2012

http://seekingalpha.com/article/318...-could-send-oil-prices-above-200?source=yahoo

The Conflict With Iran Could Send Oil Prices Above $200


A Conflict Of Historical Importance

Conflict with Iran has been brewing for decades, from the time U.S. and U.K. intelligence agencies coordinated the overthrow of the democratically elected Iranian Prime Minister Mossadegh in 1953 for nationalizing the oil industry, all the way to the Iranian revolution in 1979 that overthrew the shah.

Any sign of disruption of the world’s seaborne oil trade will have a dramatic and sudden rise in prices, which could send prices into the $200 range. If the tension between the U.S. and its allies and Iran and its allies escalates, oil prices may indeed go parabolic.
 
Jul 10, 2007
12,041
3
0
Just saw the local news story that stated that 2011 was the most expensive year ever for US gas and 2012 is expected to be worse.

'tis true. according to my spreadsheet, on average i spent...
$3.52 per gallon in 2011.
$2.73 per gallon in 2010.
$2.50 per gallon in 2009
$3.30 per gallon in 2008
 

xBiffx

Diamond Member
Aug 22, 2011
8,232
2
0
'tis true. according to my spreadsheet, on average i spent...
$3.52 per gallon in 2011.
$2.73 per gallon in 2010.
$2.50 per gallon in 2009
$3.30 per gallon in 2008

I thinks its cool you kept real world numbers. Better IMO than the made up garbage some are posting here.

The only thing I have to say is that likely the spike in price in 2011 was due more in part to the value of the dollar than the value of oil. The dollar is worth 30% less by some estimates and since oil is traded in dollars, the price of gas is likely to go up by the same amount the dollar went down. If you do the math on the difference you saw from 2010 to 2011 you almost exactly come up with 30% difference. Math is sweet, sometimes.
 

monovillage

Diamond Member
Jul 3, 2008
8,444
1
0
Wonder why? Just another reason for the Obama fuel prices skyrocketing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/10/b...-fines-for-not-using-unavailable-biofuel.html

"When the companies that supply motor fuel close the books on 2011, they will pay about $6.8 million in penalties to the Treasury because they failed to mix a special type of biofuel into their gasoline and diesel as required by law. But there was none to be had. Outside a handful of laboratories and workshops, the ingredient, cellulosic biofuel, does not exist."
 

desy

Diamond Member
Jan 13, 2000
5,442
211
106
Yes a lot of people forget about $ devaluation as compared to global commodity and because of this everything has gone up.
The only reason people really notice fuel over everything else is because its broadcast on everystreet corner you see everyday, where say car batteries only get noticed when you have infrequently have to get one
Fuel used to be about 5% of my income now its creeped to 7%