Originally posted by: housecat
i'd never recommend buying old technology, no matter how pretty the new wrapping or the bow on top.
if your favorite games are opengl its hands down Nvidia.. so 6600gt.
if your favorite games are dx or a combination.. its still Nvidia but you'd have reason to look around at ATIs current stuff. but stilll... 6600gt.. its available today in box pcie and agp forms. sli possiblity for pcie form. SM3.0, useless or not on a 6600 is still there..
x800 pcie is still on paper, and agp might not ever come out.
most ppl agree if you are looking for a card from the current offerings, you can pretty much take a Nvidia card from top to bottom and have a great card with no regrets.
there are possible regrettable qualities to current ati cards.. no sli possibility, no sm3.0, worse OGL support (sounds like this one might be important to you), historically lower quality drivers... to put this in a positive light instead: nvidia has had a great track record of game compatibility and performance between OGL/D3D within their drivers even when their cards sucked (FX series), and driver "hacks" were needed to keep up.
To sum it up, take any card from NV these days from 6200-6800 and you cant go wrong.
So if the ATI cards were 2x faster than the Nvidia couterparts, but were still based off the R300 core, you wouldn't buy an ATI card? I'm tired of this "old technology" argument. The card performs. Does it matter that it's based off an old core? I'm sure if the latest gen ATI GPUs had SM3.0, we wouldn't hear much of this old technology griping. As it stands, you either want SM3.0, or you don't.
Now, let's address the OP's question.
SM3.0 will not be required for gameplay. If you're going for a two year upgrade, you can be pretty certain that no game in 2 years will require SM3.0, as there will need to be backwards compatibility for older hardware to run the games. It also will not improve image quality at all. SM3.0 is meant to be more efficient, so as games start incorporating SM3.0, cards that can use it may enjoy a small performance boost. The only game I can think of off the top of my head that currently does this is Farcry, on a limited scale. I think there are some old Anandtech articles on this, so check them out. ATI is still pretty much competitive with SM3.0 enabled Nvidia cards in that game. You'll have to determine yourself whether or not you believe games will come out within the next year or two that will make more heavy use of SM3.0, and decide if that will be beneficial to you and something you'll want for the long run. To me personally, SM3.0 was a non issue in determining which card I wanted to buy, but I still ended up with an eVGA 6800NU anyway
[e-penis]Got it for $200, and it softmods perfectly. The memory OCs to 900mhz, so I'm running pretty close to a 128MB 6800GT, and saved >$100 in the process. Now the only question is longevity

[/e-penis]
That was a very pleasant purchase for me.
Anywho...I did a quick check on Newegg for PCI-e prices for the 6600GT. It seems that there is a Gigabyte model going for around $185 shipped. Not bad. It will probably take the x800 a couple weeks after hitting shelf to stabilize down to its MSRP price of $250. I figure if you overclock the x800, it will start to pull away from an overclocked 6600GT, due to the extra bandwidth. I'm not sure if the x800 will have a 256MB model right off the bat. I'm pretty sure it's only 128MB for now, like the 6600GTs.
Anandtech is showing the x800 having a 1-19% advantage over the 6600GT, with the lone exception of Doom3 with a 22% disadvantage. Use this to determine if the ~$70 price delta is worth it for you. I'd say it's not, and to go with the 6600GT.