Gilbert Burnham Hopkins University

[randym431]

Gilbert Burnham from the Hopkins University was on cspan taking questions this morning 10/12. Don?t know if cspan replays (they should) this but this was sure an interesting show. I felt sorry for this guy Gilbert Burnham because he surely has no political agenda. He's an "just the facts, please" kinda guy and usually does survey on health issues like HIV.
But people were calling in and giving him hell directed at Bush. He was great at keeping the focus on the facts, and how they go about doing this kind of survey. 655,000 is and was the figure on Iraq civilian deaths. Like Gilbert Burnham stated, people don?t lie on deaths (in the survey). And this figure is not surprising. He went to the morgues, door to door and actually used the US governments own statistics in this survey.

So Bush tries to downplay and dismiss this important statistic on civilian deaths. Why?

As one caller asked, why are they (Bush) so concerned about life in a petri dish and not so with human life? Good point! (I say)

I hope cspan replays this (or on their web) because it was an eye opener for both sides.

 

[ayabe]

Well yesterday he just stated that it's not a credible study. That's what bothers me about Bush, he hasn't read the study, and isn't a statistician, but feels that he can create parallel "truths" by just saying he doesn't believe in something.

 

[alchemize]

People don't lie on deaths? Why not? Please - the middle east is fully of liars. There's even an arabic word for when it is permissable to lie in Islam - when you are deceiving non-believers or for Jihad. The word escapse me now, something like Taquira or taquito or something 😀

Edit: I think this is it: Takeyya

article

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: alchemize
People don't lie on deaths? Why not? Please - the middle east is fully of liars. There's even an arabic word for when it is permissable to lie in Islam - when you are deceiving non-believers or for Jihad. The word escapse me now, something like Taquira or taquito or something 😀

Edit: I think this is it: Takeyya

article

So? That doesn't mean they ARE lying...all it means is that they COULD be lying. But guess what there, chief, OUR government could be lying too, we have just as many liars as the Middle East, and although their faith allegedly frowns on it, most politicians (including and especially the Bush administration) seem to have developed their own justification from somewhere.

But the actual numbers aren't the real problem, the problem is the fuzziness of the estimates. It's not that we don't KNOW how many Iraqis have died as a result of our invasion of their country, it's that we simply don't CARE. You don't care, Bush doesn't care, his supporters don't care, and I'm not really convinced his opponents care either. We know, down to the last person, how many people died on 9/11...but when it comes to the war on Iraq, people throw around numbers seemingly at random. It can't be THAT hard to figure out the real number, but we simply don't care.

 

[randym431]

Thanks. I wish I would have recorded this. I could have put some of it up on youtube for anyone interested. Dead bodies in a morgue, I guess, "could" lie...?

Probably right, Bush probably did not read it. Or how they even do their stats. That would make sense for his response.

 

[techs]

Yeah, I don't believe the number 655,000.
I think it might only be about 500,000.
After all ONLY a half million dead due to the US invasion proves how wonderful it was to the Iraqi people.
And, hey, its only been 5 years. And since the US is planning on being their another 5 years thats only 1 million dead Iraqis. Heck, thats only 1 out of every 20.

 

[EagleKeeper]

The Iraqi people are having their own civil war.

Who are we to deny them such an opportunity.

20-30 years of repressed hatred is being allowed to boil to the surface.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Let's say it's a mere 100,000. Iraq has a total population of 26,000,000, less than one tenth of the US. Imagine if we had suffered a million deaths during and after an invasion by a foreign enemy, and you start to understand the motivations of the insurgents. If the Hopkins study is right, you're talking about something more like the equivalent of seven million Americans dead, most of whom are innocent civilians, including hundreds of thousands of women and children.

 

[CaptnKirk]

We did exagerated 'Body-Counts' in 'Nam to show how we were suceeding by killing hundreds or thousands every day.

Today's 'official' doctrine is "We don't do Body-Counts"

However it seems that with the extent of fighting and the scope of our activity that 600K number is feasable
considering all the munition that have been expended and how severly out resources have been depleted.

With at least 1,400 vehicles broken down, over 400 A1A tanks out of commission and waiting for repairs
and no budget to move forward to make those desparately needed repairs to these assets,
I would sure as hell hope that our equipment and weapons were more efficient than the Pentagon is willing to conceed.

In an 'Insurgency' every citizen is a soldier, and every soldier is a citizen of that countries population.

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: DonVito
Let's say it's a mere 100,000. Iraq has a total population of 26,000,000, less than one tenth of the US. Imagine if we had suffered a million deaths during and after an invasion by a foreign enemy, and you start to understand the motivations of the insurgents. If the Hopkins study is right, you're talking about something more like the equivalent of seven million Americans dead, most of whom are innocent civilians, including hundreds of thousands of women and children.

