Gambling experts: what's going on here?

[Mark R]

I know nothing about betting, but came across this thread on a 'money-saving' forum (yeah, betting forum, or something about money saving!)

Anyway, there's a whole load of people who think they've seen an opportunity.

Text

I haven't the faintest what is:
1. Going on?
2. What they think they are exploiting?
3. How they think they can make money from this.

Can anyone explain?

I do know that it all ended in disaster - with several people in that thread out several 10s of K.

 

[mugs]

I... don't understand the words they are saying.

But I'm curious because you said a bunch of people lost a lot of money, and it looks like they thought they had a sure thing...

 

[waggy]

hahah no clue. buit looks like they were makeing mass bets on players of a game. when most of those players were not going to play? even though they werent playing they still lose on the bet.

would have liked to read hte outcome heh

 

[mugs]

Originally posted by: waggy
hahah no clue. buit looks like they were makeing mass bets on players of a game. when most of those players were not going to play? even though they werent playing they still lose on the bet.

would have liked to read hte outcome heh

No, it looks to me like the bets got voided when the players didn't play... but because some guys didn't play, they didn't have all possible goal scorers covered, so it wasn't a sure thing.

 

[Mark R]

I think I've worked it out. They're using an online 'bet exchange' where customers can buy or sell bets to each other.

There is a market for bets on who scores first in the big game.
Odds on the market vary from player to player, but the maximum is something like 15:1 - whereas there are 15 players in each squad.

These guys worked out was that if you sell 1 bet for each player, you take $30, and face a max payout of $15. Instant profit !?!

What they didn't realise was that if a player hasn't come onto the field at the time of the first score, then all bets on that player are cancelled and must be refunded.

Looks like someone scored very early on in the game before any substitues were called. As a result, there were a huge number of bets that had to be cancelled and refunded - and the people selling the bets couldn't afford to payout the prizes and the refunds.