gambling on the NFL

[desy]

OK so far this season I've got 102 games picked right and 61 wrong.
So i'm 63% right on the season.
Typical of last season too. So is this enough of an edge I could make money betting on sports somewhere?

 

[Beau]

by that statistic, if you bet equally on all games, wouldn't you have made a 13% net increase?

 

[amoeba]

no. that doesn't prove anything.

example. lets say in your 163 games, I pick the favorite every single time.

I can probably get as many if not more games right than you did.

But since the payout is not 1 to 1 if I pick favorites then I'm still losing money.

To win money consistently, you have to beat vegas odds, which I find to be very improbable.

They hire thousands of analysts and workers that interview people closest to the players to get their line.

Unless you have inside info, you will not make money consistently.

 

[desy]

Yep but the spread plays into it, so I don't know if there is anywhere where you can get a 1:1 ratio
As I don't really do sports betting I'm not too sure how it works.

 

[amoeba]

if you don't know too much about it then you probably should not get in to it.

I'll give you a math problem.

lets say I give you a die.

every time you roll the numbers 1-5, I give you 1 dollar.

every time you roll the number 6, you give me 7 dollars.

you might get the right number and "win" 5/6 times, but over long term, you will lose money.

 

[desy]

Yeah I figured it wasn't so simple, the payouts and odds need to be tracked. I was hoping it was simple like roulette, Red or Black with slight edge to the house with 0 and 00
I'm not that keen on making a career out of it.
The football pool I'm in and near the top, out of 40 players, takes the number of games per week and you assign a number against the game 1-14 games and add the wins and subtract the loses. you have to use every number once and only once , so you bet 14 points on the sure things and say 1 point against toss-up games or potential upsets.

 

[amoeba]

Those of you that do sports betting, correct me if I'm wrong.

I believe that it is a bit different from roulette.

you aren't really going against the house because you can bet on either team. The house is really just making money off of the administrative fees.

As such, the house is obligated to give a line that is as even expected value as possible.

In other words, its like gambling on a coin flip but paying the house a percentage of your winnings every time you win.

 

[Brackis]

I have a small amount of experience (bad experience) betting online at Intertops.com
Basically you have to beat the spread, but not only that because the payouts for beating the spread are only 1.9ish:1 rather than 2:1.
As someone who has a cornucopia of knowledge with college football, I still managed to blows a few hundred dollars simply because of the nature of how some games, teams, REFS etc.. affect the outcome of a game.
Since then I have decided to stay away from sports bets no matter how much of a "lock" a bet looks like, and stuck to bonus hunting online.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Here (Las Vegas) as an example for last night.

Patriots were giving up 3.5 points.

If the Pats won by three and you chose them, you would lose.
If the Pats won by 4 or more, you would win $1 for every $1.10 that you bet

The over/under was 53.

The people that bet the under were paid as above.
Those that bet the over, lost.

Standard payout is $1/$1.10 taking into account the point spread (for FB and BB).
Over/Unders do not have a point spread, but the payout may vary slightly.
The line may also adjust the payout along with the spread.

In LV we are able to bet the first half, second half as well as the comlpete game for NFL.
when the NBA season has settled down, the same will apply.
NCAA at times will have totals and halfs depending on the game.

 

[theGlove]

Originally posted by: EagleKeeper
Here (Las Vegas) as an example for last night.

Patriots were giving up 3.5 points.

If the Pats won by three and you chose them, you would lose.
If the Pats won by 4 or more, you would win $1 for every $1.10 that you bet

The over/under was 53.

The people that bet the under were paid as above.
Those that bet the over, lost.

Standard payout is $1/$1.10 taking into account the point spread (for FB and BB).
Over/Unders do not have a point spread, but the payout may vary slightly.
The line may also adjust the payout along with the spread.

In LV we are able to bet the first half, second half as well as the comlpete game for NFL.
when the NBA season has settled down, the same will apply.
NCAA at times will have totals and halfs depending on the game.

what does over/under mean?

 

[PricklyPete]

Originally posted by: amoeba
if you don't know too much about it then you probably should not get in to it.

I'll give you a math problem.

lets say I give you a die.

every time you roll the numbers 1-5, I give you 1 dollar.

every time you roll the number 6, you give me 7 dollars.

you might get the right number and "win" 5/6 times, but over long term, you will lose money.

Take this advice and don't try to make money doing it...you're most likely going to loose it. Just do it as an occasionally fun thing to do with friends.