Well, your argument might have merit, if the vast majority of the killings weren't perpetrated by themselves against themselves.

We've been invaded by Canada - time to start killing anyone from Ohio!

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: alchemize
People don't lie on deaths? Why not? Please - the middle east is fully of liars. There's even an arabic word for when it is permissable to lie in Islam - when you are deceiving non-believers or for Jihad. The word escapse me now, something like Taquira or taquito or something 😀

Edit: I think this is it: Takeyya

article

So? That doesn't mean they ARE lying...all it means is that they COULD be lying. But guess what there, chief, OUR government could be lying too, we have just as many liars as the Middle East, and although their faith allegedly frowns on it, most politicians (including and especially the Bush administration) seem to have developed their own justification from somewhere.

But the actual numbers aren't the real problem, the problem is the fuzziness of the estimates. It's not that we don't KNOW how many Iraqis have died as a result of our invasion of their country, it's that we simply don't CARE. You don't care, Bush doesn't care, his supporters don't care, and I'm not really convinced his opponents care either. We know, down to the last person, how many people died on 9/11...but when it comes to the war on Iraq, people throw around numbers seemingly at random. It can't be THAT hard to figure out the real number, but we simply don't care.

I did care. I stopped caring when they started murdering each other wholesale. Now I think the only way they will learn to live in peace is to have their own civil war, probably a regional war, shiites against sunni. I'd rather that than a war of islam vs. the west.

 

[ayabe]

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: alchemize
People don't lie on deaths? Why not? Please - the middle east is fully of liars. There's even an arabic word for when it is permissable to lie in Islam - when you are deceiving non-believers or for Jihad. The word escapse me now, something like Taquira or taquito or something 😀

Edit: I think this is it: Takeyya

article

So? That doesn't mean they ARE lying...all it means is that they COULD be lying. But guess what there, chief, OUR government could be lying too, we have just as many liars as the Middle East, and although their faith allegedly frowns on it, most politicians (including and especially the Bush administration) seem to have developed their own justification from somewhere.

But the actual numbers aren't the real problem, the problem is the fuzziness of the estimates. It's not that we don't KNOW how many Iraqis have died as a result of our invasion of their country, it's that we simply don't CARE. You don't care, Bush doesn't care, his supporters don't care, and I'm not really convinced his opponents care either. We know, down to the last person, how many people died on 9/11...but when it comes to the war on Iraq, people throw around numbers seemingly at random. It can't be THAT hard to figure out the real number, but we simply don't care.

I did care. I stopped caring when they started murdering each other wholesale. Now I think the only way they will learn to live in peace is to have their own civil war, probably a regional war, shiites against sunni. I'd rather that than a war of islam vs. the west.

Yeah but we're still going to be blamed for this, which will only ensure even more hatred being heaped upon us.

 

[DealMonkey]

Originally posted by: alchemize
I did care. I stopped caring when they started murdering each other wholesale. Now I think the only way they will learn to live in peace is to have their own civil war, probably a regional war, shiites against sunni. I'd rather that than a war of islam vs. the west.

Hell, in that case, perhaps our 100,000+ soldiers should pack up and leave? The Iraqis could murder each other much more efficiently without our interference, right?

Originally posted by: alchemize
Well, your argument might have merit, if the vast majority of the killings weren't perpetrated by themselves against themselves.

It's no where near the "vast majority." It's more like 50-50. Half killed by military action and half killed during the civil war thus far.

 

[CPA]

wait a minute....he went door to door....in Iraq....asking about number of deaths....yeah, okay, I believe that.

 

[1EZduzit]

Originally posted by: CPA
wait a minute....he went door to door....in Iraq....asking about number of deaths....yeah, okay, I believe that.

Since "we don't do body counts", Bush can't even begin to mount a credible defesne against such charges. LOL, just more of his short-sighted lying that is finally begining to catch up with him. Of course, his administration and the 25% that still support him could care less about the true number. They're just upset that someone lies better then they do. :laugh:

 

[ayabe]

The bottom line is that Saddam killed 300,000 +/- over a 20 year period, on our current pace, let's say 3,000 a month for arguments sake, his death total would be surpassed in less than half that time if the level of violence continues.

This brings up whether the Iraqi's are really better off now than they were prior to the invastion.

 

[zephyrprime]

Originally posted by: CPA
wait a minute....he went door to door....in Iraq....asking about number of deaths....yeah, okay, I believe that.

