Good article on how to protect investment portfolio from inflation/deflation

[StageLeft]

Linktastic

I've been looking for this info for a while and here it is in a single spot.

I realize right now I'm matching their Goldilocks scenario pretty closely, although I have all US equities instead of US/foreign, for better or worse.

 

[soccerballtux]

Good, thanks.

 

[PJABBER]

That is a good article, thanks for posting it.

Even if the portfolio structuring recommendations are good, you still have to decide which is going to be the most likely scenario of the three and the crystal ball is cloudy right now.

 

[Moonbeam]

This is fantastic. Now please go out there and find the answers to some other anxieties I have.

I want to be better in bed so I need some sort of salve or maybe ground lion testicles.

I want to live forever so I know there's some drugs I should be taking.

I need a pill also to lose weight.

I'm not sure which is the best laundry soap and only the best will work for me.

I need the best meet my perfect mate site. I want a perfect wife.

I want to know the name of the best witch doctor in Africa who can tell me the future.

But thanks for that site. My dreams are gonna cost me money.

I did find a book that says the kingdom of heaven is within me, but hell, I know better than that. Real happiness is in things. Fears are like itches. Scratching them is the joy of living.

By the way, have you checked out Bob Brinker's Money Talk web site. He has tons of stuff I think you might like. Lots of good books too.

 

[polarmystery]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
This is fantastic. Now please go out there and find the answers to some other anxieties I have.

I want to be better in bed so I need some sort of salve or maybe ground lion testicles.

I want to live forever so I know there's some drugs I should be taking.

I need a pill also to lose weight.

I'm not sure which is the best laundry soap and only the best will work for me.

I need the best meet my perfect mate site. I want a perfect wife.

I want to know the name of the best witch doctor in Africa who can tell me the future.

But thanks for that site. My dreams are gonna cost me money.

I did find a book that says the kingdom of heaven is within me, but hell, I know better than that. Real happiness is in things. Fears are like itches. Scratching them is the joy of living.

By the way, have you checked out Bob Brinker's Money Talk web site. He has tons of stuff I think you might like. Lots of good books too.

wut?

 

[PJABBER]

Originally posted by: polarmystery

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
This is fantastic. Now please go out there and find the answers to some other anxieties I have.

I want to be better in bed so I need some sort of salve or maybe ground lion testicles.

I want to live forever so I know there's some drugs I should be taking.

I need a pill also to lose weight.

I'm not sure which is the best laundry soap and only the best will work for me.

I need the best meet my perfect mate site. I want a perfect wife.

I want to know the name of the best witch doctor in Africa who can tell me the future.

But thanks for that site. My dreams are gonna cost me money.

I did find a book that says the kingdom of heaven is within me, but hell, I know better than that. Real happiness is in things. Fears are like itches. Scratching them is the joy of living.

By the way, have you checked out Bob Brinker's Money Talk web site. He has tons of stuff I think you might like. Lots of good books too.

wut?

Moonbeam is channeling money right now as well as some typical sources of personal happiness, which he is running in deficit at the moment. Moonbeam's posts are flashes of brilliance and insight into the human condition and an extraordinary stream of consciousness brought to earth by an all too human bitterness and less than focused anger.

I am inevitably going to be wrong and contradictory, so that is going to be my first and last attempt at trying to explain what he means or intends. Take what you can from what he offers, if you can. His commentary stands alone in the desolate wasteland that is P&N.

I don't listen to Brinker's show but glancing at his suggested reading list he is referencing many of the books I enjoyed and believe offer great insight toward understanding investing and determining business value. It is an excellent reading list.

Bob Brinker's Recommended Reading List

 

[Moonbeam]

PJ, I run a number of businesses around here and one of them is poking Skoorb in the ass. I worry a lot he'll get so focused on money he'll forget to live. I wanted him to know that his weakness makes him prey just as all those other human worries do with others.

We seem to have this religious tendency to become true believers of things that offer hope in the satisfaction of our fears.

I remember the time I had 20 cents to my name and everything I needed to live just fell in my lap like mana from the sky. Then I got a check for 1300 dollars and lived in Europe for two years. When you have nothing your body gets light. Being rich is an attitude.

 

[StageLeft]

We know you love us Moonbeam.

 

[mshan]

For the truly long-term investor (10 - 20 + year time horizon), I personally think one should ignore the noise and invest in a 100% stock portfolio of wisely chosen mutual funds.

The financial panic of last fall and this spring allowed many value and contrarian growth mutual fund managers to load up on very high quality stocks at great prices, and hopefully those latent returns will be realized over next 5 years or so.

It would be like choosing stocks in say 1973 or 1974 and reaping gains in late 80s or 90s.

If you read through quarterly reports of chosen mutual funds from last winter and this spring, you can get a better idea of where they placed there bets and potential returns (say 20% per annum if financial crisis has been resolved in next 5 years and more normal lending starts to occur).

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: mshan
For the truly long-term investor (10 - 20 + year time horizon), I personally think one should ignore the noise and invest in a 100% stock portfolio of wisely chosen mutual funds.

The financial panic of last fall and this spring allowed many value and contrarian growth mutual fund managers to load up on very high quality stocks at great prices, and hopefully those latent returns will be realized over next 5 years or so.

It would be like choosing stocks in say 1973 or 1974 and reaping gains in late 80s or 90s.

If you read through quarterly reports of chosen mutual funds from last winter and this spring, you can get a better idea of where they placed there bets and potential returns (say 20% per annum if financial crisis has been resolved in next 5 years and more normal lending starts to occur).

http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif

or it could be like buying on the -50% dip in 1929 only to lose 80% of your money in the proceeding 2 years.

 

[mshan]

Despite his political tone deafness, Douglas Holtz-Eaken, McCain's chief economic advisor, was probably, broadly speaking, correct when he said the U. S. economy is fundamentally sound during last year's presidential campaign.

A former European central banker (London Banker blog, from one of his Sept. or October postings last year, I think), who despite seeming to be a Socialist, said the same thing last fall. Once the yolk of this financial mess has been lifted and more normal private sector lending occurs, fundamentals of U. S. economy are probably quite sound.

With all of the cost cutting, etc. corporations did during turmoil of last fall and this spring, it would not be out of question for sustained multi-year bull (I read somewhere 10 - 15 years) could emerge down the road once residue of financial trickery has been extricated from U. S. economy and global growth starts to occur again.

http://selectedfunds.com/pdf/SFSuccInv4Q08.pdf

 

[mshan]

"There is a fundamentally healthy economy in America ? somewhere underneath all the financial excess and chicanery and all the financial/oil/military/healthcare/developer corruption of local, state and federal politics. It will be a painful and slow process to kill off the metastasising cancerous growths on the economy, but if Americans achieved that, they could embrace a healthier and more productive and more prosperous future."

http://londonbanker.blogspot.c...-paulson-plan-for.html

 

[Special K]

Originally posted by: mshan
Despite his political tone deafness, Douglas Holtz-Eaken, McCain's chief economic advisor, was probably, broadly speaking, correct when he said the U. S. economy is fundamentally sound during last year's presidential campaign.

A former European central banker (London Banker blog, from one of his Sept. or October postings last year, I think), who despite seeming to be a Socialist, said the same thing last fall. Once the yolk of this financial mess has been lifted and more normal lending occurs, fundamentals of U. S. economy are probably quite sound.

With all of the cost cutting, etc. corporations did during turmoil of last fall and this spring, it would not be out of question for sustained multi-year bull (I read somewhere 10 - 15 years) could emerge down the road once residue of financial trickery has been extricated from U. S. economy and global growth starts to occur again.

http://selectedfunds.com/pdf/SFSuccInv4Q08.pdf

Could be, but I still think we'll emerge from this recession the same way we've emerged from previous recessions - by creating a new asset bubble that eventually leads to a new recession.

S&L crisis -> internet bubble -> real estate bubble -> ??? (green energy bubble perhaps?)

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: mshan
Despite his political tone deafness, Douglas Holtz-Eaken, McCain's chief economic advisor, was probably, broadly speaking, correct when he said the U. S. economy is fundamentally sound during last year's presidential campaign.

A former European central banker (London Banker blog, from one of his Sept. or October postings last year, I think), who despite seeming to be a Socialist, said the same thing last fall. Once the yolk of this financial mess has been lifted and more normal lending occurs, fundamentals of U. S. economy are probably quite sound.

With all of the cost cutting, etc. corporations did during turmoil of last fall and this spring, it would not be out of question for sustained multi-year bull (I read somewhere 10 - 15 years) could emerge down the road once residue of financial trickery has been extricated from U. S. economy and global growth starts to occur again.

http://selectedfunds.com/pdf/SFSuccInv4Q08.pdf

Could be, but I still think we'll emerge from this recession the same way we've emerged from previous recessions - by creating a new asset bubble that eventually leads to a new recession.

S&L crisis -> internet bubble -> real estate bubble -> ??? (green energy bubble perhaps?)

See Slew Foot sig. Government Bubble, the worst type (and hardest to pop).