"The study uses a scientific method known as "cluster sampling." In 87 percent of the deaths, the researchers requested death certificates, and more than 90 percent of the surveyed households produced the death certificates. Violence accounted for 601,000 deaths, and disease and destruction of civilian infrastructure accounted for 54,000 deaths. The violent deaths are attributed to gunshot wounds, coalition air strikes, and car bombs."

Yeah, I guess all those death certificates were forged and printed up by the Iraqis on their laser printers to sucker researchers. You just don't like the facts, admit it.

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: DealMonkey

Originally posted by: alchemize
I did care. I stopped caring when they started murdering each other wholesale. Now I think the only way they will learn to live in peace is to have their own civil war, probably a regional war, shiites against sunni. I'd rather that than a war of islam vs. the west.

Hell, in that case, perhaps our 100,000+ soldiers should pack up and leave? The Iraqis could murder each other much more efficiently without our interference, right?

Originally posted by: alchemize
Well, your argument might have merit, if the vast majority of the killings weren't perpetrated by themselves against themselves.

It's no where near the "vast majority." It's more like 50-50. Half killed by military action and half killed during the civil war thus far.

First, arm the Kurds and the Sunni to their teeth. Then pack up and move out.

As far as the ratios - I don't think you have any evidence to support that. Of course, neither do I 😀

 

[CaptnKirk]

Guardian

 

[FirstAssembliesofGod]

what's the range? what's the certainty?

Better yet, what is the actual collected data and I?ll run my own stats on them; also, what was the sample size? Where was the sample from? Does this reflect the population? How was the sample taken? Who took the sample? Are there any questionable translations? Are there any potently misunderstood questions? What was the death rate to violence before we got there?

There are 3 kinds of lies:
Lies
Dammed lies
And statistics.

I find these stats hard to believe without 1.) independent verification and 2.) having the set of statistical data and the procedures used in it?s collection.

 

[randym431]

Well, not to bump this, but again today 10/13 on c-span, there was another guest that gave more insight on whats going on in Iraq. Aparisim "Bobby" Ghosh, a time mag correspondent on his way back to Baghdad. He knows Iraq and Baghdad.

One caller ask him "why doesn?t the press tell some of the good things happening over there, its always the bad news. What about the schools being built".

So this guest answers. And whats so sad is it just shows how Americans are just so blinded and mislead over this war. But the guest answers "yes the military does try to do as much good as they can. But caller, you mention schools, if a school is built or more so repaired, no parent will send their child to it. There are hundreds and thousands killed every day. No parent is going to send their child to school when there are dead bodies in the school yard and more being killed.
And there are no teachers willing to teach at such schools. Anyone with any training or ability to do things like teach, have already fled the country. So you can try to talk about the good, like rebuilding a school, but then it leads to the bad. The killing continues daily and no one is going to use the schools."

And I have to give this c-span guest, Mr Ghosh (from Iraq I would guess), I have to give him credit for keeping his professional wits about him and not saying to the caller, you F*Kin idiot, if there were masses of roaming groups in your neighborhood killing hundreds of people, men, women, kids, would YOU send you kid to school that day?

Truly there are still a lot of Americans with NO CLUE to the reality over there.

The guest was also asked about the figure of 655,000 deaths. He said it was probably pretty accurate. Much more accurate that the Bush admin estimate of 30,000.

Another caller made a point that is worth repeating. Our invasion of Iraq has now fueled a whole new generation of angry young people that will carry on for countless years to come. They hate America.

Thanks George? Mission accomplished! (my addition)

Another great c-span...

 

[LunarRay]

I don't know about the deaths in Iraq.. but I did a statistical analysis of Congress, the Executive and Judicial and have concluded that we are without representation, direction and the ability to grant cert...

 

[Termagant]

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: DonVito
Let's say it's a mere 100,000. Iraq has a total population of 26,000,000, less than one tenth of the US. Imagine if we had suffered a million deaths during and after an invasion by a foreign enemy, and you start to understand the motivations of the insurgents. If the Hopkins study is right, you're talking about something more like the equivalent of seven million Americans dead, most of whom are innocent civilians, including hundreds of thousands of women and children.

Well, your argument might have merit, if the vast majority of the killings weren't perpetrated by themselves against themselves.

We've been invaded by Canada - time to start killing anyone from Ohio!

I see the point of your Ohio joke. But I think it is in poor taste considering the US invaded Iraq after 9/11 was committed by non-Iraqis.

 

[aidanjm]

Originally posted by: alchemize
People don't lie on deaths? Why not? Please - the middle east is fully of liars

apparently the researchers were able to track down/ verify death certificates for 4 out of 5 of the deaths included in the study. Which is a very good figure for a country under civil war.